The inflation in GA parts has been crazy. I think increased prices is gonna add a year or so to my build.

Seriously.

I agree. I've got all my kits ordered and have received most of them but am still missing some important items (like Berringer wheels and brakes, the front landing gear, and lots of little things). I also have a bunch of laser cut parts. Anyway, I'm still gonna chug away. I would be stunned - stunned - if Vans didn't come out of this. I'd bet the ownership will change, and at the end of the day, that might be a good thing. But I bet, after a period of reduced service, they're gonna be right back at it and most people won't notice much being different. Well, except higher prices... But we'll see!

Thanks. Very much enjoy your videos.

I don't think the current owners will make it out with their equity intact. But given where Vans is right now, if an investor comes in with enough money to fund operations for a few months and can finance the replacement of LCP, they can probably walk away with a majority stake in the business.

That's a good idea, How much do you think the average donor would give, times how many donors?

I want to see Van succeed., He seems like a straight shooter, although the current management has to go, in my opinion.

Thanks! Every time the price goes up, it's like: add another year to the build.

Yeah, a lot of people are not happy, and I understand why. To be fair to Vans, financial distress tends to creep up (to paraphrase Ernest Hemingway) "slowly, and then suddenly." It's easy to say Vans misled people, but more likely, Vans may have not seen this coming as well as they should. Easy to see in hindsight though.

Some have said want to make a million?? Spend two million.

Yep, just like farming.

Wow, that sounds absolutely miserable. All of my wing ribs are punched - the only parts of my wing kit I'm not sure about are the aileron and flap spars and nose ribs. So I'm probably going to have to completely rebuild those.

@@buildingthe10do you have any photos in blue plastic with your ribs being covered in it??! I’ve heard some of punched ribs are not covered in blue plastic ??

@@jerseypilot83No, I didn't take any photos. I just remember taking off the blue plastic on the ribs as well as processing them. The punched parts all have a smooth side and a side with a lip, and I remember that on my ribs (because I take extra care on the side with a lip). The first time I noticed parts that didn't have this (what I now know are laser cut parts) were on the ailerons and flaps. The punched parts that don't have blue plastic are heat treated. My understanding is that blue plastic = punched parts. No blue plastic = maybe punched, maybe LCP.

Same with me. At this point, I've read a lot of what people have had to say and my assessment is that they are an engineering-first company and got slammed by a business environment that they were not prepared for. Frankly, much larger, more business savvy enterprises have made worse mistakes. I think they're good people.

On their website they say that "kit orders will not be processed" during the next few weeks (www.vansaircraft.com/2023/10/business-announcement-from-vans-founder-dick-vangrunsven/). The are almost certainly going to raise prices, and allowing people to lock in prices now would probably not be a good financial move. Anyway, I interpret this to mean that they are not taking orders.

@@buildingthe10 ahh, I see it now. I glossed over that part. Luckily, I have plenty to work on for now and I wasn't affected by the LCP issue.

Lol, you seem to get our weather right before we do!

I don't think it was the decision making that changed so much as the business environment. In particular, the shipping of QB kits got much more expensive (after they had already locked in a price), as did the aluminum parts (inflation combined with longer lead times meant that, by the time they produced the parts, their costs were much higher than they were when they locked in the kit price). They had a dramatic increase in orders during Covid which increased lead times substantially. And they got hit with a double whammy of quality control issues: laser-cut parts and QB kits that had bad primer (as well as LCP). Most likely, they were simply overwhelmed. I think Vans has been run by engineers and enthusiasts, but even business types would have had a hard time managing this. But that's just my two cents.

even with a perfect toolpath the laser still hardens the edge too much to not fracture when forming. its actually 2 fails in 1. then not inspecting and shipping crap is the nail in the coffin.

True. My comparison to Cirrus was more to illustrate the scale of Vans’ operations. I think a lot of people hear “kit plane company” and think they make, like, 10 planes a year.

Very unlikely..

Coming along just swell... I'm sure you've heard the knews about Vans filing for Chapter 11; I was expecting a buyout, but this is good news (given the alternatives). I'm moving forward with my build...

@@buildingthe10 Thanks for the reply! Glad to hear it!

I've got most of them, but some parts are still on back order. Not small parts, expensive parts, like the front landing gear and Berringer wheels and brakes.

Companies usually file for bankruptcy at the behest of creditors (who want to get repaid). As far as I know, Vans doesn't have much debt, and I don't think that creditors breathing down their neck is one of their problems. I have never been aware of a company filing for bankruptcy in order to get out of customer commitments (though I am no lawyer, and maybe this happens). But even if they could do this, it would be incredibly stupid to do so - it would forever break customer trust and who would ever write them a check again? From what I understand, what they need right now is cash - because they don't have enough to fund operations. The way they will likely get this is to sell an equity stake - maybe even a controlling stake. For example, you come in and say "here's the $10 million you need to supply new LCP, pay employees, and all that other stuff, but now I want a 70% equity stake in the firm." Something like that. That's how I see this playing out. Also, firms can (and usually do) continue to operate. For example, GM went through bankruptcy in 2009, but most customers weren't even aware of it. So unless liquidation is on the table (I can't imagine this being the case for Vans), even if they were to get through bankruptcy, it's entirely possible that customers won't see a complete standstill in operations. But again, unless Vans has a lot of creditors who want to take collateral (or something like that), I don't see how this happens.

​@@buildingthe10 My interest in Vans is this. I'm a fiberglass man. I once built a Velicity, flew it awhile and sold it. But I got the itch again and bought an rv6 from an estate. My goal is to turn it into an "A"; and change the engine to a 360. Fairly simple and a small investment. Here's the situation with Van's. A company can file a voluntary bankruptcy, and many do using chapter 11, which is the reorganization bankruptcy, and the sooner they do, the better for all of us. As you know the problem is with the RV 12. I'm just going to guess and say there's a thousand of them out there, and in my opinion every one of them is worthless. The owners, in my opinion are going to have to take the motors out and sell it, because the motor is going to be worth more than the motor and the plane. I base my opinion on this, an airplane is not like buying a car. In my opinion no buyer is going to want to touch an RV 12 much less buy one no matter when it was built. Now, you non RV 12 owner's can basically wait for your parts, because after all, you have to, but the RV 12 guys, in my opinion, are not going to roll over and take it. I foresee a huge class action suit against Van's, 1000 planes times an average cost of $20,000 is two million (My mistake, it's twenty million dollars} plus legal fees. I doubt Van's we'll have this money considering they won't be able to sell a kit during the course of the lawsuit. And for Vans to expect renumeration from a foreign corporation is silly. In my opinion, the only way to save Van's is to sever the RV 12 line through Chapter 11. I'm fortunate, my RV6 was certified in 2002, before Van's would ever consider having parts made in a foreign country.

@@josephmistretta6211 If they got sued, that might push them to bankruptcy. But that hasn't happened yet, and I'm not hearing any real concerns that it might happen. At least beyond the regular we're-in-the-US level of maybe being sued.

@@buildingthe10 in my opinion, I think that they can avoid liability from a lawsuit by filing chapter 11.

@@josephmistretta6211 where are you getting your information on the 12? It’s a very popular kit and used in flight schools…Vans is in very deep and will most likely have to limit the kits they sell, but I see the 7, 8, 10, we and 14 surviving.

Either way they need cash, though. So they're gonna have to figure out a way to get that.

Agree.

I'm not so sure - the fact that Vans has run out of cash means a potential buyer or equity investor has an edge in bargaining. Basically, if you can fund the LCP and QB costs, you get to buy Vans. Or at least a large stake of it. But new equity investors have a pretty strong bargaining position because they can go to current owners and say "would you like to own 100% of an insolvent company, or 20% of a company that exists?" I don't know what the numbers are, of course - Vans is a private company and doesn't disclose its financials. But if I had to bet, it would be that somebody is about to get a huge equity stake in the company for relatively cheap.

True, but they can't sell the kits at a loss, either. And the unfortunate reality is that costs have risen dramatically.

As bad as it got for Mooney, they still exist.

@@buildingthe10 I hope for you and GA that you are right but prepare for the worst.