Intel Stock Is Back To Value, Again...

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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

Intel stock jumped on the AI boom but reality hit and now we are back close to value. But, the reality is just the semis cycle and the company is investing big into the future, as the cycle rebounds, it could be an interesting play.
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Пікірлер: 158

@SB-yq8uo Ай бұрын

Good analysis Sven. I wasnt smart enough to get out at USD 50. Furthermore the dividend is a lot lower. Overall a very poor investment. I agree that 25 is a good number :-)

@user-ov8sv9ns5l Ай бұрын

Super oversold.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@sanc9808 Ай бұрын

The most educational rants ever. :)

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-))

@SergiMedina Ай бұрын

I will only start building a position on INTC again if it's REALLY cheap and "keeps" or keeps proving the good prospects of the company. We'll see. Thanks!

@istvan.design Ай бұрын

The new Intel CPUs are great (almost as good as Apple with x86 architecture and not using the latest and greatest chips) , Battlemage looks great on leaked benchmarks, they will soar if anything happens with Taiwan, even temporarily.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@TechPeeves Ай бұрын

undervalued now, a buy? recently government said they will provide billions stimulus to intel but require them to stop selling to huawei. what do you think?

@vaibhavsingh9x Ай бұрын

Small correction: Intel did spin off a small portion of Mobileye as an IPO (ticker: MBLY)

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for adding!

@seva9375 Ай бұрын

Did you read all annual reports and letters to shareholders from warren buffet and berkshire?

@sarthakagarwal7917 6 күн бұрын

if you have read, whats there in it?

@seva9375 Күн бұрын

@@sarthakagarwal7917 I watched all annual meetings up to 2017 and after I watched all I want to read all aother things from Buffet and Munger. I think it's providing the right mindset about investing and life.

@jsmith-pf2bt Ай бұрын

what happened to the dividends

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

they cut those to grow :-))))

@panathaninf Ай бұрын

my hope is that, similarly to AMD and practically all the tech stocks, one day funds will "realize" that the biggest semiconductor company, every year minus one SSD stellar year for Samsung and probably this year with NVIDIA and AI craze, cannot be valued 3x its yearly revenue and skyrocket the company to 10x like all rest... Will it happen before 2030? Don't think so...

@Spura83 Ай бұрын

Every time a company has shit growth they will put up a graph that says something like this: low single digits for next 2-3 years, then the growth will go up. Then they hope everyone has amnesia by the time that rolls around. I love how you pull up 2020-2022 presentations of many of these companies and expose their CEOs' lies. Buffet says he never reads presentation decks about companies because that's like listening to a used car salesman's pitch. Of course they will say everything is gonna go great. These days earnings calls and guidances are all about how far optimistic they can go without getting a lawsuit. Intel fell asleep at the wheel and now they are playing catch-up in an industry with long R&D times and huge capex while rates are high. No way I am paying p/e 30 for that.

@Cleisthenes607 Ай бұрын

Would be interested to hear your take on QCOM given they're going into the laptop market with an ARM based CPU and of course they're going heavy into automotive. I am tempted to start opening a position into them but waiting for the price to fall and also to see how the Snapdragon X elite chip performs and whether Microsoft finally starts supporting Windows on ARM properly, hopefully given what Apple has done with the M series of chips it will have lit a fire under MSOFT's ass. Long term client computing is moving away from Intel's x86 to arm chips, Apple led the way and windows will follow. It's inevitable.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

Thanks for suggesting

@Kep19901 Ай бұрын

I love sven's rants. Keep it up.

@neilcameron434 Ай бұрын

Pat Gelsinger talks like nvidia, walls like IBM.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

good one!

@stephenkowalski2448 Ай бұрын

Wow, now i can consider just buying it back again, this company is a real roller coaster

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-))))

@dredoctor8271 Ай бұрын

Hellyes! Let's get INTEL to 25$ and sven makes another vid about INTEL.👏

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-))))

@JustAlf87 Ай бұрын

Mobile-eye was spun-off in October 2022. Intel still owns like 88% of the company. Smart move, IMO.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for adding!

@JuanBattaglia45 22 күн бұрын

Same Margin of Safety conclusion, from the P/S angle.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

:-)

@ussul6524 Ай бұрын

I am in for a longer run. Like those hops you suggested. Now it is kinda unstable bc they are building several sites. Chip is flagged as strategic component for USA. If China attacks Taiwan TSMC goes down.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

that is also a way of looking at it!

@stephenkowalski2448 Ай бұрын

I laugh how Cisco and Intel were so hot in year 2000, dont worry, Tesla and Nvidia will be hot trash in 20 years too

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)))

@user-no2zz5pu7j Ай бұрын

Tesla has hype but makes sporadic runs up and then back down. It skyrockteted in 2023 before dipping and now, over a sudden, it moves up are breaking daily records. In general it's nividia and meta who been the most relentless

@gimusk5667 Ай бұрын

Intel for life!

@simonefiaschi9076 Ай бұрын

Intel a questi prezzi grande affare, come sempre te lo farò presente più avanti

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

sicurament :-)

@david2057 Ай бұрын

What about you portfolio Sven?

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

no intel there

@magalengo Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing”You choose wisely.”

@simonefiaschi9076 Ай бұрын

Intel grande affare a questi prezzi

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

grazie!

@user-ni5zn6yx4h Ай бұрын

I bought 306 call on 35 break even and right now I loss 49% and it’s expired 24 of may what should I do can you help me plzzz 😢😢😢😢😢😢

@radiologyfinance1478 Ай бұрын

Do not buy Call again.

@user-ni5zn6yx4h Ай бұрын

@@radiologyfinance1478 should I exit

@bobbobertson7568 Ай бұрын

Tuned in for the Sven Intel fraud rant

@user-ov8sv9ns5l 8 күн бұрын

Going $100. Patience is the key.

@Value-Investing 7 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing

@user-ov8sv9ns5l 23 күн бұрын

Too cheap to ignore. Buy for a strong recovery.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@stockmarketideas Ай бұрын

Good video! Tough call in $INTC with debt and other companies doing well.

@michaelslifecycle Ай бұрын

It’s good debt though

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)

@d-sto687 Ай бұрын

Only question is: can intel compete with tsm at foundry. If yes it is a 60-80 usd Stock otherwise 25-30 usd

@ibrahimciftci9599 Ай бұрын

Long term they will being backed by the government

@evilhorde8151 Ай бұрын

no it can't. US is already heavily invested in TSMC for that reason

@ibrahimciftci9599 Ай бұрын

@@evilhorde8151 I think that’s for another reason knowing Taiwan will fall at one point and why not build factories instead in the USA than in Taiwan.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)

@crohmer Ай бұрын

@@ibrahimciftci9599 taiwan will fall at one point? How do you know the future? You dont

@JB-jkhb1972 Ай бұрын

Quite the same analysis I did…. Still remember the spring 2022 ceo presentation……. One big disappointment…..

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)

@mazda9964 Ай бұрын

Sven I completely agree with you on Intel, its a kinda shady company in different “behaviors” from accounting shenanigans, stellar growth stories and fundamentally marketing their products as very premium. I always said to people not very expert in semis (as most wall street people) that this industry is incredibly difficult and Intel during the late 10s got their “status” while really doing nothing to improve and other companies were struggling. 20s and 30s are going to be a totally different story, Intel is behind light years in a lot of products its “premium status” is gone and looking uglier. As you said it can just be a commodity cicle trade.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks!

@worldtravel4973 Ай бұрын

Love it when you said “you think I am an idiot, Pat”

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-))

@angelsancheese Ай бұрын

If Pat laid off all the sales people, I will put like 20% of my money on intel. He needs to change the culture to focus on software and hardware engineers... don't see that happening

@marinikc8780 Ай бұрын

yes, at 25 i'd be a buyer, for a swing trade! although I don't like management - he lies investors (remember when he said they won't cut dividends and after a month they did) and especially I don't like the fact they burn money with not so much results...!

@dnt000 22 күн бұрын

I am thinking of buying at 31, good idea?

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

the risk and reward is discussed in the video!

@KenjiEspresso Ай бұрын

INTC sucks. They haven’t innovated in decades

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

there have been ups and downs:-)

@ExilSvensk Ай бұрын

For me it should go down to 20 PE before it becomes interesting. Right now it's got things speaking for it, such as fab capacity, but the management seems to be completely lost and still has issues shaking that they're no longer the kings on the hill. This attitude of "we're so great we don't need to innovate" is the biggest hidden danger inside of Intel.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

they tried that a while ago

@itayoded1155 Ай бұрын

Intel, the strategy is simple, buy when you see insider buying

@craiglawrenson8428 Ай бұрын

CEO just bought 4,100 shares

@giovannip8600 Ай бұрын

you will buy too late then :P

@EmpowerlyTech Ай бұрын

Great! If the insiders are buying is because they have more hot information saying their stock will go high soon ;-)

@giovannip8600 Ай бұрын

Just like with wirecard... Were you guys born yesterday?

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@user-vy3ou3gz3f Ай бұрын

If you work in semiconductor, you understand why Intel can not catch up with TSMC. There is news that they bought the latest High NA machines from ASML, however, it will take them years to build up the process to make a finer chip. So do not see Intel getting any better for next one year.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

I agree with that!

@jonnes__4657 Ай бұрын

🗽 INTC is very disappointing... my summary 🤨 .

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)

@pedromiguel-fs7ux Ай бұрын

Sven, please make a video about chinese casino stocks before it's too late😃

@tsonez Ай бұрын

🤣

@pedromiguel-fs7ux Ай бұрын

@@tsonez I wasn't being ironic 😼 some stocks didn't recovered since covid shutdown and revenues are growing. It might be a good bet

@PulverizerA Ай бұрын

How did Warren Buffett beat the market? He didn't invest in INTC. I got into INTC in 2019 and got out last December, when the AI hype popped the stock to $50. I consider myself lucky to have gotten out without losing money. Watch some of the tech channels on KZfaq to see how bad INTC is doing. They're going to lose share for the foreseeable future. Pat is FAIL.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@ThomasMelc-vh4pq Ай бұрын

Please do a video on china stocks 🥹

@tsonez Ай бұрын

Not maybe neeeded. Consider the risk-adjusted return on average. Propability for China's action in Taiwan is high enough there's low rational reason to invest in any Chinese business. I think, even if PRC policy makes a 180-degree turn, on average the Chinese business valuations are currently too high for an adequate return for the risk taken... A video on Apple could be more sensible now when Wall Street is starting to disfavour it. Also, European luxury could be something.

@Jimson-wx8uq Ай бұрын

Both Intel and AMD have benefitted from the AI hype cycle, but talk to any AI engineer and they'll tell you that Nvidia chips are the only ones they can use in their rigs. Intel's newer chips don't have material performance increases compared to old ones and they are using marketing to make up the difference. They're rapidly losing ground to AMD in the Laptop CPU space.

@qubeplaygaming699 Ай бұрын

If you actually follow the technology alot of these ai engines are likely to consume fewer gpu in the future as we improve and make the systems more efficient.

@michaelslifecycle Ай бұрын

The amount of infrastructure they’re building will quickly push them back up as the #1 player in the industry when it is put into affect

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing guys!

@Danyel307 Ай бұрын

It's funny how you blame Pat for the underinvestment of the previous CEO, which, if I remember correctly, you praised. You should have mentioned that there were no investments in R&D for so many years before Pat, and all the money was siphoned to investors through dividends and buybacks.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

I don't blame Pat for switching to growth, I blame him for saying 10% growth and than delivering a decline of 50% in revenues. He knew that was coming.

@ibrahimciftci9599 Ай бұрын

The next IBM

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@Pizza-gb1ch Ай бұрын

@3:02 "Judgment"

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:')

@pb6481 Ай бұрын

I am not a technical analyst, but I think I prefer to wait until that downward momentum has calmed down for the Intel stock price.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

they you are waiting for a margin of safety and book value

@pb6481 Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing true, but sometimes a stock can look cheap for a long time while the momentum is downward. So I try to understand a little bit of both the technical and the fundamental. To me it seems (also thanks to your content) that both technical and fundamental say it's best to wait for better opportunities when it comes to Intel :)

@JackDespero Ай бұрын

"Unfortunately", I have become a team red user, AMD. After so many hours spend over the last years trying to buy a good computer, for me Intel is actually often a drawback (I usually buy Ryzen instead of i-series). Just yesterday I bought a Ryzen 9 because AMD allows with almost all their Ryzen to have ECC RAM memory, while with Intel you need to go to their Xeon series, etc. I remember back in the days when it was Intel, and the rest was garbage that they put on a "gaming laptop" to reduce the cost. Now a days it almostt feels the opposite, and thus why I cannot invest in Intel, despite the numbers. There are plenty of consumers that do not care at all and will buy whatever, and some that are still stuck with the mantra of "Intel Inside", and many manufacturers still force you to have Intel if you want certain specs, so Intel will probably see business. I might be wrong, but my guts just do not allow me to bet against my instincts.

@Deepzombie Ай бұрын

The problem for intel is their power consumption of their architectures, this is why they are nowhere to be seen in mobile. Investing in intel is to invest in the PC. If they shape up one could make a lot of money, personally I put this one in the “too hard pile”.

@tiagosantos680 Ай бұрын

This time is related to Snapdragon Elite X Soc coming soon, intel will lose all laptop market

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@davidcunningham2074 Ай бұрын

intel's p/e is still 31.4 that does not represent good value especially for a company trhat lies and manipulates so much.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

keep in mind the cycle, if it is there, the PE will be 6 in two years, but, if it is there

@jackgoldman1 Ай бұрын

Stocks up since 1933. Gold up since 1933. Housing up since 1933. Will debasement continue forever? Very possible. Protect yourself.

@hodoprime Ай бұрын

Valued way too high for a cigar butt

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@nunoduarte8984 Ай бұрын

Day #2 asking Sven ti analyse CVS health :)

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

not really my kind of business :-( I don't know enough about US healthcare regulation

@nunoduarte8984 Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing thank you for your kind answer 👍🏽

@maorlevy7233 Ай бұрын

As the ceo sum up everything on recent interview - " intel was chip design company with foundry business and now is foundry company with chip design business". BIG CHANGE!! For me its a no go even at 25, even at 20, there are 50,000 business out there why stay stuck on the same names over and over, the market will give the foundry business 20 pe at best! At best, so margin of safety for me here is 2 eps * 8 pe is 16 P/S

@florestores Ай бұрын

X86 procesors (Intel, AMD) are stuck in a mud against ARM processors from competitors like (Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung)...they will probably have a bad ending if they don't adapt. Billions will disapire if they stay on the same path. X86 chips are not in phones, tablets, smartwatches and they even have no future in laptops anymore.

@kristof6372 Ай бұрын

It's not IF here would be delays, its WHEN there will be delays. They have lost a lot of credibility over the years before 2021. I hoped with Mr. Gelsinger it would change, but I already changed my tune on that about that about 1 year ago (not that he is as bad as the previous 2 CEO's).

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

there will certainly be delays, that is for sure :-)))

@ryanh9388 Ай бұрын

Long-term I have no faith in their management or culture so it is a hard pass on this business.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@ryanh9388 Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing thank you as always for sharing your thoughts. I do love your longer videos.

@crohmer Ай бұрын

intel clearly has issues but Sven has been dissing them and management for years now, he obviously has bias

@MattM-oe6qs Ай бұрын

Or he has logic. 😂

@pietropasotti4418 Ай бұрын

TSM is a better foundry than Intel. AMD makes better processors than Intel. GPU: Nvidia is no match for Intel. Although I bought a bit of Intel now, I don't believe in the company but can be a good swing trade imho.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@sjdarlak Ай бұрын

St Micro much better semicon business

@jamesburns679 Ай бұрын

Would love to see this at 25

@agz4370 3 күн бұрын

This guys brain needs to incorporate some common sense.

@Value-Investing 3 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@kevinp5119 Ай бұрын

Seems like Intel is on a road to nowhere. I held for so long and got tired after years of absolutely no results.

@RoTelnCheese Ай бұрын

If you gave up on it why are you watching videos on it? It’s like watching an ex on social media, time to move on buddy. Someone else will love and hold it for decades to come

@kevinp5119 Ай бұрын

@@RoTelnCheese I tend to watch most of Sven's videos and I wanted to hear what he has to say. My comment was a warning to others.

@kevinp5119 Ай бұрын

@@RoTelnCheese Love is a very optimistic word.

@franekwrobel1449 Ай бұрын

Intel is a 2027 Q3 play at the earliest. Do you even understand what investing is?

@kevinp5119 Ай бұрын

@@franekwrobel1449 Mr Wrobel, I bought my first shares of Intel over 10 years ago. Sold most of it over the years for very uninspiring profits. I'm no expert but I did buy my first stock in 1989, so I have been around for a whole. As for Intel, I would not bet the farm on it. Bottom line means a lot.

@therighteous802 Ай бұрын

Made money here, made money there, Sven made money everywhere.

@lionrock2023 Ай бұрын

intel Amish Galsinger is well loved and trusted by christian nationalists, but the problem seems to be a lack of christian nationalist in the investor community.

@davidedeltoro4117 Ай бұрын

I trust you Sven, but i don't trust Pat. I cannot see value in this one at the moment, smells like a value trap! But i appreciate your work as always!

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

that is why the margin of safety could be at 80% of book