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Russia is losing a lot of tanks in the war against Ukraine and is quickly approaching the point where it can no longer compensate for these losses. Probably, by the summer of 2026, the Russian Federation will exhaust its existing Soviet reserves of more or less modern T-72 and T-80 tanks, OSINT analyst Covert Cabal has calculated .
He noted that for a long time Russia relied primarily on stocks of T-72 tanks, which were removed from warehouses, repaired and modernized, and then used to replace tanks lost in the war. However, the pace of restoration of these tanks is gradually slowing down due to the fact that fewer T-72s suitable for repair remain in warehouses.
To cover the gap, Russia has also begun to pull the more difficult-to-repair and upgrade T-80 tanks out of storage. Once the T-72 and T-80 stocks run out, the Russian military will be forced to rely on a trickle of new T-90 series tanks and the remnants of the "ancient" T-55 and T-62 tanks, the analyst said.
According to Covert Cabal, there are currently six T-80 tank storage bases in Russia. The analyst acquired satellite images of these bases to determine how many of these tanks the Russians still have.
According to his calculations, before the war there were approximately 1,200 T-80 tanks in relatively “good” condition in the open air. Currently, satellites detect a total of only about 300 of these tanks at Russian storage bases. The question remains how many of these tanks are in garages where satellites cannot see.
The analyst estimates that at the current rate of tank decommissioning, Russia will exhaust its T-80 reserves around mid-2026. Considering those that could theoretically be in garages, this point will not be much further in time. After all, first those vehicles that were in the best technical condition go to the front. Apparently these are the ones that were stored in garages. And only then did the Russians take on those tanks that were parked in the open air.
At the same time, Covert Cabal notes that the pace of decommissioning tanks is gradually slowing down, because there are fewer and fewer tanks suitable for repair, and those that exist require increasingly significant and lengthy repairs before being sent to the front.
The analyst believes that there will never be a complete depletion of modern tanks in the Russian troops. Gradually, their number in the troops will become less and less, and therefore they will be less actively thrown into battle and the rate of their destruction will also gradually fall.
"This means that Russia will actually only have a small number of old tanks left, along with a very small number of new T-90 tanks that they can produce. And once they reach that level, they will have real problems," Covert Cabal concludes.
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