Market Cycles Report: Oct 10, 2022 - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models

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Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC)

Жыл бұрын

► Cycles of Financial Crisis - Can static long-term cycle models give a clue for possible bottom?
Current dynamic cycles have shown a significant top at the end of 2021 and are now in force. When analyzing Financial Stress, VIX and Stock Market Cycles, episodes of Market Cycles Report in the last four weeks confirmed that more trouble might be ahead for the stock market.
This session will set the current analysis of Dynamic Cycles in the context of long-term static cycle projections.
Long-term static cycles from JM Funk (1932) and Benner (1875) lead to a key year 2023.
* 56/9 years cycle grid (JM Funk)
* Benner cycles (54 years)
► More from Lars: cycles.org/lars
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Пікірлер: 30

@FSCtv 8 ай бұрын

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@luf31 Жыл бұрын

Insane, unbelievable, almost prophecy. Like DVortex, i would also be interested in a second part.

@drwinklepecker9298 Жыл бұрын

"History repeats because Human Nature does not change" W.D Gann. The best Gann trader I knew told me in 2009 (after having sold at the top in 2007), that he was staying out of the stock market until March 2012. I wondered how he knew and so I was determined to find the answer - which led me to the Tritch (Node) Cycle. It was the one secret he never shared.

@brex3290 Жыл бұрын

Hi! Iam also interested in Gann's theory. I've read Plummer's work. What would you recommend to be updated on Gann's approach on current markets situation?

@eduard-alexandrulomanar3065 Жыл бұрын

First time seeing someone talking about Benner Cycle besides TRi (The Rational Investor) 🤩

@panoramahaususedom Жыл бұрын

Hello Lars, thank you very much for this excellent information on static cycles. It is almost fascinating how the different models converge. Thank you for the time and information you provide, I think the topic is really exceptionally interesting. Best regards, Daniel

@xopcapital9986 Жыл бұрын

Beautiful synchronicity. Like clockwork!

@Austin-Danger-Powers Жыл бұрын

Glad I found you by Markus Koch 🙌

@sallyfranks6102 Жыл бұрын

Fantastic, thank you Lars

@johngoldsworthy1925 Жыл бұрын

Just watched the video. Thanks very much for the intriguing food for thought. They talk about events happening when the stars are in alignment. Well, it's not stars but something is certainly lining up and it could be big.

@kachelgott9023 Жыл бұрын

Thank you Lars! This is very Interesting

@frank7539 Жыл бұрын

Vielen Dank!

@DivineVortex Жыл бұрын

simply fascinating. please do a part 2. maybe talking about if there is a way to see cycles within cycles, aka cycles within the 2022-2023 expected lows....

@FSCtv Жыл бұрын

Good idea about a part 2. Let me think about it.

@harrybach8412 9 ай бұрын

Excellent. Thank you.

@ManasR Жыл бұрын

Thank you 🙏 appreciate it!

@varun6083 Жыл бұрын

Very good Content. Thanks

@bssb936 Жыл бұрын

Excellent thanks 😊

@user-fn2oy1rq5p Жыл бұрын

9/56 cycle points to a low 2023 and 2025, but 18year real estate cycle + Ganns timetable to a major low in 2026. I suspect they all point to the same cycle (18.6 lunar nodal cycle which also influences tides and floods on earth), since 18 years consists of two 9 year cycles and 56 of three 18year cycles. And the 18year cycle is indeed divided in two cycles. In the first 7-9 years, the problems of the previous one are solved, so financial society focuses on innovation & tech. The second cycle part is driven by credit speculation as speculators made good money in the first half and politicians & bankers want to keep the ball rolling. Hence, value stocks outperform. Then, after 18 years, deflationary crash (1955, 1973, 1990, 2008, 2026 etc.). Sometimes, as in 1955 this only turns out via a prolonged sideways phase in the stock market while the index absorbs the shock over time and changes its constituents. If they are indeed the same cycle, 2026-2027 should indeed be the better year for a crash, because Gann's earlier timetable also showed 2023-2025 as crash year but since the cycle it not exactly full years, it needs to be adjusted. The updated version can be found easily on the internet

@FSCtv Жыл бұрын

static cycle projections always needs to be taken with a piece of salt. The intention was to bring this static models back to the table for discussion. There is a lot of additional research available surrounding these models. Especially cycles which are in harmonic relatoin to lunisolar cycles. But all the deviations and pros/cons would be out of scope for a short cycles tv episode. So yes, I think you are on the right track to bring different models into discussion. Thank you for bringing up your view, Thats very important.

@user-fn2oy1rq5p Жыл бұрын

Actually, after looking up the paper, the complete 9/56 grid lists 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 etc. as potential panic years, so basically every year besides the 9-year sequence of 2013 and 2022. Not helpful

@Tolstoievsky Жыл бұрын

this is getting dangerously close to astrology :))

@amarsinghhembram4379 Жыл бұрын

Subscribed 👍

@juistindavis6736 Жыл бұрын

Thanks Lars and FSC, any interest in Asian cycles research?

@conormcg8702 Жыл бұрын

Lars, absolutely fascinating cycles once again. But I'm hoping you can help me, the Benner cycle shows 2005 + 2012 as "C" years or Hard times or Accumulation times..... looking on the charts of 2005 + 2012 they were stable years and once it broke higher then powerful up cycles started.... 2023 could be just an accumulation year with no crash? 2026 worries me a lot more!

@FSCtv Жыл бұрын

Hi Connor, the Benner Cycle is often refered and discussed to be our of sync since ~1940. These static cycle models should never be the primary source - dynamic models are much more accurate these time. They just had that knowledge and computer power 100years ago to apply it. I use these long-term models as secondary research ressources. Because if dynamic models fall into long-term static models - then cycles-within-cycles alignments of different models are often the most powerfull situations to look for.

@quietlike 3 ай бұрын

But that first double chart thing includes 2023,2024,2025 and 2026

@FABIODECASTRO-ek5te 2 ай бұрын

Like most of all predictions for disasters... 2023 was not the one... on the contrary... one of the best years for the stock markets and overall US economy.