What to do about the energy transition? | Alan Finkel and Aidan Morrison

Рет қаралды 6,732

13 күн бұрын

Alan Finkel, former Chief Scientist of Australia, and Aidan Morrison Director of Energy at the Centre for Independent Studies discuss the energy transition, tackling the question of whether the current efforts should be redoubled, or whether a rethink is required.
Australia stands at a fork in the road. The current plan to transition to a system dominated by wind and solar is encountering headwinds, with infrastructure investments facing unexpected social, economic, and environmental challenges. Are we still on the optimal path to net-zero? Are we on a viable one?
As Alan said, "It's been a long time since I've had to convince an audience that climate change is real" so it is clear we are making progress in public discourse. However, with climate change is happening faster than we even expected it to, we urgently need a solution. But of the four options for clean energy we have handicapped ourselves by only accepting wind and solar. No one is talking about hydro and nuclear has been banned in Australia.
If we are to effectively tackle climate change, we need to have very good reason to take any clean energy source off the table and out of the conversation.
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Пікірлер: 165

@budawang77 10 күн бұрын

In other words, the real problem is that Australians are extremely conservative and parochial and can't (or don't want to) comprehend the big picture.

@handlethejandal 9 күн бұрын

@@budawang77 people don’t think about electricity beyond their home and more recently their car. Additionally they don’t understand the connection between prosperity and energy.

@lindam.1502 5 күн бұрын

@@handlethejandalnonsense

@peterforsythe3643 11 күн бұрын

Aidan’s presentation is spot on. How we’ve not taken account of so many costs in looking at the “Transition”. We MUST look at the present costs vs the alleged benefits way down the line.

@jimgraham6722 9 күн бұрын

Agree with Alan, The situation is potentially existential. Collapse is already happening in some parts of the world and are very likely to spread. Australia must act in making itself both secure and part of the solution. When it comes to nucleAr technology three or four standardised Canadian developed CANDU power stations, comparable to Canada's Darlington Nuclear Power Station would solve Australia's base load problem, which amounts to about 25% of total power needed. CANDUs are a reliable, mature technology and lend themselves to lower tech manufacturing. They have a very good safety record, are proliferation resistant and can burn a mix of nuclear fuels including low enriched uranium, waste from other reactors, and thorium, a metal Australia has in abundance. Their main downside is the initial added cost of loading them with heavy water.

@sao9995 9 күн бұрын

Existential? No, it's not. We don't even know if it is occurring, caused by man, or if we could (should) do anything about it. The only thing for sure is that climate alarmists are running wild.

@asabriggs6426 6 күн бұрын

@jimgraham6722 Yes I think CANDU (heavy water, unenriched uranium, or even the Clean Core thorium HALEU) is a good match, just like in Canada. The heavy water cost is far more predictable than other aspects of nuclear construction. One might argue that the lead times and a build program might enable Australia to develop their own heavy water manufacturing capability, so is money circulating around the economy. The heavy water plant might even be a good fit for solar thermal, for added credentials.

@sao9995 6 күн бұрын

@@asabriggs6426 I attended the opening ceremony for the US's most recently approved "fail safe" NPP. A contingent from the Indian Government was present. The company announced the purchase of three identical plants and an option for two more.

@handlethejandal 5 күн бұрын

Existential to modern society. agree. If one pandemic and a small war in Europe upended our economies and supply chains imagine what global coastal flooding will do. The question is not if but when and will we be dependant on foreign jurisdictions or will we be self reliant.

@marjgunn9511 2 күн бұрын

I don't understand how he can say last summer was hotter than ever. We never got past 35c. Normally, our summer temperatures are around 40/45c. The east coast had the most rain and flooding. So sick of the BS.

@Paulo44.01 2 сағат бұрын

The climate is different from your personal experience. Just look at a chart of average global temperatures and you'll see why people are concerned

@handlethejandal 10 күн бұрын

So if the last kW sold dictates the electricity price should we bypass the whole VRE vs nuclear debate as reframe the conversation as what is the second cheapest source of electricity to complement VRE's? Then the question should be: is it better to have gas peaking and batteries or nuclear to complement VRE's? (For context Gencost (Apx Table B.10) puts peaking gas LCOE (20% load) at between $138 - $296 /MWh and nuclear LCOE at $136 - $252 /MWh. So with the ISP's plan to have peaking gas run at 5% then the gas supplied electricity is most certainly going to be a lot more expensive than having nuclear in the mix.) gas/batteries vs nuclear: Environmentally: nuclear beats gas and batteries on emissions and mining Flexibility: gas wins Price volatility: nuclear wins as uranium is such a small component of the cost Compatibility with heavy industry*: nuclear is the only player as it trumps gas on emissions (and firmed VRE's on cost predictability) *For me the most important. As Aidan notes cement, steel, and global transport are the most daunting items on the decarb list and if Australia is not able to be price competitive with solutions then we are surrendering these most important decarb challenges to developing countries who may not share the same urgency and/or means as us to to prioritise. So if nuclear ticks most of the boxes then when it's bought online the regulator will have good rational to prioritise nuclear's contribution to the grid to negate the need for peaking gas. VRE's will be curtailed in the interest of long-term electricity prices and for environmental impact reasons. Then with all this stable nuclear electricity the economy (inc. green exports) will thrive and electricity rebates and the cost of living crises will be a distant memory.

@jimgraham6722 9 күн бұрын

Agree

@TimMountjoy-zy2fd 5 күн бұрын

LCOE per MWH is very difficult for Gas Turbine Peakers cos how much will they ever produce. Better to think like this. We build 15GW of Gas Turbine Peakers and we will never have to worry about a Supply Gap again and we can reach 90%+ renewables with that model.

@handlethejandal 5 күн бұрын

That's exactly the crux of the problem. The renewable crowd is fixated on an arbitrary renewable target at the cost of all else. The target should be sustainably low carbon electricity AND low as practicable electricity prices. The cost of electricity impacts every single aspect of our economy. Electricity prices are a fundamental input to our economic productivity and competitiveness. Cheap electricity (not to be confused with cheap capex) is the best economic stimulation that a government can deliver, it increases our competitiveness across the board allows an economy to thrive. Australia is currently a wealthy country, we should be aiming for the Rolls Royce solution. VRE's are great for developing countries as some electricity is better than no electricity but we need the best electricity in order to sustain our prosperity and contribute meaningfully to the global decarb project. Global warming will be expensive and we will need every dollar we can generate to get through.

@christophergame7977 5 күн бұрын

Don't try to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions.

@shaunbooth1836 10 күн бұрын

Aidan Morrison is the probably the best energy analyst in Australia. He knows more about the energy needs of Australia than AEMO and CSIRO combined. Aidan leaves Finkel in the dust when assessing the future of energy.

@Carbonalternatives 9 күн бұрын

@@shaunbooth1836 he’s a right wing puppet of the fossil fuel industry. He lacks any unbiased knowledge of the clean energy transition and is trapped by an archaic dogma. The facade of knowledge is not the same as industry experts and scientists.

@stevenmitchell7830 4 күн бұрын

Starting any discussion with "the question of climate change is settled and therefore..." is absurd. Certainly NOT an open discussion.

@christophergame7977 Күн бұрын

@@stevenmitchell7830 I would say that the science is settled: there is decisive scientific argument and evidence that the man-made carbon-dioxide-emissions global warming story is false.

@logicsconscience 4 күн бұрын

The problem with the nuclear option is the carbon released by old infrastrure in the 20+ years it will take to come online.

@aliendroneservices6621 3 күн бұрын

CO2 is not a pollutant. You've been using that exact same excuse for the past quarter century.

@Seawithinyou 4 күн бұрын

Watch Professor of minerals and metals Simon Michau along with Petroleum geologist Art Berman A very helpful truth regarding Green Energy and how much water is truly needed to power these data banks for this And where will the waste product of these solar wind power go along with the huge production of batteries We must save our Agricultural lands and not give away our gas and food supplies 🧐🕊🌍

@infinityubs 11 күн бұрын

18:54 we build a wind farm and reduce the risk of global warming? isn't Australia 1% of global emissions

@budawang77 10 күн бұрын

Believe it or not, we're not the only country trying to solve climate change.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@infinityubs what about the gas and coal we export that is burnt overseas. Does that count?

@factnotfiction5915 9 күн бұрын

@@budawang77 > Believe it or not, we're not the only country trying to solve climate change. Unlike France which decarbonized their electricity decades back with nuclear, and is now working on their other emissions sectors.

@budawang77 8 күн бұрын

@@factnotfiction5915 France indeed generates much of its electricity from nuclear. However, they built their nuclear plants a long ago when wind and solar were not viable technologies. France was and still is a more technologically advanced country than Australia with deep expertise in nuclear physics. Australia has no existing nuclear industry and would have an enormous challenge to build the required scientific and industrial capability almost from scratch.Despite its success with nuclear, France is planning to reduce its reliance on nuclear. Turns out nuclear reactors are not that reliable.

@aliendroneservices6621 3 күн бұрын

@@budawang77 "However, they built their nuclear plants a long ago when wind and solar were not viable technologies." Wind and solar have *_never_* been "viable technologies". They are *_infinitely-expensive,_* on a sustained basis.

@detectiveofmoneypolitics 6 күн бұрын

00:01 PUBLIC CHANNEL* Educate on Money * Credit * Debt & Politics * Keep it Simple ! Ham Radio Operator VK3GFS is following this great content 73s Frank 1:29:10

@alancotterell9207 7 күн бұрын

I can comprehend the big picture in one hundred years, if technology is not continually improved. The Liberal Party has totally stuffed science in Australia.

@johnk-pc2zx 7 күн бұрын

Well yes, they banned nuclear power....fucking bananas!

@4362mont 10 күн бұрын

Totally predictable, should have started sooner, it's going to hurt a lot, never believe 'the best', prepare for the worst.

@RichardCostello-wj8gy 8 күн бұрын

Aiden Morrison, seems to forget that the power of electricity, is being controlled by the many, not the greedy few. Roof Top Solar is definitely empowering for the individual, there are individuals who are able to make very good use of sharing their power generation. Australians are sick of the privatisation that is the true source of high power prices. Amusingly Nuclear power would be government owned because private business doesn't want the risk. Grid forming inverter technology continues to change the way 'baseload@ power is thought of ! More balance is needed in this debate.

@pascalbercker7487 5 күн бұрын

Rooftop solar empowers a certain class of people who own a home - and can afford the upfront installation. Poorer people like me in an apartment have no such opportunities - but privileged home owners can buy into the roof-top business which is partly subsidized by the state - and in the USA are guaranteed a certain resale price, whether or not the electricity provider needs the power or not. That raises prices for everybody else who can't afford that luxury. People tend not just to "share" their surplus - they tend to sell it.

@RichardCostello-wj8gy 4 күн бұрын

@@pascalbercker7487. Not buying a Submarine would allow all Australian households to be part of the transition 👍

@tonybaldwin6280 8 күн бұрын

Wind turbines and solar panels are rebuildable not renewable,require huge amount s of coal for their production. You won't smelt aluminium with rebuildables

@lindam.1502 5 күн бұрын

Aluminium smelting isn’t a huge percentage of our emissions 🤦‍♀️

@lisanorris7436 5 күн бұрын

@lindam.1502 seems like you're missing the point, aluminium is only one consideration, many industries require significant energy inputs that renewables alone can't deliver.

@Pratiquement-Durable 5 күн бұрын

Solar energy is cheap if you have low cost capital and if you use the electricity to produce green hydrogen, for cooling buildings or charging EVs when the sun shines. There are plenty of applications where solar energy is cheap, but it is much too expensive for base-load electricity.

@lindam.1502 5 күн бұрын

Way less expensive than nuclear ☢️

@aliendroneservices6621 4 күн бұрын

Wind and solar are *_infinitely-expensive,_* on a sustained basis. This was proven by Elon Musk.

@budawang77 10 күн бұрын

Why do I get the impression that Aidan is a gun for hire for big nuclear industrial interests?

@romanbrandle319 10 күн бұрын

Because he is.

@Goudofilms 10 күн бұрын

That is not how Aiden became involved in understanding and calling out the (deliberate) errors and omissions in both AEMO's ISP and CSIRO's GenCosts. Literally someone asked Aidan to look into them both and it all grew from there. Why is Aidan pro-nuclear? Because he is a Physicist and nuclear makes total sense to anyone wanting reliable, abundant, clean power.

@sao9995 9 күн бұрын

Who cares? If you really want CO2 reduction, why would you care if he worked for nuclear interests?

@johnk-pc2zx 7 күн бұрын

I don't care if he's paid by Satan himself. He brings strong arguments.

@budawang77 7 күн бұрын

@@johnk-pc2zx Really? Dr Finkel was much more convincing and clearly far more experienced and knowledgeable.

@liveleigh 3 күн бұрын

This guys figures are massively incorrect. I'd love to see the experiment, modelling anything that shows 75% of "GHG's" is C02 that is anthropogenic.

@RichardCostello-wj8gy 8 күн бұрын

Aiden Morrison avoids mentioning the cost of Nuclear Waste. The longer he spoke the more it seems he is supported by legacy power sources.

@factnotfiction5915 7 күн бұрын

The cost of nuclear waste is quite low. In the US, it has been set at 0.1 cents / kWh (decimal place is correct), collected at the time of generation. Clearly not a large % issue for costs.

@RichardCostello-wj8gy 6 күн бұрын

@@factnotfiction5915, your not including the security which in the USA particularly has escalated since 9/11, no one mentions this !

@factnotfiction5915 6 күн бұрын

@@RichardCostello-wj8gy you spoke of nuclear waste, not security - typical however, AGAIN the cost of the security is borne by the plant operator, so that is INCLUDED in the electricity price

@sao9995 9 күн бұрын

Australia should embrace fossil fuels while benefitting from alternative energy sources when and if it is economically feasible. Climate change is a baseless argument. CO2, as a culprit, was pulled out of a hat. The notion that climate change, if it could be determined to occur and was caused by humans, is the result of CO2 is absurd.

@RichardCostello-wj8gy 8 күн бұрын

We need Saul Griffiths, to be part of this debate ! Saul is already getting on with the job !

@budawang77 6 күн бұрын

@@RichardCostello-wj8gy Saul is excellent. One smart guy.

@douglasjones2814 6 күн бұрын

Which job is getting on with? His book The Big Switch is very poorly informed and plain wrong in places so which job?

@douglasjones2814 6 күн бұрын

We need Simon Michaux and real number crunching, not pie in the sky ideas.

@tonybaldwin6280 8 күн бұрын

With nuclear no one ever talks about the stable society required to look after the waste for 100000 years. Is that factored in to EROEI. If the whole world goes to nuclear there is enough reserves of uranium for 80 years and it doesn't address transport freight,only electrickity.

@asabriggs6426 6 күн бұрын

Where does the 100k years come from? What is the risk threshold? How much should we value 1 life in 100k years versus 100 years versus today? Would we be better off spending money on healthcare, sanitation and education elsewhere in the world today with the economic impact generated by nuclear, or by changing the risk thresholds of the nuclear repository?

@aliendroneservices6621 3 күн бұрын

Nothing subjected to *_Deep Isolation_* need be looked-after. Besides that, *_high-level "waste" already exists._* Therefore, the cost of managing high-level "waste" is already baked-in. So, the additional cost for new high-level "waste" *_would be zero._* "Reserves" have nothing to do with geology. Geologically, there remain 10 billion years' worth of uranium in the earth's crust.

@kymcampbell2734 4 күн бұрын

Finkle's found another hockey stick

@shaneullman4577 10 күн бұрын

"Hurry up and approve my renewables projects so I can make a fortune. I don't care about the dying birds, I need my money now! I'll be dead soon!" - Alan Finkel

@lindam.1502 5 күн бұрын

More birds 🦅 are killed by pollution and climate change than turbines 🤦‍♀️

@peterforsythe3643 11 күн бұрын

In Europe it’s a straight line up and to the right: The more the amount of RE in the economy, the more the cost of electricity. It’s simply wrong to say the Renewables are “cheap”. They’re not. Australia is the same. We’ve gone from cheap-ish electricity to amongst the highest in the world. Let’s go nuclear.

@romanbrandle319 10 күн бұрын

@@peterforsythe3643 Not true our electricity prices are the absolute average in the world, do your research before making BS claims.

@pascalbercker7487 5 күн бұрын

In September 2023, French people (non business rates) paid on average 27.2 cents per kWh, compared to 46.5 in the UK, 37.9 in Germany and 34.9 in the Netherlands. Italy and Spain rank lower at 23.9 and 19.4 respectively.

@lindam.1502 5 күн бұрын

Wrong 😑 AEMO credits renewables for bringing down the wholesale cost of electricity over Summer: Victoria and parts of NSW are getting 6% price cuts for their wholesale electricity, it’s up to the retailers to pass them on.

@user-rq2do4wg1b 11 күн бұрын

Dr Finkel's arguments were weaker than expected for a person of his statue.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@user-rq2do4wg1b were you watching the same presentation?

@asabriggs6426 6 күн бұрын

@@Carbonalternatives"17:09 quoting Hugh Mackay the BHP Chief Economist "The cure to high prices is high prices" ... not a great argument as that can also be applied to the nuclear learning curve!

@christophergame7977 5 күн бұрын

Stop Snowy 2.0 now.

@handlethejandal 5 күн бұрын

as outrageously expensive as it is I think the argument for completing is is very similar to the argument for nuclear. Large capex but extremely long and dependable life, pumped hydro also has a long history of working hand in hand with nuclear

@christophergame7977 5 күн бұрын

@handlethejandal Thank you for your comment. "In the long run, we will all be dead." In my opinion, both arguments rely, at least in part, on the man-made carbon-dioxide-emissions global warming scam, and are inadequate for a finite economy. If there is made a sound economic case for nuclear against coal, then I will accept that.

@patricksharp1063 9 күн бұрын

You cannot solve the Base load energy problem you solve nothing. Use Gas-based energy as a transition to Nuclear.

@hifivaliant8937 2 күн бұрын

Is energy transition like gender transition? Turning something that works into something that doesn't work? 😂

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

Aidans speech was an insult to Alan Finkels deep knowledge, industry experience and intelligence. It was devoid of any common sense and so biased towards maintaining the status quo. Carbon reduction targets are urgent due to delaying the energy transition and climate denial of the coalition. You will struggle to find a sensible person who thinks rooftop solar is the worst option. You need to broaden your thinking and expand your circle of influence. We didn’t do nuclear because coal was cheaper and we won’t do nuclear because renewables are cheaper and getting cheaper. You need to rethink your ideology as it’s trapped you into a narrowing path and dogma. 1:03:07

@danielmaher964 10 күн бұрын

He said rooftop solar was most expensive not worst. You should support legalising nuclear so we can get to net 0

@romanbrandle319 10 күн бұрын

@@danielmaher964You really don't understand the big picture, Siberia need nuclear power, Australia doesn't we all get to net zero or none of do. Your 20 century competitive thing will ensure mankind will fail.

@geoffreyrobertson6041 10 күн бұрын

Trashing and undermining someone’s argument is not an insult. Finkel is a sold out liar.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@geoffreyrobertson6041 it wasn’t a sensible argument but uniformed rant.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@danielmaher964 can he please explain how rooftop solar is the most expensive form of energy? 3.76 million systems producing around 3.75GW of electricity. That’s a lot of households making a bad financial decision. You cannot be serious.

@user-se2rz5cf3z 11 күн бұрын

Why is Australia becoming a third world country and being forced to keep our resources in the ground? Use them to make Australia a rich and powerful nation.

@PEdulis 11 күн бұрын

How short-sighted are you? Can you not see the wildfires caused by climate change already, also in Australia? How much hotter would you like it to be? Many countries are also already fighting with rising sea levels, others with extended droughts, a "storm of the century" every year or likewise floodings of a century every year but you just want to keep going as if nothing had happened? Seriously?

@450tank 11 күн бұрын

@@PEdulis Climate Alarmism is a mental illness.

@campcreekhill8933 11 күн бұрын

@@PEdulisyou can't be serious you poor brainwashed soul

@campcreekhill8933 11 күн бұрын

Australia is not being forced to keep it resources in the ground, it basically gives it away to foreign countries

@RojaJaneman 11 күн бұрын

Short term solution will only make it worse because it’s not fixing d root issue

@geoffreyrobertson6041 10 күн бұрын

Alan has always been a snake oil salesman when it comes to climate. As an engineer his first question should be “is there a problem?”. That would have saved him wasting his time with the rest of his climate spiel.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@geoffreyrobertson6041 are you a climate change denier?

@geoffreyrobertson6041 10 күн бұрын

@@Carbonalternativesno, the climate always changes, I’m a realist. The AGW hypothesis is bunk. There is NO EVIDENCE man is influencing global temperature. NONE bar fabrications based on spurious data and modelling.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@geoffreyrobertson6041 you cannot be serious. Yes, climate changes occur naturally but the link between rising Co2e emissions and warming is irrefutable. To take the opposite position is denying the facts.

@geoffreyrobertson6041 10 күн бұрын

⁠@@Carbonalternativesyour appeal to authority is worthless. CO2 levels are the result of temperature changes, they are not the driver.

@Carbonalternatives 10 күн бұрын

@@geoffreyrobertson6041 🤯😂👌🏻