Micron Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value Estimates

Micron Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value Estimates | Micron Stock ($MU) Deep Dive

Рет қаралды 2,016

Жыл бұрын

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Is Micron ($MU) Stock a Buy? In this video, I go through my stock analysis for Micron and share the key parts of my research on the company. This video will be slightly different to usual stock analysis videos as Micron isn't really a long term compounder, so I'll be analysing Micron as a 50c dollar kind of investment with a shorter holding period. I start by discussing Micron's memory business and my thoughts on their future. I also talk about a slightly different way of looking at 'valuation' taken from many great value investors, which is valuing the business based on its liquidation value, as well as the relationship between book value and intrinsic value. As always, I'm just some dude on the internet trying to predict the future, so please don't take my figures or opinions as buy or sell recommendations.
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First Micron Video: • Mohnish Pabrai on his ...
How to use ROCE Spreadsheet Video: • My Checklist for Findi...
If you're interested, here's the link to download my ROCE and Reinvestment Rate Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Intrinsic Value Spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
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Book List Below:
Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green - amzn.to/3iCp8Pu
The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel - amzn.to/3EYQuXC
The Dhando Investor by Mohnish Pabrai - amzn.to/3ulAqtM
Rule 1 by Phil Town - amzn.to/3F3MJQJ
One Up on Wall St by Peter Lynch - amzn.to/3uoqCzo
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham - amzn.to/3F0kGkX
Influence by Robert Cialdini - amzn.to/3ulF2jJ
Poor Charlies Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T Munger - amzn.to/3B3UbKg
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Music: Lakey Inspired - Better Days. • LAKEY INSPIRED - Bette...
Stream on Spotify: spoti.fi/2YxsvYG
Artwork: Thumbnail+Background by Canva www.canva.com/
Sources: Footage Courtesy of Micron, Tesla, Meta Quest, Mohnish Pabrai
/ microntechnology
/ tesla
/ metaquestvr
/ mohnishpabrai
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and these videos are for entertainment purposes only. Please do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Investing IQ is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly
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Please note: Some of the links above are Amazon Affiliate links where I'll earn a small commission if you make a purchase at no additional cost to you.

Пікірлер: 26

@cz7886 Жыл бұрын

When I compare the quality of your content with the number of subscribers. The quote of George Foreman immediately comes to my mind. "Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it."

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for the kind words! It really means a lot :)

@tymurmylosvietov4120 Жыл бұрын

Very good video. Thanks

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks Tymur! :)

@tadakimasu Жыл бұрын

Hmm....unfortunately book value relies on assets which can be assigned a value which could either be considered optimistic to conservative. Personally don't believe it's the most reliable indicator of valuation. I agree that you're correct in using the tangible value as that's the most conservative method. I think the purchase is based on Micron's cheapness relative to the industry, it's operating margins, it's ease of information which can be obtained via 10Ks. It's too early to say that it's a long term compounder at this stage, but so far in reading background material related to the semiconductor industry, seems there is a shift in the industry right now from continually meeting Moore’s law vs performance and efficiency. As we try to keep pursuing Moore’s law seems that we’ve reached a point where the cost of continuing it doesn’t really yield much more benefit to the end consumer. With that all being said the stock will become less cyclical and more secular and I think that's what they're betting on. I think this matches Mohnish's low risk, high reward that he mentions in his Dhando Investor's book.

@mitchelljones2381 Жыл бұрын

Awesome again mate . All so much easier with book u loaned me . Thanks mate

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks mate! Glad you liked it :)

@j.daniel2120 3 ай бұрын

@@investingiq could you let me know which book(s) to read? this was a bit challenging for me to digest.. Thanks!!

@investingiq 2 ай бұрын

@@j.daniel2120 I made a video about it awhile ago, the list hasn't changed that much :)

@rajibear77 Жыл бұрын

Hi does anyone know what the actual returns that Pabrai has had during his investing career. When I look at Shareholder letters for Pabrai Funds it has three funds which indicate returns to the holders of 10, 11 and 12% c.p.a. Although these are healthy returns it is not near as much i thought he has achieved. I would appreciate clarification as I think we need to know what kind of returns a 'super investor' is getting and is giving advice.

@stealthven2352 Жыл бұрын

I’d say that 12% and 10% are not conservative CAGR, in fact that are very high rates in my opinion

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Hey mate. Yeah you're right... I should have more specific that the conservative comment was related specifically to Micron, not in general haha. Those growth rates only have them reaching around 8.5B in 10 years, which Micron have made in the past in FCF. I dont think it's a stretch to say in 10 years they should generate the FCF they did in 2018 if things go well. I doubt it will be smooth or linear though, and I'm not sure how much they'll be reinvesting either so FCF will probably be all over the place. But you are right, 12 and 10% CAGR is high in general

@stealthven2352 Жыл бұрын

@@investingiq fair enough, that is good reasoning. Although, When I do my calculations I look at my estimate Normalised Earnings/ FCF (to make it easier) and I guess that I subconsciously thought that you do too.

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

I try to use whatever figure best represents the earnings power of the company. Sometimes I use operating cash flow and include Capex if the company is spending much more on growth than maintenance, like Amazon and Tesla. As I dont really want to punish these companies who are reinvesting aggressively. Sometimes NI and FCF can be misleading if its very compressed, due to spawning or reinvesting. For Micron I used Op Income (or EBIT) because I'm not sure how much of their Capex is growth or maintenance.

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Amazon back in early 2000s I mean :)

@stealthven2352 Жыл бұрын

I was about to ask for a micron video on the alibaba one and then i saw this 😂😂

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Haha wish granted ;)

@archiehung6361 Жыл бұрын

I checked your past videos and I am not seeing any that's directly about compounders. Did I miss it?

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Do you mean for Micron or just in general? Most of my other stock analysis videos are about compounders :)

@tolga3067 Жыл бұрын

you have completely overlooked that micron is a beneficiary of chips and science act and they have pledged to invest up to 100 billion over next two decades.

@stealthven2352 Жыл бұрын

What are the current holdings in your portfolio

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Hey mate. At the moment it's Tesla, AMD, BABA. Although its worth mentioning that my current portfolio doesnt properly reflect my investing style haha. All 3 are compounders imo but they're all too big to be 100 baggers (or even 10 baggers). I still think they keep compounding at higher rates than market for awhile, but these wont be 'forever' holds, probably 5-10years. When I feel they have reached maturity and start to stagnate, then I'll probably sell. Ideally I want smaller compounders that I can hold for 15+ years, ala Nick Sleep with Costco, BRK and Amazon. I'm just yet to find one haha. Looking at a few potential candidates at the moment

@stealthven2352 Жыл бұрын

@@investingiq When did you buy Tesla?

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

@@stealthven2352 early 2020 but been adding over time when it drops near avg buy price