"Perfectly Timed" Rains: Above-Trend Corn and Soybean Yields??

Рет қаралды 7,554

Күн бұрын

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0:00 Soybean Selloff
2:41 Perfectly Timed Rains
6:01 India/Russia
7:12 Crude Oil
8:23 Rate Cuts Ahead
🌾📉 Agricultural and Economic Update: Soybean Prices, Weather Impact, and Global Trade Dynamics 🌦️🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we delve into significant developments impacting agricultural markets, global trade, and economic conditions. Let's unpack the recent trends and events:
Soybean Market Dynamics
Soybean futures hit a new low with the November 2024 contract dropping to $10.80 per bushel, the lowest since Q3 2021. This significant decline is driven by a sharp decrease in soybean oil values and a modest drop in meal prices, signaling a potential easing in the US soybean supply-demand balance. Current market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a strong national yield, while concerns about weak export sales-currently at a 20-year low-add to the bearish outlook.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl brought substantial rainfall across the central United States, particularly benefiting Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky within the Corn Belt. As the system continues to move, the forecast suggests a return to drier conditions, with fluctuating temperatures over the next two weeks. These weather patterns are crucial as they directly influence crop conditions and development.
Indian Imports of Russian Agricultural Products
India has significantly increased its imports of Russian agricultural products, with a notable uptick in grains like peas and lentils. This shift has contributed to Russia's 21% increase in grain and grain product exports this season. Such dynamics are reshaping global trade patterns, particularly under the current geopolitical climate.
Oil Market Fluctuations
Oil prices saw a decrease of more than 1% due to Hurricane Beryl causing less damage than expected, alleviating concerns about potential supply disruptions. Additional factors influencing oil prices include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on economic slowdown and the labor market, alongside speculative ceasefire talks in Gaza.
US Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve's Stance
The potential slowdown in the US jobs market poses significant risks to economic stability, challenging the Federal Reserve's policy approach. Powell's recent comments underscore the delicate balance the Fed must manage between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, without providing a specific timeline for potential rate cuts.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more insights into these issues affecting agriculture, global trade, and economic policies, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide in-depth analysis to help you navigate the complexities of these interrelated sectors.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think the current soybean price trends will affect the agricultural sector? What are your views on the global impact of shifts in trade patterns? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your feedback is invaluable as we explore these evolving challenges and opportunities.

Пікірлер: 58

@steve60ism 17 күн бұрын

I remember 2010 the USDA and the trade predicted a large corn crop. corn dropped below 3 and by the next spring corn gained 3 dollars.

@Luke-br1hr 17 күн бұрын

Rain makes grain so the futures get absolutely beat down, but local basis doesn't care about drought. Wonderful

@thomaspaulson579 17 күн бұрын

That’s because it isn’t about weather, SD, stocks, etc… the physical position is being taken advantage of.

@Maynardmatt 17 күн бұрын

Shameless Joe plug here… The Farmers vs Funds video really brings the amount of market share each group holds into perspective! Thanks for the insight.

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 17 күн бұрын

Thank you. This channel is all about shameless plugs. Lol.

@uhohspagettioh97531 17 күн бұрын

So let's say this downtrend continues to low $3 sub $3. There's going to be a huge market correction on inputs, machinery, and land. A large % of farmers who are not running a tight ship well get a banker cannon ball to the hull.

@scottdougherty4251 16 күн бұрын

no matter how tight a ship someone has. no one can survive $3 corn

@uhohspagettioh97531 12 күн бұрын

@@scottdougherty4251 not true. With a normal yield our break even is sub $3 farm just under 1k acres

@scottdougherty4251 12 күн бұрын

@@uhohspagettioh97531 i don't believe you. how much are your inputs per acre?

@joshcourrier3451 17 күн бұрын

i think the downside targets are $3.00 corn and $8.00 soybeans. if i was a buyer that's where my wishing orders would be.

@ryanmarkey5012 17 күн бұрын

I wonder if China would buy at that price?

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

@@ryanmarkey5012 I hope not.

@jamesmcclanahan4091 17 күн бұрын

Southern Ohio didn't get any rain

@anabolicamaranth7140 17 күн бұрын

It sounds dry for us for the next 10 days.

@LtColDaddy71 17 күн бұрын

Supply and demand. The farmer is forced in to a disadvantage though. Every little tid bit of information is out in the open to be analyzed so that a strategy can be formed basically against the farmer, versus if we didn’t share so much information, held our cards close to the chest, we would fare better. But, an open trade and free flow of information allows farmers to hedge by attracting investment. I’m guessing quite a few built a hedge position on 1/2 of their estimated crop, or have a contract that locked them in at over the cost of production. You’ll never get investors to engage without a ton of data. You need those investors if you’re operating under the protection of a hedge.

@kevinclark9297 17 күн бұрын

I’m old enough to remember the 1980’s train wreck. This looks really familiar.

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

@@kevinclark9297 So Biden blocked u from buying put options??

@robburkett1671 17 күн бұрын

2" rain in n.w.Ohio,way to wet this spring and summer 32" since April 1.

@rollincoal7768 17 күн бұрын

I'm central Ohio. We are very similar as you. Narrowly got wheat out but still have almost all the straw to bale. Hardest year I've ever been through and can remember. (I'm 46)

@ryanmarkey5012 17 күн бұрын

We got .25 here in sothwest ohio. The real rain stayed west around state line. 40 mph winds do more harm than rain so far will help. Currently moving old crop beans as fast as i can. I have heard alot of people say markets move up in an election year.....if it does then i will sell new crop. I am convinced this market is just going to keep sliding into fall.

@craigjones2174 17 күн бұрын

In my part of NW Iowa, I've had 24 inches since April 25.

@debi5292 17 күн бұрын

USDA is not guilty of underestimating crop yields ever. LMAO Joe is correct in the lack of export sales. Other industries have discovered rationing supplies to raise market prices. But not production agriculture. The only way we cut back it to cut our own throats. 2025 crop input decisions will be painful. Might be time to think outside the box. Skip or half the dry fert. Maybe by another 16-row cultivator and skip post immerge. Being creative and unconventional might be key to loosing less or breaking even. Profit? only if USDA is proven wrong post-harvest in January.

@outlander330cc 17 күн бұрын

Look into regenerative ag. It's outside the box. Start listening to John Kempf and try some AEA products. This is my first year working with them and it's looking pretty good. They focus on managing everything as an ecosystem instead of killing everything. Input costs go way down and yields go up. Other people to look into are Rick Clark and Jay Young, there are many more but those are my favorites who I've learned a lot from. Good luck!

@thomaslthomas1506 17 күн бұрын

I wouldn't let the USSDA or NOA change the windshield wiper fluid in my car......

@FarmJim1885 17 күн бұрын

Wow good to know the crops are made and nearly in bin I can cancel my fungicide application and don’t have to irrigate anymore that should save me about $75 an acre and with the record crop coming might still break even. If I could only cancel my crop insurance that I guess I won’t need could save even more. I guess the USDA has more power than God, if they forecast record crops they make it happen.😂😂

@don66hotrod94 17 күн бұрын

Looks like we need an early frost, like in 1974, to stimulate this market. I remember waking up to black fields that were soon smelling of death.

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

@@don66hotrod94 is that your marketing plan? Buy put options.

@alexmikhael5061 16 күн бұрын

NATHAN BAKER at BORDER VIEW FARMS just got his 360RAIN into the field this season... WOW WAT A DIFFERENCE IN HIS CORN THIS YEAR!!! his irragated field corn with hose and travellersquirtgunythingie won him a trip to the commidity classic not this last one but the one before... this year his corn in the irrigated field is AAWEWSOME !!! way awesome! where the 360RAIN is not goin in the field the 4 back rows or wutever, the corn was rolled up the other day, and where the MACHINE GOES it's over 6.6 feet tall and he has been able to pump on some extra fertz too!! soooo lookin forward to his results come harvest... HAVE AN AWESOME HARVEST EVER ONE!!! I HOPE YOU GOT EVETTHYING IN TO THE FIELDS BEFORE THE WEATHER! and may you get it out before the weather too!! :)

@alexmikhael5061 16 күн бұрын

but his not irragated fields are not as green and tall and bushy and ;)

@curtisbrendemuhl-qs4su 17 күн бұрын

Crops are quite a bit behind normal maturity wise, going to need plenty of heat to catch up so crop makes it. Red River Valley of the north..

@davehughesfarm7983 17 күн бұрын

A lot of guys are still stored up..I think they just wanted 4.50 corn and 11.75 cash beans...But its looking kinda ugly..

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 17 күн бұрын

Good morning! Are the "above-trend yield" people right or wrong??

@kansaskristi 17 күн бұрын

Wrong

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

@@kansaskristiBs, I'm protected with Put Options.

@wadepregitzer2532 17 күн бұрын

Wrong, yield maybe large but acres reduced,from water, hail, drought. So average,but USDA won't figure it out till this time next year.

@billgallagher2797 17 күн бұрын

5” rain in the past week here, corn is set up well, another couple rains before Labor Day and same can be said for the bean crop.

@BillGraff 17 күн бұрын

1.2 to 2.3 inches last 72 hours, we are in better shape than last year, which was about 85% of APH. Still have a way to go but we will have a corn crop. August will determine how big, and for soybeans we look good now but we still need a good August. So far so good is my description.

@JustinBarkman 17 күн бұрын

No rain in south cental pa very poor corn soybeans still have a chance. No rain in sight highs in the 90s. I dont think there is any chance of corn being shelled. Some can be chopped but it would be poor quality feed better than snowballs i guess

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

Put options sure are paying off.

@anabolicamaranth7140 17 күн бұрын

Midwest heat decreased considerably after the coal plants started going into service. KC for example 13 days of 105F from 1940- 1959 but only 7 days of 105F from 2004-2023. This in spite of the overall summer temperature being warmer the last 20 years. Same concept applies to Pittsburgh PA, Charleston WV…Notice we set very few summer records compared to low sulfate locations like Miami, Seattle, Boise, Paris France, Athens Greece, São Paulo Brazil. These places have few coal plants and much lower sulfate levels than most of eastern US.

@ryanmarkey5012 17 күн бұрын

I wonder how the cancer rates compare across those environments and geographies. We miss the sulfur but I don't miss everything else.

@anabolicamaranth7140 17 күн бұрын

@@ryanmarkey5012 They are quite high here in the Ohio Valley. People are in dismal health for the most part.

@ryanmarkey5012 17 күн бұрын

I understand completely I'm at 45142. @@anabolicamaranth7140

@jimmyglen 17 күн бұрын

Hoping for an uptick in corn asap

@davezalinko1354 17 күн бұрын

Not sure what to say!! Maybe “cheapy cheap”. Have a great day everyone!

@BLuigi747 17 күн бұрын

Above trend yield sure looks like a possibility in a good portion of MN.

@davehughesfarm7983 17 күн бұрын

The pain is coming...

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 17 күн бұрын

Put options prevent any pain inflicted from low grain prices.

@davehughesfarm7983 17 күн бұрын

@@user-kc9xu9tm3n I have played commodities for years. Soybean calls, Corn puts, crude oil, lumber, lean hogs, feeder cattle, nat gas, silver, cotton, wheat about all of it I have traded.

@ttanne7838 17 күн бұрын

Bridge for sale : last seen floating down stream

@ttanne7838 17 күн бұрын

5.8 inches in less than 24 hours. It is wet now. Land of thousands of ponds. My part of North West INDIANA rain makes grain rain makes grain rain makes grain Have I said it enough to make it come true?