Nestle Stock Analysis - Another Great Business Getting Cheaper

No video

Nestle Stock Analysis - Another Great Business Getting Cheaper

Рет қаралды 23,901

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

Nestle Stock Analysis as requested.
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
sven-carlin-re...
Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-re...
I am also a book author:
Modern Value Investing book:
amzn.to/2lvfH3t
The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
www.interactiv...

Пікірлер: 182

@massimopasquini8700 4 ай бұрын

What I don't like about Swiss stocks is the 35% withholding tax on dividends, which - if I'm not mistaken - is the highest among western countries

@Christineperkins-uw8ow 4 ай бұрын

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield long-term profits

@nonexistent5030 4 ай бұрын

@@Christineperkins-uw8owlmfao good joke

@dodid0 4 ай бұрын

You know what's worse? Swiss citizens don't pay dividend tax nor income tax.

@Christineperkins-uw8ow 4 ай бұрын

@nonexistent5030 you care to explain why you feel it's a joke?

@apc9714 4 ай бұрын

Yes, and you have to add your country divideds tax rate on top of it

@s4b1n123 4 ай бұрын

What happened to the intrinsic value calculation table? I found quite good value in that, as it was easily showing the relative value of stocks to each other. Did it go away because of the paradigm change with rising interest rates?

@mircoc2357 4 ай бұрын

I guess no I mean interest rate are not to be blamed, since he sold all his portfolio He has changed his approch in investing wich his now based on current price earing. Basically buy stock at a low P/E. This is my guess.

@leswhynin913 4 ай бұрын

7:10 it would take a significant market drawdown for Nestle to reach 50% of current price, in which case i would likely be far more interested in other opportunities

@konstantingeorgiev7521 Ай бұрын

Nestle is a great stock for an upcoming stagnation. As many stocks go down from lower consumption, people will still buy food. Not just any food, but the kind of food Nestle makes.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

yes, PE ratio 22

@sirogersiroger8835 4 ай бұрын

Hi Sven, love the quick Stock analyses. Would love to See Mc Donalds. Thanks

@Eline_Meijer 4 ай бұрын

Nestle is one of the most evil corporations. Not for me. Thank you for the video Sven.

@TheTrig86 4 ай бұрын

Why evil?

@Christineperkins-uw8ow 4 ай бұрын

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield dividends soon

@Eline_Meijer 4 ай бұрын

@@TheTrig86 google it

@Manuel-ou6bh 4 ай бұрын

This is exactly the video I wanted. Great. Thank you!

@Energy4free_ 4 ай бұрын

Great analyse Sven, but how much do you take into account the taxes for dividends and the appreciation/depreciation of the currency against euro when you analyse the stock?

@davidedeltoro4117 4 ай бұрын

I tell you a Sad Joke Sven. 3,19% Dividend Yield in a Swiss Stock, trasmute to a 1,54% Net Yield for an Italian Retail Investor (double tax -35% Swiss and 26% Italian). Treasuries are taxed at 12,5% (no double tax), so today 4,60% on a 10Y trasmute to a 4,02% Net Yield. Tax dramas asides, i'd like to take a look at Nestlè under 18 times current earnings. Thanks for your work 🍫

@semhustej 4 ай бұрын

Are you sure you have to pay the full Italian 26%? In Czech republic, we can offset some part of the tax payed out in foreign country, so that usually means we do not have to pay our full 15% local dividend tax. Usually we have to pay only 0, 5 or 10 % more over the tax already payed in a foreign country.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@TheScaryGermanGuy 4 ай бұрын

An alternative is to sell the stock before ex-dividend day and then rebuy it a day later. That way you can bypass the dividend tax and rebuy the stock at a lower price (usually lowered by the dividend amount).

@davidedeltoro4117 4 ай бұрын

@@semhustej I'm sure 100%.. In Italy retail investors are double taxed on dividends in almost every country.. one of the few exception is the UK (no double tax).. the funny part is to pay double tax on Ferrari and Stellantis (Ex FCA) dividends, because they domiciled on the Netherlands in recent years.. 😨🤡

@davidedeltoro4117 4 ай бұрын

@@TheScaryGermanGuy Can be a solution for short term trading position

@nataliam895 4 ай бұрын

Thank you for this analysis. Grüsse aus der Schweiz 🎉

@owendavies8227 4 ай бұрын

I have ethical issues with investing in Nestle.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@bulu4927 4 ай бұрын

Yay greetings from switzerland , sven!

@Mark.remarking 4 ай бұрын

Nice overview and analysis Sven. Thank you. I don't see if the cash flow growth. I mean it looks like they're trying, but I'm not sure they are more than a cash cow. And of course, they are vulnerable to commodity prices of sugar and cocoa. Not a buy from me.

@ioand1015 4 ай бұрын

Very good review Sven! I was wondering if we can have an update on $UNH, I had it on my radar for some time, was waiting for bad news or some drama to pull down the price and I executed. The multiples look really attractive now considering the projected growth, high barriers of entry, how well it is run and the consistency of this business.

@nonexistent5030 4 ай бұрын

Did you account for regulatory risk though?

@ioand1015 4 ай бұрын

There always is regulatory risk with high moat monopolistic businesses. Alphabet and Microsoft were hit with multiple lawsuits a few years back. Where are these companies today? IMO the margin of safety for $UNH is adequate today but we would all enjoy to see what Sven thinks about it.

@jonathankr 4 ай бұрын

Nestle Ceo: "Water is not a human right". Lol

@dinoXAs2 4 ай бұрын

I remembered something like this... yeah they can keep their stock and madness

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@The_WolfPack_Alpha 3 ай бұрын

Former CEO, and 11 Years ago*

@dinoXAs2 3 ай бұрын

@@The_WolfPack_Alpha So nowdays its even worse

@jonnes__4657 4 ай бұрын

🗽 I like the Nestlé stock! 👍 If the stock falls by 50% I will buy more shares. .

@nonexistent5030 4 ай бұрын

Yeah 20 p/e in inflationary regime with cocoa futures skyrocketing makes confectionsists look terrible. Give me a p/e of 10 and I'll dive in.

@LukaTrnic-bn3dh 4 ай бұрын

Can you look at Hersheys, similar industry and dividend although in us which means better witholding tax. Perhaps the cocoa prices will stabilise and stock price will reuturn to highs?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

That would be an interesting topic, thanks!

@dimitribulatov7937 4 ай бұрын

Hello Sven and thank you for the video. I am invested in Nestlé and am honestly worried about debts. Question: if comperitors-companies like Ahold or Orkla are 20% cheaper, but grow faster and reinvest their profits... Are they not offering a better investment case?

@Christineperkins-uw8ow 4 ай бұрын

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield dividends long-term

@j.c.4192 4 ай бұрын

Cheaper is not better. Given energy prices in europe is uncompetitive thanks to blowing up ns2

@jeromerouge1979 4 ай бұрын

You miss to say that Nestlé owns 20.1% of L'Oréal !!! Your intrinsic valuation might be a bit better ...

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

I look at cash flows! If they sell, do buybacks, the stock goes up, but that is just financial engineering. Plus, hard to sell such a stake.

@emanuelecalamia6219 4 ай бұрын

Hi Sven, Thanks for the great analysis. I would love to hear your opinionion about Zignago Vetro, an italian company with a 1 billion market cap. The company produces glass for the cosmetic and food areas , it has grown a lot in the last 10 years and has record margins among industrials. The p/e is around 10 and the dividend yield about 5,5%. Thanks !

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

glass? give me a recession first

@T0mkisss 4 ай бұрын

How is it a return of 5% *Plus* 3-6% growth? You showed a graph that the company revenue and net income are completely flat. The EPS will have grown by 3% over the last decade because of the 3% buybacks, which is inside the 5% "return". So would be double counting.

@pettirosso252 4 ай бұрын

3-6% organic growth is what Nestle is projecting for 2024-2025

@pedromiguel-fs7ux 4 ай бұрын

@@pettirosso252I also don't understand why the dividend is considered "return". It subtracts the stock price as you know. It's just realized gains /losses with withholding tax. Or I'm missing something?

@T0mkisss 4 ай бұрын

@@pettirosso252 I thought it must be something more credible, but you're probably right. For context - Swiss inflation has devalued the currency 6.4% over the last 3 years, so I do hope they "grow" 3-6% in the next couple of years. But then, I assume the management expected to grow at times during the last 10 years and the end result was flat.

@_mklein 4 ай бұрын

I was actually going to ask you to review this Stock! Thanks Sven! Cheers from the UK

Ай бұрын

You got a new follower. Great content

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

Welcome aboard!

@DevinSmith1486 5 сағат бұрын

can you do cvs? i just bought half a positoin

@LeszekChojnacki 4 ай бұрын

Many thanks, waiting for Roche :)

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

That is not my cup of tea

@LeszekChojnacki 4 ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing :(

@unclesamson 4 ай бұрын

You forgot the 20% stake in L'Oreal ;)

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

that might not be valuable as you might think

@Politik-mit-Kopf 4 ай бұрын

Funny how I coincidentally opened the position yesterday. 😂 It’s a conservative bet. Nothing fancy but a Risk Reward Ratio that works for me.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

:-)

@vigszilard4651 4 ай бұрын

Hi Sven, I've been thinking about copper for the past few days, and I realized that I don't really know any companies that deal with copper, processing. Would you make a video in which you name a couple in which we can look into and follow? Thanks 🖐🏼

@TheMainStreetInvestor 4 ай бұрын

Great analysis as always! I have been digging into HSY lately, Nestle looks like it has good potential as well

@kristiant6056 4 ай бұрын

Bought last week for me and my wife.

@saethman 4 ай бұрын

Regarding your brief comment on the volatile buybacks; I noticed that Nestle, unlike many others, increased the buybacks during the financial crisis. That's what we want to see; aggressive buybacks when the share-price takes a hit :) However, they have increased the buybacks the last few years - at a price that isn't depressed

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

crisis was in 2009, not 2007

@saethman 4 ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing They did more buybacks in 2009 than in 2007. Sure they reduced somewhat in 2009 compared to 2008, but I would still be happy to see that kind of buybacks in a company that I own (I don't own Nestle)

@felipeturbayr 4 ай бұрын

More of this stuff Sven! 😊 looking for good opportunities out there 👍

@chamindasilva3191 4 ай бұрын

Good presentation. Solid stock overshadowed by AI phenomena.

@potomac5466 4 ай бұрын

I would have never thought that you could say anything nice about Nestle after hearing multiple times how you talk about Unilever.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for commenting

@erikm9768 3 ай бұрын

Hi Sven. Why do you think they will grow 6%? Considering they have had negative growth over the past 15 years ot me it looks just as likely that they will shrink 6%

@MrDrunkNFunky 4 ай бұрын

Sven: Mondelez or Nestle though?

@nrwalsh 4 ай бұрын

Great question Sven, what's your best 1 word answer lol

@nonexistent5030 4 ай бұрын

Probably more of a personal preference but look at ROI and leverage ratios and margins to see which best suits you.

@pedromiguel-fs7ux 4 ай бұрын

Good video! Why do you consider the dividend as part of the annual return? Isn't the dividend yield subtracted to the stock price? In theory there's no "profit", only realized income with some withholding tax. Thank you!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

the dividend is earned through the year

@sandysamith7218 4 ай бұрын

What would be your pick between NSRGY, UL and MDLZ? 💭

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

none

@indian0405 4 ай бұрын

This is great! I really appreciate your contents! Would you please do an analysis on BABA? Thank you!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@SireStefan 4 ай бұрын

You mentioned Dr Martens in a video from 6 months ago, and said it was an ok-ish business. The stock is 50% down since then. Maybe an opportunity? I am not sure whether the latest plunge is an overreaction or an actual problem and would love to hear your opinion.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

maybe, thus not a value investing thing

@joeg9829 4 ай бұрын

I rather buy vhyl/schd or Something that direction, UL and nestle etc are only bags barely moving with taxed dividends and more risk imo, great vid tho

@nonexistent5030 4 ай бұрын

You can't value those though very successfully since they're ETFs so good luck buying them as a value investor! As a DCA sire, but not really opportunistic active value investor targets realistically. The goal is to beat those returns.

@Ravencroft81 4 ай бұрын

Paying 35% Swiss and on what's left 30% Belgian withholdingtax on dividends really hurts.

@MrWiffleHead 4 ай бұрын

What about Doctor Martens .......... DOCS on LSE... you mentioned as interesting before and now it has really crashed, for good reasons maybe, but could it be a value buy?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Hm, good but always fashion

@elrevesyelderecho 4 ай бұрын

Thanks!!

@blackstarmaster 4 ай бұрын

As a Swiss guy I am looking at nestle, roche (and othe srong swiss companies) all the time. The swiss franc is so incredibly strong, it would smoke euro (and probably even dollar) denominated gains right away.

@markus_bit. 4 ай бұрын

Kei Moral dä Mensch. Typisch Schwiezer.. würdisch vermuatlich sogar dieni eigni Muatr itusche, wenns Gwinn abwürfe würd.You got no moral... Typicall swiss guy.. I assume you would sell your parents, when there could be something to win.

@oliverkoi 4 ай бұрын

I am willing to invest in alcohol companies, gambling and even weapon manufacturers - but there are so many thing that are morally wrong with Nestlé.

@SheedAlmighty 2 ай бұрын

Like what

@jeremykhoo5127 Ай бұрын

@@SheedAlmighty buying fresh water from communities with no water and selling it back tk them bottled

@MiguelMartinezmtzzz 4 ай бұрын

Diageo could be an interesting one. Thanks fot the video.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@tieme1700 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for the video. I would appreciate if you did a video on all the stocks in the smi. I'm particularly interested in Zuerich Versicherungen and Swiss Life. Are they good businesses or just too big to fail?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

might do, but no insurance fo rme

@topperharley4592 4 ай бұрын

Can you take a look on AT&S. It is an Austrian Stock, a leading supplier of high-end printed circuit boards and IC substrates

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

I did a long time ago, they don't have competitive advantages and that is why the stock returned to where it was. svencarlin.com/austria-stock-exchange-list/

@_VlCTOR_ 4 ай бұрын

dividend taxation in europe is prohibitive. only for US I have 10%

@cemen777 4 ай бұрын

It doesnt look we can buy it in US.

@charlysegaert1506 4 ай бұрын

Great analysis!

@JerazEngineer-hz1ln 4 ай бұрын

Daiken industries DKILY is also trending at 52week low. Any insight around if its a good value opportunity?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

don't know :-(

@bernteinar906 4 ай бұрын

nice!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Thanks!

@Concojone5 4 ай бұрын

P/E is 19-20x, at 4.80 underlying earnings

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@LokiTheGodofMischief 4 ай бұрын

Can you do one on Keurig

@cadeneubauer7906 4 ай бұрын

GL!! 50% haircut

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

don't know much about it!

@nixielee 4 ай бұрын

dunno, they haven't converted the latest 4x debt run into any meaningful growth, everything else stagnant or stable at best

@paolodr.6140 4 ай бұрын

you would only consider 50% down from current level?? Nestlè?? better buy good business at a fair price than cigar butts at p/e of 10 because they're mediocre

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@Sherif8928 4 ай бұрын

What do you think about UA , it is nearly at all time low

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for suggesting

@useyourbrain1232 4 ай бұрын

I prefer Unilever personally

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@pascal5142 4 ай бұрын

why would anybody at your age buy a company that isnt growing much anymore? 10% compounded over 10 years is way better than buying an overvalued bluechip involved in all kinds of lawsuits

@zzkzz7727 4 ай бұрын

Kind of breaks Warren's rule of investing in ethical and honest management. Just a bit.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@Alexander5400sonne 4 ай бұрын

I have only one single investment agreement with my wife: never put any money into the Nestlé stock. Grüsse aus Zürich 🇨🇭

@elementaltamago1297 4 ай бұрын

SEND IT TO THE TRUCK STOP!!!!

@ufopiloot 3 ай бұрын

Not for me.

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

:-)

@B2-eo5be 4 ай бұрын

Nestle is still doing business in Russia, so it is not a buy for me, and I don't care about valuation.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@marcod886 4 ай бұрын

Sven, let's be honest... you do NOT really like this stock 😂

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

I think I said that also

@crysis3ify 4 ай бұрын

Nestle is like most evil company now. Like monsanto

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@liban2 4 ай бұрын

I will not buy because they are abusing the human rights of people in Africa. Absolutely disgraceful company

@FukenRonald 4 ай бұрын

Hi Sven, thanks for another great video. Curious about your thoughts on Hershey that is currently facing a problem with the cocoa price (bad harvest)..