Futurist Ray Kurzweil Says AI Will Achieve Human-level Intelligence by 2029

Рет қаралды 333,219

JRE Clips

3 ай бұрын

JRE #2117 w/Ray Kurzweil
KZfaq: • Joe Rogan Experience #...
JRE on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4rOoJ6E...

Пікірлер: 2 200

@scottwitham4255 3 ай бұрын

Joe: Asks a question This guy: "Exponential growth"

@UnknownUser-fe5zu 3 ай бұрын

😂

@mas-udal-hassan9277 3 ай бұрын

[The secular West’s double standards are glaringly evident from how they deal with “irrationality”. When this so-called irrationality is linked with religion it’s a problem. However, when it comes to things like “gender fluidity” it’s completely fine. Another example that can be mentioned is how the “clairvoyant” Edgar Cayce was extremely popular during the early 20th century. And it’s the same story when it comes to aliens. The secular West, unable to fight its innate tendency to believe in the ghayb, proposes the likely existence of a non-human species that could communicate with our world - the same way Muslims believe in the jinn Of course, all of this is done in the name of their own religion: science. They even have their own priests in the form of astrobiologists, etc. This belief of theirs is of the same nature as ours. Even if they try and add some pseudo-empiricist spice: there may be tangible elements pointing towards the existence of aliens. They fail to grasp how we, too, say there are “tangible elements” regarding the influences of the jinn within our world.]@@UnknownUser-fe5zu

@chriscollins4539 3 ай бұрын

I was thinking this through the entire clip lol

@caleb7475 3 ай бұрын

J:So Elon said you can't do that Guest: Well he's not taking into account exponential growth

@phoenixmodellingphotography 3 ай бұрын

"Oh my! You're sooooo big for me Mr Kurzweil teehee!" Ray Kurzweil: *"Exponential growth"*

@Prometeu- 3 ай бұрын

Jamie pulls that up faster than he hands over a piece of paper...

@xaviergough9359 3 ай бұрын

Oh he Googles real good, guys. Pathetic. Kurzweil is a polymath.

@marcusash7 3 ай бұрын

@@xaviergough9359It’s always an Xavier lmao. Jamie does his job well, allow him.

@dominiquedorsey4197 3 ай бұрын

hes trained well

@akhilsharma83 3 ай бұрын

Jamie is an AGI all this time we didn’t know.

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

Someone please tell him about the Interweb

@richardbroadway7190 3 ай бұрын

My skepticism is rising exponentially

@benbochenek4955 3 ай бұрын

Hell yeah. This was painful but I didn’t want to miss it.

@GrumpDog 3 ай бұрын

So you didn't understand the seriousness of the implications? And the proof that it's happening with AI right now?

@93_til 3 ай бұрын

hahahahah 10000000%

@DSpartantv 3 ай бұрын

Lmao...mine too

@GeoffBournes 3 ай бұрын

Along with your fear.

@EricJacobusOfficial 3 ай бұрын

Ray's kid: I don't want 65 hamburgers Ray: you're not thinking exponentially

@swphittman215 2 ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂😂😊

@Imdirtyydan 3 ай бұрын

What I gathered … It’s growing exponentially, it’s all growing exponentially, exponentially.

@phnix6242 3 ай бұрын

Until its not anymore……. We had people on who explained transistors cant fet much smaller becsuse we are in sub-cellular scale Some stuff is just a few atoms wide on COUs Theres a limit And we being totally solar powered in 10 years is total bullshit……

@CantTellYou 3 ай бұрын

lol what I gathered: everything ever will happen within the next decade because Kurzweil needs to be here to say “told ya so”

@DantesHQ 3 ай бұрын

I don't get why everyone is giving this guy a hard time. He is trying to drill expontentials into your head so you can start thinking in those terms, especially since everyone thinks AI is moving linearly. 5 years ago we had bare bones systems, but now we have models that exceed human performance in a lot of areas, do perfect image generation and even really good video gen with SORA. This progress will keep doubling and doubling until we are reach AGI which will be to improve itself and then this chapter of humanity closes.

@GrumpDog 3 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQ Kinda sad how that is flying over so many peoples' heads here.. This guy predicted the progress we're seeing now, nearly 30 years ago, progress that demands major changes to how our world works, and yet most people here are still acting like the people in the movie Idiocracy..

@alexi111 3 ай бұрын

🤣

@jeezumcrow1007 3 ай бұрын

I like how the futurist pulls out a printed out graph

@freddiecuffe4688 3 ай бұрын

Lmao I was thinking the same thing. Futurist didn’t even laminate the documents

@thanos879 3 ай бұрын

Right lol. A primitive sheet of paper. You would expect a futurist to be on the cutting edge of technology.

@NETBotic 3 ай бұрын

@@thanos879 Years ago I predicted that futurists would still use paper documents.

@inspectorcrud 3 ай бұрын

Yeah, he should have projected it onto Joe's face with a laser or something

@SaltyEntropy 3 ай бұрын

A futurist who writes books is pretty funny

@iovie 3 ай бұрын

Ray Kurzweil and his books are pretty legendary. He was the person who popularized the concept of the singularity to the mass public with his chilling explicit descriptions of what future technological milestones would look like and when they would occur which he wrote as if they were facts. He then single handedly defended his predictions throughout his life against the entire world community of critics and pessimists coming from all areas of science and the media. He is still standing today.

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Ray liberally interprets obvious failures as successes. Anyone can throw out general claims and defend them, that isn't special. For example, he claimed in the '90s or early 2000s that by 2009 most kids would learn how to read from computers before going to school. He claimed that was an accurate prediction, despite it not even being in the same ballpark as true today. He claimed it was accurate based on a single paper that stated as much as 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Note that: 1) 9% is not most 2) The paper did not say how they learned 3. There was no discussion on what trend may or may not exist Anyone claiming that was a successful prediction deserves truckloads of salt for other things they claim. When you dispense with his vague, obvious, or restated what someone else said or is doing "predictions" he has as abysmal of a record as any. And by obvious, I mean to experts. For example he "predicted" the fall of the USSR. However, that was a done deal for experts years before he said it - it was considered obvious and inevitable by the experts. Just because the common folk lacks the knowledge doesn't mean he is special for 'predicting' what the experts have already asserted is inevitable. Claiming in the 90s that computers will have cameras and replace the use of phones is another one. That was done on mainstream broadcast television in the 60s and predicted even back then. How about nanotech eliminating "most diseases" by the 2020s? So far not a single one has been. You're not going to exponentialize your way to that one in the next 5 years. I wouldn't call him a hack, though IMO "futurist" is largely a synonym for it. But he isn't actually good at objective, novel predictions on technology advancement, let alone social ones.

@TonyCecala 3 ай бұрын

Truth. Taking his worldview will help you skate to where the puck will be. That he looks to be slowing down, or dresses funny, does not take away from his core insight that expands Moore’s Law backwards in time to an age before computers.

@jsfnnyc 25 күн бұрын

And then people worked to bring about his predictions. Funny how it works that way.

@yingle6027 3 ай бұрын

Bruh I haven't even reached human level intelligence yet. 2029 a laptop is smarter than me. 😭

@Michael-hb3ip 3 ай бұрын

If your say "bruh" your opinion at that point DOESN'T MATTER LOL

@clrs6576 3 ай бұрын

😂😂😂

@talkdatalk1002 3 ай бұрын

the laptop is far smarter than you now as well as ur phone

@RaiBread. 2 ай бұрын

No lol... @@talkdatalk1002

@marcusrosales3344 2 ай бұрын

@talkdatalk1002 Your response is based off the same phenomenon when a cat attacks itself in the mirror. The cat thinks the reflection is real, but it just mirrors what the cat does. This is CURRENT AI! It is a reflection of us, very little real understanding. A laptop itself isn't "smart" btw...

@Redbird1504 3 ай бұрын

"I wasn't aware" - Joe Rogan calling bullshit

@ollybreh95 3 ай бұрын

You think Rogan has the ability to call bullshit on Ray Kurzweil? You obviously don’t know who Ray is…

@4thorder 3 ай бұрын

@@ollybreh95 Agreed. I watched the whole interview and half the interview was useless. Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but he didn't interview him, he spoke at him. Ray has a high level of accuracy in his predictions and is very intelligent person.

@RichOffKs 3 ай бұрын

“All renewable in 10 years? 🤔🤔🤔”

@aztekwarrior23 3 ай бұрын

You have more faith In a comedian?! 😂.. As Joe says to all his followers

@benkrauz725 3 ай бұрын

@@ollybreh95yeah he's the dumbest genius I've ever seen

@jopo7996 3 ай бұрын

I think Joe is finding this hard to follow, because all he's thinking about is how sweet those suspenders would be with his little rascals hat.

@kotycassidy6955 3 ай бұрын

That made me laugh thanks😂

@UnknownUser-fe5zu 3 ай бұрын

Facts

@AndrewV1023 3 ай бұрын

Almost spit my coffe out 😂

@davidbelen7199 3 ай бұрын

Remember when Bill called his kangol hat a lil rascal hat. He's never worn it after that ...😂

@zillionfurball1451 3 ай бұрын

@@davidbelen7199I was about to say the same thing 😂

@durandondemand 3 ай бұрын

Basic gist: It's growing exponentially. But are you? I'm still hopeful for those who are urgent in all things to maximize their potential, exponentially!

@derekstaroba 2 ай бұрын

Ill remind you this is the same guy who said he hates humans and hopes robots reign Supreme. Cant blame him tbh

@Antwhitehead 3 ай бұрын

Joe: Can we pull it up online? Futurist: What’s online?

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Even funnier: he "predicted" in the 90s that by 2009 digital documents will have fully replaced paper documents. He considers that prediction a success, despite still using paper documents in 2023/2024.

@Antwhitehead 3 ай бұрын

That's hilarious@@IAmTheRealBill

@clintonleonard5187 2 ай бұрын

This futurist predicted the internet before "online" existed. Literally.

@Antwhitehead 2 ай бұрын

@@clintonleonard5187 yet he looked at Joe like he has 3 heads when he asked him if they could pull up the information on the paper printout that he was handing across the table.

@welcometoreality437 2 ай бұрын

@@Antwhitehead most likely because he was trying to advertise his book and posting information like that would undermine it.

@thanos879 3 ай бұрын

I had to pause it at 8:00 and scroll to the comments to make sure everyone called bullsht after hearing that 😂

@dominick253 3 ай бұрын

Same!!!

@user-cg7dg7uv8f 3 ай бұрын

LOL Same here - At 8:09 I was like “I don’t know if I find this credible” and went to the comments. Glad to see most everyone else’s bullshit meters went off as well

@mrgobbleton 3 ай бұрын

😂 literally just did this

@tertiusgous8348 3 ай бұрын

😂 8 minutes seems to be the bull shit handling standard

@brushstroke3733 3 ай бұрын

I went there as soon as he started talking about solar power around 6:00. Glad to see Joe's listeners are a lot smarter than this quack.

@Joey_Stringfellow 3 ай бұрын

This was an exponential waste of time..

@chazmandingo5396 3 ай бұрын

You won't think that in 10 years

@alfredoj9791 3 ай бұрын

@@chazmandingo5396 the only thing that exponentially wasted here is your comment.

@matthewgrogg6375 3 ай бұрын

I can’t say for sure but I believe this was sarcasm, I’ll give it 10 years to be certain though

@jamesallenyz431 3 ай бұрын

Best comment here. Dude was so full of himself

@CantTellYou 3 ай бұрын

Disagree. We get to watch Rogan lose faith in his former hero, in real time!

@selfawarepotassium 3 ай бұрын

This dude couldn’t look any less like the image of a futurist I had in my head. He looks more like an accordion player.

@SandNebula232 3 ай бұрын

I’m making exponential gains of brain damage the more I watch this

@glorfification 3 ай бұрын

Once it has human level intelligence, it will just spend all its time on social media, trolling people and reading celebrity gossip.

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

And playing video games

@jedi4049 2 ай бұрын

simulates itself on drugs and alcohol

@clintonleonard5187 2 ай бұрын

Human level intelligence - not exactly the same as being human. A computer wouldn't waste time trying to release dopamine. It doesn't produce dopamine.

@Aohhmadone Ай бұрын

@jedi4049 And if humans want it dead we can just spill water on it. Tzz tzzssss😂😂😂

@lawrencelawsen6824 29 күн бұрын

Also coming up with daydreams that have no relevance whatsoever

@MathGPT 3 ай бұрын

I love that he brought a printed graph. Old school!

@user-ty9ho4ct4k 3 ай бұрын

Old-school futurist

@richardbroad2848 3 ай бұрын

Bless him!

@awfulpwn 3 ай бұрын

A lot of you guys don't know how important Ray Kurzweil is and it shows.

@brushstroke3733 3 ай бұрын

Important how? To whom?

@zrblank 3 ай бұрын

Rogan has a lot of ignorant followers and it shows, you can see the contrast over on fridmans interview

@RaggedAdam 3 ай бұрын

I've seen transcendent man. The guy is a bit of a lunatic.

@zsombornagy3935 3 ай бұрын

@@brushstroke3733He's important to Larry Page... and Neil DeGrasse Tyson, need anymore?

@brushstroke3733 3 ай бұрын

@@zsombornagy3935 NDT is a windbag, so that just undermines RK reputation even further. Larry Page likes RK - well whooptie doo.

@KennyVert 3 ай бұрын

Thank you very much for uploading these digestible clips.

@jeremy454 3 ай бұрын

He has the same problem AI has with not being able to say I don’t know

@honkytonkinson9787 3 ай бұрын

It’s like the cat in the box, until he knows he simultaneously knows and doesn’t know so exponential growth!

@hamzahhassan9861 3 ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂

@No_Limits_411 2 ай бұрын

Cos it will be exponential...

@Jake-Day 3 ай бұрын

Remind me in ten years KZfaq.

@JarrodDSchneider 3 ай бұрын

In ten years time KZfaq’s reminders will have grown exponentially, meaning you won’t be able to find the recommendation for this video because there will be too many to sort through.

@KeCasgrimola 3 ай бұрын

in ten years i’ll be exploring andromeda galaxy because agi in 5 years, asi in 6 years, and in 10 years we’ll have made 10 million years of technological progress @@JarrodDSchneider

@phoenixrising7047 3 ай бұрын

Come back to this video in 10 years. Won't be long. Will be interesting to reflect on this mans position on things.

@MacDaddyC7Z06 3 ай бұрын

Reminding you about it at 18 hrs.

@boiboiboi1419 3 ай бұрын

See u next year

@user-jr6rt6ex9e 2 ай бұрын

hello everyone in 2029 i hope i’m doing great in life rn

@davekush3171 3 ай бұрын

I listened to the whole episode. The asymmetry between this man's understanding of tech vs his understanding of humanity is dangerously immense!

@davekush3171 3 ай бұрын

The perfect example of "we will invent it in somebody else will figure out how to handle it"

@Feedmezz 3 ай бұрын

His predictions are partly based on the fact that he’s 77 years old so it needs to happen before he dies lol

@ocallesp 3 ай бұрын

5 years from now.... that is not easy for someone that is sick or too old

@mas-udal-hassan9277 3 ай бұрын

@@ocallesp😅😅😅

@DioBrandoWRYYYYYY 3 ай бұрын

Kurtzweil is actually a cook who believes that eventually everyone is going to live forever

@timothyvincent3436 3 ай бұрын

Or he figures he will be dead soon so why bother changing his mind now. F it. Kind of like Keynesian economics.

@rockerdude86 3 ай бұрын

@@ocallesp he's been saying this for 30 years

@Overloaded877 3 ай бұрын

People who say AI will never replace humans are in the first stage of grief = *Denial*

@michaelkupfer3723 2 ай бұрын

The AI needs us more than we need it

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

Depends what you mean by replace

@dwaynelattimore819 3 ай бұрын

Man Kurzweil is getting old. Hope he lives to see the Singularity

@billj4525 3 ай бұрын

He plans on living forever. He just said it on Lex Fridmans podcast like a year ago. He thinks he will.

@clintonleonard5187 2 ай бұрын

He's been focused on living forever since the 90s. He eats a really strict diet and takes a regimine of supplements.

@DarthMohammedRules 7 күн бұрын

For a guy in his late 70s, I'd say he's doing pretty well.

@nicolasbascunan4013 2 ай бұрын

This is the new Tower of Babel.

@1214gooner 3 ай бұрын

Ray’s own computational power seems to be sputtering😂

@djadsbeats 3 ай бұрын

Ray.I

@dadisonline 3 ай бұрын

Exponentially

@joshuaedwards3322 3 ай бұрын

Sure seems that way, but he's smiling like the cat who ate the canary... He's been working with computer intelligence before most of us were allowed off the porch. Also, he knows 3.5 million sheeple are watching. "How do I give them enough to be terrified, but not so terrified that they actually get off the couch and do something about this grape-session they are about to receive"?

@CantTellYou 3 ай бұрын

idk about that, he’s clearly a ventriloquist dummy

@andrecheers9169 3 ай бұрын

Facts

@samtesla2248 3 ай бұрын

Bearable at 1.3 speed.

@nobody-cl1xr 3 ай бұрын

Fixed it

@microchrist6122 3 ай бұрын

He sounds so normal at that speed it seems like this is a slowed down joke haha

@EolosMusic 3 ай бұрын

You’re the kind of person that needs a subway surfers video put on the side, bc of your short attention span 😂😂😂😂

@sonnylambert4893 3 ай бұрын

@@EolosMusic⁠Somebody makes a observation that is obvious to the majority of us because the guest is speaking extremely slowly. And meandering also I might ad, as if he’s hoping what he saying will make logical senve as he goes along. So in his and your own ideological defence, I am assuming ! you decide to insult that comment or, And many others who are agreeing, by saying they have some sort of attention deficit. So just what “of person are you”!😂

@blinkers88 3 ай бұрын

@@sonnylambert4893what on earth are you rambling about

@benbochenek4955 3 ай бұрын

This was painful. I did make a calendar reminder for 01/012029 with a link to this video. I’m going to test my current scecptisim and BS meter

@DantesHQ 3 ай бұрын

You wont have to wait for 2029, AGI will be here in 2-3 years.

@ryankueter8396 3 ай бұрын

😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

@webcamrandomness14 2 ай бұрын

31/12/2029

@andrewstotz4689 2 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQno it won’t

@Octwavian 2 ай бұрын

let's just hope the internet still exists by then...........

@thestarseeker8196 3 ай бұрын

I get the interview is a little sleepy but do people here really not know who Kurzweil is?

@Good.Glacier 3 ай бұрын

Exactly my friend! A bunch of idiot savant bashing a true gentle Genius, Ray easily is still in the top 20 minds on the Planet right now. How disrespectful Joe has become.e, Joe is straight up a Dunce, he thinks his talking points are intelligence....what a dink.......what this chat shows specifically is that America is in great trouble when the vast majority actually think Joe is more intelligent and on point than Kurzweil.....I mean did they forget about Ramona? Tons of companies usurped Ray's work over the years, he alone basically invented AI with that project alone.

@z1z2z3z 3 ай бұрын

I read two of his books, dude is a self aggrandizing hack who moves the goalposts continually to make his predictions 'correct' and then has the gall to brag about it, an intellectual for nit-wits.

@lewisburton1852 3 ай бұрын

right! crazy. "he developed the Kurzweil Reading Machine-the first machine that could read printed and typed documents aloud." and that's just one thing.

@TornSoul062473 3 ай бұрын

No. No, they don't.

@eliaskahila 3 ай бұрын

Judging from this comment section, man, I think most have absolutely no idea who he is and how legendary of a career he has had.

@southoc1355 3 ай бұрын

Every answer “exponentially” 😂😂😂😂

@brenthekideire 3 ай бұрын

I'm still waiting for the hoover boards from back to the future.

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

Ray is still working on his flux capacitor made from kitchen parts

@epicswirl 3 ай бұрын

Do you mean hover? Or like a Hoover vacuum you can ride?

@shaunbauer78 2 ай бұрын

Antigravity tech is still strictly area 51

@LowkeyFish 3 ай бұрын

Ray Kurzweil is a legend. Most of you guys are the crazy ones...

@eliaskahila 3 ай бұрын

Yes, he really has an incredible career and life-of-work and he has been spot on on predictions as well. He is old, and having a tired day here, but judging from the comments here I feel people have no idea who he is. If they knew who he is, the comments wouldnt be like this. Sorry for Ray!

@nychris2258 3 ай бұрын

Yes, unfortunately most of Joe Rogan's audience are m0r0ns... Kurzweil is getting up there in years. He was a lot sharper at explaining this stuff 10 or 20 years ago. He's been accurately predicting the growth of computing power for like 50 years now.

@rohithkoteval1785 3 ай бұрын

Yes

@billj4525 3 ай бұрын

Well yeah, 90% of the comments on any youtube page are full of stupidity.

@AbdullahMikalRodriguez 2 ай бұрын

Ray is bat shit crazy. He wants to revive his dead father with AI. These futurists have some serious personal issues...

@SpeakerOfWords 3 ай бұрын

I'm hallucinating, exponentially

@Monsux 3 ай бұрын

What is freaky about AI intelligence… The exponential growth. Start may seem slow, but learning rate isn't linear. Look back one year, two years, three years… Now make predictions for next year or two. It's going to be a wild ride.

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

Precisely....and anyone who has had a kid has observed this in humans....they sometimes take a LONG time for their first word...and then 2 months later they are talking... Same with reading...I have a cousin who was slow to read....was concerning...but then she reached a threshold and just suddenly was reading everything like an adult

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

The learning rate is a constant mate. It is linear by definition. Dynamic learning rates aren't really mainstream yet. Or do you mean loss?

@1214gooner 3 ай бұрын

“We don’t need nuclear, we have sun and wind and 10 years.” “I’m sorry sir, the only truth here is that you yourself have less than 10 years of life.” “No, I have another 100 years. It’s exponential growth.”

@andreavanda5402 3 ай бұрын

Yup, years ago he said this was a race of beating the AI clock before his own demise.

@inspectorcrud 3 ай бұрын

He's actually slightly younger than Sly, hard to believe I know

@replynotificationsdisabled 3 ай бұрын

everything is nuclear

@dertythegrower 3 ай бұрын

@@replynotificationsdisabledNo... the one in Miami has been leaking.. my first video is in the closest public park lake to it.. i know more sorry, its not safe. Undeniable science.

@dertythegrower 3 ай бұрын

Not safe.. the miami plant is leaking.. end of convo you lose.

@Ravum 3 ай бұрын

The 2 important questions about AI that people never ask: 1. Will it appear on jre as a guest? 2. Will authorities find a dismembered body in its house afterwards?

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

If an AI bought a house before us, I'd be pissed. Sell it to humans dammit.

@coastcity7029 3 ай бұрын

AI will be so smart in the next decade that people will begin worshipping one like a God

@kirkfabrin4839 3 ай бұрын

Yep.somepeople are already at that point now with their phone!

@billj4525 3 ай бұрын

In terms of usage yeah. The guy with the comment about the phone is right. Technically some people are already there with their phone.

@shanebplante 2 ай бұрын

Ai will make us gods

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

As a computer scientist, I would cringe so hard

@familyfulkerson3257 3 ай бұрын

Guys, I'm an old fart and therefore know this guys story. He is hands down the most famous futurist, and for being right.... Bill gates called him the best predicter of future tech he knew. I do not personally have an opinion about this current conversation. I also, can't tell if he is speaking broadly or not. Or if he is speaking functionally possible vs actually implemented. What I want to say is, his background is incredible. He invented some very impressive tech back in the day before becoming famous as a futurist. If you are into this kind of information, it is worth your time to do a deep dive on Ray Kurzweil. I will say, his age is showing and that is painful to see. I've been with tech every step of the way. These last couple yrs have been the most dramatic, and that makes sense in the context of exponential growth. Its the later steps that see the biggest jumps. I do not rule out what he is saying in terms of technically possible, but sadly, I do not see humans functionally implementing it that quickly.

@Good.Glacier 3 ай бұрын

💯 this chat full of idiot Joe worshipers, Ray's mind still is in the top 20 of everyone on the Planet, he literally invented AI with "Ramona"

@collinbergkamp7077 3 ай бұрын

I hear you. This comment section is sad and says a lot about where Rogan's audience is these days... painfully dumb.

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

Good analysis, but Ray has clearly lost touch with feasibility. Just his argument about the grid was so far off, it was exponential

@elijahspears5778 3 ай бұрын

Yep. One of the most prolific inventors ever. People don't really know who this dude is.

@z1z2z3z 3 ай бұрын

I know Ray, read "the singularity is near" book like 15 years ago, almost 100% of his predictions fell flat on their face. Then he wrote another book about how right he was and just moved the goal posts for all his predictions. Bill Gates praised him? you mean the college drop-out who buys out governing bodies and then makes his money off forced medical treatments? cool story

@TheGodlikeParagon 3 ай бұрын

99.7% over 35 years is not exponential growth, that's less than doubling.

@Selfsufficientme 3 ай бұрын

It's ALWAYS 10 years away... abundant energy, cure for cancer, end of the world etc etc... 😀👍

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Even YS congressional budgeting is based ion "the next ten tears" and we can see how terrible that winds up.

@Jagar_Tharn 3 ай бұрын

But it's 5 years away. You didn't even read the title of the video did you?

@G73Server 3 ай бұрын

Yea those things actually helping people are kond skept under a rug, this shito tho? Uncontrollable, we are going to see it in the next (few) year(s)

@Jagar_Tharn 3 ай бұрын

@@G73Server kond skept shito???

@gabes3dvideos 3 ай бұрын

Total faith in scientism is exponentially embarrassing with age.

@Natsirt666 3 ай бұрын

Scientism?? That's... not a thing my dude...

@zrblank 3 ай бұрын

Tf is scientism lol

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

@@zrblank something you could look up on the Internet. it is essentially a quasi-religious belief that science and the scientific method are the only way to render truth about reality. That said, the OP seems to be misunderstanding it.

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

@@Natsirt666 yes it is, my dude. But it isn't what the OP seems to think it is.

@shiddy. 3 ай бұрын

same as any ism

@R.Gresco 3 ай бұрын

What a marvelous toupee

@Jay-407 3 ай бұрын

Exponentially

@martinsatyen7833 3 ай бұрын

@@Jay-407Toupeexponentially

@victorr2245 3 ай бұрын

This exponential discussion was exponentially exponential.

@Michael_Jackson187 3 ай бұрын

Scientist: we have no idea where consciousness comes from. Computer bros: yea bro it will be able to be self aware. Have you guys ever seen the graph where the line is forever about to touch the other line but never crosses or touches it? Thats us.

@atomtamadas 3 ай бұрын

This guy is the Peter Zeihan of technology :D

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

I think zeihans hair is natural tho...

@justinkassinger8238 3 ай бұрын

Peter is right on mostly everything. Just cuz your one of the people who buys into the "the dollar is dying, buy gold!" Scam. Don't be mad that your a sheep

@brushstroke3733 3 ай бұрын

😂😂

@jeltoninc.8542 3 ай бұрын

What are some things Peter has been wrong in? Genuinely interested as I have watched some of his vids but I’m not a fanboy or anything. I just like watching people hike and talk 🤣

@MrExtr1234 3 ай бұрын

Not even close😂 guy's an engineer/scientist, zeihan is just some smooth brain commentator

@jeffpost5709 3 ай бұрын

This dude sounds like he’s talkin out his ass

@nathanthegod731 3 ай бұрын

Agreed

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

I think his geomagnetic poles are in the middle of shifting...

@terenceflanagan1225 3 ай бұрын

He is

@TeresaBelcher02 Ай бұрын

Great interview Thank you for having Ray Kurzweil on I have followed him for years, he is an extraordinary man.

@matthewmiller2206 3 ай бұрын

A futurist who brings paper charts to a podcast… checks out.

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

who predicted that in 2009 we'd see the end of paper documents as they'd be replaced by digital documents. 😂

@sinnwalker 23 күн бұрын

@@IAmTheRealBillhe also predicted in 90 that AI will beat the world chess player by 98, it happened in 97.. not all his predictions are correct, but most are. AGI hasn't happened yet, but he made the prediction of by 29 it will occur, decades ago and most literally thought he was insane. Now after years they all agree with his timeline.

@chaselepard 3 ай бұрын

Duncan's dad seems nice

@alexrangel490 3 ай бұрын

I think he really needs a nap. He was very flabbergasted on the "is this graph online" question. Lol

@dominick253 3 ай бұрын

He looked like he wanted to say damn kids want everything to be online. I have this perfectly printed out piece of paper here. 😅😅😅

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

@dominick253 when society collapses you will be begging this lunatic for a sketch pad and a pencil...haha

@Occult-Classist 3 ай бұрын

@dominick253 i mean that kind of has been his point. Just because he acknowledges the advancement of tech, it doesn't mean he loves it or wants to constantly engage with it. Quite the opposite, really.

@robertd9850 3 ай бұрын

It's in the book.

@doobiescoobie 3 ай бұрын

He was like, damn, who is going to buy my books if you kids want everything online.

@robertd9850 3 ай бұрын

Aptera is already developing a solar charging car. Solar panels on the roof, hood, dash, and back add up to 40 miles per day depending on where you live, time of year, weather, etc.

@nexgen1701 3 ай бұрын

Great questions Joe, A.I. Pushing Ideology is one of the scary ones.

@WillyJunior 3 ай бұрын

If this dude doesn't drink coffee he needs to start

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

He's old and he has spent the last 20 years sewing those suspenders....so hes not in the best shape...haha

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

@@ghost9-9ghost worse, if he is still on it, he was on a "less than 10% dietary fat" diet he allegedly came up with. That is about a third of what the few scientific papers to address neuroprotective intake uses.

@ghost9-9ghost 3 ай бұрын

@IAmTheRealBill I very much agree....low fat diets are a terrible idea....despite that both keto and carnivore diets are based on pseudo science and the lies of zealots, one of the few things they have as benefit are fat content.....and putting niche studies aside, fat is simply required....structurally and functionally .. for human biology Yeah it's sad...I don't know much about kurzweil....but.....whatever he may have been in the past is gone...

@FATMAN_tactical 3 ай бұрын

Man bear pig will raise the oceans by 2012

@kchannel5317 16 күн бұрын

kzfaq.info/get/bejne/i5ungJihytnLl3k.htmlsi=8RteLm8yhnqw8Gg-

@kchannel5317 16 күн бұрын

I think that’s the clip you’re looking for😊

@jamescrawford9707 3 ай бұрын

I know Robert Deniro in disguise when I see it!

@TheNaturalust 3 ай бұрын

The efficiency of solar panels hits some pretty hard limits based on the materials used to make semiconductors.

@ryantogo8359 3 ай бұрын

Nope you're totally wrong. Because muh exponential growth

@TheNaturalust 3 ай бұрын

@@ryantogo8359 As an electrical engineer who has worked in and done research in that field, I must say you are wrong. But it’s pretty deeply technical and outside the understanding of 95% of people. Efficiencies started at about 6% when I started in this field and we’ve come a long way however.

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

@@TheNaturalust It's a joke because the guy in the podcast is just saying exponential growth

@user-sv4rp3yd4x 3 ай бұрын

Joe wantes to call BULL SH#T but he's too nice

@kathleenp3135 3 ай бұрын

He’s so nice.

@geoalpha 3 ай бұрын

He matches the energy of who he talks to, generally. Kurzweil is so soft spoken nowadays Joe just wants to get him talking at all.

@Gnaritas42 3 ай бұрын

Yup, he believes Elon over Ray, as he should. Ray is talking out of his ass right now.

@bhavjotsingh3190 3 ай бұрын

Like he knows shit about technology lmao

@1labrinth 3 ай бұрын

When the technologist has paper documents be skeptical

@arsemyth8920 3 ай бұрын

What a surreal conversation

@Dark_Embracer 5 күн бұрын

I've been following Ray Kurzweil for decades. Ray Kurzweil is a futurist so many of his future predictions have come to fruition. AI, AGI, ASI and Solar Powered Cars is nearly there.

@masonm600 3 ай бұрын

I read his book "The Singularity Is Near" in 2004. He has stayed remarkably consistent in his big predictions. Which conveniently are still years out. But he doesn't always see the gap between "there is tech for this" and "there is demand for this." And yes, he applies exponential growth to everything, even places it doesn't apply. Case in point: he says life expectancy is on an exponential growth curve. And average can look like that if you squint, but *maximum* lifespan has remained consistently ~120.

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

He is confirmation bias personified

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Indeed, he does *now* consistently say these things are "a decade' or "decades" out. Because despite what the comment section here believes, his actual accuracy is in the gutter.

@arryharry 3 ай бұрын

Just in time for the predicted 2030 reset... 😅

@jeltoninc.8542 3 ай бұрын

You see it for what it is. Nothing is “by accident” or “random”.

@joespeigle1240 3 ай бұрын

This conversation reminds me of a slow motion version of the 7 Minute Abs scene from There's Something About Mary

@samdavis456 3 ай бұрын

We need to create AI that has to sleep 8 hours a day to give us a chance 😅😴

@creativename6126 3 ай бұрын

Rays entire philosophy stems from a deep rooted fear of death. All of his estimations have always been for it to happen right before he reaches the life expectancy. The singularity has a major issue in that it does not account for diminishing returns, nor does it account for sentient AI just not willing to be enslaved.

@DantesHQ 3 ай бұрын

If you read his book he answers all of that. Diminishing returns do not exist with technology because technology innovations compound between each other. We use old technology to build better technology and we then use better technology to build even more amazing things. This is what leads to exponential growth.

@yaboiflint5926 3 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQah yes the exponential growth, I forgot to take that into account

@zsombornagy3935 3 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQThats most people's problem in the comments, they don't read his book or anything about him, they go off this podcast appearance and make assumptions.

@lewisburton1852 3 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQ Diminishing returns exist accross the board even tech just manufacturing chips is a huge problem.

@BaphomentIsAwsome666 3 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQThe plank length would like to talk to you

@ryansark1795 3 ай бұрын

New drinking game, every time he says" expidential growth"

@satorified1612 3 ай бұрын

I’d be puking my guts out…..

@alexanderson9442 3 ай бұрын

This guy talks like an AI trying to learn human but only studied the books 😂

@GovnaBuckingham 3 ай бұрын

nerds

@Danny-qh4su 3 ай бұрын

Yeah he's either lying or ignorant, and nuclear is the future. He's probably taking money from renewable companies or lobbies.

@Dollapfin 3 ай бұрын

@@Danny-qh4subiggest issue with this is that the guy has no idea why he’s talking about nor what Joe is trying to ask him.

@boylerbg 3 ай бұрын

Fuck me you are hilarious. Brilliant😅

@andrewferguson8032 3 ай бұрын

This guy is the Mike Baker of math

@ShadyNorris 3 ай бұрын

It will happen in (insert random number) years. Trust me.

@TheBlackClockOfTime 3 ай бұрын

Really listen to his point on LLMs regarding the timeline of progress. If you don't get it: listen to it as many times as it takes for you to get it. 9:40 (for about 30-60 sec from there before they go into hallucination).

@Atticus_Moore 3 ай бұрын

Rebuilding the grid will be the most vital step

@MilGrip76 3 ай бұрын

Distributed power ftw

@LoadPuller 3 ай бұрын

When was his last prediction correct?

@TomRopez 3 ай бұрын

Apparently he has 88% success rate but I’ve not seen the predictions themselves. I just don’t trust his appearance 😂

@anu1776 3 ай бұрын

@@TomRopezlmfao he does look a bit off hahahaha

@dertythegrower 3 ай бұрын

I have proven ones here.. he does not.

@tacitozetticci9308 3 ай бұрын

It's basically the same deal as Dr Ben Goertzel lol but yeah in the end they aren't nuts. (Ray is clearly getting old though, this clip sucks)

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

@@TomRopez The 86% figure thrown around about him is one he came up with. But it includes obviously failed predictions as accurate. For example he claimed that by 2009 most kids (presuming in the western countries, or even just in America) would learn to read at home before school using computers. Clearly that didn't happen. But in his self-analysis of his "own" predictions he called it accurate because a single paper claimed that 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Nothing in the paper attributed it to computers at home, and 9% is much closer to 0% than it is 51%. He basically makes vague assertions that experts in the field are already doing, then claims credit when something can remotely be interpreted as him predicting it. Another example he claims is that he predicted the fall of the USSR. but experts had done that years before.

@captainbumface3595 3 ай бұрын

Chating shit, AI still thinks the Vikings are black.

@michaeldeats328 3 ай бұрын

Whose to say they weren’t black be more open minded

@_Scarlet1 3 ай бұрын

@@michaeldeats328history. History says that Vikings weren’t black

@Pir-o 3 ай бұрын

That's the stupidity of people who put restrictions on it, not stupidity of the AI itself.

@michaeldeats328 3 ай бұрын

@@_Scarlet1 yea but they also said Jesus was white your claims are sus your stance feeble and your beliefs flawed, go to the yard with the other specials and play nice

@GovnaBuckingham 3 ай бұрын

woosh@@_Scarlet1

@JesusChristBlesses 3 ай бұрын

“Uhm, exponential, uhm, exponentially, uhhhhhhhhhmmmmm…”*powers down AI self*

@brittanym1626 3 ай бұрын

He’s not actually answering Joe Rogan’s questions. He’s just repeating himself over and over again in “10 years.”

@dilldowschwagginz2674 2 ай бұрын

He's a typical self absorbed lib from academia. They're ALL like that

@BOZ_11 3 ай бұрын

he's conflating the growth in computational power with "AI" (chatbot) programs. LLM's will plateau and we'll need a paradigm shift to make big strides; it is not linear, it's stop-go for "AI"

@theredknight9314 3 ай бұрын

@GovnaBuckingham 3 ай бұрын

cars are literally driving themselves cuh

@thechatgpttutor 3 ай бұрын

might be the case, but LLMs can be made better, faster etc all those nice things before we need something 'new'

@DantesHQ 3 ай бұрын

Nope you are just straight up wrong. As we scale deep learning more and more emergent properties seem to emerge out of the systems. Claude 3 for example just passed the needle in the haystack and display high levels of situational awareness. This all happened because we optimized and scaled. There could be a few things that we are missing, but so far it seems like we wont be needing those things.

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

@@DantesHQ No, they do plateau. You're talking about the training data / model which isn't really what they're talking about. Think about the the number of layers in a network. For example, Resnet-50 vs Resnet-101 vs ResNet-152. The improvement among adding the layers is not exponential to the number of extra layers, and it will plateau eventually (i.e., error % is typically not much different from Resnet-101 vs Resnet-152 compared to the difference between Resent-50 and Resent-101 which is larger). Computational power helps a lot, but that's not all it is. They need to design better architectures.

@seanthompson6159 3 ай бұрын

What the hell is a futurist?

@taylemgames2652 3 ай бұрын

Someone who uses intelligent speculation to predict the future.

@melloone611 3 ай бұрын

You need AI to answer that question lol ask Siri

@freddiecuffe4688 3 ай бұрын

@@melloone611lmao perfect answer

@TJL6969 3 ай бұрын

Another variation of a Globalist Elite billionaire freak

@Pir-o 3 ай бұрын

Someone who really likes the word "Exponentially"

@httr94 3 ай бұрын

How can you not take this man seriously? Just look at the wig and the suspenders. He's a serious person. My respect for him grew exponentially while watching this.

@LK-ui9rx 3 ай бұрын

"100% Renewable energy in 10 years" That's not even possible theoretically

@jwm2762 3 ай бұрын

lol you're not accounting for the exponential growth though

@KernalPanics 3 ай бұрын

Ya not gonna happen.

@KernalPanics 3 ай бұрын

And the use of energy is going up a lot year by year now due to crypto mining and A.I. training as the training of them uses a lot of energy and is only going up.

@andreavanda5402 3 ай бұрын

Until the grid collapses! Nikola Tesla he's NOT!

@gypsyemperor7535 3 ай бұрын

@@andreavanda5402 Nikola Tesla was a mad man who died in poverty, most of his ideas were pure insanity

@GrumpDog 3 ай бұрын

Do people not realize how serious this is? This should be the CENTRAL election issue! How workers are going to survive as AI takes most jobs businesses were once willing to pay humans for, needs to be prepared for ASAP! Our labor based economy will not continue to work! The average worker should not starve, just because AI will soon do most work.

@MichaelErnest666 3 ай бұрын

UBI

@terenceflanagan1225 3 ай бұрын

🤣. You're very presumptive that anytimg will be resembling order in 2 years

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Nice parody.

@Jagar_Tharn 3 ай бұрын

@@IAmTheRealBill Ignorance is bliss.

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

Labor based economy is failing without AI.

@static1dragon 3 ай бұрын

We still do not have light processing at the level we need for true AI. Not just novel machine learning tasks we call AI. Processing still needs to be much better. 2029 is still too early for that. I would be surprised if true light processing was halfway there by 2029.

@TheBlueB0mber 3 ай бұрын

Expectation: AI gets smarter Reality: Human gets *dumber*

@user-sf3dw2sm3b Ай бұрын

Some humans will merge with AI. They are already being raised by parents with a secret. The secret is some children have been genetically enhanced. They have been doing it for years.

@mikenapier3598 2 ай бұрын

I was waiting for that guy to pull out an overhead projector....

@MG77740 3 ай бұрын

I was worried that it was just geometric grow but so glad that it’s exponential.

@RustOnWindows 3 ай бұрын

To truly become human it has to be wrong and fail at times. Have to be able to purposefully oppose things to create awkward situations

@freddiecuffe4688 3 ай бұрын

True statement

@ryantogo8359 3 ай бұрын

Literally no one said anything about becoming human, Merlin

@kakamarioluigi 3 ай бұрын

We need to change the name to SI simulated intelligence, lets not be too hasty to put this stuff on a pedestal.

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

Or just use language model.

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

@@IAmTheRealBill Can't be language model because not all models are language-based (e.g., CNN).

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

How about: Curve optimization Why even say intelligence? That's where people go wrong.

@talopi 3 ай бұрын

"The power output of the sun is growing exponentially", I couldn't take this guy seriously after I heard that line

@bkb04g 3 ай бұрын

Solar panels have an upper bound for effeciency at around 45%, but thats not a bottleneck, you can simply produce panels. They have increased dramatically from what existed in the 90's however.

@conr2141 3 ай бұрын

He's right.. most AI experts have been readjusting their estimates of AGI to ever-earlier dates over the decades. Kurzweil has stuck to 2029 all this time. He's also gotten 80+ % of hist past predictions right.

@FailBucketFilms 3 ай бұрын

Please provide his predictions (successful or otherwise)

@IAmTheRealBill 3 ай бұрын

@@FailBucketFilms he won't. You see that 86% is Ray's own assessment, which includes obvious failures such as "most children will learn to read via computer before school by 2009" - which clearly is a strike out. He largely makes general assertions that are not novel, vague, and usually obvious to the experts. For example he claimed in the 90s that computers would eventually replace phones for communication - something that was predicted in the 60s. Ray basically follows the school of thought that says "make a shit-ton of predictions, people will forget the failures and marvel at the few successes" - which this comment section is demonstrating to be true.

@activision4170 2 ай бұрын

Name one AI expert that has actually contributed to the field that gave an AGI estimate you are referring to. Also, he can't be right even if he is right; he doesn't have enough understanding of the field to make reasonable claims. As shown in the interview.

@winstonsol8713 3 ай бұрын

In 2027 he’ll adjust this to 2035. And so on. In 1990 everyone thought we’d be on Mars and have flying cars before 2020.

@Maniacsface 3 ай бұрын

Only movie buffs thought that.

@willyword3413 3 ай бұрын

Not that tho it’s like Moore’s law it will prob be a bit sooner

@EolosMusic 3 ай бұрын

Actually he has said 2029 since like 50 years ago so you’re wrong lol

@EolosMusic 3 ай бұрын

@@willyword3413 These plebs don’t know what’s coming 😅

@masonm600 3 ай бұрын

He's had the same date since at least 2003. Singularity 2045! But ya he just waves away the idea we could plateau any time soon.

@erinfreize4717 3 ай бұрын

The slope of the line is decreasing these last thirty years, but the scale of the y axis is exponential.

@ModerateObserver 2 ай бұрын

Kurzweil's whole schtick is unjustified long-term extrapolation of exponential curves. Turn his exponentials into (more realistic) s-curves and the end scenario looks a lot different. We could well find that out soon when solar plateaus, when GPT 5 proves an incremental advance.

@FractalPrism. Ай бұрын

there is no s-curve, no 'schtick'. no matter the window of time viewed, technology advancement has always been exponential disliking how this is constantly proven correct does not make it less so

@txterbug 3 ай бұрын

2029 kind of an odd exact number

@mrbentiify 3 ай бұрын

Joe: So what's the solution then to all the world's problems? Ray: Exponential growth

@rb8049 3 ай бұрын

My car charges fully with the excess solar energy I don’t use for my house. And my solar system is small. The technology is a lot better than people realize.

@omememe 3 ай бұрын

absolutely agree that with the advent of A.I., quantum computing and the rest of technology we might have all of these options available, but weather they will be implemented is entirely different question to answer.

@Iamrightyouarewrong 3 ай бұрын

Well he's wrong.

@angryoperatorakacrazybob8998 3 ай бұрын

Ya I agree. .I think..lol

@breadgarlichouse2265 3 ай бұрын

why is he wrong? How do you know that you are not wrong?

@nonnobis2232 3 ай бұрын

In my expert opinion I concur!

@rockerdude86 3 ай бұрын

Sounds like you have not been keeping up

@_hootjohnson 3 ай бұрын

Maybe he means AI is getting dumber every year. If that’s the case, he would be right.

@alienatedbeing7513 3 ай бұрын

What this guy doesn’t realise is that there’s a limit to this tech, and the closer you get to the limit the slower the advancement is. His lack of understanding in solar panels shows this

@Jagar_Tharn 3 ай бұрын

"Ray Kurzweil doesn't understand S-curves." -Some clown