How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling - with Adam Kucharski

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The Royal Institution

The Royal Institution

7 жыл бұрын

From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies.
Watch the Q&A here: • Q&A - How Science is T...
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Adam's book "The Perfect Bet" is available now - geni.us/9Ao9j
Spanning mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains how gambling shaped everything from probability to game theory, and chaos theory to artificial intelligence.
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections. Prior to this, he got a degree in mathematics from the University of Warwick, received a PhD in applied mathematics from the University of Cambridge and had a post-doc position at Imperial College London.
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Пікірлер: 2 000
@tyharris9994
@tyharris9994 4 жыл бұрын
I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
@zeezone8121
@zeezone8121 4 жыл бұрын
Exceedingly remarkable indeed
@boogiewoogie450
@boogiewoogie450 4 жыл бұрын
But on the BAD side, there are alot of people and governments that are hell bent to distort knowledge , to distort information , to gain & stay on power
@saltservice4024
@saltservice4024 4 жыл бұрын
I swear these days we can't go 5 replies to a comment on KZfaq without somebody finding something negative to say about something positive.
@markchoi5777
@markchoi5777 4 жыл бұрын
Oh really? Care to answer some simple questions on quantum mechanics or game theory? Just because you watch KZfaq videos does not make you an expert, or even particularly knowledgeable. This comment and all the replies to it, are Dunning Kruger at its finest.
@Account.for.Comment
@Account.for.Comment 4 жыл бұрын
@@markchoi5777 the key words are "mentally enriched" and "care to be". If you want to be expert, in theory, you can be one by watching a lot of videos and read a tons of books. Most experts do the same thing but they either have an accredition or job in the field. Or you can just a little more knowledgable of a topic you previously know or care about with the wonder of the present.
@MountainProspector
@MountainProspector 5 жыл бұрын
I remember as a kid, RC Cola had some promotion where the liner inside the cap had the chance to win from a 1 free bottle up to a case of cola. One of my friends figured out that the steel caps of winning bottles were printed in slightly lighter colours than the rest. We had so much RC cola during that promotion! The best part was when we went to collect the free cola we would always choose another winner so never had to buy another bottle, lol. Happy memories as a kid.
@Ree1981
@Ree1981 4 жыл бұрын
Sounds like something I did. I was playing a tennis game on Xbox 360 with a friend, and figured out how to tell if my friend was going left or right, or aiming left or right, before the shot had fired. A huge advantage. It was from the sound of the thumb stick hitting the left or right side of the plastic. It was just sliiiiiiightly different.
@wiggstock
@wiggstock 4 жыл бұрын
MountainProspector, did you grow up in Texas? My brother dated one of the daughters to the RC Cola family, Ann Comegys. Back in the early 80s which is the timeframe I’m referring to I recall their family owning huge amounts of land north of Dallas. Nowadays, I live north of Dallas in McKinney and there is a Comegys creek and a few roads or streets named in reference to that family. Like you, I used to drink a lotta RC Cola for free. We just got it free for different reasons. 😉
@Mohatheking19
@Mohatheking19 4 жыл бұрын
we did something similar when i was young ... the shop owner kicked us out because he thought we were scamming/stealing him ...
@happydays8171
@happydays8171 4 жыл бұрын
Hated RC cola, just had a weird taste. Growing up, My best friends mother bought it by the pallet, literally. I'd rather drink water.
@garyvarjian3420
@garyvarjian3420 4 жыл бұрын
My dad used a flashlight on a scratch off baseball card game to know how to make matches
@slick4401
@slick4401 5 жыл бұрын
I learned a lot of Excel by doing gambling calculations. I never won a dime, but my ample spreadsheet skills got me a very good job.
@NewPhone-vj4sc
@NewPhone-vj4sc 4 жыл бұрын
@Munrais That is impressive. I wonder if you wouldn't mind elaborating on your job, and on one or two specific skills in Excel that have proven valuable to your employer, in case there is someone out there looking to emulate your approach.
@CharlesKamani
@CharlesKamani 4 жыл бұрын
me too
@cadavernl
@cadavernl 4 жыл бұрын
@@GeldorfMcleod Hence you should try it out in a brick casino. And get banned there.
@Nyarlathotep_Flagg
@Nyarlathotep_Flagg 4 жыл бұрын
@@NewPhone-vj4sc If you're good at something, never do it for free.
@Andrey43915
@Andrey43915 4 жыл бұрын
@@GeldorfMcleod Log the numbers from one account and play on a different account. Use pythons image recognition libraries (Open CV) to automate the logging process. And the library (numpy) to make statistical calculations. If you can log the numbers for a long period of time, then you will be able to see patterns if there is any . Good luck
@ckom0007
@ckom0007 5 жыл бұрын
Excellent talk! An example of someone who knows a topic so well his explanation is incredibly easy to understand. A rare talent!
@backlashtoignorance7371
@backlashtoignorance7371 2 жыл бұрын
okay been given out this formula to low-income people unfortunately higher income people gotten it because Kevin in nc "states North Carolina comp office" was given this information ( just how to win ) to give it to the lottery ..been told by an insider he never provided the info to lottery officials he uses it for himself ( he may have quit because he has the formula) .. today the pic 4 front end should be 88 or 84...when I went to play today it say "play out exceeds payout!!!!! that how many people are playing the formula and know it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so yeah I hope low-income people are winning, that was my objective no matter what color...just be low income. The only way this number will not play is if the lottery people have gotten smart, to date so far they have no, so it should play today..​
@albertsallent
@albertsallent 2 жыл бұрын
True!
@kamnovak5268
@kamnovak5268 3 жыл бұрын
Great vid. Nice to see a lecturer who knows his subject and rarely if ever has to look at his notes.
@caddymix024
@caddymix024 5 жыл бұрын
absolutely incredible talk, so fluid and so many great examples...makes me wanna go and research them all! ty
@tsiftsaro
@tsiftsaro 2 жыл бұрын
Not fluid at all, give this man some water. His mouth and tongue sounded so dry and it bothered me the whole time.
@jtjj1234
@jtjj1234 5 жыл бұрын
One of the best videos I’ve watched in a long time- brilliantly presented!
@Roedygr
@Roedygr 5 жыл бұрын
This was a delight. He trips from math to history, to physics like a Mozart sonata.
@Garbaz
@Garbaz 7 жыл бұрын
Great talk! A good balance of simplicity and mathematics with some great examples; Presented brilliantly!
@bcmasur
@bcmasur 6 жыл бұрын
@Garbaz it's Happy! ;) I agree, I'm glad to see this bloke talking about all kinds of stuff I've been spouting for decades. I'm trying to do some computer analysis of blackjack in C++ but I'm a very amateur programmer... having difficulties.
@persona3448
@persona3448 6 жыл бұрын
@bcmasur do you watch fairytail too?
@place6762
@place6762 6 жыл бұрын
Loser
@richardgalbraith2019
@richardgalbraith2019 6 жыл бұрын
Garbaz I
@cordlefhrichter1520
@cordlefhrichter1520 6 жыл бұрын
Presently brillianted!
@jasonb111222
@jasonb111222 3 жыл бұрын
" Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
@jimhood1202
@jimhood1202 2 жыл бұрын
I'm guessing like me you would welcome a similar talk on his main area of expertise. Especially now that we are over a year into the pandemic and have a lot of data to examine.
@AutPen38
@AutPen38 2 жыл бұрын
A lecture on the Covid pandemic would be great (albeit quickly out of date if he focused on the "latest news"), but in case you're unaware, Adam has an excellent twitter account full of explanations about Covid data.
@RobertLeighJames92
@RobertLeighJames92 2 ай бұрын
Omg what are you his PR manager ? And it's not very relevant at all tbh.. This is why he is talking about gambling not infectious disease.
@uriahmrache8336
@uriahmrache8336 5 жыл бұрын
Saw this randomly in my feed (chuckle) and thought it looked interesting but had no intention of sitting here for an hour. I ended up being pasted to my screen for the entire thing completely entertained and happy for the education.
@eddyla2308
@eddyla2308 4 жыл бұрын
me too.... plus.... repeat, repeat......
@kriskong9962
@kriskong9962 4 жыл бұрын
wait this took an hour ???
@EtienneCharlier-Biz
@EtienneCharlier-Biz 5 жыл бұрын
22:15 Kelly formula 40:02 Build the childs' mind and regret's minimization of vs expectation maximization
@zagreb2012
@zagreb2012 5 жыл бұрын
Tnx
@emmanuelalghali1828
@emmanuelalghali1828 2 жыл бұрын
Can u elaborate please I don’t understand
@L4zEGaming
@L4zEGaming 6 жыл бұрын
Such a brilliant talk, covered so many topics in a simple way.
@slypperyfox
@slypperyfox 2 жыл бұрын
I have an uncle who is/was a science prodigy. His intellect was off the scale. He has a PhD in Physics and a masters in mathematics. He developed a software which grocery stores scanned all their shelves with it and it revealed that which position on the shelf a product sold more from. Brand didn't matter - where the product was placed on display determined the sales. Product producers were lining up with offers of more and more money to buy their product's position on display. His company was eventually purchased by a company who then owned the product. He used his brainpower to beat the roulette tables in Atlantic City. He watched the spinners. Based on height, weight,handedness, etc he worked out a winning position where he knew within 95% certainty which 4-5 numbers would be the winning numbers. When new spinners were brought in, he would step back and study their spins until he figured out the new patterns. He won $60K with this before he was asked to leave. They never figured out how he had done it but I suspect the practice continues today.
@tylerspiegel3294
@tylerspiegel3294 3 ай бұрын
Good story.
@mawkuri5496
@mawkuri5496 10 күн бұрын
netflix worth film
@markhooker8520
@markhooker8520 2 жыл бұрын
Wonderful talk.Thank you for giving it, and for posting the video.
@kenlovan3931
@kenlovan3931 2 жыл бұрын
What a wonderful, enlightening lecture! Dwelling on the content, I believe it helped me understand many facets concerning life! Thanks.
@Inderjeet_Singh..
@Inderjeet_Singh.. Жыл бұрын
Hlo i don't know English please tell me shortly what s mean this lacture it's talk about law of attraction 🙏🙏🙏🙏
@bsmith6530
@bsmith6530 5 жыл бұрын
What an outstanding presentation!
@EdMcF1
@EdMcF1 5 жыл бұрын
Great talk, makes me pleased to support the RI.
@ladronsiman1471
@ladronsiman1471 2 жыл бұрын
I ..i heard a couple of lines ..and got hooked by this guy quickly ..i had to watch it all ...thanks
@harrish6
@harrish6 3 жыл бұрын
Excellent, well presented and entertainingly informative
@Vothtrucks
@Vothtrucks 3 жыл бұрын
One of the most engaging videos I have watched for quite some time. It is still amazing to me to have the knowledge of the world available at your fingertips. Although the subject matter has little to do with my particular area of expertise , I absorbed as much as my brain could handle . Excellent talk Mr. Kucharski !
@JanJaapBats
@JanJaapBats 2 жыл бұрын
Its said that literally every topic on earth is now covered in a (or more) youtube video's. Find the right ones and one can skip university :)
@Elbuarto
@Elbuarto 5 жыл бұрын
I don't know why this was recommended to me but I watched it all. Thanks youtube.
@jimhudson4744
@jimhudson4744 3 ай бұрын
This is one of the better presentations of this subject in relation to the events of chance/randomization and our ability to predict the preferred outcome. Well done sir.
@michaelsmullen9891
@michaelsmullen9891 2 жыл бұрын
I enjoyed that. Keep it random man!
@IceKoldKube
@IceKoldKube 6 жыл бұрын
Great presentation ... presenter .. good stuff!
@dlanska
@dlanska 2 жыл бұрын
An excellent talk on this subject. Very clear and entertaining, and expertly presented.
@exp0i0pi0
@exp0i0pi0 2 жыл бұрын
Brilliant talk and very interesting points. Thank you
@jrolland194
@jrolland194 2 жыл бұрын
Simply a fascinating video; thank you
@petergambier
@petergambier 4 жыл бұрын
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
@laureven
@laureven 2 жыл бұрын
I watched it 10x already, and every single time I focus on something else …great seminar .. Thank You :)
@coleyblossoms1051
@coleyblossoms1051 2 жыл бұрын
An hour spent spellbound to my seat. Thank you Mr Kucharski!
@stessert2208
@stessert2208 5 жыл бұрын
Thank you for a eloquent talk and introducing me to new concepts, subscribed :)
@officacialtraileraccess3138
@officacialtraileraccess3138 4 жыл бұрын
J Biiiii Vu Biiiii b bio Biiiii b Vu BbBiiiii k iiiii Vu Biiiii Biiiii Biiiii ni Biiiii 6b bio Biiiii bio ni Biiiii
@BobbyIronsights
@BobbyIronsights 6 жыл бұрын
This video was better than I expected.
@jayaybe1
@jayaybe1 5 жыл бұрын
How good did you expect it to be?
@kraljevo8
@kraljevo8 5 жыл бұрын
@@jayaybe1 Less so than it was.
@mattrhodes3498
@mattrhodes3498 5 жыл бұрын
Your expectations are my priority
@mokujin29
@mokujin29 5 жыл бұрын
Yeah , if you ignore that thick accent.
@darlenebennett4891
@darlenebennett4891 3 жыл бұрын
"Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
@alialsabe
@alialsabe 5 жыл бұрын
This might be the best lecture I've ever seen in my life. And trust me, my sample size is pretty large!
@rhythmandblues_alibi
@rhythmandblues_alibi 2 ай бұрын
Excellent lecture. Would love to hear more from this speaker!
@carlcopymybet298
@carlcopymybet298 4 жыл бұрын
This was brilliant. A special mentioned to the speaker for the way is was delivered
@nsmbfan
@nsmbfan 5 жыл бұрын
Thank you, this helped me with my work.
@Absfor30
@Absfor30 2 жыл бұрын
An excellent lecture and the fact that it is freely available is a reminder that we all have the opportunity to improve ourselves and learn something new and it doesn't have to cost a thing (internet access permitting of course).
@shil6819
@shil6819 2 жыл бұрын
I've seen a lot of Ri lectures and boy was this speaker 🔥
@allthingstoallmen8912
@allthingstoallmen8912 4 жыл бұрын
When he said his jobs description, he had my full attention.
@Corinthian44
@Corinthian44 2 жыл бұрын
A brilliant lecture Adam , well done !
@IamFubario
@IamFubario 2 жыл бұрын
Awesome. Can’t believe I watched the whole thing.
@henrik2766
@henrik2766 2 жыл бұрын
Educational and entertaining. A great watch:)
@Scott.Mariani
@Scott.Mariani 4 жыл бұрын
Excellent presentation thank you.
@YoutuberAdmin
@YoutuberAdmin 3 жыл бұрын
Excellent video! You should do a video on Arbitrages, since they are basically only winning strategy, like those Betnetto surebets.
@aaronwolstenholme8640
@aaronwolstenholme8640 3 жыл бұрын
Theres plenty more ways of guaranteing wins
@christopherdesimone206
@christopherdesimone206 2 жыл бұрын
@@aaronwolstenholme8640 yep. one way that can work 87% is a rabbit foot. Be sure it's the front right foot which is the real lucky foot.
@christopherdesimone206
@christopherdesimone206 2 жыл бұрын
JUST KIDDING forgot to type LOL, sorry.
@aaronwolstenholme8640
@aaronwolstenholme8640 2 жыл бұрын
@@christopherdesimone206 so your saying 100% percent that this is the only way?
@ramalingeswararaobhavaraju5813
@ramalingeswararaobhavaraju5813 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you sir. Thank you Adam Kucharski sir.
@jarekcimrman8382
@jarekcimrman8382 5 жыл бұрын
Thx 4 upload
@DoubleGlog
@DoubleGlog 4 жыл бұрын
What a remarkable presentation by an amazing presenter. Adam is suited to explaining and giving great analogies for complex topics such as these. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
@alanbunyan5007
@alanbunyan5007 2 жыл бұрын
A most thought-provoking talk! Regarding the situation in which Deep Blue foxed Kasparov with a seemingly brilliant, but in reality completely random, move, it struck me that the same strategy probably wouldn't work the other way around. Had Kasparov done the same thing, Deep Blue would simply have calmly and unemotially taken the best possible advantage of it, as it would of any other move. Our inability to use bluff/gamesmanship against machines therefore surely means that chess, poker, or almost any game played against a computer is forever going to be missing a major dimension of enjoyment. This might almost amount to an argument for turning our attention, to some extent, away from the further development of AI to that of AS (articificial stupidity)! :-)
@mattc3581
@mattc3581 2 жыл бұрын
There was a lot more schenanigans going on than just a single weird move. I think in reality the match was really just a PR exercise for IBM, they organised it, they promoted it, they agreed a format, they broke all the rules, then they declared themsleves the winner and their PR team let the world know. If this had in any way been a sanctioned formal match I think the deep blue team would have been disqualified for failing to meet many agreed upon anti-cheating safeguards, but it wasn't any they probably paid Kasparov extra to not make a fuss. He seemed pretty unhappy about it, but likely earned enough to live with the humiliation of being labelled the first world champion to lose to a computer.
@Proteus6684
@Proteus6684 2 ай бұрын
Great talk mate, well done
@jamesharris8128
@jamesharris8128 2 жыл бұрын
A most wonderful presentation.
@abwilliausa1
@abwilliausa1 2 жыл бұрын
This human explains the mathematics very clearly. I have been using these methods for years.
@1RobW
@1RobW 5 жыл бұрын
Didnt notice how long it was, (expecting maybe 25mins) checked time after 40 mins. Very well presented and engaging. Time flew by.
@Banzybanz
@Banzybanz 2 жыл бұрын
YNWA
@bridgelion4968
@bridgelion4968 2 жыл бұрын
Most amazing seminar I ever seen
@tylero8595
@tylero8595 2 жыл бұрын
This was a superb talk.
@irelandirish8718
@irelandirish8718 3 жыл бұрын
I played 50cent on 4 numbers on the Irish Lottery, in the bookies a couple of weeks ago. It was my first time ever to do so, and i watched the draw live on tv that night and all 4 of my numbers came out, i won €1900.50. I couldn't actually believe it, i went back down the very next day and collected it, & i walked straight out of the shop clearly extremely happy. I know of plenty of people who would have collected that money & stayed in the shop and blew the lot. That to me is madness.
@sullysamra6222
@sullysamra6222 2 жыл бұрын
ج
@xombie0078
@xombie0078 2 жыл бұрын
Cool story, bro. lol
@brandonc2829
@brandonc2829 2 жыл бұрын
that person to waste it all is me won 1800 usd the other day lost it all 😎
@milenkojovic419
@milenkojovic419 3 жыл бұрын
Can your knowledge work on covid-19 treatmwnts and predictions of cases, "red areas", etc...
@rightangletriangle3188
@rightangletriangle3188 2 жыл бұрын
I like the concept of regret minimization for investing, also looking backward to improve trading or investing skills.
@TroyWilkinson978
@TroyWilkinson978 2 жыл бұрын
Brilliant presentation.
@fturla
@fturla 5 жыл бұрын
Great point in gambling where your betting amount in proportion to your bank is extremely important and determines if you win or lose long term. You can have the perfect betting system but if your betting amount if over the optimum limit then you will lose not only the bets but all your bank eventually which is why the casinos always want you to bet beyond what is reasonable all the time.
@WSMDSA
@WSMDSA 2 жыл бұрын
Wrong.
@ivanmamuyac
@ivanmamuyac 4 жыл бұрын
So...you're telling me there's a chance...YEAH!
@djs5220
@djs5220 Жыл бұрын
Excellent! And thank you.
@gormatthew
@gormatthew 2 жыл бұрын
interesting topic fantastically delivered
@ErikMalkavian
@ErikMalkavian 6 жыл бұрын
I figured this out about the Lottto back in the 1980's but couldn't profit on it.
@JacobsBadminton
@JacobsBadminton 3 жыл бұрын
Just found this but what a great lecture from a professional. Breaks down gambling in a great way making it easy to understand and digest. Thoroughly enjoy the depth and thinking in the lecture.
@ballhawk387
@ballhawk387 2 жыл бұрын
There are definitely sports gambling hacks one can do, but most require a fair amount of money, such as playing on the side of the house against emotional tendencies of casual bettors. Also taking advantage of late news that can affect an outcome.
@ckkhong6330
@ckkhong6330 3 жыл бұрын
Well,philosophers have long said that success is hard work plus luck.iam back to the drawing board for my next winning bet.thank you for this lecture.
@DannyPhantumm
@DannyPhantumm 4 жыл бұрын
If you enjoyed this talk, you should try the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths).
@JamesBermingham
@JamesBermingham 3 жыл бұрын
Just bought this book on Audible on your recommendation 😊
@DannyPhantumm
@DannyPhantumm 3 жыл бұрын
@@JamesBermingham Audio book was my choice, too! Hope you enjoy it, man
@JamesBermingham
@JamesBermingham 3 жыл бұрын
@@DannyPhantumm cheers Droh 👍
@mattschwab5143
@mattschwab5143 2 жыл бұрын
Very well done! Wish there was more.
@tullamorewolf2219
@tullamorewolf2219 2 жыл бұрын
That closing line, Beautiful!
@weneedthetruth5814
@weneedthetruth5814 5 жыл бұрын
I'll say the title of this video has 5 to 2 odds of drawing in most gamblers to watch it !!! LOL
@poiuyt975
@poiuyt975 5 жыл бұрын
Wanna bet on that? ;)
@MarvinEscotoofficial
@MarvinEscotoofficial 3 жыл бұрын
Just a few people will get this... lol
@mtnairpilot
@mtnairpilot 5 жыл бұрын
Speaking of the luck and skill boxes, we teach young aviators that they begin with a full bag of luck and an empty bag of skill and their goal is to fill the skill bag before their luck bag runs out.
@joeymurdazalotmore6355
@joeymurdazalotmore6355 3 жыл бұрын
On a macro level were doing that on this rock
@kevinbissinger
@kevinbissinger 2 жыл бұрын
that's a fun way to cover beginner's luck
@zhuzzir
@zhuzzir 2 жыл бұрын
Oh wow... Realities "knocked" me hard by this... Thanks for this advise, truly... ❤️
@funstudiozlt6020
@funstudiozlt6020 4 жыл бұрын
I really don't know why some people have disliked this video, the video is very great. Good work.
@endasil
@endasil 4 жыл бұрын
I disliked it because it had an ad in the middle. I dislike all videos that interrupt for ads in the middle and stop watching.
@MattDavis_BeechingsGhosts
@MattDavis_BeechingsGhosts 3 жыл бұрын
4:04 yes but you'd also win all the other tickets such as 5+bonus, 5, 4 and 3 ball combinations so it's not just about winning the top prize but winning ALL the prizes.
@sbalogh53
@sbalogh53 5 жыл бұрын
43:06 interesting that rock-paper-scissors requires a huge increase in noise level.
@CorwinAlexander
@CorwinAlexander 3 жыл бұрын
Rock paper scissors shoot, multiplied a hundred times out of sync
@wereallmadhere9712
@wereallmadhere9712 6 жыл бұрын
Reminds me of Isildur1 wild card strategy!
@robertharaldsson2881
@robertharaldsson2881 5 жыл бұрын
Oh God PLZ O.O
@sierrajuliet7759
@sierrajuliet7759 5 жыл бұрын
You are worthless
@PhilosopherSci
@PhilosopherSci 5 жыл бұрын
Is that a Tom Waits reference We're All Mad Here
@johnw2758
@johnw2758 Жыл бұрын
I can remember golf being exploited quite a few years ago. The bet was hole-in-ones, you'd think it was a rare event and someone realised it wasn't and that it happened at every major tournament . The odds went down drastically after. An interesting one is that you can't bet on something like a streaker invading a match because you could put huge money on and actually make it happen. An interesting book is one called Betting for Fun and Profit, it gives a good insight into betting strategies etc.
@CM-Leviathan
@CM-Leviathan 5 жыл бұрын
Good speaker! Well performed
@nudesoftheworld
@nudesoftheworld 3 жыл бұрын
43:15 "Well done. I wont fall for that again!!!!!"
@elastronaute1198
@elastronaute1198 6 жыл бұрын
Professional gamblers don't think along the lines of 'which horse is going to win' - they think in terms of probabilities and chance. You cannot know what is going to happen, only relative probabilities.
@timothyburrier6684
@timothyburrier6684 2 жыл бұрын
Most interesting entertaining and intelligent thing on the internet. thank you
@willgarrison5075
@willgarrison5075 2 жыл бұрын
Fell asleep watching roulette strategy videos woke up to this. Really enjoyed this video
@gustavefrankfurter6462
@gustavefrankfurter6462 5 жыл бұрын
That was the best remedy for my insomnia. It bored me to sleep. Thanks!
@peterpreen6031
@peterpreen6031 2 жыл бұрын
what a presenter !! how much knowledge does he have ! I'd need 10 packets of Panadol a day !! credit to you young fella well done and hope you are successful in anything you pursue
@SurfinScientist
@SurfinScientist 5 жыл бұрын
Great talk!
@PeterAdiSaputro
@PeterAdiSaputro 2 жыл бұрын
Very interesting video. I think I need to watch it again to really understand what is explained in this video and I hope I can apply it in the real world.
@rentslave
@rentslave 7 жыл бұрын
Deep Blue turned green when it saw how good I was.
@garethb1961
@garethb1961 5 жыл бұрын
I love the winning lottery anecdote. I had a similar situation with card counting at the casino in the 90's. i had a way of beating the system - without being detected (not true of traditional card counting systems). Everyone was skeptical (and remain so to this day) because, as they told me, if I could, I would be down at the casino making money, not talking about it. But I had already calculated that skinning the casino would be harder work than my paid job, less interesting, and inherently risky - as a winning strategy doesn't always amount to wining. I would have been gambling dangerously high ante levels to convert my 0.4% advantage per bet into an income.
@LPCLASSICAL
@LPCLASSICAL 2 жыл бұрын
as a winning strategy then it did not give you a big enough edge if your day job pays more
@danielyuan9862
@danielyuan9862 2 жыл бұрын
I liked how he talked about John von Neumann's analysis of poker, because I analyzed basically the exact same problem myself and got similar results: bet when you're big or small, but don't bet if you're somewhere in the middle. To be more specific, you should bet at the top 3/7 of cards, and bluff at the bottom 1/7 of cards, so more often than not you're being truthful on your bet. But this only applies with the specific rules where your opponent can't raise you.
@danielyuan9862
@danielyuan9862 2 жыл бұрын
Timestamp around 36:00 btw
@johnlamarca9439
@johnlamarca9439 5 жыл бұрын
Where have you been?! I watched video after video of mathematical ideas for winning the lottery and wasted my time with "What the hell are you talking about?" videos that really made no sense and were very long. You are ACTUALLY making sense here!!
@ClemensAlive
@ClemensAlive 5 жыл бұрын
I instantly started my poker software and started to bluff bad hands, no matter what. Worked WAY better than I expected xD So I did NOT play lose or tight. I ignored the middle cards and just played good or bad cards. Of course with some adjustments... (so I just raised preflop with bad cards, when noone did before, for example) Doubled my buy in in just 10 minutes. When I regognized, people saw what I was doing, I left. Made some money. Going to try to replecate that tomorrow
@alexthedeal1827
@alexthedeal1827 5 жыл бұрын
he won with some bullshit system which is basically bluffing, said he would try it again tomorrow. now it's a month further.......
@yawgmoth5662
@yawgmoth5662 5 жыл бұрын
I know. It's surprising how people always think they've found some secret method to success. As far as poker goes, we've known how to play optimally for years with range building. You calculate your own odds based on the possible cards you think your opponent could have based on how they play. Tight players will bluff less and usually have better cards when they bet, loose players will bluff more and bet with weaker hands, if you have KhAh they are less likely to have hearts and broadway combos, etc. There is some basic strategy for playing the early rounds of a large tournament but beyond that... I will say that bluffing a lot is going to be good against weaker and tight players, and since the op was playing online he likely just ran into a table with a bunch of noobs/weak players.
@ClemensAlive
@ClemensAlive 5 жыл бұрын
@@yawgmoth5662 it was meant like a joke...^^ of course it just works sometimes
@nashos
@nashos 3 жыл бұрын
Just because it worked once. Doesn't mean it will work longterm
@RealLifeFinance
@RealLifeFinance 3 жыл бұрын
Good point. Play a certain way that throws everyone off until they catch on then leave
@jn___livecast6449
@jn___livecast6449 5 жыл бұрын
that's a cool desk
@jaystock9202
@jaystock9202 4 жыл бұрын
I used to track Aces in BJ. That spot about memorizing cards is spot on
@johnw2758
@johnw2758 Жыл бұрын
I can remember years ago with the arcade horses (sometimes it was cars) that ran on a track wether eventually, if you wrote down every race result, you would hit a system where the loop begins and you would know the result of every race.
@korkey999
@korkey999 6 жыл бұрын
The house eventually wins in Blackjack purely because you get the chance to go bust first. They may go bust on the same hand but you are already out of the game and they have taken your bet. Thus they effectively win when it's a draw. Worked that out meself, cool.
@damisnsilletti2762
@damisnsilletti2762 6 жыл бұрын
korkey999 there's a system out there where you always stand on 12 n over. Takes that out of equation n u win more guranteed
@korkey999
@korkey999 6 жыл бұрын
Damisn Silletti not according to the maths. If you can count the number of 10s dealt you can increase the odds but my memory is rubbish.
@damisnsilletti2762
@damisnsilletti2762 6 жыл бұрын
korkey999 if he has a ten you probably lost anyway so stand on all 12 or above the basic strategy is bullshit it turns out watch video i tried it on an app not real life works great try it
@juliancourtland-smith8917
@juliancourtland-smith8917 6 жыл бұрын
Th house does not necessarily. If you use a Blackjack Strategy Chart and sensible wagering strategy you can be on top. Blackjack is the best form of casino gambling, i.e. highest returns to punter. I played Blackjack online years ago and made a return of £400 per month before I moved onto sports trading.
@verdelllewis3563
@verdelllewis3563 6 жыл бұрын
korkey999. not true u need 2 be trainned by a card counter want 2 try that ? kevin lewis 119 w mitchell st. mil; wi 53204 text me at 1414 204-3426
@rjdodgerz2776
@rjdodgerz2776 2 жыл бұрын
Don't ever play in a blackjack table that has a CSM (card shuffler machine). Walk out or just hand them your money and save yourself time.
@michaelcosgrove1273
@michaelcosgrove1273 2 жыл бұрын
Wonderful presentation. Very surprised that there is no reference to Claude Shannon and Ed Thorp.
@eringobreathtiocfaidharla1446
@eringobreathtiocfaidharla1446 3 жыл бұрын
Excellent speaker ,👏 👏
@gratemusic3008
@gratemusic3008 4 жыл бұрын
My take away is that when you beat the system, they call you up for a "chat"
@82spiders
@82spiders 4 жыл бұрын
yes!
@justforfun5391
@justforfun5391 3 жыл бұрын
only if you get too greedy....
@captianmorgan7627
@captianmorgan7627 4 жыл бұрын
Luck? Gambling? Those are two words that don't go together. Odds are set by the house.
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