That was peak Colonist honestly lol

😂😂😂

For a 40-move game, it's a 1 in 1470 occurence; unbelievably, it's not that unbelievable depending on how many games you've played.

@@danielspivak3926 that sounded wrong, but I went and checked the math and… yeah. Weirdly low

@@danielspivak3926 This game was over 13x more unlikely than your game.

40 move game is a very short game

​@@danielspivak3926 hey, are you a descendant of the famous Spivak who wrote the calculus book?

Good game bro

dont worry about it bro, good game!

I think that lying there is 100% fine. You didn't even volunteer that lie, he asked you what your dev was himself. It's like "If you don't want to hear lies, don't ask me what my dev cards are".

@@catanace1741 if you have to chose between losing and lying than its okay to lie every time

Yeah when it comes to the end game and people are 1 point away all bets are off as far as promises and honesty.

nah his starting position is great. He has wheat locked down basically in 90% of games. 2 rolling 10 times though kills the set up.

Psshhhh Idk about you but i aint weaker then them. lol stats dont show everything lol

Terrible take. Statistically he had a very strong position, he just got screwed by the numbers rolling poorly and then the other player lying about the dev card.

@@QYXP just reinforcing my point. Placing there leaves yourself open to being unlucky with dice rolls because you are only on 4 numbers. In a higher production spot he could have easily convinced whichever player took his original spot to trade him wheat because he is a strong trader. Catan is as much about playing the opponents as it is the statistics.

I don't know who these people are but I agree. playing the entire game with only 4 numbers and no chance to build a road ever is not good. expecially considering that whenever you get closer to the win your best tile will get blocked non stop so you will be playing out of 3 numbers. so expect full orbits with no resources at all... It was clear that 8-10 wood was better. took only 2 brick to get to the wheat port which should have been easy to get considering the value of the wheat he had. that would have also screwed purple game btw

In my future videos the mouse will be a lot bigger. These games are a bit older.

I assume he forgot the wheat port the entire game. The Twitch live chat also mentioned that.

I thought it was some sort of challenge where he wasn't supposed to use the port... Didn't make any sense otherwise

@@invisiblechild2006 it wasnt. he probably forgot it because he didnt got any excess wheat to port in the entire game. except for that one instance. the early 8's got blocked and the wheat he got he either used it himself or got pretty good deals with it.

I like those ideas! Thanks for sharing

He was holding for the ore mono for a while too

Lol Dylan has literally forgotten he was on a port before. Only a few videos prior he did that exact thing.

very painful

When was a good moment to port? I didn’t see any

@@SpencerTwiddy 8:53 he could have ported for a settlement on 8 ore

@@martinorell2 Ah okay. Sounds like at that moment he was only willing to lose 1 wheat for a brick

I felt like he gave away a lot of good trades where he could have ported for a similar result without the advantage to the opponent.

It's not meant to literally mean 1 in a million. The 0.01% Is just to show the viewers that it's an incredibly rare event. The odds of rolling a 2 with 2 dice at least 10 times in 75 turns is 0.000412% Or 4.12 in a million using binomial probability 🤓

@@kidkid I know its not an exact probability, just the difference between thumbnail and title of the video striked me at first glance :D

Needs to pull the rare vp otherwise he can't win. The city can be done anytime. If he waits and someone else pulls the VP he has no chance of winning.

Actually if he had gone for a city, he would have won

@@ForbiddenForLife69 yes in hind sight when you can see that the dev card is a knight that he draws. But you don't know that and you need to draw as many devs as possible. Also not sure his next dev card would've been a vp if he hadn't drawn the knight earlier.

@@jordanmartin1932 true, it’s a decision made based on the situation at that time

Using binomial distribution?

Oh neat! I made a similar comment above! My first comment: "I think your math may be a little bit off, Dylan! 😅 The actual probability of this happening is one in 22,965, so like one in thirty thousand. Your thumbnail and title contradict each other, with your thumbnail saying one in one hundred thousand, and your title saying one in a million. Both very far off from each other, and the truth! 1 in 1,000,000 is multiple orders of magnitude off! The numbers didn't seem right, so initially I ran the numbers to make sure and got the 22,965 figure. Then, just to make sure I hadn't made a mistake somewhere, I ran a Monte Carlo experiment (which is where you just do the thing a bunch to see if it matches your predictions) where I threw dice 75 times in a row 91,860 times. That way, I would expect a game with at least this many 2s about 4 times. I got 6 times, so my prediction appeared to be correct! If it was one in a hundred thousand like the thumbnail says, then it would occur roughly once, and occurring 6 times would be very unlikely. If it was one in a million, it just would not happen 6 times. That'd be a miracle! But I get it, the video looks more attractive this way, and I don't expect you to change your title (though who knows, maybe a more specific number will lead to more clicks). But golly did it bother me!😝Thanks for the brilliant gameplay!" And then my reply to that comment: "I just ran it again, this time 183,720 times, and a game with at least as many 2s as your game should have happened 8 times if my prediction was correct. It happened 9 times. So I'm fairly confident my calculations are right! The other interesting statistic is how many times you would expect a game with EXACTLY 10 2s. It doesn't actually change that much, that should happen 1 in 27,526 times, if my math is right. Once again, to check, I threw 75 dice 220,208 times, with the expectation that I would get EXACTLY this many 2s 8 times. I did it and it happened 7 times, whereas if it was one in a hundred thousand we would see it closer to 2 times. You may need to speak to your calculator, Dylan!" It's nice to see someone else confirm my math, aside from Monte Carlo 😁 - Kayla

Nah i was fighting him for Army and also keeping sheep out of his (dylan) and Blacks hand is key for me it hurts them both and slows them down. Also i wouldn't of blocked myself.

I just ran it again, this time 183,720 times, and a game with at least as many 2s as your game should have happened 8 times if my prediction was correct. It happened 9 times. So I'm fairly confident my calculations are right! The other interesting statistic is how many times you would expect a game with EXACTLY 10 2s. It doesn't actually change that much, that should happen 1 in 27,526 times, if my math is right. Once again, to check, I threw 75 dice 220,208 times, with the expectation that I would get EXACTLY this many 2s 8 times. I did it and it happened 7 times, whereas if it was one in a hundred thousand we would see it closer to 2 times. You may need to speak to your calculator, Dylan!