Lithium Stocks Are Getting More & More Interesting...

Рет қаралды 20,130

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Ай бұрын

Lithium stocks are getting more and more interesting as those keep crashing but demand for lithium keeps growing as EVs are still in demand. There will always be ups and downs but that is normal with commodities and cyclicals. Here is my take.
Lithium sector video • 5 Lithium Stocks & Det...
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Пікірлер: 163

@linegoesup-tl1hq Ай бұрын

for people concerned about other battery types, solid state are years away still maybe 2027, and sodium batteries are alot heavier than lithium and wont be used for everything. Vanadium batteries are too big and will be used for grid storage mostly. So lithium batteries will definetly be the midway technology we have until 2027 -2030. Used for our personal devices, EVs , aerospace. but again, do your own research into the technologies to decide

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@yufachan6712 Ай бұрын

It was your previous video about lithium companies led me found your channel. I agree with your thesis that this industry is approaching Lynch’s cyclical stock buying range. Bets down, let’s see how it rolls out in the coming 3 years

@jasonalexander7089 Ай бұрын

What critical buying? Everything other than the mega caps just get attacked and vampired by short sellers now. Government by the people!!!

@paulbradford3927 Ай бұрын

Thanks for the video. Great to see you reacting to my requests!

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-)

@elrevesyelderecho Ай бұрын

8:25 Thanks. It sounds like Christmas arrives early this year to me. Looking forward to read the full reports later on to start buying

@aptibabayt Ай бұрын

I was waiting for this video. Thanks Sven!

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

Hope you enjoyed it!

@dexterhatchet3529 Ай бұрын

thanks Sven, great info again!

@andypicken7848 Ай бұрын

Very interesting. Thanks for posting

@KonstantinosSiachras Ай бұрын

Another awesome video. I had already bought a few Albemarle stocks as a tracker. So i guess i need little more patience :)

@BtotheW Ай бұрын

good day sven

@sjoerdpeeters3797 Ай бұрын

I think the biggest risk over the long term for lithium is if there are more efficient batteries developed and used which involves no lithium

@thetonymontanya Ай бұрын

very much agree. sodium batteries etc. my understanding however is that lithium is the only compound currently capable of being used in the size of battery that a car would need. the edge of tech rn is in the design of the battery (as far as large applications). stacks vs coils etc, all still using lithium as the main alkaloid

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

yep, you never know with tech

@Among_T_P 20 күн бұрын

Agree but there is no any other battery can replace lithium for now.. especially for EV

@javiermaol Ай бұрын

Thanks a lot Sven for your videos! Your channel has a huge quality for ideas and value investing approach. I would kindly suggest you to analyse in a future video nickel productor (if it is ok for you, if not, no problem). Nickel and lithium go down this year and I think both commodities will go up in the medium term. Kind regards for a Spanish value investor.

@austinollinger82 Ай бұрын

Thanks Sven!

@ASMR-Economics Ай бұрын

Hi Sven, could you make an updated version of your Extrimistan and Mediocristan video? That is the one that made me discover your channel and made me a lot of profits over the years! Thanks Sven, re reading your book at the moment

@theodoroseidler7072 Ай бұрын

Excellent Sven

@herokorai8346 Ай бұрын

Your style and personality fits well with cyclical type of investments (value trading style, trigger happy on selling). I agree with your strategy but not for me at this time. I only buy cyclicals when its 1 - really compelling (trading less liquidation value, reasonable balance sheet, etc.), 2 - there are no other opportunities to buy quality companies with high ROE/ROIC, moat, etc. at a discount. Right now, there are still quality companies trading between 10-15x forward cashflows. 3 - there is a clear pathway to turnaround (Peter Lynch mentioned this in a conference). If you go in blindly without enough MOS, you can get stuck for years.

@jasonalexander7089 Ай бұрын

I think anything other than mega caps just get attacked by short sellers now. Look at wba today. I thought this would be a good value investment and I lost more on wba than even shorting the dow Jones with sdow.

@matmaism Ай бұрын

It doesn't make sense to be too dogmatic. You would be extremely fortunate to see Alb drop 30% from here to meet your criteria, likely only on full blown recession panic. There is still demand growth and a reversal of rates is going to send it higher.

@hurlentropy6866 Ай бұрын

I'm loading on ALB. We are in a recession. A local one

@pettirosso252 Ай бұрын

REMX etf is down 63% from the peak of 2022. Perhaps could be useful to check its components and if it can be an attractive alternative for diversification

@investingtips2957 Ай бұрын

What you think about Glencore ?

@truncksZR Ай бұрын

Sven you mention recession in Europe in near future but what about US stocks and recession?

@arnaldopacheco6335 29 күн бұрын

Seeing miners like Albemarle or SQM at -70% is a blessing. Bought them today and hope to buy the rest when they are at -75% and expect 5x in the next 2 years

@Value-Investing 28 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@matteoperini19 29 күн бұрын

Hi Sven. Can you comment on how rigid is the supply for lithium?

@Value-Investing 28 күн бұрын

they have so much cash from the last two years, thus....

@AugustoIacobucci Ай бұрын

$Altm 🚀

@zacktube100 Ай бұрын

I remember reading maybe the Morning Star evaluation in Schwab of ALB that lithium starts to become unprofitable below $15k / meter ton and it's at $12.8k now so production should slow. Morning Star for the longest time has had ALB as a five stars and price target of $275, which was $300 before shares were diluted.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@yuriyivanov Ай бұрын

Hi Sven. Thanks for work you do. Can you do some analysis on Uranium stocks. I open the position on Kazatomprom . I think nuclear power is the solution in green energy. I’m planning to add from Canada and Australia uranium companies. Is interesting to see your view. Thanks again

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for suggesting!

@z704w40 Ай бұрын

Big risk for lithium stocks is the technology change to Sodium batteries.

@marjanpavlovski Ай бұрын

@Hellofresh stock. What do you think about it?

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

don't know, haven't analysed

@brendansmith7842 Ай бұрын

Hello Sven, Walgreens has been cut in half since your last video not recommending it on earnings. Any thoughts at this price? I see it is trading at a 4 pe now.

@providencez9496 Ай бұрын

It's going towards bankruptcy starting few years back. Get over this name and move on. Unless they managed to prove they are able to turn around

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

why now?

@BtotheW Ай бұрын

Hey Sven what do you think of coal producers like Peabody?

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

that I missed it a few years ago :-(

@ayo9057 Ай бұрын

Sven 💰💰

@augustus331 Ай бұрын

One thing I want to add is that sodium ion batteries and lithium alternatives are heavily invested in by China and other major powers. Sodium ion is not feasible yet for most applications, but as it’s much more prevalent and environmentally responsible than lithium-ion batteries, you can be assured that once it’s feasible it will be a big competitor of lithium. And it will compete with lithium as a superior material. Edit: Lithium might however be more suitable for grid-scale battery storage solutions. The focus would in my view be too narrow to only consider the EV market for battery material companies.

@matmaism Ай бұрын

By the time they are feasible, solid states batteries are likely to exist - then you're back to lithium at the core of it

@augustus331 7 күн бұрын

@@matmaism It's very hard to assess TRLs years down the line, we tend to believe it when someone like Musk says "technology x is ready in 2 years", but it is usually non-predictable as developing new technologies and implementing them into existing systems is extremely diffcult. I work in the energy transition and face this stuff every day.

@spencerblack7943 Ай бұрын

Yes, SLB and PEMIF are very interesting

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@HossamaldinAbdulhady Ай бұрын

Should we start a small position now.¿

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

depends on your strategy

@user-yd8wp8rz2b Ай бұрын

Still holding and waiting for ALTM to recover.

@SomeGuy-ws5zj Ай бұрын

I am buying LAC My minimum metric Fibo target 🎯 is 1.8 USD. It's near.

@peezpeez1317 Ай бұрын

A cyclical can turn into a dead fly very quickly. Too much uncertainty in lithium stocks. A lots of these stocks would either get merger or go burst before they see could a EV boom. It better to buy an diversified lithium eft to spread out the risk even through you get a low return than trying to pick out the winners.

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

In mining I’d rather pick winners. Low cost of production, low cost of production, low cost of production

@davidhidalgo8465 28 күн бұрын

Although global automotive companies are cutting back their EV investments, it’s a no brainer to know that the electrification of the automotive industry is here to stay

@LDP.. Ай бұрын

We know energy demand is going to rise hugely due to the AI revolution and renewable energy storage. Lithium prices therefore will rise as the production will reach a certain limit

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@Albannas Ай бұрын

I don't understand point of investing in comodities. Nobody have competitive advantage, prices are unpredictable so all in all unpredictable businesses.

@paulrobbo321 Ай бұрын

Sadly very true, the smart money trades these things, oil, copper and every other commodity is essentially just a short term trade. Trying to own these things and not being an out and out specialist will leave you behind the curve and that’s before you get to the company specific risk. These are miners with the added risk of a uncertain market. Price is the only thing that means anything with these things, anything is just a punt

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

cost of production is the advantage, every miner is different!

@Albannas Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing it is rats race, advantages are too small, noone have a moat. Prices are set by demand/supply and not by pricing power

@dredoctor8271 Ай бұрын

Chile sits on a hughe deposits of lithium, the biggest in the world. Same for uranium for cleaner energy sources, Kazachstan has the biggest uranium deposit. For both countries the problem stays, how do they utilize lithium properly to produce batteries or enrich uranium. Furthermore which developed country is willing to further invest billions, which is already certain of that money will be lost. What will these developing countries do. Do they wait, until demand is much higher or are they willing to coporate for being ethic and seeing a brighter future and a cleaner world.

@hammer49946 Ай бұрын

They should have just mentioned AI in their presentation multiple times. Seems to work as of late.

@MilosevicOgnjan 13 күн бұрын

Don't know where you looked up the data from, but $ALTM has been profitable for quite a while according to all of the sources I can find. Don't know if that is the data for the merged company or just Alkem / Livent?

@Value-Investing 13 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing, and yes, they have been profitable, but lithium prices dropped recently and contract renew at the new price

@MilosevicOgnjan 12 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing I've listened to a recent interview with Paul Graves (CEO) and he was pretty reassuring in that they will remain profitable even at these prices. Also, looking at the most recent delivery data from major EV manufacturers (Tesla, BYD, Li-Auto, Xpeng, etc.), it seems that the market is recovering quite well. Add the booming of the power storage industry to that and we could very well see a recovery of the lithium prices in the relatively near future.

@viktorianas Ай бұрын

Are you relative to Oleksandr Usyk? The eyeline looks so similar to me...

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

haha, no, but I punch equally :-))))

@viktorianas Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing what concerns value stocks, you really punch above your weight indeed! 💪

@tomkoelmans4859 Ай бұрын

Hey Sven, I really enjoy your content. I have one question however on your Incentives as a contrnt creator (since you often talk about the importance of management incentives). I was wondering if you could share roughly the percentage of your income that comes from the KZfaq video compared with your research platform? It would help put the information you share into context for me. If you're not willing to share this I totally understand. Keep up the good content, I am learning a lot about investing!

@MJHarris93 Ай бұрын

He donates the KZfaq profits to charity

@RezzGaming Ай бұрын

Didn't you say arcadium lithium was already a buy before it fell 35%?

@markus_bit. Ай бұрын

No he didn't. Go and watch the video from back then carefully..

@Nimsiv Ай бұрын

When Sven says buy, he follows it with, be ready to buy more if it goes lower. That’s how you invest

@erikm9768 Ай бұрын

Yes, it could probably fall another 50% who knows... and who knows what will happen with litium in EV batteires in 3 years. not a sane investment.

@RezzGaming Ай бұрын

@@Nimsiv He said he was following it, and a buy below 8 b marketcap. It is at a 3.85 b marketcap, 'how is now only get interesting'?

@gabrielalmeida6199 Ай бұрын

He did, yes, I also understood him this way. But do you think that's a bad thing? If someone wants to sell you a pound of gold for 1$, do you get mad when the price goes further down to 0.50$ or do you buy even more?

@p.mortez9574 Ай бұрын

Lithium is the kind of stuff which can still get a heavy haircut in the next 2 years, then "moon" 400-600% after being the most hated stuff around.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

:-))))

@rudain 28 күн бұрын

You and ALB highlight that Chinese demand is growing in China, but how are the Chinese impacting lithium supply in China? I'm hearing that China wants lithium prices to remain low

@arloc24 Ай бұрын

I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Evelyn Infurna. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.

@NianLisa Ай бұрын

I know this lady you just mentioned. Evelyn Infurna Services is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as a former employee at Goldman Sachs; a renowned investor she is. Evelyn Infurna has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies n has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.

@jeffbox1torres Ай бұрын

I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Evelyn Infurna. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here

@DannielleRosales Ай бұрын

This is interesting. I heard a lot about the same person not long ago, please how can I contact her?

@arloc24 Ай бұрын

Well the name is 'Evelyn Infurna'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@arloc24 Ай бұрын

SHE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.

@HenningYT Ай бұрын

Not a battery expert but sodium-ion batteries look quite promising. I am not going to invest in Lithium stocks for the foreseeable future. Thank you for the video.

@jasonalexander7089 Ай бұрын

We don't need batteries because we have ai.

@matmaism Ай бұрын

They have low energy density and are nowhere near commercially feasible, by the time they are solid state batteries are likely to exist, will be exponentially better and back to using lithium.

@hurlentropy6866 Ай бұрын

Lol. Much less efficient. Still need lithium for nuclear reactions etc

@tamanousJP Ай бұрын

My lithium miner position is down but I’m continuing to load up. Long term it should be a good play. At the end of the day there is no replacement for chemistry element 3, and battery demand will continue to rise as battery tech continues to improve.

@paolovita1720 Ай бұрын

The question is: how long is long term? And how many bankruptcies will have to happen till then?

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@Kimdavid109 20 күн бұрын

AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.

@Lettyogle 20 күн бұрын

I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.

@gracegomez109 20 күн бұрын

No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

@liuyanli 20 күн бұрын

Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.

@gracegomez109 20 күн бұрын

BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ is who i work with and she is a hot topic even among financial elitist. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.

@liuyanli 20 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks

@pawelwielki6841 Ай бұрын

He he he . You was so very optimistic for JDE Peets and today is 40 % less and look at your movie how this company should be very good 😂

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Ай бұрын

Now do Uranium...literally the opposite on all points.

@microeconomics6725 Ай бұрын

Renegotiation of longstanding precedent may be in order if BRICS style revalance of power occurs, leading to jurisdictional jubilee, possibly, ad in case of French disposession in Niger of Uranium, down to Mexico and others renegotiating for what some will argue are more fair processes. This includes processing ore to higher stages in country of origin, considered a violation of free trade, yet argued to be the only way to 'move up the supply chain,' a competition unwanted against by established manufacturers, refiners, & processors. Yesterday Bolivia suffered an attempted coup, with some commentators noting this attempted coup follows attendence at San Pedro International Economic Forum as well as a deal of some kind for LITHIUM with China. Trump said to say Mexico-China autos will be ruinous for US autos. Let's have no war and all governments plant fruit trees to feed everyone.

@davidkoba Ай бұрын

How many lithium stocks are exposed to china? China is a big no no for me.

@Value-Investing 28 күн бұрын

60% of demand!

@davidkoba 28 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing Yikes lol

@paolovita1720 Ай бұрын

Personally, I think that the lithium cycle will take much, much longer to play out. We just entered the downturn now, give it another 2 or 3 years at the very least. There is so much growth already committed into the lithium supply, that we need to see some bankruptcies before the cycle turns.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

I see it like that too, but you never know how and when!

@oleonard7319 Ай бұрын

no the lithium miners will bottom. When the larger integrated miners start looking at buying them out. it's hard to imagine a single commodity miner can survive on it's own long term

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@backyardbandit8193 23 күн бұрын

Why did these Chinese companies bid against each other for lithium, pushing the price to $80,000 a tonne, if they knew it would come down 80% in 18 months time? How did their purchasing divisions within these companies all be so wrong with their price forecasts?

@Value-Investing 21 күн бұрын

lithium is not such a big cost of a car, thus if it is 1000 or 2000 per car ...

@backyardbandit8193 19 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing I would have thought since a Tesla is getting made every 20 seconds that would add up significantly? No?

@Alen1984 Ай бұрын

Sven was pumping alibaba when the stock was $300 I think he needs you tube to stay alive because his investment pics are terrible.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

I feel sorry for you, if you have a problem with me of all the things in life. Hope you find your happiness!

@Alen1984 Ай бұрын

I have nothing against anyone. I am simply a student trying to learn about finances and investing. So sometimes I will call on some you tubers that go online talking like they are experts and make bad calls and some people will listen to them and lose money because of them. Anyone can open you tube channel, but only few are doing things the right way. Be very careful what you preach. And don't make people that do listen to you lose money. But I see you do sometimes admit you make bad calls, and that's fair. Best of luck.

@cbliddell Ай бұрын

Hydrogen is about to blow the heck out of lithium. Don't miss the next big thing.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

could be...

@Kig_Ama Ай бұрын

13 mins of talk saying nothing.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

it is about the listener :-)

@Kig_Ama Ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing Maybe, but maybe you're just scared, be a bit braver and take a clearer stance instead of pussyfooting around. ;)

@happyt6493 Ай бұрын

Nope.

@Ravencroft81 Ай бұрын

I read Lithium may have put in a bottom but there wont be any new highs for 5-6 years. Lithium is like graphene stocks fe. nanoxplore and nouveau monde graphite, overpromising and underperforming. For some reason the biggest graphene companies are private. 🤔

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

Well if you take on every opinion you read you should never buy individual stocks

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

You should take on the market’s opinion of correct price

@Ravencroft81 Ай бұрын

@@SigFigNewton No, the opinion was explained and justified with a thesis. It's up to you to agree or not to agree.

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

@@Ravencroft81 if you’re going to adopt every opinion that is explained and justified with data, you shouldn’t bet on individual stocks

@SigFigNewton Ай бұрын

@@Ravencroft81 I’ll only buy a specific company if I understand clearly-intelligent arguments against buying it