China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying

China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying | Michael Pettis

Рет қаралды 461,461

Күн бұрын

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges.
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to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:40 China's Economic Growth Model
18:32 The Explosion of Debt in China
26:01 Van Eck ad
26:51 Domestic Consumption In China
35:04 How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works
39:04 Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble
43:20 Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China
49:01 Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue
01:00:46 The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy
01:02:45 Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?
01:04:55 Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.
01:08:28 Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Пікірлер: 1 200

@BlockworksHQ Жыл бұрын

Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. To access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor, go to vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance

@roberts2697 Жыл бұрын

Gordon Chang No, 2. No. 1 is hiding.

@MrManny075 Жыл бұрын

The Chinese system of government is way better than the so-called West, they plan and execute they don't worry about elections and they don't have a lobby system, leaders of the so-called West will love to have this system but they can't it's too late unless there is a revolution.

@tonyfaulknor8273 11 ай бұрын

1:02:11 Basically gambling on what these occultic nitwit accountants will do next. Is that so hard for these FED pups, to understand?

@user-vp1vl6yp9t 6 ай бұрын

No wonder the Chinese commies are still in power, because they get the advices from most coherent and fact based guests of the west commie lovers.

@Unisoft-data 4 ай бұрын

NOW PLACE THE SHORTING BETS!

@Lioc Жыл бұрын

I am a simple man, i see a video with Michael Pettis, i hit like.

@supremesoftware 4 ай бұрын

What has he said about America in debt of 34 trillions USD?

@Baldwin321 4 ай бұрын

Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.

@Damon4324 4 ай бұрын

It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.

@Alden457 4 ай бұрын

I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

@Scarlett34568 4 ай бұрын

I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you

@Alden457 4 ай бұрын

Aileen Gertrude Tippy' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@Scarlett34568 4 ай бұрын

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

@micbrett1 Жыл бұрын

Probably one of the most coherent, fact based guests you've had on. He puts into words what I have been seeing for at least the last decade. Thank you.

@twistedneck Жыл бұрын

is it just me or do you guys also keep re-winding each segment to understand exactly what he said.. and btw he runs a Chinese record label.. wtf??

@kennethli8 Жыл бұрын

100% agree. Pettis debates with his fellow professors and China economists and he usually makes the other person speechless. Conservatively speaking, Pettis has been right about China's economic direction for at least over 8 years. I have been following Pettis for over 10 years and he is one of the very few who understands the Chinese economic and political system. Do not listen to idiotic Wall Street banks when it comes to China.

@chiscoply97 Жыл бұрын

@@twistedneck sí le fui entendiendo, pero es difícil lo que dice si uno es un aficionado, en unas dos ocasiones sí rebobiné, pero fue para ver si había entendido bien porque lo que dice no lo ves fácilmente en otros lugares, entonces al ser algo nuevo yo mismo me quedo dudando si entendí bien o no, hubo una parte que ya había escuchado, aquello de la trasferencia de recursos entre los entes económicos (Estado, Empresas, población), pero no lo había entendido y con él ya me quedó claro y concluyó lo que ya había concluído yo, hay intereses en USA que no les importa USA, les importa únicamente su bolsillo aunque China esté perjudicando continuamente a USA, al final también los chinos comunes pagan con malas condiciones laborales, salarios bajos, etcétera, es una relación entre el Estado chino y sus ricos, con los ricos de USA y durante décadas USA ha hecho lo que China ha querido porque los ricos de USA tienen demasiada influencia en el Estado, sin lugar a dudas lo más perjudicados han sido los ciudadanos estadounidenses y USA como país excluyendo a sus ricos, luego los ciudadanos chinos, pero hasta cierto punto porque mejoraron sus condiciones. Definitivamente USA tiene que despertar, sus élites los están traicionando en su cara, desde que fue Kissinger a China les han estado viendo la cara de tontos.

@twistedneck Жыл бұрын

@@chiscoply97 I agree he is very difficult to follow because you want him to stop and explain wtf he just said and THEN keep going.. but still I have yet to hear anyone with this type of grasp of China.

@mfactory451 Жыл бұрын

bwahahahahahahah

@719603 Жыл бұрын

Pleasantly surprised to see Michael Pettis on here. I'd say he's a world class expert or the man on Chinese economics. Thank you!

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

He understands China's problems, it must be frustrating that he is in no position to alter it, some of the geopolitical variables he didn't talk about could cause fatal blows to China!?!

@hanfucolorful9656 Жыл бұрын

美国31万亿债务是指联邦政府债务，而中国52万亿是全国所有债务，包括中央政府，地方政府，企业债，家庭债加起来52万亿。跟美国的31万亿完全不是一回事，美国如果你算它的总债务，联邦政府加地方政府，加企业债家庭债，是美国GDP的1500%，远远高于中国的300%.

@asw654 9 ай бұрын

@@hanfucolorful9656the people who think China's total debt is anywhere close to US total debt are delusional.

@supremesoftware 4 ай бұрын

What has he said about America in debt of 34 trillions USD?

@mungoblakey1494 Жыл бұрын

Wow! This guy makes everything make sense. Honestly macro is super annoying in that so many people can just spout bs and get away with it, but Pettis articulates all of his arguments super well. Gonna buy his book, Jack, your doing the Lord's work :D

@25Soupy Жыл бұрын

I agree 100%. Just proof at how many so called macro economists don't really know what they're talking about and their massive ego's won't let them learn or correct what they say day in and day out. Really makes me wonder if the people working at the FED and other government agencies understand the economy at this level?

@imtryinghere1 Жыл бұрын

It is not a far-fetched statement to say that Jack Farley is quietly building a track record as one of the pre-eminent financial journalists in the world today.

@shad00w239 Жыл бұрын

Already in my book lol, but he has so much room to grow and I'm here for every minute of it.

@nigeljones9479 Жыл бұрын

He gets some great guests but perhaps he should ask more challenging questions

@imtryinghere1 Жыл бұрын

@@nigeljones9479 he doesn't appear to have deep training in accounting or a legal background, but he has picked up economics, central banking quite well. Everyone has their area of strength, weakness

@williambannister1127 Жыл бұрын

Jack should be proud of himself!

@maxg9680 Жыл бұрын

Jack Farley is a smashing hit, IMHO. His questions are highly intelligent, open-minded, and most of all, represents the most important things that an intelligent audience wishes to know. His tone of voice and cadence is not like some other sites where the host's voice seems filtered out of high pitches and loud accents that make them sound calm and objective, but artificial and not reflective of your curiosity and interest.

@steviechang Жыл бұрын

Pettis an absoute power house and authority figure on the subject. Thank you Jack for organising this and asking a great set of questions. Blockwork Macro at all time high!

@maxg9680 Жыл бұрын

Pettis has a way of clarifying complex economic ideas, although I do not agree with his conclusion that increasing domestic household income thru income redistribution will solve the problem. It will only exacerbate the problem and introduce consumer price inflation, which so far has been under very good control. The problem is the retreat of globalization that forces business to reduce its productivity, which in turn reduces household incomes.

@georgesiew6203 Жыл бұрын

Pettis is not a power house or authority figure on the subject. He is practically the only English language analyst that covers the Chinese economy. He's the only one accessible to western audiences and it's been that way for many years. His analysis however is terrible as he structures his analysis to appeal to English audiences and their biases. In the Chinese language space where there are thousands upon thousands of analysts that cover the Chinese economy, Pettis is a nobody, listened to by nobody. Also he is not a professor of anything with an academic track record of anything. He's just the equivalent of a long time non tenure track lecturer at a Chinese business school in China which struggles to find English speaking lecturers to teach courses in English. He's the equivalent of a seasonal contract lecturer teaching your MBA class at your local business school. In recent years he's turned his blog which is one of the very few English language blogs on the Chinese economy to appeal to the China bashers in the US and has gotten some positive attention from that. He's nothing more than a less outrageous Peter Zeihan. I will post a longer comment to this video to debunk most of what he says in this video soon. It is too bad that there is barely any intelligible analysis on China in English language media.

@olderchin1558 Жыл бұрын

@@georgesiew6203 Thanks for saying what I wanted to say. Pettis is being referred to by more western commentators these days. He does get somethings right but distorts the rest. He is a western commentators raised on a distorted western model of economics that only work for a country with the privilege of issuing a dominan reserve currency.

@andymcrae4661 Жыл бұрын

English clearly isn’t your first language so I will be brief. He is spot on! If you are so intelligent on this matter, why does no one care what you say?

@balozhende5727 Жыл бұрын

The USA has far more debt than ANY country. Indeed Japana and China hold more of the U.S. Treasuires compared to any other foreign country. Thoe Treasuries represent USA debt. I am an American economist.

@milerpiao Жыл бұрын

as a Chinese, I'm quite agree with what Prof Pettis said, he knows about China very well. my respects to him!!

@DK-ev9dg Жыл бұрын

You are a liar.

@aburetik4866 Жыл бұрын

a Chinese named Tom Park

@milerpiao Жыл бұрын

@@aburetik4866 haha, believe it or not, I am Chinese and still living in China and visiting KZfaq via VPN.. using VPN is illegal in China, internet is censored..no one want to use real name..

@cooldudecs 9 ай бұрын

China is collapsing...

@mickey1849 9 ай бұрын

@@milerpiaoYes. Using a vpn is illegal in China. It's time to round all you bad Chinese up and put you in prison!

@veronica.baker1 Жыл бұрын

Impressive video. I started a bit late (graduated from my doctorate program at age 30 in 2014 with 170k in school loan debt). Managed to pay off my debt by 2019 and currently have a house and 250k total in investments (combo of profit share, 401k and a brokerage account). I'm not very knowledgeable in investing, so I just have my investing currently in index funds mainly Too but have been putting a lot into Schd the past few months. I don’t know if that's the optimal strategy, but psychologically it is very set it and forget it, and prevents me from obsessing over individual stock performance.

@edward.abraham Жыл бұрын

I’m thinking of doing the same but not sure if I should use different brokerage accounts? Just curious. Pros and cons ?

@james.atkins88 Жыл бұрын

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@rebecca_burns14 Жыл бұрын

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@james.atkins88 Жыл бұрын

@@rebecca_burns14 She runs her firm under her name SHANNON MARIE WALCK. You can find her contact page if you research her. Do your due diligence you'd find all you need to know.

@rebecca_burns14 Жыл бұрын

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@vandycks1 Жыл бұрын

Wow! As an economist this ei one of the best lessons on global economy’s and trade I’ve ever had in a language that most people can understand! This channel is a gem and I’m going to promote to my contacts !

@darkstar2871 4 ай бұрын

Got introduced to Michael Pettis through this video and I must say this is one of the best videos I have watched on economics. Depth and clarity of thoughts is amazing.

@supremesoftware 4 ай бұрын

What has he said about America in debt of 34 trillions USD?

@user-if1ur5td1x 3 ай бұрын

Anything bad about china will draw in these indian fanboi .. Delusional and still think their toiletless country will become a great power

@vikashchandra9917 2 ай бұрын

@@supremesoftwarehow is that relevant?

@supremesoftware Ай бұрын

@@vikashchandra9917 Of course it's relevant, China’s high debt is spent on investments in infrastructure, manufacturing & technology which are likely to have high returns. While US High debts is spent on military expenditure & 800+ overseas military bases throughout the globe, invasion of many countries throughout globe & propaganda of fake news which are going to have negative returns. Debts are very crucial to a nation's development if it's invested wisely.

@supremesoftware Ай бұрын

Of course it's relevant, China’s high debt is spent on investments in infrastructure, manufacturing & technology which are likely to have high returns. While US High debts is spent on military expenditure & 800+ overseas military bases throughout the globe, invasion of many countries throughout globe & propaganda of fake news which are going to have negative returns. Debts are very crucial to a nation's development if it's invested wisely.

@kennethli8 Жыл бұрын

Per the Bank for International Settlement, the Chinese shadow banking industry alone is estimated conservatively at least 3 times larger than the 2008 Financial crisis. Add that amount with the on-the-books and off-the-books balance sheet, you can imagine how big is the real estate lending in China.

@quietStorm247 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for having the Professor. You provided many fascinating insights. Your excellent questions together with the Professor's exceptional knowledge and talent for communication make a powerful combination.

@retsdon Жыл бұрын

When Michael Pettis talks, I listen. Thank you for this.

@Cedartreetechnologies Жыл бұрын

Wow, Jack! Huge props for getting this most brilliant economist on your show!

@kennethli8 Жыл бұрын

@HKim0072 9 ай бұрын

He's an ex-bond trader. Bond people always need to be extremely well versed in macro stuff.

@user-vp1vl6yp9t 6 ай бұрын

No wonder the Chinese commies are still in power, because they get free advices from the west commie lovers such as this most brilliant economist Prof Pettis.

@cheeho9698 Жыл бұрын

The assumption is based on the the inability of China changing is mode. China had been changing its model non stop since 1945 after WWII. In the past 40 years since 1980s its economical model had changed so much that it is unrecognizable from its original communist mode. I believe it will change its model when circumstances demands changes. Their economical is pragmatic and not dogmatic or demagogic as Deng Xiao Peng aptly summarized it with his famous words "It does not matter whether it is a black cat or white cat. As long as it catches mice it is a good cat".

@theraljaxtin 11 ай бұрын

Xi Jinping's one-man personality cult rule isn't dogmatic or demagogic?!😂

@dianedean4170 Жыл бұрын

Excellent conversation 🎉 Thank you so much, Jack and Michael. I think understanding what are the financial incentives in every country, in particular, the larger countries, is essential in keeping a healthy perspective on the money supply. I look forward to listening to your podcasts in the future 🎉🎉🎉

@user-vp1vl6yp9t 6 ай бұрын

No wonder the Chinese commies are still in power, because they get the healthy perspective on the money supply for free from the west commie lovers.

@WhoCares..808 Жыл бұрын

Some may or may not agree with his thesis but this guest is of one of those very rare economists (top 5%) - whom you don’t see on CNBC or Bloomberg - who can articulate global macroeconomics in a very simple but succinct manner! 👍👏👍

@Leshic2 Жыл бұрын

He's been on CNBC, but not very often. It's almost a 12hr time difference to NYC. The times he's been on, the staff are beyond impressed. I can't see him being on Bloomberg. It would upset China too much...

@federicohan1458 Жыл бұрын

Lovely synopsis of one of Michael’s long standing theses, he’s really the king of explaining macro accounting /identities …30’ onwards. Thanks Jack & Prof .

@msmarialr Жыл бұрын

Thanks Jack for this informative interview. Prof. Pettis is an absolute pleasure listening to.

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

A pity that the CCP doesn't listen!?!

@guydreamr Жыл бұрын

Came here to hear about the economy of China, stayed for the amazing discussion on the nature and causes of current account surpluses and deficits and how foreign exchange works as well.

@anthonyyoung6489 Жыл бұрын

The quality of guests you’ve been having on lately has been impeccable. Just the highest quality.

@dontpresstheredbutton9962 Жыл бұрын

I’ve learnt a lot from this episode. Thank you Professor Pettit and Jack.

@kennethli8 Жыл бұрын

Pettis debates with his fellow professors and China economists and he usually makes the other person speechless. Conservatively speaking, Pettis has been right about China's economic direction for at least over 8 years.

@dontpresstheredbutton9962 Жыл бұрын

@@kennethli8 the USD10 trillion of shadow financing vehicle debt is what is foremost on my mind when it comes to China. American economists, commentators amd investors seem to have convenient blindness to it. Sure, it’s mostly yuan based debt but the CCP can’t print their way out of trouble this time because of the housing crisis. Citizens will be destitute if they do which will create a feedback loop in terms of local government revenue. Hey, but Blackrock says it’s a great place to invest so it must be, right?

@davidzoller9617 Жыл бұрын

Wow, now that's an hour very well spent, one of the best interviews around economics I ever watched. I guess, if you watch this a few times and understand the described mechanisms by heart, you may understand more about economics then most economy experts. Thanks Jack!

@kennethli8 Жыл бұрын

@HumbertoPatricio Жыл бұрын

What a lesson!! Thank you so much. 🙌❤️

@mere_cat Жыл бұрын

I read Trade Wars are Class Wars a couple years ago after I heard Michael Pettis on another podcast. I can’t say I 100% understand how it all fits together, but the central idea is profoundly interesting.

@davisoneill Жыл бұрын

Outstanding interview and great to hear a serious discussion of China without the anti-China propaganda BS.

@johanneswestman935 Жыл бұрын

Nothing is more boring than listening to Americans kvetch about the danger of China only to switch their stance 5 minutes later and say that it's game over for China. They do the same with Russia too. We should all be extremely scared of Russia but at the same time Russia is a completely incompetent gas station with nukes. At least pick a narrative ffs.

@theonlyconstantischange123 Жыл бұрын

Yes seriously enjoyed this...also Weston's first interview was great too. Really liking what BWM is doing

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

I'm sure the anti-west rhetoric is a number of factors worse from the Chinese, a lot of it is just absolute codswallop!?!

@davidaulia1595 Жыл бұрын

This is such high quality MBA equivalent full of insights interview. Thank you so much.

@Palmer-gs3wz Жыл бұрын

Economics, international trade and finance seems extremely interesting now that I'm 37. 😅 why couldn't I like these subjects when I was 17.😢

@williamhoffer9277 Жыл бұрын

This was a very interesting, informative conversation!

@chrisgibbons3877 Жыл бұрын

Thank You Jack, Thank You Michael truly an excellent interview! I've read his book but this so enlightening.

@soulsearch4077 Жыл бұрын

Quite informative. Great content 👍🏼

@selenajack2036 Жыл бұрын

I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this month. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve.

@bsetdays6784 Жыл бұрын

Even in this whirlwind, there are chances to be had, thus an increase in volatility is not always a bad thing. You have an opportunity to rebalance thanks to volatility. In order to help you diversify your portfolio, you must hire a financial counselor or broker.

@africanboi4542 Жыл бұрын

I'll suggest you create a diversification strategy because building a good financial-portfolio has been more complex since covid. Recently my colleague advised me to hire an advisor, surprisingly I have accrued over $120K under the guidance of my coach during this crash. She figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and make profit from this roller coaster market.

@adenmall7596 Жыл бұрын

@@africanboi4542 I'm intrigued by your experience. Could you possibly recommend a trustworthy advisor you've consulted with?

@africanboi4542 Жыл бұрын

@@adenmall7596 It's best you do your due diligence, I have my portfolio overseen by “ELEANOR ANNETTE ECKHAUS” and her qualifications speak for itself. Most likely, the internet is where to find basic info, she has a noticeable page for consulting.

@lucianoboccedi Жыл бұрын

This recommendation is coming at the right time because i am literally grasping for straws atm! I looked her up online and scheduled a phone call with her.

@4183Johnny Жыл бұрын

This was excellent; one of your best guests to date.

@abc-oe8hw Жыл бұрын

Jack Farley is just amazing. Simply the best

@RobWilliams007 Жыл бұрын

There’s a fourth reason that people quit spending: they’re so far in debt that they can barely service their bills let alone spend on eating out or new appliances, etc.

@fremeer 5 ай бұрын

Well that debt goes somewhere. Someone gets the income from that debt. In this case it's just another form of redistribution towards the wealthy or government.

@RobWilliams007 5 ай бұрын

@@fremeer or to foreign governments and thus, leaving our system and losing that precious velocity of money.

@dt-jy1ig Жыл бұрын

Too bad more Americans don’t understand Michael’s description of trade, surpluses, and deficits. They’d realize how a strong dollar isn’t necessarily in their best interest. They’d realize how important domestic US investment is to rebalancing of the US economy. They’d realize how many people have no clue what they’re talking about.

@christiankrueger8048 11 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@krakhedd Жыл бұрын

This was outstanding. Well done, thank you!

@fernandoesteban2345 Жыл бұрын

Prof Pettis has presented an extremely accurate and nuanced snapshot of the Chinese economic progress, thank you. Nothing here for your audience looking for short term investment tips unfortunately😁. Thanks Jack for the introduction.

@luly2323 Жыл бұрын

I am sorry ,he is clueless!

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

Didn't he big up US assets!?!

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

@@luly2323 He is more cognitive of the Situation than say the CCP!?!

@highbrass3749 Жыл бұрын

The wealth needs to be “transferred” to the workers. Not just the poor. Hard work should be profitable. It’s the only way to keep up production. The “poor” in America are actually doing quite well for not contributing to society.

@frankjhall1 Жыл бұрын

Where china has us beat is they are ethical. They don't want a hand out. That's a discrace. So in the public sectors jobs and unessasary jobs are created. Some pointless. The 50 plus crowed that has limited or no education\skill sets. The very large boomer population. Them and others across board for ? reasons. Regional? They are subsidized. They have also the same problem of shrinking pop. 1 child thing. Which is mind bogling for having a billion pop or what ever true number is and % of. And why the flood gates opened at mexico. There illegal. It's about the children going to have to participate in the legall system. Get educated, be American and contribute aross all fields. And hopefully shake there primary language as my grand parents did. Because they wanted to be Americans not take advantage of. Which appears to be the trend. But may not be nessarily so. Chinas importing women since such a male population. Any people factors. Ethnicity, religion, ect. comes 2nd or not at all to $$$$$ economics.

@fahrradflucht7723 Жыл бұрын

Sure replicate narratives the super rich want you to believe to not come after them, but instead kick down to feel better. Compared to them everyone is poor and that’s what was meant here. Every dollar out of the pocket of the rich into the pocket of the poor is an investment dollar that goes into consumption.

@Passio7Jd Жыл бұрын

Great to see Mr.Pettis here!

@aminbolandi6039 Жыл бұрын

Hello, I am great for seeing Michael Petis video. Thanks

@jonathanlee5185 Жыл бұрын

👍Thank you, Prof, for considering the place of poorer people within international monetary affairs. Also, there are some fascinating ideas here 👍

@Abhishekkumar-up8zw Жыл бұрын

Finally I found someone who is not biased. Neither anti- china nor pro. A true analysis. Thanks for this podcast 🙏.

@pancharathnaathmaram Жыл бұрын

I learnt a lot.Thank you both

@TheCabinman Жыл бұрын

One of the most intelligent videos I have seen on KZfaq in a long time …. Nice work!

@jeromez7148 Жыл бұрын

As a 35 yo Chinese, I agree part of Pettis' view, and I want to point out something you miss in the domestic consumption part. Nowadays, Many ordinary Chinese live through the tough time of China contribute a lot to the savings, their age are among 60-90, and they are very unlikely to have the wiliness to spend money on things other than the basic living related stuff. I know that because my grand mother is one of those people, she had to beg for food at her young age. She spend as less as she could and save as many as possible.

@legendbe2023 5 ай бұрын

Its generally true that when people get older they consume less, which is not good for China and Japan due to their fast aging populations.

@raanadisa472 Жыл бұрын

This supposedly expert feels like Gordon G. Chang in disguise🤔

@rafeekgafoor8084 Жыл бұрын

Where does he work again?

@raghunomics Жыл бұрын

wowwie. Thank you thank you. So so helpful. Rg

@Fish_Ventura 4 ай бұрын

Excellent to hear from Mr. Pettis @china update

@SLorenziify Жыл бұрын

Most counter-intuitive economic insights ever.

@tylerwasson4788 Жыл бұрын

This was a great interview best one I've seen in awhile. Hope this guy is on again.

@thakurvk Жыл бұрын

Brilliant economic lesson from professor!! Thank you

@fawazhfalfawaz6059 Жыл бұрын

Great teacher Michael , I really appreciate your knowledge and candor.

@JenghanHsieh Жыл бұрын

The "Surplus" and "Savings" is highly concentrated in the top 1% rich people. To make things worse, a large portion of the Chinese put their family wealth in real estate sector, along with very high level of debt.

@EmmanuelHemmerle Жыл бұрын

Simply not true that the Mainland Chinese families are indebted. The problem is the reverse: they save too much and spend too little these days.

@tobyw9573 Жыл бұрын

Paying down your plastic as well as other debt counts as savings.

@thevindictive6145 4 ай бұрын

Why would you invest in property when its a leasehold?

@sampotter4455 Жыл бұрын

Wow, great interview! I'd love to hear more from Michael Pettis, like a whole class. Excellent information and very helpful. (Non-finance person here).

@ShirleYangZi 9 ай бұрын

You provide many fascinating insights. The great questions you asked are a powerful combination with the professor's excellent knowledge and communication skills

@leekinboo Жыл бұрын

Thanks! very good ,i get so many things clear and also different from what I thought before,..

@vickielewis3848 Жыл бұрын

This discussion is highly informative and thought provoking. Quality listening. Thank you. 🔜🇺🇲👊

@candidkamerad Жыл бұрын

Great interview, and thank you to the professor for sharing his impressive knowledge on this subject. It was riveting! 🙏🏽

@MarcelLechin 11 ай бұрын

what a phenomenal interview!! Congrats keep up the good work

@luminyam6145 4 ай бұрын

That was a great interview, thank you.

@mrx2062 Жыл бұрын

Local governments in China do not have much money. The most taxes go to the central government. Local governments are often deep in debt.

@philiplaw2072 Жыл бұрын

Pettis thinks China need to solve their problems of having too much surplus. I am sure a lot of countries would like to have China' s problems.

@chrisschneiders6734 Жыл бұрын

Maybe listen again, l thought he explained that very well.

@AndrewGleave Жыл бұрын

It's hard for non Economists to understand, a large trade imbalance is unhealthy for both sides. China will now have to experience some prolonged economic pain as their GDP growth worsens in the longer term. The party has to come to an end at some point

@squidster3128 Жыл бұрын

In the first quarter of 2023, China’s GDP growth has beat market expectations. According to preliminary estimates, China’s GDP in Q1 2023 reached RMB 28,499.7 billion (US$4,145.5 billion), up by 4.5 percent year on year (YOY) at constant price.

@Gman979 18 күн бұрын

@@AndrewGleave give me 10 economists and I will have 20 versions of economical analysis. Remember 2008 on world renowned rating agencies filled with top notch economists and man how wrong were they.

@nfixion 8 ай бұрын

This a Super Great video! I thank you for bringing this guest and subject!❤

@dsmith5822 Жыл бұрын

I remember Jack's first interview a few years back, the confidence gained...great interview

@Sam_Goetmaekers 10 ай бұрын

The People Republic of China is not dying in its growthmodel, it is just changing and continue growing.

@zojkalle94 2 ай бұрын

Be quiet Chinese bot

@JoelER78 2 ай бұрын

But, it's not growing

@woongah 2 ай бұрын

Alas, I am not sure that the changes that we have seen as of late are really going to be all that helpful.

@bill4056 2 ай бұрын

be quiet, this is for propaganda purpose only. sssshhhhh

@cryptokid1021 Жыл бұрын

LOL…. YEAH LETS pretend the US $31 trillion debt ain’t the Elephant in the room🤭

@davidrichards1741 Жыл бұрын

$32 trillion immediately due on the balance sheet, plus another $300-trillion of federal legal liabilities hidden "off balance sheet". That works out to $5-million per working american!

@Sokrabiades Жыл бұрын

That was one of the best first answers to a first question I have ever heard.

@mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын

Really interesting!! Thank you

@richdiana3663 Жыл бұрын

And who's economic growth model isn't dying? Read "Limits to Growth" and be scared chitless.

@ObeyNoLies Жыл бұрын

Limits based on what understanding of science and technology? Do you realize what the world was like 100 years ago? Do you know how much nuclear energy is just lying around untapped? There are people in Pakistan making mud bricks for 1 penny per brick, you don't think they'd want a better life?

@richdiana3663 Жыл бұрын

8 billion want a better life. Goodbye biosphere.

@kabeerharrythakur8288 Жыл бұрын

The American feel good talk ❤❤❤

@thomasherrin6798 Жыл бұрын

I think he talks sense, it wasn't US centric, but what an economist thinks, but they are not always right, but it appears to be the right conclusion if certain geo-political uncertainties don't rear their ugly head!?!

@RasmusDyhrFrederiksen Ай бұрын

Great overview and discussion

@pascalxus Жыл бұрын

Incredible. so much to unpack here.

@disgruntledtoons Жыл бұрын

An economy can grow three ways: More people, greater access to foreign markets, and greater productivity of labor. As far as China goes, the first two are not going to grow (the first one is in decline). The third will eventually reach its limit. Capital investment was low in China, and it's higher now, which is most of the reason for its historic growth, but returns from more investment will become less and less, and China's authoritarian rule imposes a ceiling as well.

@allenfromalameda5691 Жыл бұрын

I watched this entire interview and feel like I learned something, but the discussion is at such a high level that I doubt I really understand it. Some things, like how Chinese households can have high savings and debt levels at the same time are very confusing. Still appreciate Jack doing his thing making seep content. Another question I have is how China’s supposed changing demographic profile will limit its ability to grow consumption.

@allenfromalameda5691 Жыл бұрын

Deep content.

@MsLodoss Жыл бұрын

To put this in simple words, Chinese workers are underpaid--- Corporations are suppressing the labor cost (aka wage, because labor unions is part of CCP party apparatus) of the workers, instead use it as a way to subsidize their market competitiveness in forms of cheap labors. Now you would also think of their government the same way, it underfund their social welfare program; what should be part of transfer payment to HH, aka, the HH saving, to capitalize their infrastructure programs. In this way high level of HH saving were implicitly taken and used to increase the relative competitiveness of China in the global market.--> create a trade surplus. On the other hand the households in china now with low wage shares are very cash-strapped, with low liquidity, force on taking a large proportion of household debt in relative to the actual take home paid that they earned. on top of that, the hyperinflated real estate market means that average chinese household have to spend very large portion income in long-term debt service (mortgage payment) which further reduce their disposable income. --> this often driven the HH house in high level of consumer debt as well when you are poor/ lack of liquidity.

@marczhu7473 Жыл бұрын

@@MsLodossthey don't underfund that much welfare look 0 homeless. 😂

@Pmooli 7 ай бұрын

@@MsLodossincredible. You have a lot of talent to explain the complex in ordinary terms

@Eric-is1jt 2 ай бұрын

Thanks!

@kalipotmeng 4 ай бұрын

Prof. Pettis is no doubt an expert. I'm missing in this interview that the interviewer did not seize the moment to ask more about the struggle between the central and local government and how the local governments could release more income to the ordinary people in china. This seems to be the only solution to china's development problem if it doesn't want to fall neither into the US model of cyclical crisis nor in the Japanese model of long term decline. Can there please be a sequel with Prof Pettis ?

@hansdoreen Жыл бұрын

As someone who lived in China for around 20 years and another 20 years in NA, I agree with Prof Pettis 100%.

@szymonbaranowski8184 Жыл бұрын

where did you move after?😂

@sonyjoseph5426 Жыл бұрын

What part of China did you live at

@yeetian2774 Жыл бұрын

@@sonyjoseph5426 he’s never lived in China. He probably gives u a fake name.

@hansdoreen Жыл бұрын

@@yeetian2774 I guarantee you I lived in China for 20 years.

@hansdoreen Жыл бұрын

@@sonyjoseph5426 我大部分时间住在中国北方，北京，沈阳，大连，鞍山。中国南方一些大城市也去过，上海，苏州，杭州，无锡，南京，广州，等等。In case you can't read Chinese, I lived in northern part of China, Beijing, Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan. I've been to quite a few southern Chinese cities as well, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing, Guangzhou, etc.

@pok10000 Жыл бұрын

Damn. This guy knows the stuff. I agree w him a lot. This guy prob was the mostly informed about China among every interviews uve done Jack. I'm gonna search more of his talks or writings.

@seekfunk3536 Жыл бұрын

very clear explanation from Prof Pettis. And makes a lot of sense.

@cmac7384 10 ай бұрын

Brilliant information. Great work.

@oklahoma1232 Жыл бұрын

Michael should leave CHINA PRC !

@jaareshiahq2106 Жыл бұрын

This professor interview was poignant. I instantly went and bought his book.

@akesha4138 Жыл бұрын

Super intelligent guest, a true scholar.

@luckytiger5551 Жыл бұрын

Excellent!

@heinzgassner1057 Жыл бұрын

Congratulations, this is a great guest !

@EricZachary-om7hf 11 ай бұрын

Great Video, Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.

@Harperrr.99 11 ай бұрын

Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.

@Blitcliffe 11 ай бұрын

@@Harperrr.99 Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

@Blitcliffe 11 ай бұрын

@HENAhlgren The stock market is without a doubt the awkward teenager with the most extreme mood swings! I started out with a commentator named “Mariam Sandra Milner” Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.

@millevenon5853 7 ай бұрын

Brillant discussion. Love it

@kaycheung3749 Жыл бұрын

this video is packed with information

@dave7244 Жыл бұрын

"We must redistribute wealth" ... I can smell socialism.

@geminiXXX Жыл бұрын

He meant redistribute BACK.. So far it was being distributed to the elites... unfairly

@ObeyNoLies Жыл бұрын

Redistribute to whom I wonder? The problem is once you give someone the power to redistribute wealth chances are they will distribute it to themselves.

@yeetian2774 Жыл бұрын

Tell that to IMF. They predict China’s economic growth is 5.2%, only behind India. 🥳

@legendbe2023 5 ай бұрын

IMF gets their data from Chinese government so they can only make predictions based on that. I am pretty sure if their base number is 10% their projection would be closer to 10%.

@gstlb Жыл бұрын

Wow. Best interview on Chinese economy ever.

@leopalarca2366 Жыл бұрын

Great interview!

@davidrichards1741 Жыл бұрын

Tell u what, we all need to stop this warmongering garbage and instead cooperate for the benefit of all.

@gj8550 Жыл бұрын

A primary reason that China has a trade surplus is that more and more Chinese are buying domestic products. American export restrictions (such as chips) are contributing to that behaviour. Domestically produced cars are outselling imports. Huawei are more popular than Samsung and iPhones combined.

@tonysu8860 Жыл бұрын

Don't know where you're getting your information. A trade surplus has little to do with great Chinese consumption unless China just chooses to make stuff domestic Chinese don't want. American import restrictions don't describe chip sanctions well, chip sanctions affect Chinese manufacturing affecting everything, both export and import. Domestic car profits are crashing. The goosed up numbers for the past several months have been heavily dependent on deep subsidies and discounts that wiped out all profits and is likely going to result in a mass contraction of China's EV manufacturing. Huawei is popular in large part because the CCP is doing everything it can to support it over foreign brands in this time of need.

@gj8550 Жыл бұрын

@@tonysu8860 Trade surplus has a lot to do with domestic consumption. Chinese are buying domestically produced goods as opposed to imports, thus contributing to widening the trade surplus. Because of American chips export restrictions, Chinese are buying domestically manufactured chips. For a variety of reasons, Chinese are buying EVs rather than fossil fuel cars. Since China is the world’s largest EV producer, naturally Chinese consumers are buying domestically produced cars. US government was offering incentives for Teslas as well. Every government subsidies its industries. Following the recent passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act that offers tax breaks to certain domestically manufactured goods, Europe introduced the Green Deal Industrial Plan in retaliation.

@passby8070 Жыл бұрын

@@tonysu8860 Huawei was undoubtedly the king of Phones not just in China but around the world before the US clamp it down in so many dodgy ways. Huawei was the leader in telecom patents and on track to dominate every area telecommunication, the US got jealous and reacted in a way shows its true colors.

@davidrichards1741 Жыл бұрын

Even the US data shows that the US deficits are soaring higher than ever before. This is consistent with growing Asian trade surpluses. Therefore very believable. But the US market is already now secondary to China. The Chinese trade much more with the rest of East Asia today than they do with all of North America. And China's #1 customer is the local chinese, by far.

@happyhappynuts Жыл бұрын

@@passby8070 this just isn't true. In Europe, Huawei wasnt dominating and in fact is and was pretty rubbish, OPPO was and is more successful. Inside China, the government gave directions and hints to Unicom amd China Mobile to prioritise Huawei. In my company the only people with Huawei are party members, having bought a couple of years ago.