Quick correction: Saba is the first female soloist POC for Denmark. There has already been Debbie Cameron from 1981, Chanée from Chanée and N’evergreen, Basim, Ben from Ben and Tan, and Ihan Haydar from Reddi. thank you to Dolphin Dane from Twitter and Kanabai in the comments here, for alerting me to this

Im fucking dying with these grass segments. Definitly the best part of the video lmfaooo

I’m shocked that anybody could be upset with you. Your analyses are so kind. You’re hoping for every country to do their best and especially countries, which haven’t qualified for a while. But still you’re being realistic and give valid points why a country will/won’t qualify. I wish everyone in the ESC community would be so kind. Unfortunately, I see so many hateful comments when people don’t share the same opinion as these haters. For me, these people are not real ESC fans. Because we should all respect each other’s different opinions and music tastes. This is what Eurovision is all about.

SloMo 0.9 💀 That's all you need to say about it.

It's pretty cool that there's zero "def no's" at this point - no one can be ruled out because the average quality is so high!

We actually have the exact same 10 going through. I'm most emotionally invested in Georgia 🇬🇪 and Estonia 🇪🇪 qualifying, I would be very disappointed if either of them fails to qualify

I want the puppy to go through to the final. Who else wants it through too? 🥺

i know you keep mentioning that you don't like how big the whiteboard is but i think it actually works quite well !! it's good to be able to see everything laid out as you're talking about it :)

Agree, I think if there is a shock non qualifier it is Austria. Obv the bubble likes gay pop but it's not representative for the public in general. I never heard her singing the song well, I think this could be like Ronela from Albania a couple of years ago. And if someone will struggle I think Denmark will sneak through.

i love the puppy definitely helped and i just kidna like them

As usual, an interesting and informative video Tom. I think the grass and the puppy will be needed by some- very thoughtful of you to provide them 😊

My god the grass touching thing got me again

Saba is not the first person of color representing Denmark, you also had Debbie Cameron preforming with Tommy Seebach in 1981, she is however the first solo act of color.

Austria is overrated with the odds

Eurovision is around the corner already!!! Love your analysis, Tom 💚💙💜

Finally someone said it, Saba was just standing on a box 🤣 The song does stick in my head though sometimes (specifically SAND SAAAAAAND) Really hoping for a surprise staging at Malmö. I feel like the main difference maker for several countries will end up being staging. Crazy amount of quality songs this year so the staging might be what makes you memorable.

One thing to consider are San Marino's points. They will have juries instead of their televote. This greatly helped Estonia last year. So this might increase the chances of some of the more jury friendly songs like Albania, Belgium, Denmark or Israel. Especially Denmark and Albania who are more borderline atm.

Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Greece, Belgium will definitely qualify, it'll be an absolute shocker if one of them doesn't make it. Austria, Armenia, Georgia are very likely. Israel is kind of a mystery, cause I can't tell how people are gonna react. The song itself should qualify easily. The final spot is quite open for everyone I think.

The things I would change - Armenia and Greece swapped places and Belgium going up to "Def yes", Austria and Georgia going into "likely yes" and Estonia remaining as the only "Borderline yes"... yes, I do think there is only 1 spot for 7 countries to fight over and other 9 are pretty clear... In the NQ section I would only drop Czechia down to "likely no"... Personally, I think it's between Estonia and Denmark for the final slot in the final and Latvia (my country) will continue pursuing Dutch record of 8 NQ's in a row (which I think we will beat in a few years as I can't see the fortune changing for us in Eurovision, no matter what we send)

I heard that from San Marino's point of view it's just something to keep them somewhat relevant to the rest of Europe and that it costs artists to enter their NF and if they win, they need to fund everything themselves, they only cover the participation fee (AFAIK mostly with entrance fees from their NF)

Both Albania and Switzerland won't go with Sacha this year, but with Kaarija's staging director instead. I think Sacha isn't doing any counties this year. The word in the street is that she will do interval acts

I could see all the unexpected qualifiers qualify. I think only the Netherlands, Greece, Georgia and Armenia are safe

I just sat down with snacks and tea trying to figure out what to put in the background of my video games when I saw this. Tom always knows to upload when he's needed the most lmao

Love Jako, but surprised at your confidence. Hoping you're correct 👍

Thanks Tom for yet again an interesting upload.🙏

"His performance is literally standing there in hospital scrubs." Nailed that one 😅

Enjoyed both videos! I really wonder how much the automatic qualifiers performing during the show might influence the voting.

I have nothing to add to this analysis 😂 Austria and Estonia might however both be the shock non-qualifiers, and really all five could replace them, with Latvia and San Marino as the entries with the lowest chance to do so. Surprisingly or not, it will be the vocal issues that largely decides the outcome: Czechia has shown to be able to improve, Belgium will have to step up his game in the middle part, Denmark isn't totally convincing, Austria might not have the right voice for the song, San Marino shouldn't force things too much like they did in the preparties. Uninteresting performances are expected by Latvia, Albania and Denmark, but that is not really the fault of the performers. Malta is the entry that suffers the most from the running order, being first while she sings well and the performance is good enough to qualify.

I’ve read that Dons will be working with Nicoline Refsing so I’m pretty sure that the staging will be improved (unlike last year)

I love your sense of humour, it‘s so relaxing! And your analysis is very well thought out.

Fun fact: Since 2016, with the current voting system being first introduced, Georgia is the only country out of all the semifinalists this year thas has never qualified to the Grand Final on behalf of the televote.

I think i currently agree with you, the only one i might change is San Marino qualifying, but i wouldn't know who to change them with

Kaleen wasn't stand-in for Chanel ("Slomo"), but her creative director and over-all stage director of the contest in 2022. Nevertheless, she was a stand-in singer for other popular entries such as Eleni in 2018 ("Fuego").

This is where I'm currently at: Definite: Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands Likely: Greece, Belgium, Israel Borderline Yes: Austria, Denmark, Armenia, Estonia Borderline No: Latvia, Georgia Unlikely: Malta, Albania, Czechia, San Marino Out: I'm really hoping Latvia and Georgia are able to pull through but right now I just don't see it.

Again as with semi-final 1 a terrific analysis Tom! My only change here is that I hope San Marino get through. However I thought Achile Lauro were good enough to get through and because they were seen as a exact replica of Maneskin the previous year, they were disadvantaged. However I agree with you that San Marino seem to be a participant who are perennial low vote grabbers, so I am not holding my breath that they will make the top ten here.

Yay! 🤩

Thanks for your awesome analysis again Tom!

This is the Semi-final where I want literally everyone to qualify 😅 My biggest wish is Georgia 🇬🇪 to finally qualify! Nutsa is so talented and amazing. I think she will deliver it live and the performance will be 🔥

I love the Grass and Puppy 😂😂. Fantastic Video.

Love the puppy

"Hospital chic" 😂😂😂 seriously, Dons needs to ditch the clinical outfits! Latvia's chances are on life support (pun intended). If only they chose Vēstulēs 😢

This makes sense to me... But i would like to see Czechia take Austria's place personally as she was great in London

I have the same 10 currently, out of that group I’m most worried for Estonia, if the staging is messy I can see Denmark swooping in to steal their slot. Also I’m old enough to remember Estonia’s 2004 entry which was another fun folky song that is still well liked with fans, but that narrowly missed out on qualifying and I fear that history might repeat if they’re not careful. PS - cute animals make everything better!

I love the puppy. I hope Georgia will qualify. I don't understand people supporting a genocide and voting Israel, but unfortunately, It will be the case.

Semi final 1:From Italy support Georgia Albania Greece Armenia Malta They are all in my top 15 out of 37 Georgia, Armenia and Greece in my top 10 I really hope they qualify Deserve🔥Switzerland Belgium Israel Norwey Netherlands qualify safe And together they are my destiny for the final🙏❤ Semi final 2: Serbia Lithuania Poland Ukraine Azerbaijan Portugal Croatia (my favorites) Moldavia Luxemburg. Slovenia or Irlanda(My Dark Horses)

SAND! SAAAAAND!

From what I read on Eurovision World Albania's staging are done by the same people as Käärijä's last year so Reija Wäre and Fredrik Rydman then Melissa Thompson as a 3rd director.

team puppy and grass!!

Your t-shirt is so cute❤❤❤,love from China❤❤❤

Thanks for the video, Tom! We only disagree about one: I've got Denmark going through instead of Estonia. I'm not sure why: I made my list very quickly before watching your video 😁

I said my prediction every time before you said yours, and it is almost 100% like yours and where we differ, it is just a slight difference (e.g. to me San Marino seems to be definitely no and Belgium definitely yes... but maybe I haven't heard every live performances of Mustii's).

I have San Marino, Latvia, Malta, Denmark and Czechia (my poor Czechia) as missing out.

American here just a question, what makes the automatic qualifiers?

I love how all the gays love Loop! 😂❤ My favourite girly bop is Georgia though! It's so amazing to me 🚒🧯🔥

Kaajira’s creative director is doing Albania this year - Fredrik “Benke” Rydman. SJB is strangely absent and not attached to any project that I can tell.

don't show that puppy to kristi noem i'm leaning toward Belgium doing what they do most of the time and still qualifying and doing relatively well. This time around I think it'll be like Czechia last year where the preparties weren't all that great but the final product was objectively good. the thing with greece is even tho there are people that aren't gonna like it, there are plenty that typically enjoy when greece is "aggressively greek" in eurovision and i'm fairly confident the staging will go over well honestly if georgia knocks it out of the park and STILL nqs i'm convinced people just hate georgia for no reason. apparently SJB isn't doing Albania's staging this time :(

Good evening Tom, the b***h is back! 😂 I've moved and now I'm just starting to slowly unpack and settle in. Just been binge watching your videos that I've missed over the past couple of weeks! I'm now going to get myself ready for the big show. TV is off up in to the loft that I've turned in to a snug with cushions, bean bags and throws 😂 Hope you've been keeping well ❤

I’m very excited for Semi 2 this year! A majority of the songs I love are in this semi. Thank you for all the great Eurovision content!!

I really hope that Denmark qualifies for the final this year. When there is no Danish participation in the final, the viewing figures are so low that it would be better for DR to broadcast a political debate instead of Eurovision.

I'm Glad u like my country Malta

I’m praying Loop makes it in, I love it too much

Albania has a lot of voting friends here. In addition to Kosovo in the Rest of the World vote, Switzerland gave Albania 12 televote points in the final last year. Italy 7. Belgium gave them 8 in last year's semi. Greece 10. All 4 of those countries are in this semi. I think Albania's qualification chance is higher than the odds are currently predicting. I wouldn't be surprised if they qualified in 10th or finished 11th. With their diaspora points, I think that's more likely than finishing 12th or worse.

My prediction is: Qualifying: 🇨🇭 🇳🇱 🇦🇲 🇳🇴 🇬🇷 🇧🇪 🇦🇹 🇮🇱 (politics, ya know) 🇪🇪 (they are late so that’s good but I can see the Netherlands and Armenia stealing the fun song votes) 🇬🇪 (also one of the last songs but I think Austria might suck up all the girly bop songs, but since there are only 3/4 girly bops Georgia will most likely get a lot of points) On the fence: 🇩🇰 (I think they have a real shot, they just need to make it a visual masterpiece while also putting the vocals as the forefront) 🇨🇿 (vocals are getting better but she really needs to give it her all) 🇲🇹 (I think that if her vocals are flawless and she doesn’t pull an Austria 2022 then she can qualify since it’s such a fun opener) Non qualifiers: 🇸🇲 (I really hope they get thorough but it’s san marino, they have like no money and no diaspora) 🇱🇻 (poor poor Latvia, I really hope they get though one day) 🇦🇱 (this would definitely qualify if it was in the 2nd half)

Who is the cutest. Tom or the puppy? I pick Tom.

I actually prefer Loop to Slo Mo - but i guess not being so overhyped helps. I still think Austria might not Q.

Not gonna lie, I'm not super confident about Norway. I'm not expecting a NQ, but I can see a world which this is just too niche-Norwegian for the general viewer to grab their phones to vote... I still don't connect with the song at all, and as a Norwegian and Gåte fan, I should. With that said, very excited for this semi and my votes will be going to Joost and Nemo.

Maybe you could change the background in your outro to some grass blowing in the wind. Just to make sure ;-)

Nothing much to add, you are always fairly objective in your evaluation. I am a little anxious about Mustii who is in my top three because of the flawed performances during the pre parties. I also worry a little about Israel and the shenanigans that may occur.

"Put him in a coffin." 😂

1:42 France🇮🇹, Spain 🇪🇸 and Italy 🇫🇷

Albania is almost 100% in, as long as we have all televote in semis

Just heard you say Saba is first person of colour to represent Denmark.........this was Debbie Cameron who sang with Tommy Seebach in 1981

JAKOOOOO 🗣🔥🗣🔥

This is probably the biggest semi of death ever since 8 of the spots are already guaranteed to be taken so basically 8 songs are fighting for 2 spots.

I think Armenia being a def yes is too high. I can see them being a shock non qualifier

I think this semi-final is a bit less open then Semi-Final 1. Any country can qualify from here except for Malta, Albania, Czechia, and Latvia. 100% Qualifying: Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Norway, Netherlands (Almost) Guaranteed Qualifying: Estonia, Israel Borderline Qualifying In: Denmark, Armenia, Georgia Borderline Qualifying Out: Austria, San Marino (Just About) Guaranteed Out: Malta, Albania 99% Guaranteed Out: Czechia, Latvia

I would say that Luna is a girlibop Thanks for the video Tom!

Just seen your correction Tom .....sorry i commented before looking

Eurovision 2024: A song where a cat is mentioned is among the favorites to win the whole thing Tom: Here‘s a puppy! Against the trend, ma friend!

You don’t need to have a good show, it is not about show, it is about singing😂😂

G Å T E 🥇❤️🐺

Sorry Tom, but you are not a random dude! 😂

I really can't see anything in Estonia's song. Unless they have a vast improvement in both vocals and staging I can't see it getting through.

Greeceeee Marina winner!!!!🏆🏆🏆💖💖💖💖

god damn it ulveham is going to be eaea and fulenn all over again isnt it

Controversial opinion: I don’t think Kaleen 🇦🇹is a good dancer. I find her style very soft and “slithery.” There’s no power behind it. And the song is punchy. It’s a big mismatch for me.

The fact that Greece is always being underrated… Marina is literally one of the best Greek acts , they sleeping on her. Can’t wait for rehearsals. Have so much faith in this entry 💓

Denmark non-qualifier shocker 🙄. Its really sad people ALWAYS Put Denmark at borderliner no. And not yes. But compared to others 1 thing i agree with Tom is that our stageing sucks. And is boring and thats DR. Not really going serious about it. And thats a shame. But its even more a shame people put us as No. Cause we actually this year has a good song for once. And WE NEED To qualify soon cause we about to build slowly a bad NQ Streak. Even San Marino has a better NQ over 6 years then us. Personally i hope Denmark and Estonia switch place. I Dont like Estonias at all. And is messy like you said. + I Think IF Denmark go through we gonna have a decent final. Since our song is more for the jurys. So if we can go to final i think we get a good amount of jury points

My predictions, based on my homemade calculations. 😋 Italy 129,3% Spain 120,5% France 119,2% Norway 70,3% Switzerland 66,0% Netherlands 64,7% Belgium 58,9% Armenia 53,4% Greece 50,6% Estonia 49,5% Georgia 49,5% Austria 48,8% San Marino 47,1% ---------------------------- Israel 46,7% Albania 45,1% Denmark 40,9% Malta 39,1% Czechia 37,9% Latvia 37,7%

Did you just say "The Netherlands used to suck at Eurovision, and now they're Eurovision Gods"?1 ♥♥♥

Wrong type of grass maybe Tom 😊

My Predictions to qualify for now they might change The Netherlands I'm sure they will win the televote in this semi final Switzerland Greece Israel Norway Armenia Estonia Georgia Belgium Austria I am not sure on Austria Belgium and Georgia yet Belgium first I listened to I thought it could come top 10 now I'm kind of not sure he's a great performer but I find he's vocals shaky sometimes Austria also her live and vocals weren't the best either and I won't be surprised this NQ I think the bookmakers are overrating this Georgia In my opinion Georgia should definitely qualify her vocals are way better then Austria and Malta but the song is kind of generic but Georgia is another country not the best at televoting NQ Malta San Marino Denmark Czechia Latvia Albania I still think people are underrating San Marino and Malta San Marino has Spain voting in this Semi Final they could get 12 points from them but I'm still not sure of them qualifying Malta same story not great with televotes but she is a great performer It could maybe qualify over Austria but unfortunately I don't think it will qualify but I would not count her out Czechia another country not great with televotes but they have a terrible running order this could get lost easily unfortunately the song started to grow on me now but I don't think this will qualify Denmark if there where juries I would say this could qualify same thing with Latvia but since its 100 percent televotes I'm not sure they will qualify Albania unfortunately in this Semi Final they have the weakest song and singing in 2nd death slot and I think this will struggle to qualify I still think they should have kept the song in Albanian she has great vocals but the song is extremely weak I find it

I really really hope that Georgia qualifies 🙏🙏

My 1st: Italy My 2nd: Greece Uh oh...

Hi you sexy Tom😍..thanks god your prediction for Slovenia was wrong😜. Enjoy your stay there🤗

Well Kosovo voted last year as the Rest of The World and Albania had 12 points in the semis and 10 in the finals cause Albina and her family are from Kosovo and the song was about families so everyone here in Kosovo voted for it, this year is different case - first people here don't like Besa and second they don't like her song and wont be voting for it - I guess Croatia will get their votes this year.

What?Likely yes to Greece???hell no..She will qualify of course and go strong for win..

Please Spain, vote for Megara!! San Marino 12 points🩷🖤

I am Predicting the Semi Final Rankings not how likely they are to Qualify. I call a few Songs Toilet Break songs. What I mean by a Toilet Break song is the song before it and After it is alot better than that song and So People might use it as a Toilet Break so they don't miss out dont much. Feel Free to use this Term if You want. Also If your offended by a Random guy in a comment saying this go Find Toms Grass at 1:07 and touch that and find the puppy as well at 1:10 Semi-Final 2 Prediction: 🇲🇹🇦🇱🇬🇷🇨🇭🇨🇿🇫🇷🇦🇹🇩🇰🇦🇲🇱🇻🇪🇸🇸🇲🇬🇪🇧🇪🇪🇪🇮🇹🇮🇱🇧🇻🇳🇱 1. Netherlands 🇳🇱 (If Im Qualifying Luxembourg mostly off the basis that they are last then I have to Qualify The Netherlands. Im on the border of Likely Yes and Definitely Yes. If they have the Outro Definitely Yes otherwise likely Yes) 2. Armenia 🇦🇲 (Yes you read that right Armenia in 2nd ad Switzerland in 3rd. I am Putting Armenia above Switzerland because I reckon there might be some people on the Fence as to whether or not to vote for them or not and decide against it because they think they dont need to and vote for someone like Armenia who aren't as safe also I want to Predict some shock Results. I have them as a Likely Qualifier) 3. Switzerland🇨🇭(The only reason this is Below the Netherlands is because "Europapa" is more televote friendly than "The Code" but both are Definitely Qualifying) 4. Israel 🇮🇱 (I heard People might be Boycotting Eurovision this year and Not Even televoting I response to Israels participation and any Pro-Israelis will probably vote this no matter what and If you Ignore the Politics behind the song this song is a good song. Eden has Good Vocals and so Because Im Predicting This Borderline Qualifier to Finish above a Definalte Qualifier. This song is difficult to Predict so I just have to either Put it where I dont Put anything else or Go Wild. I decided to Go Wild.) 5. Estonia 🇪🇪 (Definite Qualifier. Latvia will probs help them out but I think this could be Top 10 Televote overall without Latvias help or Help form any other Neighbours) 6. Austria 🇦🇹 (Likely Qualifier. Thais is a Fun song but Between France and Denmark and will Definitely Standout and shes shown her Professionalism at the London Pre-Party when she had had the Wardrobe Malfunction. She showed us she know how to deal with things when they go not Ideal. I would be surprised it this isnd on the Left side of the Scoreboard on Grand Final day (Technically Grand Final Morning Because I'm from Australia)) 7. Norway 🇧🇻 (Don't Have much to say about this. Likely Qualifier) 8. Greece 🇬🇷 (To me this song could be one that Qualifies easily but absolutely Flops in the Final. Im not a Fan but Its probably Popular enough that it will Qualify. Likely Qualifier) 9. Czecia 🇨🇿 (This is a Grower for me. The National Final Performance was underwhelming. All the ESCZ24 songs were but the Performance has gotten Better and the Revamp Helped. This song this is a Borderline Qualifier) 10. Denmark 🇩🇰 (Just have Denmark Scraping Though because Its a Borderline Qualifier that might get low Points in the Final but the saging will need to be and Probably will be good) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11. Belgium 🇧🇪 (I have this Boarderling Not Qualifying because To me this song takes a while to get to its Climax and when it finally gets there its just Mustii just singing the line "Before the party is over" over and over again In other word Its an Anti-Climax that leaves you wanting more. Originally I liked it but Its just been falling down my rankings ever since. With this song being Between Georgia and Estonia I this this song is a Toilet Break for those who didnt go while San Marino was on) 12. Georgia 🇬🇪 (I have Georgia as a Shock Non-Qualifier. This could be my own opinions Coming in but I have to Predict a Shock Non-Qualifier. Its is a Borderline Non-Qualifier) 13. Albania 🇦🇱 (In Albanian I think this is a Borderline Qualifier but in English the Televote wont like that and its a Borderline Non-Qaulifier 14. Latvia 🇱🇻 (I hope they Get through but It doesn't seem to be Popular with the Public. All this song needs to do is Qualify and this could do well with the juries. Having said that it could Flop because Slimane might eat up all his votes. I have it Borderline Not Qualifying at best but Probably Likely Not Qualifying) 15. San Marino 🇸🇲 (Not much to say. Likely Non Qualifier. This could be a Toilet Break song) 16. Malta 🇲🇹 (Going First doesnt Help and Malta seems to have a low standard for Eurovision Entries but I dont think Sarahs vocals are great and Are going to be shown up by following Entries. I did this for Moldova in Semi 1 but this is a Definitenate Non-Qualifier)

I would like to Q: Netherlands, Norway, Israel, Switserland, Estonia, San Marino, Georgia Maybe Q: Czechia, Malta, Albenia, Austria, Armenia NQ: 1) Latvia, staging and song are a bit bland 2) Belgium, i do no like the act or song 3) Greece, the oufit is so bad. It makes the entire act look cheap. 4) Denmark, saaaaand saaand.