Thanks for sharing your computations and nicely explaining your methodology. Here's a couple other factors that you might want to think about for future computations. First, in a game we choose 4 cards from 6, which means that not all 4-card hands are equally likely. For example, 5TJQ is far more common than A38K. (An easy heuristic is: the more points a hand is worth, the more common it is.) In your loop, you could factor this in by weighting each hand by is score. Second, it seems a little strange to average over the dealer and pone. What if some hands really like going first and some hands like going second? Maybe it would be useful to know if there are any patterns for hands that are particularly good for the dealer or non-dealer. Third, (you mentioned it already but) a strategy for hands might be good to simulate and give more accurate values. On average, the dealer + non-dealer score from the play is closer to 5 than 4 (I think it's actually way more). If you don't want a hard-code strategy, you could use strategies that have variable parts like a 'prefered playing order' for each hand, or even some NNs or trees. But as you said, the optimal pegging strategy factors in what your opponent is most likely to have and that requires distilling a lot of information. Finally, maybe this was bait, but you said something about the non-dealer never leading a 5... I can't help myself! There are lots of times the non-dealer should definitely lead a 5 for safety. E.g. 5TJQ, if you lead the 5 and the dealer makes 15 with one of 9 remaining Ts, Js or Qs then you get your points back and avoid a lot of traps. Anyway, thanks for the very nice video.

Thanks, cribbage and probability / statistics: like it

A way this can be simulated is to use the average number of points for dealer and pone and use eg a standard distribution connected to these points. You then just run a simulation of the scores when starting on a different point. Of course the points per hand is not a normal distribution, but it might be enough to get a first estimate. Best regards Micke

I've just started looking at your videos and really like your clear explanations, thanks! I would like to watch them in the appropriate order, but are having some problems finding the suggested (chronological?) order. Can I suggest that you add an episode number at the beginning of each episode title 😊

Hi, I have been wondering how the probability of winning depends on each extra point a player starts with. This can be very informative. Eg if pone or dealer starts with one or two points how does this translate to winning percent increase. Is there any possibility you can simulate this? Best regards Micke

Do you simulate each hand to all possibilities or do each player always play their lowest card?