The pure honesty is why we chose core team as our agents. Thank you for the clear and unbiased advice.

Wish I was in the market, you explain everything in a way that’s easy to understand.

🙂Excellent analysis Derek. I have been in the real estate game for 40 years...from LA to Hawaii to Arizona. I have seen every market and own In Kailua and in Hilo. Bought in 2000 for $367K now it is worth $1.75M in Kailua. I started following RE in Hawaii in 1980 when it went from $125K to over $350K and I thought I would never be able to buy. 20 years later California was heating up so I knew it would hit Oahu within months, so I flew over and bought before most people could see what was coming. Rates were crashing, that is the signal. I had been following Hawaii since 1998 when the tech guys started buying in Kauai, then Maui in 1999, then Oahu in 2000. Hawaii then got hot as the rates kept falling. In 2020, March, covid hit and the rates crashed to 2.5%, and I refi'ed several properties asap. The real estate game for investors as I play it is as follows: buy when the rates are the highest (18%, in the late 80's), when the market is dead. That way you get the lowest price possible. Then refi once or twice as they go down. That way you capture the lowest mtg payment possible as well. You have just hit a home run in real estate!! Most recessions last 1.5 years, 2 at most. This recessions we are going in now is due to several reasons that I won't go into here, just know that Hawaii will see a recession, which for you may not be too severe because the location relative to the mainland's problems: remote work, retirements, safety, etc. Listings will increase over the next year in Hawaii, which is needed. Buyers should focus and be aware of all that you mention in the above video. Be cautious by putting more down to lower your costs, and people buy on monthly payments, not on price! Then refi down once things around the world calm down again, which may take awhile. The rental market is tight, so you can always rent if you need to.

Another great video. I appreciate the no BS info. Keep the videos coming.

Bought my place in Ewa in 1993 with an 5.5% APR. Cap was at 5% with an annual 1% =/- cap. Most I paid was around 7% after which it had declined since I paid off the loan at 2.15% I've been told that I was nuts to refinance in the past. I think I did OK.

I like the one-take format, Derek! And yep, we’re not going to see real estate get as bad as 2008. For those of us who’ve been around long enough, there’s no way it’ll get as bad as 1991-2000. Instead the rising mortgage interest rates mean that the Oahu real estate market will lurch sideways for a few years, with pockets of value for some buyers and pockets of appreciation for some sellers.

I am a huge fan of your videos!! Seriously binge watching ☺️ Excellent video! Mahalo ! 💗

I think the definition of a “market crash” is very subjective. But I notice DOM and inventories are up substantially higher in Kakaako, Ala Moana area especially new condos. Open houses are now everywhere indicating that inventories are not moving. I also think many cash buyers' source of funds were coming from home equity and cash-out refi which hit a dead stop with a 5% interest rate and climbing.

I loved this format, btw! Felt like I was having a convo with you, and being able to listen to the natural ebb and flow of your thoughts allowed conversation to be fleshed out without editing.

I'm moving to Hawaii likely later this Fall or early next year. Looking to purchase (especially if prices fall by then) and know nothing about the areas, the different options available, etc. This video was SUPER helpful in getting some basic understanding and foresight. You should do more like this one.

Great video... Fair, balanced, great insights into the market, laid out the pros and cons so that buyers can make an informed decision. 🤙

It will only crash if the inventory balloons. In markets with lots of ARM loans may be in trouble. Markets with conventional loans should be ok.

I think crash is not what people think. Prices will be stable and homes take longer to sell. Not a big deal

Looks good!! Great, honest info.

You have to take the word of "the experts" you see on news shows with a great amount of skepticism. Those who go on news programs exaggerate for ratings points. They are like the weather Channel guy pretending to be blown around in a storm while an old couple leisurely stroll by behind him. Always take your time to make large financial decisions. Ask any questions you have and go online and do your own research. You may decide to buy but scale down what you are looking at, or decide you covered your bases and take the plunge. Just rely on your own common sense.

Also curious: you referenced several economists. Do you have an econ background? Do you have a connection with the UH Economist you referenced?

As of today 9/14/22 mortgage rates are over 6.5% for a 30 year fixed with 20% down payment and a credit score of 800 or above. Wait until the fed hikes rates another 3/4% next week. Inventory is going up rapidly, April 2022 had 2337 houses on the market August 2022 had 3201 houses on the market. The country is heading into a recession, mortgage rates have increased massively and are continuing to rise, inventory is up, mortgage demand is down at least 50%. In Hawaii, the real estate industry is the biggest industry with over 20% of the population employed. The second biggest industry is government with over 19% of the population employed. I would say there is a 100% chance that the Hawaii real estate market will drop at least 30% if not much more.

You are 100% correct. It all depends on the money printing. Will blackrock and friends keep buying up inventory? This time is different. Lots of cash buyers. It is going to be interesting.

Really like your style and your honest evaluation. Peace

Like your style bro. Looking to move back after many years away and have subscribed to get more info from you.

Thank you again for being genuine and keeping it real and the Honesty in your videos is appreciated always.

Preciate you Derek. Bought in Mauka but still feel very good about the investment. Came here as a military spouse with a full-time job in tech so its nice to hear it from your side of real estate expertise. I think we'll be okay holding out for a few years if there is any sort of crash but its great to hear you put out that perspective.

There are more things to consider, If you bought a 2 bedroom townhouse 2 years ago with 3% interest, and you had another kid now you looking for a 3B house, but the interest is at 5.25 or 5.5 and gong up, if you want to sell you will have to pay more for the financing so why not just stay if possible at your current home and ride the storm...also you really can not Re Finance anything now cause interest is going up not down..

I'M 70 YEARS OLD. BORN AND RAISED IN KANEOHE. WE HAD A FEE SIMPLE HOUSE, 2 BDR 1 BATH HOUSE. IN 1962, WE BOUGHT A LEASEHOLD HOUSE ACROSS TOWN. OUR 2 BDR HOUSE SOLD FOR $23,000. IN 1986, WENT BACK TO MY OLD B NEIGHBORHOOD. HAD DINNER WITH ONE OF MY OLD NEIGHBORS. HE TOLD ME OUR OLD 2BR HOUSE WAS WORTH $250 000!!!

1:51 We do know the govt is NOT going to do any more quantitative easing. They are stopping buying mortgage backed securities and they are selling off at least a third of the record number they are holding. The Fed is doing QT, Quantitative Tightening. We do know for sure because Jay Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, has said so. The increase in the Fed funds rate has been known for months and was raised 50 basis points with announced increases (50 bp) next month, the following month , August off and another in September. So we DO know where interest rates are going. This clearly reduces the buyer pool due to higher interest rates. This is what the interest rate tool is designed to do; to destroy demand in order to cool price increases and bring down inflation. 2:49 Hawaii and Seattle are vastly different markets so how can you vacillate about whether or not they experience the slow down (or not) in Seattle and say it is the same in Hawaii? The slowing of real estate means that the dogs are going to sit unsold whereas they would have been gone immediately last year (no argument there) but the pretty properties will still have multiple offers and over bids. Wait until this fall when rates are more back toward historic Hawaiian interest rate levels. According to Locations in Honolulu "Looking at median prices and interest rates since 1977, interest rates have had no effect on Oahu home prices. During the three previous "price runs" on Oahu in the last 35 years, (a price run is when properties appreciate at 15-20% or more per year) interest rates were anywhere between 8% and 16%. Regardless of how high or low rates got, it didn’t influence overall median prices." However if you are not a cash buyer the price of the house you can afford will decrease. I can't watch more, sorry... unless this conversation is over a few beers.

HI, Derek On your last Video the one thing not to move to Hawaii is the drinking water. Is that still the case?

well here it is September and it's just about over.

My guess is we give up the last 2 years of appreciation and it starts to grind higher at a slower rate of appreciation, probably plays out over 5 year period.

Yea this makets still nuts in some places. Just lost my ass on a Hawaii Kai place. I went way over and very high cap. Person got it for over 200k asking. I do fully expect prices to fall or at least go near asking. So I hope lol. Inflation/ interest rates/ retirement dropping

we are in a terrible market and prices have to come down, or else.

I think the biggest issues are, China is still shut down. In a few months, we are going to have major supply shortage issues. We have Leadership in this country that is brain dead. It is very much possible that we see $7 gasoline and $9 diesel. Electricity costs are going much higher. Inflation is not going away. Higher rates will not fix supply chain issues. The big island must import everything. This is a huge tax on people. Those on fixed income and have to make mortgage payments are going to be effected. We are in a time that is totally different then anything we have ever had in modern times, where the only thing that keeps the USA moving forward economically is printing money and sending it to Wall Street and the War Machine. If this is cut off, there will be a crash. The question is, will the money printing be cut off? My bet is no, this is no Paul Volcker. We are over 30 trillion in debt, inflation reduces debt, and kills savers. On any pullback, they will start the printing again. Just like Japan has done.

My son is Hawaii born and I want to be near my son. Hawaii is home.

And 2 weeks later, here we are at 5.125%

If you are buying right now you fall into one of 2 categories. Money is no obeject or you are a fool.

you are months behind inflation and housing prices, it's slowing down big time.

I'm no expert and can't say I know with 100% certainty what will happen in the real estate market, but in my experience, if you can tread water at the worst times you may be able to experience the value appreciation at the end. We purchase our California (first and current) home in the early 90's just after the dot com bust. The market continued to fall for about a year afterwards and we questioned our timing and our investment. It has become one of our best investments. Granted we were lucky in that we were close to the market turning and financing was very easy (at the time I think we had a 8% rate) but even if it took 4 or 5 years to turn, because we were occupants and not flippers we could have rode out the market.

Don't move to Hawaii. It's wayyyyy too expensive.