Watch next: Economist Duncan Weldon argues that, after Brexit, Britain is once again becoming "the sick man of Europe". kzfaq.info/get/bejne/rd6hZ9ai1NHIm5s.html

EU was closing loopholes for tax evasion. London does the world's money laundering. It's really not that complicated.

"The naivete of the UK political system" The phrasing is very complimentary towards the Johnson government. They had been warned, many, many times that they were massively underestimating the complexity of Brexit, but chose to ignore those warnings. This can not be wholly attributed to naivety, but rather to disinterest. I think the Johnson government was pursuing different goals from what they admitted to. Their biggest priority was getting the UK out from under EU monetary regulations by 1-1-2020 because of the stricter EU controls on money laundering & financial transparency.

Imposing trade sanctions on yourself is always pretty silly.

They wanted all of the benefits of EU membership with none of the obligations and they did not get that.

They wanted a unicorn and got a one horned goat.

Free movement within the EU was a wonderful thing. I took advantage of it to travel, work, etc It was easy. Now it is a nightmare and has scuppered the dreams of many, faced with increased costs, beurocratic visa hurdles and for those with homes in the EU now limited to 90 in any 180 days. It is now again the persuit of the privileged and it is gained by those with access to money. Odd how so many of those who supported Brexit at the same time gained/bought EU passports!

So basically the losses are massive and the benefits are almost non existant, on top of this we've lost our freedom of movement.

The very fact he was replaced by an incompetent Frost was huge warning bells for brexit disaster. As a remainer, I really wanted to be proved wrong. We now have most incompetent government in living memory. Brexit argument was largely instrumental in the purge of more intelligent and competent politicians and senior civil servants.

There are still some delusions coming through in this interview. The idea that we gained 'maximum autonomy' from a wafer-thin trade deal is for the birds. Fun fact: if we want to sell any of our stuff in the EU (our largest and nearest market), we have to follow their rules. And oh yeah, we used to join in on making those rules before we left, and now we don't have a say but still have to follow them anyway. So we have even less autonomy than we had before we left. And for an encore, our borders are now so under our control that they're wide open.

They need us more than we need them, really?

We left the SM & CU on the day the EU's Transparency and Savings Directives came into force. Mogg and Redwood with their dodgy distant overseas investment companies were desperate to avoid those and they may have been the real drivers of the UK leaving, certainly the timescale.

So "having your cake & eating it" was what the UK had when it was in the EU: it got the economic boost while opting out of the stuff it didn't like. Now it's a mythical cake that you have to believe in but nobody has ever seen (or will see). To me it is obvious that if the British public had had the same understanding of reality that Rogers had - in particular the economic cost of leaving the single market and customs union - then Brexit would never have won the referendum. And the main reason they didn't understand - or not enough of them did - was that they were lied to.

When will Britain come to it's senses and end this insanity

It's funny to listen to the British thinking that to rejoin is a matter for the British alone. After their untrustworthy negotiations over Brexit, I doubt many Member States of the EU would even consider it for a very long time. An independent Scotland would be a different matter as they voted to remain.

The report, from classics master Martin Hammond to Stanley Johnson in 1982, criticised the 17-year-old Boris for thinking he should be free of the "network of obligation that binds everyone". The teacher also said Boris "believes it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception".

Maybe trade in “all the cards” the UK held during negotiations. They’re mint condition collector’s items.

Brexit has become nothing more than a national cult. Regardless of the impact on the UK economy, increasing immigration, inflation, the shrivelling pound, dwindling exports, vastly more expensive imports, loss of overseas markets and all the competitive advantage being had from EU Membership. We've gone from the fastest growing Economy in the EU, to the second worst in the entire G20. The Union is in terminal decline and will not exist within this decade. All of which shows no signs of obvious improvement. And still the zealots blame every external factor but the glaringly obvious, hard Brexit. Nothing matters but the sacred, bloated, toxic, cow of Brexit. Perhaps once Britain as an entity no longer exists, along with any status we once had in the World and with a unified Ireland and independent Scotland firmly within the European Union, we might be able to confront this lunacy. Another generation will then take steps to rejoin as the greatly diminished singular country of England. Who the hell knows where the Welsh will end up. Personally, I'm sick to death of all the rancid nationalism around the UK. I'm now, more than ever, English and not, British. Britain and it's putrid Brexit cult can just fade into history as far as I'm concerned.

How can a futile exercise in stupidity ever be done? It was always going to go like this, there is no other possible destination except the realisation that you really can't have your cake and eat it.

I am European and think that England back in the SM and CU is not an option, and also never will be ever again a member of the EU. If Scotland and NI perhaps in the future be a member is ok, but not in the United Kingdom. For me brexit is done 6 years ago.

I find nothing but denial, not despair, over Brexit from Brexiteers. I presume they can go on denying for ever. Politically powerful Brexiteers genuinely do not care if the country becomes poorer and poorer because they are the ones who profit from other people's poverty and despair.

The brexit Paradox is that any govt capable of delivering brexit wouldn't & voters clever enough to decode brexit would reject it. As Hugh Grant said "We’re not allowed to call Brexiteers thick but it’s a struggle sometimes.”

Extraordinarily good analysis. Why can't the BBC do this level of exploration of the issues? If our media outlets weren't so subject to political, financial and Establishment influence and so into 'popular' entertainment etc, we might have had proper coverage of the whys and whats of leaving the EU. Instead we just got a jumble of sound-bites and the whole thing was treated like a soap opera. With unfortunate consequences.

All rise to the Celtic alliance of Ireland and Scotland together.

Genuinely Brits, you have made a Great job by uniting us more. Now, since don't like the EU , you can keep away. Thank you very much and farewell.

First: "i don't think we are coming back" honey, we don't want you here. We only want Scottland and a reunification of Ireland Second: the "global" thing is a joke! Why a country like France, Spain or Germany are not "global"? Always the arrogance to believe that " we sre special" "we are different" Give me a break!

I want to go back to the EU. Please.

So “Project Fear” has become “Project Told-you-so”. No surprise whatsoever

I have to say as an Irishman brexit is a dream come true.

"EU vaccine pressure....." What 'pressure'? Hungary - an EU member - did its own thing; purchased and distributed Russian Sputnik V vaccine. Sputnik V wasn't even licensed in the EU, yet Hungary, an EU member state, bought it and used it.

Easily the best informed and most comprehensive summary of the current UK/EU relationship I have seen. Thank you.

Superb! What a comprehensive and precise analysis of the events around Brexit. I’d add that Brexit may have opened the eyes of the EU for the fair demand for a more dynamic governance.

And when Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins the EU. The UK is finished.

Didn't some people say all this? And they were told they were negative, unpatriotic, remoaners...It was impossible to deliver all the promises, and yet here we are. Brexit meant different things to so many people...It's made our country worse and Johnson is to blame.

Brexit is working quite well: Europe is now able to slowly slowly come together!

Supposing the UK is the centre of Europe. In this situation the UK is surrounded almost everywhere by EU territory similar to Switzerland which can be regarded as an island inside of the EU. I have the impression that brexit will never come to an end. Whenever brits want to travel to the EU or want to trade with the EU they have to follow EU regulations. Perhaps brexit CAN never get done because of this situation.

Simple question, what has happened to all the money that was paid to the EU and why hasn't it been used to help those people in need

Excellent analysis. I'm staunchly pro-European. From what I've read reported over the last six years Ivan Rogers is bang on in his assessment. The sad fact is that the English political establishment is incompatible with the concept of co-operation with other European nations and governments. De Gaulle was right when he objected to British EEC membership back in the sixties for that very reason.

Scotland leaving the UK might actually solve the NI conundrum, as it would force unionists to chose between loyalty to the Crown, or staying close to their ancestral heritage in Scotland. If they chose Scotland, this might result in a Celtic equivalent to Scandinavia or the Benelux countries, with close economical and cultural ties between Ireland, NI and Scotland, forging a new identity.

Kiwi here. I really enjoyed this substantive, knowledgeable coverage. Thank you.

If brexit is going so well why are half the population looking for Irish Passports 🤣🤣😍

I watched all of his speeches and interviews available and by far Ivan Rogers is the best expert in the UK on the issue of Brexit. Always level headed and unbiased, trying to present facts rather than opinions. A huge loss for the civil service.

Gosh, imagine that, the Tories promised something and it turned out not to be true, and now they're desperately trying to cover their arses because they've sold the country down the river, again.

The reason they are unhappy is simple. They were promised something which was completely impossible but they stupidly believed it. They say there are two sorts of Brexiter, very rich and very stupid. Check your bank balance to see which sort you are.

Fascinating interview, thanks New Statesman!

In light of that honest conversation it seems like government is making the best of a overwhelming majority in Parliament, by eliminating human rights and diluting the media to be forced to fall in line, in order lay the foundation for whatever comes next.

Ireland would push hard to help the Scots join the EU.

Interesting interview and good hands off interviewing.

The vast majority of British fishermen voted to leave the EU during the Brexit referendum. Fishermen now know that Brexit has been a disaster for the fishing industry. The workers in other British industries who voted for Brexit are worse off or unemployed because of leaving the EU. These were seduced by glib propagandists like Farage, Hannan and Boris Johnson. It would be appropriate here to quote George Carlin, the US comedian, who used to say “the average person is pretty stupid and just think that half the population is even more stupid than him”.

I fundamentally disagree with the arguments for leaving. There were no gains to be made as the plan or should I say lack of plan has led us already to be the poor man of Europe. Working people having to feed their families from food banks, unable to pay their bills, choosing heating or eating. This has been a senseless push by the far right to take back sovereignty…we had sovereignty. Take control of our borders….we are an island we had control of our borders. This was rich carpetbaggers in this country looting the country…just look at the obscene amounts of money which has been “lost” during the pandemic and they are refusing to find it. I am so embarrassed to now call myself British. We are being led by a narcissistic mad man who is happy to lie and lie again without shame or rebuke who is mired in sleaze…quite simple revolting and stomach churning.

I am still waiting for the Post-Brexit vision...

Has anyone else still not received the Pink Brexit Unicorn we were promised . Guessing it must still be at customs waiting for the paperwork

Brexiteers are in charge and they have the cheek to say its a remainers brexit

Given where the UK is now, I simply can't see how the country - and certainly the bulk of its people - could, going forward, ever feel properly safe and prosperous again. Someone please educate me.

All they can talk about is money & the economy . They don't want to understand why we voted for Brexit!

I can tell you one thing.. A lot of usually very calm people are getting really angry at this country being rudderless.

The deal isn't causing trade war - the breaking of the deal by the UK is.

Unfortunately for Britain, it fell for the myth of Brexit cakeism...

I am always smiling when "specialists" saying how important, influencing and successful the UK within the EU was.... Now I ask myself why the UK wants to change everything when it was so good... It seems more that the UK is highjacked by an nationalistic English party and the voters supported it during the 2019 election. Maybe the UK performed very well on Trade and commercial terms but the people in the UK never developed themselves in a European Way of living. I don't agree with everything what this guy is saying because he doesn't understand the EU either.... The EU doesn't want becoming like the UK where only money is counting. A Federal Republic of Europe and a European Army should be what many EU citizen want. Let's see how it's going.

The vaccine topic is so funy, Yes the UK was the first to carry out vaccines but was overtaken by 22 of the EU memberstates in % of pupulation vaccinated after 6 month. So the UK might have been the first but it was by far not the fastest.

Very good interview. Always worth listening to his views. I just have a couple of comments on Scotland: Spain is not opposed to Scottish independence and EU membership. It is opposed to unilateral secession. As long as Scotland leaves the U.K. with the consent of the British government it will certainly not stand in the way of Scotland in Europe. Secondly, an independent Scotland wouldn’t open a debate on a Europe of microstates. Scotland would be a large small state, or a small medium state, if it joined. It would probably be 17th or 18th out of 28 members in terms of popukation. It certainly wouldn’t be one of the smallest.

Can someone please point me to the sensible, balanced analysis that shows how Brexit was ever a good idea? Anyone?

The reason for a thumping majority was against and anti Corbin rather than pro Brexit.

The Vaccine rollout is a red herring wrt to Brexit. The UK was effectively in the EU (This was during the transition period) at the time. In addition, Hungary and I believe Denmark went their own way anyway. SO there was no compulsion to choose the central planning model that most countries accepted. The EU Program was v slow taking off and frustrating to watch, it did catch up and may have exceeded the UKs program within about 6 months.

Who needs intelligent thoughtful people like this when we have heavyweight brains like Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg ruling over us?

What? Lord (numptie) Frost is still beating the brexit drum and if course none of the downsides are his fault.

This is the sort of thinking that should have been engaged in before the referendum was held. David Cameron was in the same class of competence and responsibility as Boris Johnson.

I believe, sooner rather than later, the UK would join the single market and the customs union inplace of becoming a member. It is inevitable because erecting trade barriers that they did not have before is unsustainable. Norway and Switzerland, for example, are not members but do enjoy unimpeded free trade. You always do the most trade with your closest neighbors. All around the world you see examples of this.

My dear British Citizens, Please eat your Brexit Cake and stay away from us for good!

Scotland will get into the EU easily. The Scottish pound is such a thing

Brexit is kinda like if Texas reacted to free trade treaties with Mexico by closing the state off to the other 49 states whining about how expensive everything is now.

"The economic damage from BREXIT is becoming increasingly evident." ~ Ivan Rogers • 6.24.22

I voted remain and wondered why my friend voted to leave. He told me it would be just like canceling a gym membership! Needless to say im very thankful the dutch government has given me a 5 year residency card as i registered before brexit. Lets see what happens. If i am wrong as a remainer i can always move back.

Oven ready pity Johnson couldn't get the matches tae light.

Who could have seen that comming?

Brexit isn't working, it's clear to see even for Brexiteers, but Brexiteers are slow learners and it will take about 10 years of pain before they are willing to admit they got it wrong and want to change course and until then, things are likely going to get worse in the UK with the real possibility of Scotland and/or Northern Ireland leaving the UK union and honestly, maybe that needs to happen as a major wake-up call for the Brexiteers. Being stubborn and not listening to other points of views on Brexit can have major consequences for the UK and I think that as long as the Conservative Party are in power, the risk grows every day that Scotland or Northern Ireland will leave the UK union, they are the ones fuelling the fires and they don't even realize it.

Regarding immigration,it has been the Australian experience that to have a liberal immigration program, the government must have “control” of the borders i.e. the ability to determine and control eligibility and entry into the country.

What a balanced and pragmatic commentary from Sir Ivan. It’s clear now, leaving the EU isn’t impossible, but it is of paramount importance that it is managed by people far more capable and experienced with problem-solving/planning than the naïve instigators of the idea. Whilst emotion is a great motivator for votes, it plays no part in careful decision making and is no excuse for not having a plan.

Sir Ivan Roger has a great view on European things. Indeed Britain is very different regarding leaving the EU at least on 2 counts: The UK is the sole country never invaded during WW2 (a strong motivation for the invaded countries to construct a peace and economic machine). The UK had a huge empire and many there have profound regrets of a period when Britain was imposing its rule to the world. True France has also a huge empire but because of the Algeria war and the Vietnam war, the colonial page was turned much faster and very few regret that period. For these reasons Britain never truely supported the political project and many British politicians were just trying to use the economic entity to their benefit. Brexit was brewing for a long time way before 2016 (end of Thatcher period). Also for these reasons, Britain believed it could impose its rules even when leaving (They need us more than we need them, We are not a rule-taker). Indeed Britain made such an arse of itself when leaving that it added a lot of cohesion to the EU. Truth is, the EU is not perfect, far from it BUT, politicians everywhere have this nasty habit: when something is good, it is thanks to THEM, when something is bad it is the EU's fault. Brexit set the records straight in many places in the EU. In the UK Brexit is like a religion and even in the face of obvious Brexit drawbacks will claim the happy Brexit fish, happy to be British.

A very clever man who knows the EU better than most. A lucid and well argued and structured analysis from someone who called this a long time ago. Thank you for sharing this with us.

In Denmark the extreme left and right are still going on about leaving EU but saying it more softly. The other parties which were partial to leaving don't want to touch it with a ten foot pole now. Excellent analysis and video. I'm personally sorry that Britain left because Denmark and Britain (and other smaller states) was on the sceptic side. We did question the EU positive side, particularly France, and held back on the more outlandish sides of EU. You can say we were a stable factor. That side is gone with Britain and now the EU leans fully to the other side.

good interview. thank you.

Graveyard is full of people who could not be done without.

to fix or improve areas affected badly by Brexit, UK government would have to onestly acknowledge, name and define the problems, and admit the lies and misinformation pushed about Brexit in order to to 'get it done'. Instead Brexiteers continue to deny reality, pretending problems don't exist, to avoid responsibility, public esposure of the primary brexit lies and inept handling of the whole exit process.

I fear Ivan’s thoughts are a tad optimistic. But hey, when your as down and out as we are, the only way is up.

The whole Brixit debacle is an explicit denial of the Gravity Model of Trade, which basically states that the intensity of trade is highest between geographically close states, and decreases as the distance between trading partners increases. It is also a denial of the reality that rich countries trade, overwhelmingly, with OTHER rich countries. The UK is about No 30 in the world, in terms of per capita GDP. The World Bank classifies about 36 countries in the world as 'Developed' or rich. Of those, at least 30 are in the EU and the EEA. The UK simply CANNOT replace its trade with the EU by making trade deals with countries or blocs on the other side of the planet. Nor can the UK become better off by selling expensive services, its most lucrative exports, to the likes of Malawi.

Yes, it was all ‘oven ready’ but boris forgot to turn the oven on

You can pump sewerage into your waters whenever you want.

Thank god I got out of the uk

23:30 Correct, deepen and strengthening the Union to bring peace to the whole continent and then pick up the pieces after the UK falls apart. That might come faster then Sir Ivan Rogers thinks. 😁

The fact of the matter is that my children were born as citizens of a European Union and the rights that gave them were stripped away from them. That in and of itself is one of the biggest removal of human rights in British history.

Brexit - of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%.

Thank you and a thumbs up, as always it is very interesting to listen to Ivan. However he is pushing this myth that Thatcher was good for the UK economy?. Top 20 countries in the world with the largest positive external balance in goods and services (US dollars) In 1971 the UK was 4th best with a surplus of 2 trillion, we dropped out of the top 20 in 1972. The UK regained 8th spot in 1977 (4 trillion) by 1979 we were again 4th (10 trillion). The UK peaked in 1981 2nd (15 trillion) by 1985 the UK had dropped out of the top 20 never to re-enter. ). Our world in data “productivity per hour worked” 10 EU countries. 1970 5th best behind Netherlands, France, Denmark and Belgium. 1974 6th overtaken by Italy. 1990 8th Germany and Finland. By 2012 we were last overtaken by Ireland and Spain. The UK deserved the title sick man of Europe because of our industrial relations, but economically Post-war comparison with the big 5 founding members of the EC GDP per capita up to 1966 we were first 67 overtaken by the Netherlands in 69 by France, 1974 we were 5th only above Italy. In 78 and 79 we regained 3rd spot. By 1991 we were last. Balance of payments (BOP) ONS figures. The Wilson government (L) plus 604 million pounds sterling was the last UK government to run a BOP surplus during it’s time in power i.e., we sold more than we purchased as a country. Heath (con) minus 3660M, Callaghan (L) minus 4330M, the Heath and Callaghan governments were in power during a major world recession Thatcher (Con) minus 72,000M. That record loss despite the first four years 1980,81,82 and 83 the UK had a surplus of 8339M of course that was before her policies destroyed our manufacturing base. Major (con) minus 46,563M

"We are exceptional" hmm

06:28 Diversifying from a de facto world standard is not a benefit by itself, any diversification benefit would require there to be a plan to use that specific diversification for some specific purpose. Otherwise it just means providing substandard goods for a presumably lower price. 07:28 Deregulation just means accepting substandard goods for a presumably lower price, period.

They thought America should bail out Britanna

All those hard Brexiters who kept shouting " Get used to it" or "project Fear" are like children when they suddenly discover the myth over Father Christmas and try not to show their huge disappointment. Pride is the only reason why so many refuse to recognise the facts in the same way that some of the betrayed children deliberately choose to continue believing in Santa even if they cover themselves in playground ridicule!

I wonder where he gets the figures for the "benefits" of regulatory relaxation from. Lowering regulations can make you more competitive in markets where regulations are lower, but closes markets where regulations are stricter. As the EU is by far the largest trading partner of the UK, this means that lowering regulations will mainly make it easier for other countries to export to you, while local production needs to maintain high standards in order not to lose their existing market. A company can not change its standards depending on who they produce for: they need to comply with the highest common denominator. This undercuts local production, which is exactly what we see happening in e.g. UK agriculture. Soon other branches of the economy will see the same effect. Also, new foreign markets can never make up lost exports to the EU, as it is the largest trading block in the world, conveniently placed at UK's doorstep. That is the biggest Brexit fallacy. There was nothing preventing companies from targeting those markets pre-Brexit. Economically, both short and long term, deregulation therefore makes no sense. That is not even talking about the social and environmental effects, as being able to compete with low-regulated markets means UK living standards will need to drop substantially. Which is exactly why the EU is raising standards: to improve living standards for its citizens. Which is why one of the very few examples of Brexit success we saw was a company exporting glass eel: a protected species that should not be trade in this way.

Don’t think Europe ever moved to undercut Nato. Eu defense has always been inline with nato, with only a difference regarding issues NATO would not address.

Always strikes me when people who write how bad Brexit is, never give any specifics. Just headline generalisations.