Oil Stocks (XOM Example Analysis) For 2024

Рет қаралды 22,729

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

Here is what you need to know before investing in oil stocks for 2024.
0:00 XOM is A BUY
2:08 Business Developments
5:11 Financials
6:02 Oil Sector
11:06 XOM Stock Valuation
13:06 Investing
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
sven-carlin-research-platform...
Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform...
I am also a book author:
Modern Value Investing book:
amzn.to/2lvfH3t
The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
SeekingAlpha Offer: seekingalpha.me/SvenCarlin
I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
www.interactivebrokers.ie/mkt...

Пікірлер: 119

@stefanosebastiano 4 ай бұрын

For now, the best 2024 video. Thanks Sven

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

grazie!

@herokorai8346 4 ай бұрын

Well researched! I prefer this type of videos - thank you!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

More to come!

@Pizza-gb1ch 4 ай бұрын

Ditto.

@georgegogolan8472 4 ай бұрын

Great value as always Sven!

@vegas_vince1238 4 ай бұрын

solid advice. thank you!

@spotsonadog 4 ай бұрын

A lot of good information to consider ! I think I better watch this at least 2 more times :) thank you!!

@motom742 4 ай бұрын

Great Video, thank you Sven.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Many thanks!

@stephensharkey5517 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for a great video Sven. I enjoy your videos on commodities and regard them as wisdom in a sea of noise. You don't claim credit in hindsight and you video on Oct 2020 - 'BUY Oil Stocks At Historical Lows - Investing Analysis' shows you are the genuine article. You undertand the cycles and made a very rare video on youtube of telling people about a bargain BEFORE it occurs.

@ivanhorvat7269 4 ай бұрын

Totally agree. I dca-ed exxon during 2020 and 2021. I was just starting my investing journey and didn't know anything about investing. But i knew oil was ridiculously cheap. So i put all of my extra money into exxon during that period. Now I'm just holding, collecting the dividend and waiting for prices to fall again.

@goodj111 4 ай бұрын

Wow, must be a lot of unrealized gains then

@Concojone5 4 ай бұрын

Great, great, great message!

@Concojone5 4 ай бұрын

Buffett has bought a major stake in OXY though, so to him it's an above-average investment. Where do you think your opinion differs from Buffett's?

@henry23223 4 ай бұрын

great video, 100% agree and thanks for producing such high quality analysis!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Much appreciated!

@vladimirstadnyk3373 4 ай бұрын

❤TOP research, Sven ! 😊😊😊 Best KZfaqr , keep up great work!

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Wow, thanks!

@user-jc1yx9of9p 4 ай бұрын

Very good video!!

@apc9714 4 ай бұрын

Nice video as always Sven. Really appreciated your perspective and I fully agree. I think the "oil to 100 because inflation" is weird, since inflation hits the cost aswell, like in 1973 oil was 5$ a barrel and it was considered crazy high. It putting the carrige before the horse. High oil prices, bring inflation and money for big oil, not the other way around. US companies are lowering their cost compared to the others (because shale). I think owning oil can be good to offset geopolitical risk and get some cash flow, but a pure value investor can do better right now. Same for Chevron

@billted3323 4 ай бұрын

offseting risk and cash flow is all i need.

@dragopetrov4555 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for the great video Sven! Interesting as always! In your opinion why some companies do buybacks when the price is high as in this case? Is it on purpose ?

@bakanekore 4 ай бұрын

Very nice video, would you say the same for ENI to avoid dollar risk?

@simpelmind1428 3 ай бұрын

Thanks

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

:-*

@jawbfl 4 ай бұрын

Great analysis, what's your take on CREI recent drop?

@MAchannel2024 4 ай бұрын

Excellent analysis as always. I somewhat learned not to invest in individual oil stocks when I bought BP and they had a major spill in the gulf of Mexico. The stock did not do anything for almost a decade. I have done really well owning XLE and VDE. Both with dividends and $ cost averaging, are up 100% in past 5 years. When you buy a mix, if one of them fails, it won't be my case like BP. I say somewhat, because I do own EPD. I don't see them as volatile since they are a toll road for these major oils and price of oil does not really impact them. They have a healthy dividend, but then you get K-1 at the end of the year, which can be tricky on what type of account you own it in the US. TY

@johnristheanswer 4 ай бұрын

Agreed. I think we'll need oil for a while yet.......

@jsedge2473 4 ай бұрын

We’ll need oil forever. Well, as long as any sort of modern society exists.

@stoched2traden.720 4 ай бұрын

Thank you Sven- I have gotten a lot out of your videos over the past couple of years. What do you think of CQQQ and FXI? I have started a position in both just based on how low those ETFs have gone lately. I will wait until oil goes down or recession officially hits. Thanks again!

@kerschefreestyle 4 ай бұрын

Tangible Book Value is the way to go!

@thomas_pihl 4 ай бұрын

How do you see ENI the italian oil company with forward PE of 6 and 6 % div?

@TheScaryGermanGuy 4 ай бұрын

14:00 The stock goes down because earnings decline. As earnings decline there is less/no money to do buybacks. What you would have to do as a CFO is retain earnings in good times and use that cash to do the buy back in bad times. That should actually be a no-brainer for cyclical companies. But for some reason common sense doesn't seem to be that common.

@Harry_S._ 4 ай бұрын

Oil is and will remain a neccessity in many, many crucial things. Even if everybody including Africans starts driving EVs tomorrow, we will still needs tons and tons of oil for flying, manufacturing, medicine, rocket fuel, ship fuel and many many other things. The oil you use for driving is just the tiny tip of the iceberg of oil demand.

@wealthydetective1619 4 ай бұрын

I agree on several points you made, but why do you think Buffett keeps buying OXY if “this” (meaning the sector) is just a “hold”? Maybe he sees something on the geopolitical front or the supply/demand (low investments for the past 10 years) that others are not seeing?

@kraz007 4 ай бұрын

XOM is an analyst favorite for oil...

@felixfelix4218 3 ай бұрын

The green transition is just hanky panky.😂 this made my day. I buy somw chevron😎

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

:-)))

@isildur1702 4 ай бұрын

Thanks Sven fo a video! Can you make a similar one about natural gas?

@diegoscur7311 4 ай бұрын

Which software do you use to compare the buybacks and the price of shares?

@MarquisDM666 4 ай бұрын

When will be the best time to invest in the green transition? Etf funds like PBW / ICLN?

@davidcunningham2074 4 ай бұрын

glad sven is positive about oil. i have bought a lot of oil stocks. they are very cheap.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

I would say more neutral at these levels

@ChrisE1415 4 ай бұрын

Buffett has been buying Occidental, last period. Do you think he's wrong?

@jrb1345 4 ай бұрын

Sven what do you think about STR - Sitio Royalties?

@mbg9650 4 ай бұрын

Sell your oil stocks when they increase their buybacks.

@elreyAlito 4 ай бұрын

Why is that? Isn't it good for the company and investors if they buy back their stocks?

@cris471 4 ай бұрын

Utter nonsense

@Broteese 4 ай бұрын

⁠usually buy backs are at the highest levels when oil is most expensive. Thats when you sell cyclical stocks :)

@GoredrinkerRS 3 ай бұрын

Is this financial advice?

@danienishanov738 4 ай бұрын

Such a great vid!

@ukraineboy21 4 ай бұрын

Hi What you think about NEE?

@matteoperini19 4 ай бұрын

Question about buybacks: As value investors, should we be worried if a company we own does buybacks at a “too-high” price? We can just sell some shares to offset the effect. Or do I miss something? (Further, if we own it, we think it’s probably at a reasonable price!)

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

that is the eternal question with buybacks! Owning it is one, buying more is another - XOM has a history of destroying shareholder value with buybacks because they are a cyclical. More about buybacks: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/mbWjoK6Wx72whH0.html

@jmc8076 3 ай бұрын

Big oil invested (and still needed) in alt for future. They’re smart and hedge bets.

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@lorellaldos5263 4 ай бұрын

Sven I would recommend to you to read the OPEC oil report, because you have your numbers wrong. Oil consumption 2023 was already at 102.1 million barrels per day. For 2025 OPEC projects 106.2 million barrels per day. It is essential in investing to read and get the numbers right.

@Concojone5 4 ай бұрын

You're missing the point.

@Dividend_Info 4 ай бұрын

XOM is the best energy stock. Hold forever

@ADWELDO 3 ай бұрын

Do you not think BP is more undervalued at the moment? It would be great if you did a deep dive on this stock !

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

I think oil stocks are fairly priced now, so we will wait for mispricings

@ThePranksterpj 4 ай бұрын

Hi Sven, are you going to make any videos on Canadian businesses?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

when the Canadian economy is in trouble, you lose your job and there is a real estate crisis.... so hopefully never...

@alegz87able 4 ай бұрын

In addition, have to consider that one of the biggest fuel oil consumers are the shipping companies which are also aiming to net zero emissions by 2050. Container shipping companies such as Maersk and CMA CGM are already heavily invested in alternative fuels such as LNG / biofuels.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

slowly but surely things are moving

@alegz87able 4 ай бұрын

Staying on the same subject, the current disruption in Red Sea will lead to a higher demand as all the transits from/to Asia/Europe/US E coast are re-routed through S Africa. This deviation leads to considerable higher fuel consumption/demand.

@uncomplicatedi 3 ай бұрын

IEA has been consistently under estimating the explosive growth in net zero cost energies (renewables) and I don't think has properly modeled fossil fuel demand decline in China. Will that disruption spread to other areas?

@zacharymarkovych8326 4 ай бұрын

NFE is an interesting energy play for the green transition near $30 - it’s LNG not oil tho. Selling nat gas to emerging mkts burns cleaner than coal/oil. NFE makes a spread between cheap U.S. gas and expensive energy prices in Caribbean/South America. EBITDA should be about 1/3 of the market cap in 2 years, as contracted projects are coming online. Founded by private equity billionaire Wes Edens - owns like 26% of the shares

@dariocasabella2744 4 ай бұрын

Can you pls cover EVVTY stock? They have impressive margin and growth

@dariocasabella2744 4 ай бұрын

Also a good dividend end low debt. I cannot see the risk there, but it must be some risk. Can you please point out their risk?

@williamhanlon9479 4 ай бұрын

Are you concerned about the divergence in GDI and GDP? Do you care much about recession indicators or do you completely disregard timing the market?

@Ironmanalby 3 ай бұрын

Ciao Sven ,can you do the same analysys on consol energy,with Natural gas low and buyback and dividend haig(plus einhorn Is insider)?thanks

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

thanks for suggesting

@user-ev1yv7qz4q 3 ай бұрын

If you search 2009-2014, you change your mind. Now is the time to collect them.

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing, interesting perspective

@yanivpete 4 ай бұрын

Do major oil companies hedge a % of their future oil sales to help smooth out the volatility in oil prices?

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

Nope

@darin7369 4 ай бұрын

If oil prices drop to $40 again I will load the boat because average production cost now is closer to $60. Whenever the price of a commodity drops below the average cost of production you know that higher cost producers will have to shut down and a shortage will develop.

@huinyavaina 4 ай бұрын

Just chimed in to say I'm still holding the bag of BABA, since it was a "great company" to own, even at $200 / share, right? The research looked promising and the valuation was so good

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

It is a good bag

@jsedge2473 4 ай бұрын

That’s the game you play with Chinese stocks in general…

@Unlted_States_of_Amerlca_ 4 ай бұрын

May I ask, how much will this cost?

@Unlted_States_of_Amerlca_ 4 ай бұрын

When I say, I don't want to spend a lot.

@elrevesyelderecho 4 ай бұрын

9:40 So prices will go down unless there is war in the middle east. Something that we can argue Iran would keep pushing up.

@roberttaylor3594 4 ай бұрын

my advice is to buy low, sell high. Not vice versa; I tried that and it doesn't work.

@tsonez 4 ай бұрын

The oil sector has such a large interest by states that the businesses cannot operate optimally. The market is distorted. This is a major negative factor for investing in oil.

@tsonez 4 ай бұрын

It may be better to own a business that is socially and politically uninteresting or unimportant. Or a business that is too hard, complicated or fast-moving to control in practice. Because, freedom to operate without external constaints is the dream of capitalists. No external control allows merging businesses and cornering markets, which leads to maximal return to owners' capital (at the expense of the customers').

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@Lifelessontowiseman 4 ай бұрын

I invested 8 grand into oxycidental. For long investment

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@EDH784 4 ай бұрын

Analysis totally skewed because you rely on IEA’s crazy projections and net-zero lunacy.

@MrMonrod 4 ай бұрын

I’ve been watching all of your recent videos and at the same time you say we can’t time the market and it’s better to be invested etc, every company you evaluate is not a buy. Even the ones that you say are good, at the end of the video they’re not good enough/are too expensive. How can one be invested and not seated in a pile of cash if at the same time NOTHING is a buy? I don’t mean to criticize but it’s contradictory

@cris471 4 ай бұрын

With Trump in the WH, oil companies will have a ball !!

@methosb 4 ай бұрын

HKEX oil stocks can be good when the cycle is low because they have around 8-10% div.

@davidkoba 4 ай бұрын

I don’t like oil but if I did buy one it would be oxy.

@mrmurky1118 3 ай бұрын

I understand what you’re saying but your model isn’t adjusting for inflation.

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

good point, but supply and demand is more important for good entry points

@wjggmt1180 4 ай бұрын

Its Borat's better looking brother!

@jackgoldman1 4 ай бұрын

I don't want oil stocks. I want oil.

@Value-Investing 4 ай бұрын

:-)

@user-rt6zc2pi6y 2 ай бұрын

How are we supposed to trust a compnanys management with our money when they don t even ''know'' when to buyback their own shares !!

@potomac5466 4 ай бұрын

2010's was not that good decade for oil, i think 2020's will be a lot better. There is no shale revolution now and capex spending was missing in the 2010's. Just think what will happen to e.g. russian production couple of years from now. Exxon likely isnt a good investment at these levels, i think you are right. There are many cheaper ones though that may be?