Technically the better play was to prepare a sheep for wood trade with him to save me some sheep but the 8 rolled.

I mean it doesnt hurt to ask. I knew what I was doing had an incredibly high risk to backfire. The 411 is an ok expansion spot that gives me some sheep acess with coord 4s to buy development cards. I am aware of this. I am also aware that the 6311 to 61112 was an option. But I didnt think it was going to give me enough of an edge this game. So I figured my only way to have a relatively sucessful game was to go all in on this plow. And honestly if a 5 or 3 rolls in late game, there is brick out there for trade to avoid drew from having the double play. I dont regret my decision I played for what I believe was my best play to win the game. This is Catan sometimes your plans don't work out. That's ok

@@awesomeaggron5236L skill issue. sheep port wasnt even a good expansion for you. embarrassing you’re typing essays in the comment section

​@@awesomeaggron5236i thought your play was good. If Dandy hadn't gotten lucky you would have been in a good position to win the game. All 5 resources and a decent port considering how much sheep the board produces.

@@ass-master-deluxeI agree. What use is a sheep port with so little sheep? And making an enemy so early in the game isn’t smart either.

Appreciate you calculating this i knew I was playing a big risk at the start. Fun to know exact odds :)

If Orange or Black rolled a 7, they'd probably hit Drew bc it'd be better for the table if Blue won that race

It's a bad assumption that no sevens roll. Like you say, a 7 does not produce anything for Drew. Also, your calculations are wrong. Here is my attempt, assuming that there is no stealing (from or by Drew), blocking, or trading. There are 3 combinations of rolls that give 2 sheep (e.g. one combo would be rolling a sheep on the first roll, not rolling a sheep on the second, then rolling another sheep on the third roll). The probability for each of the three combinations is 12/36 * 12/36 * 24/36 which equals 0.0741, so for three combinations it would be 3 * 0.0741 which equals 0.222. We can do this for all the resource combinations that give Drew the road. 3 combos of 2 sheep: P = 3 * 12/36 * 12/36 * 24/36 = 0.222 1 combo of 3 sheep: P = 1 * (12/36)^3 = 0.037 3 combos of 1 wood: P = 3 * 5/36 * 31/36 * 31/36 = 0.309 3 combos of 2 wood: P = 3 * 5/36 * 5/36 * 31/36 = 0.050 1 combo of 3 wood: P= 1 * (5/36)^3 = 0.003 We could add all of these probabilities up, except that they are not all mutually exclusive. As happened in the game, there are three combos of 2 sheep and 1 wood. We have to subtract the probability of this (P = 3 * 12/36 * 12/36 * 5/36 = 0.045) from the total to get the right answer, since it is already accounted for twice in the total. The final probability is 0.576 or 57.6%

I love to see this side discussion about the math of the plow. Cool to see!

58% to have a high probability to win the game is not bad. It's not like it's 42% to lose the game.

Bad luck of sharing most of his spots with the players that got blocked the most

Blue here. Explain what i do in 4th? The ore is not good enough to play ows the ratios are really bad. 4810,963 is ok in theory as it has excellent production, however with tons of sheep and a 3 brick my game goes absolutely no where. 4th is genuinely atrocious here.. I should had talked to Drew here but I thought I had an ok shot at plowing I also didn't know this was drew during my placement but that doesn't matter. In retrospect I lose even if I get the plow because drew will take me down with him. I am forced to take a big risk if i want to win this game. It isnt about taking a port j cant use 411 gives me a great expansion and acess to sheep with coord 4s for some development cards. I hope this clears up some things about this game.

@@awesomeaggron5236 I almost think you may have been better going for mor wheat and maybe a side by side. Drew was going to go before you and may have had a better chance getting a wood to compliment his brick. I still don't know what you would have done with the sheep port. Just facing off against someone from the get go never makes for a fun game.

@@artboymoy it was never about fighting drew or the sheep port the 411 expansion compliments my setup quite well and the 4th position here is honestly terrible. Coordinated sheep wheat for devs doubling ore and good production. Even without the 411 I was doing ok it starts falling apart when marius and I cant roll any brick to keep drew away from the double play. I took a risk for what i believed was my best setup and it backfired. The SBS could work but the 3 brick is incredibly unreliable here if not doubled. maybe 963 843 was the move the more I think about this. I am just such an ore junkie when I play catan.

@@awesomeaggron5236 Fair enough, but you could have pointed the road off in another direction and avoided any conflict that early in the game.

@@artboymoy the conflict isn't the issue at no point was i not going to point any other direction. It would just be a dead road.

this, also dont like this nb thing...

Table talk isnt really "metagame", it's "game". without it you're playing RNG

table talk has always been part of the board game, it's a social game. but the sweaty constant nb extortion in high ELO games is a bit much, its why i've switched to 1v1s

Go play monopoly if you don’t like the social aspect of the game

Sometimes, I just wish to play without any talk from any player. They should add a no chat option

Blue here. Explain what i do in 4th? The ore is not good enough to play ows the ratios are really bad. 4810,963 is ok in theory as it has excellent production, however with tons of sheep and a 3 brick my game goes absolutely no where. 4th is genuinely atrocious here.. I should had talked to Drew here but I thought I had an ok shot at plowing I also didn't know this was drew during my placement but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. In retrospect I lose even if I get the plow because drew will take me down with him. I am forced to take a big risk if i want to win this game. It isnt about taking a port I cant use, 411 gives me a great expansion and acess to sheep with coord 4s for some development cards. Its about giving myself a winning plan which I dont think I have otherwise. Drew mentions 6311 to 61112 but honestly it is not strong enough to give me a competitive edge. So this was the only possible way imo. I hope this clears up some things about this game.

I disagree about 6/3/11 into 6/11/12. There are road outs and you can definitely hit some cities after the settle. I think with the usual balancing it's a good setup. Really it's still a win for red when orange leaves the wood port open but that's not on you.

@@awesomeaggron5236 8/4/10 with 9/10/11 down to 5/2? Nobody else really has OWS, and you can eventually get on the best brick. You also prevent black from getting on the 10 ore. Agreed, though, that 1st and 2nd have it much better on this board.

@@fortyfive-fortified ye thats actually reasonable. The only problem I forsee here is 943 to 63/692 might be too much to give drew. Also black and orange or pretty happy with 6311. So idk how worth it it is giving everyone else stronger setups in the process.

The side by side that drew was considering it is reasonable (3/4/8 and 3/6/9). You have 3:1 for the sheep. You rely a lot of 3s, but seemed best option. Drew should have taken 6/11/12 or 10119

Blue here. The ore is not good enough to play ows the ratios are really bad. 4810,963 is ok in theory as it has excellent production, however with tons of sheep and a 3 brick my game goes absolutely no where. 4th is genuinely atrocious here.. I should had talked to Drew here but I thought I had an ok shot at plowing I also didn't know this was drew during my placement but that doesn't matter. In retrospect I lose even if I get the plow because drew will take me down with him. I am forced to take a big risk if i want to win this game. I hope this clears up some things about this game.

every game has 4?

?

@@TP_Gillz a harbor is where it abuts two resources. This game all of the 3:1 locations we’re out on points. Except for one. And this at a harbor.

@@biggestbubba ideal port location IMO. Is at a harbor. Harbor is where you have two land tiles and one water. Should have access to 2 resources and the port. Where possible I want to increase my odds that on any given turn I will gain a resource. But sometimes you have to settle on the points. When you look at a board. What do you account for? Pips. OWS. Resource number diversity.

@@thelunatick1993 never heard the term harbor being used to only describe a port on two numbers... interesting. Its always nice to get that extra hex of production, but usually it means having to risk getting plowed to get it. The race is not always worth it.