For more analysis on China's industry and economy, checkout this playlist: kzfaq.info/sun/PLKtxx9TnH76T_4R7Lxs8QoDr64zlvt8SS

I dont think China's main aim is to sell this plane to foreign customers. Their main aim is to sell this plane domestically so that they can reduce their dependence on Boeing and Airbus.

China needs another 10 years to catch up in difficult fields such as semiconductors and aviation. 10 years sounds like a long time but in the grand scheme of things, it's actually really fast.

Market drives innovation/business venture. China has the market so it is natural for China to venture into this business.

The most difficult part of any product is from nothing to something. C919 seems to achieve this.

I remember what Chinese branded phones were like just 10 years ago. They were of poor quality and nobody took them seriously. If they keep at this, all they need is time.

You also forgot to mention that the top three largest Airlines in China are Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern. All three are government owned airlines so the Chinese government can dictate what airliners it wants to buy.

You don't have to run faster than a bear to get away from him. Just faster than your slowest friend! ;-)

6:29 Reminds me of the rocket launch industry. Funny how in that industry, Boeing has become a slow incompetent incumbent being the prime contractor for the multibillion dollar pork program: the SLS (Space Launch System) super heavy lift rocket, and the Starliner capsule. Though many argue that Boeing is also the incompetent incumbent even when it comes to passenger jets. See the failures in development of the now-grounded 737 MAX. Most see the turning point as when engineering-driven Boeing buying the finance-driven McDonnell Douglas. What ended up happening is all the finance management replaced the Boeing management. Which was great for the share price, bad for engineering and quality.

Balanced and erudite, without being self-consciously cool. Thank you.

Great video again Asianometry.

I believed COMAC wanted to buy Bombardier C300 when they had financial problems and US 300% duty but Canada stopped it. Now Canada has no industry either.

Kudos. I happen to fumble on this video. No doubt every nation would like make its own Planes. Having worked in DGCA, I appreciate your interest. All the best.

I see this same issue in everyday life. Much of what is worth doing is just plan hard and under appreciated. People don't appreciate the work and effort that has gone into the most mundane objects, and even coping many products is surprisingly difficult.

Some incorrect info. Y-10 is inefficient, but not that bad, it has flown to the airport in tibet, which is way more than 1 hour. Also, the C919 did not have a 5 year delay, the maiden flight is only delayed 1 year from 2016 to 2017, and the delivery was always set around 2020, and it will very likely deliver later in this year, so about 2 years delay.

You don't have to run twice as fast as a deer to catch it, you maintain a steady pace.

Most comprehensive and informative, as usual!!!

This is a nice assessment of the issue rather than bashing just for sake bashing.

I have a feeling China will do well. This looks like a great plane perfect for several different markets. Airbus and Boeing need some competition

well researched and explained

The intention to keep key technologies out of Chinese hands has always been there, aviation industry is no exception. However, China is working on complete supply chain in every industry, this is among the last.

7:34. "it can be very easy for a third wheel to be left behind". Wow, predicted Boeing’s 2024 wheel incident perfectly.

The tasks are only daunting if you just keep on watching. If you start working on it based on specifications, things becomes easier. The specs and data sheets is your guide. And your end point. Which is your product. Ex is the hydraulic or avionics system.

Human resources is the key. They couldn't make those exotic turbine blades before. Now they can. Continuous daily work will eventually get you results.

Airbus a220(Bombardier C series Jet formerly) is also a major competitor in this segment, So it will be really hard for the C919 to compete internationally, But it can sell well domestically.

This is awesome. Please do a video on MC-21 and CR-929

Great work, John! thank you.

Amazing video!

@ Asianometry - Excellent video, just like your others which focus on semiconductors. Please do a video on how China managed to crack open the secrets of jet engine design with their Shenyang WS-10 and others in the WS series. Thanks in advance John! And I've just subscribed.

I admire how you explain the business aspect of running an airline. You really know the topic.

I worked for Boeing Commercial Airplanes for 25 years. 17 years building the 747 and 8 years with Boeing A.O.G. I went to Shanghai to perform a pickle fork corrosion service bulletin. Boeing was investing in a M.R.O. there and had sent some personnel to assist in training the workforce. I had a chance to walk around some of the work the Chinese were involved with. I remember seeing a fastener that had been replaced by one with a larger diameter countersunk head. It was too high when torqued down which meant they needed to remove the bolt and countersink the hole to the correct depth. They had a different solution for it. They took a microshaver to the head to try and grind it down flush. The mechanic seemed terrified he had made the mistake to begin with. Of course it was repaired correctly in the end but it really made me wonder how many mechanics would pull shit like that for fear of losing their job. I witnessed enough stupid working in the Everett factory over the years. Some of the managers I worked for were clueless dolts.

"There are no blue oceans here." Man, that's a tough pill to swallow for upstart players, but it's the truth. Whether it wide-bodies, narrow-bodies, regional/business jets, or turboprops, each sub-market is already cornered.

I saw an interesting documentary about the early days of Airbus. One of the people who was involved in the design of the A320 recalled that back then, everyone was painfully aware that they would stand absolutely no chance taking on a competitor as renowned and established as Boeing if their product was merely as good as Boeing's. They though that they had to offer something much better than what Boeing had at the time. As much as I wish well to COMAC and am thrilled to see a new manufacturer potentially enter the market, the fact remains that not only the C919 isn't much better than today's A320 and the 737, it's not even on par with them.

To me the ARJ21 and C919 were never going to be the top of the industry. China never expected them to be. The issue is the second generation. That's when all of China' learning will matter. These two planes are mainly "testing" domestically and learning. That's how China works.

Your inside knowledge is amazing !!!!

This is enlightening 💡👍🏾

the Y-10 part has so many errors. firstly, the 707 rev part, i.e. the real Y-10 program was started near 1976, which was really really close to the "reform" era. It was there because at that time China didn't have a normal relationship with the "west", so buying planes from Boeing and etc. was not so easy. but shortly after 1978, China bought 747s and other 7x7 models, there was no need for a older gen 707 like plane. and you really don't need to add up little pieces like it was ordered by who like it would in the USSR. in China, even in the 70s, tech programs were managed by those who knew what they were dealing with. Mao only cared politics and some bits of foreign affairs. and also, Y-10 carried really quite a few very high level gov officials during her maiden fight. people were proud of it, not afraid. it is a 707 rev one and it is a long range model for continental trips. the "only one hour flight time" claim is way way off. finally, Y-10 program was cancelled not because it is so bad, after all it is already built and got her maiden flight. it is because it is a 707 type (narrow body) appeared in 1990. its direct competitor 747 were operated by Chinese companies for over 10 years at that time. basically no need for 707, that's why.

First Honda motorcycles were exact copies of American motorcycles.

Good work!

Good information.

I hope for their success, better than just duopoly airbus and boeing

Nice overview of China commercial aircraft industry. I did structural analysis for both ARJ-21 and C919 based on ALCOA alloys. However, China has to buy Alcoa alloys or redesign C919 based on materials they are going to use.BTW, C919 geometrically is exact copy of A320. I don't understand why Airbus do not claim patent infrigion?

Great video! Thanks!

Amazing research and historical data in amusing voice narration...

Wonderful analysis and videos! I wonder if you could talk about China's EV industry. Also, not sure if suggesting you raising the pitch of the sound recording (via editing) by one octave will hurt your pride. While I can adjust the KZfaq playback speed (I played some at 1.75X and the rest at 1.5X, and 1.6X would have been ideal if KZfaq allowed), KZfaq unfortunately does not adjustment of the voice pitch.

Problem is the jet engine, I don't call Ambraer and Mitsubishi truly independent if they still use US engines.

Actually the arj21 is similar to boeing 717 as the company that makes it used to assemble the md-80. The majers of comac c919 currently assemble the a320.

China isn't the only one, Mitsubishi also built their own commercial airplane but it has been put on halt coz of the difficulties in getting certifications and financial constraints ofcourse.

Wish China success with their airliner development. Hope to have cheap plane tickets for all!

Comac should innovate on the safety of commercial aircraft in case of failures.

China probably spent some 30+ years and countless state money into its commercial airliner program. But its technology sharing nature with the military means even if they didn't end up with a commercially viable product. They were making great strides in making large military transport aircrafts!

Airplane is a highmargin higest value added manufacturing on earth. From aluminium ore to an airplane one. Count it weight and expect how much the money value added in all through supply chain and huge employment. Thats why a big country who has it's market size and human potential can't ignore. Had Japan have it big market like China , It wouldn't have hesitate building it's own. Look at Brazil or Canada. The Canadian had it manufacturer Bombadier dissolved because of US pressure , not because Canadian plane does not good. So your comment seems to be a short sight.

Regarding the "indigenous" Chinese high speed rail technologies.. As the head of Siemens kindly put it, there is a lot of "overlap" between them and the patents of the German and Japanese HSR companies. Basically, China made trivial changes to existing technologies shared with them and then pretended they were created by the Chinese.

Question maybe you had mention this before but I did not see it but western countries requiring to help China workers on tech products they west would like to share, tech transfer, is it the same for Asian countries doing business in China? Like TSMC would need to teach China if TSMC was selling CPUs to China? Thanks.

Update: First C919 delivered for commercial service in December 2022

Not too bad when compared to Mitsubishi regional jet

The main reason China is developing their own planes is to keep up with Chinese demand for airliners. There is too much demand. China cannot wait years for an airliner. Also old planes have to be replaced with new planes because of air safety regulations. So there is a huge growing backlog for airplanes

I think a third airline manufacturer will be welcome by the market. Could comac be it?

The US decoupling program will force china to gain the know-how and experience in many field.. Without decoupling, i don't thing china will produce a viable passenger jet comercially because such product demand a very.......very high trust and confident.

i will never set foot on a max ever

A Chinese Comac jet for $20 million or Boeing and Airbus jet a $60 million may make the market think twice.

The 737 Max has self opening doors, it will open in flight so passengers can parachute out in an emergency. Perhaps it has a snake detector, so when it detects snakes on the plane, it opens a window.

Ih bdw, did you make a video about new Russian Chinese passenger plane yet? I would love to hear your thoughts about it.

China does not need their own version of the Boeing conglomerate, they should innovate on their own. The Indian/ Pakistanis have been the major thorn in the flesh of China. China needs to free themselves ideologically but keep a working friendship as the Indian continent has close tiles to the United Kingdom thus Americans who have no love for China and feel threatened which is not real as China really only wants smooth commerce between countries. The Americans want control which the Chinese will not accept.

It's good that they have at least something, even if it's 10 years behind. They have to be ready to withstand a period of Washington sabotage of supply of thousands of different parts. The most problematic component is the turbofan engines, where western producers like GE, Rolls Royce, Pratt&Whitney, CFM International have continued to increase fuel efficiency, despite the consolidations. The problem is as hard for China, as entering the club latest-generation chip producers.

I'm just happy to see China developing its own industries and reducing dependency on the west. It's amazing how quickly things get can get done.

im really skeptical about your claim that the aluminum alloy was "too heavy" there isn't that much of a difference in density between aluminum base alloys across the spectrum, although the strength, durability, corrosion resistance, and other material properties are hugely dependent on the manufacturing processes and controls associated with aerospace alloy component processing. I am a foundry guy by trade, and I have seen first hand how you can get double or triple the physical properties out of different versions of "the same alloy" that pixie dust you blow into the crucible, or alternatively the restriction of certain elements makes MOST of the difference. Being able to precisely control all of the other variables involved in metal casting or processing is just another deep layer of knowledge/application unto itself. I could make finished parts out of sand cast CA 954 aluminum bronze for like 1/4 the price of obtaining ampco alloy25, (for most peoples analyses were the chemically the same) but some customers saw 10x the wear properties of the ampco products vs my sand cast versions. its bonkers.

To say COMAC China's Boeing is inappropriate, as Boeing has lost its previous glory & reputation, it is better to call COMAC China's Airbus.

China today is like what Japan was back in the 1980s. I hope they can make it.

the real funny part is its mostly American because of all of the Technology, GE engines, and parts with some European parts and a little bit of Chinese parts.

Probably won't be able to export due to copyright breaches.

This plane is suspiciously similar to the Russian MC 21-300 that has just being flown

China will get there, despite the enormous challenges. Like in many other fields, China is shut out by the West on many technologies - but China can still develop its own Beidou navigation system, Space Stations, rockets - don’t count China out on semi-conductors, commercial aircrafts...China still has a market most nations want a slice of the cake, including US and EU. Let’s see who has the last laugh.

Boeing estimates China will need 8,600 planes over the next 20 years. 737 max and A320 each cost $ 100 million. C919 only cost $50 million. Chinese airlines Saving 8,600 x $50 million = $430 billion. Plus money does not leave the country buying imported planes. Money can be reinvested and recirculated back into the domestic economy. Also local jobs created along with domestic airline manufacturing industry.

👍very fair!

Here’s hoping for Chinas success!

It’s great to see China executing their own technology,its a great learning tool, China now no longer has to reverse engineer aeroplane technology now the have built their own so now comprehen what is required to build their own planes, just like the now know what it takes to build a processor chip that is competitive.

In the 14th minute of the film, the development of China's high-speed rail is mentioned, but the picture also shows Taiwan's high-speed rail. This is a completely wrong picture, because Taiwan's high-speed rail system has nothing to do with China!

They can buy all local airplanes. Boeing and Airbus will be closed out of a lucrative market

totally not a dreamliner body with a320 neo wings. also what a time to launch the c919 when the boeing 737 max is still grounded in china with no date for return to re-certification.

Airbus a300 , 320, 330, 340 especially was a copy of the Illuyshin so i dont see why everything others build should be looked at as Boeings or Airbuses. The Comac is a comac and lets give it its credit.

They wanted to name their aircraft industry after an obscure Star Fleet admiral.

China first lessons : this is not always done by reverse engineering, tech transfert, cheap labor, heavy state subsidies, copyright infringement, protectionism, debt trapping etc... You need to be good by yourself too - democracy can be a way to go to ensure this...

12:00 Don't forget the Russian MS-21. Ruskies are also competing in this segment and if their airplane does what they state is its performance, then it would be better in fuel efficiency and operating costs than Airbus A320 and Boeinh 737 MAX. Then there is the issue of MAX reliability. Boeing have undoubtedly undermined its good name and image or reliable vendor with the 2 crashes. Many airlines when they choose to go either Boeing or Airpus bpath are committing to long term partnership no doubt, but there are new airlines comming to market as the old, bulky and unflexible ones did not survived the pandemic travel crisis. So if there ever was a time to sell new airplanes to new companies, its comming now....

Airbus and Boeing had lots of success, starting with simple designs, working up iteratively to current very complex designs. It seems near impossible for China to jump into such a complex and competitive space. They can perhaps find a company with technology to buy or industrial espionage.

When it’s come to China the question is not if they can do it? More like when they’ll achieve it?

If Boeing 787 and A320 had a child

SHE FLIES

Whatever takes 50 years to make by the westerners, takes only 10 years or less for the Chinese. Space Station is the best example. Soon, I mean even before we know the domestic demand for flights in China will be greater than the USA and European domestic and the flights between the USA and Europe combined. That means COMAC will never need an international market. In fact, they will struggle even to deliver to the domestic market orders. Whatever you do in life never ever underestimate the Chinese. They have both the cash, very smart kids and willing to do things.

HI WHEN C919 WILL START COMMERCIAL FLIGHT, NEED TO SAY THAT

Interesting video, And wow, you pronounce "Pakistani" correctly; well done!

Where's my Xerox?

Good video, but you glossed over the Douglas MD80, which the Chinese partner nixed once the Tech and machinery were brought into the country.

Looking back on this in 2024, when the jet has been launched and Boeing is facing a death spiral this plane couldn’t have come at a better time for them.

c919 is a very good looking aircraft!

there's a big difference between how long it takes the first person to invent (come up with) a technology, innovate on it (r&d) and perfect it, and how long it takes the people who come after that, to basically work with a blueprint.

Provides an excellent insight into the aviation manufacturing progress by the chinese players and their (Chinese government) ambitions. Will China get there? (to becoming a viable competitor to Boeing and Airbus). Maybe, but at what cost? Wouldn't it be better to go do something quite different, such as a jumbo size drone?

do passengers get strap on parachutes...?

The Chinese and Russians are collaborating on a challenger to the 787 and A350. It’ll be China’s first wide-body airliner.

I thought rocket science was far more complex than civil aviation engineering. They built a Space station and still struggling to make an airplane.