Our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning. Beautiful!

1) Mindful of luck despite ego 2) Use numerical probability 3) Use intuition mostly only for things you've done a LOT

I’ve played over half a million hands of online poker, and I played full time in casinos for a few years. And she’s right. The thing I learned that kinda haunts me is how tragic it is for some people to get lucky. If they won the first night they played and had maybe studied it just a tiny bit, they would spend years going broke over and over. When people win they think they’re a genius, and when they lose they think it’s just bad luck and the world is unfair. Everybody does it. And a LOT of non-technical people are so cocky that they think being able to shuffle their chips or identify which seat is called Under the Gun +1 makes them a highly skilled player who can beat just about anyone. But I suppose we all delude ourselves into thinking we have life figured out on some level, and most of the time it takes us way too long to realize we were pretty ignorant all along.

There is a 97% chance someone will claim to be the first commenter on a TED Talks video. There is a 68% chance two or more will.

Lol I literally use words like probably and sometimes BECAUSE I don't want to convey any real information🤣🤣

1) Don't overestimate your abilities because of easy success 2) Speak more specifically (i.e. say "%chance" instead of "probably") 3) Poker tourney winners wear glasses. Nerds wear glasses. Nerds don't use intuition. Therefore intuition must be bad... (except for easy stuff).

What an absolute beast. Coming from a live poker player, she's extremely intelligent and knowledgeable. She's been around the biggest games for awhile and married a great poker player Igor..do wish her nothing but the best...amazing to see her on T.T. :)

bro you just crammed in the most useful info i've ever heard for a site anchor in five minutes and some change. huge W for making it short, clear and concise👁️👅👁️

The whole title wasn't displayed in the notification. I thought it was 3 decisions from a pokemon... was really intrigued.

One of the my favorite poker players of this decade, she's awesome.

I've been a big fan of Liv for years. Great TED talk!

4th lesson: Everything you do conveys information. You can't be all loosy goosy, eating a sandwich, or checking your phone.

It's lessons like these that we all know, but often need to be reminded of.

I am not a pro, but I used to play a lot and studied a lot about the game. Poker definitely have taught me a bunch of life lessons beside what's mentioned in the video 1. stay focused on the goal - having fun vs making money. 2. adjust strategy according to situation - ppl nowadays always try to come up with formula to success and lot of ppl screwed up because situation can never be the same like poker. every time your opponents are different and their hands are different. tat's y I hate those poker videos saying you should do this when u have AK and you should do that when u have suited connector 3. analyzing - that's what I like the most about this game. analyzing your opponents and exploit their games. 4. you can never escape from tipping, have to tip the dealer when you are trying to make money at the table. hey why don we tip the floor manager. He is making sure we have a fair game

And the award for the least nervous TED speaker goes to...

There's a 69% chance people will take your opinion seriously if you look this good in real life.

She looked in the mirror and thought “I’m 100% hot”

70% of the viewers find her attractive

Too be honest the best poker players don’t have souls. Great short talk. I’ve been a profitable poker player for over a decade & using my gut is a huge part of my success.

Now......... Imagine TONY G up next with his presentation.......

Yep, all of this applies to investors as well. Pretty easy to feel like a genius when the market is on an upswing.

It’s not right to say your intuition has no data. Your “gut feeling” is the result of a fantastically complicated subconscious evaluation of everything your brain has available, from knowledge, previous experience, probabilities, risk/reward, etc... It’s doing far more than you can process consciously and it’s doing it in the background while you’re still mouthing “hmmm”. There’s been talks on “gut feelings”, probably on TED. If something is too complex to evaluate consciously, your gut is a good, albeit unclear, alternative. The problem is you can’t cross examine or defend a feeling that your brain served up subconsciously without providing any logic. The “soul” I would’t trust because science can’t find it 🙃

"I'm really tired of looking at Live Boeree's face" said no man ever.

I use percentage probabilities when planning and explaining. My friends understand them better XD

Beautiful, intelligent, confident, and successful. This is what a high quality woman looks like.

Well spoken, insightful talk.

I played 25,000 online poker games safely and won 24%. So simple math will tell you the Winnings from those games must be more than 76% of the losses. Very difficult without bluffing.

5:11 Malcom Gladwell's book Blink actually addresses this - for the bigger decisions in life, go with your gut.

1:40 You weren't overestimating yourself. That's nearly a typical Control Systems graph with a first peak overshoot basically being the highest point of your graph, and then a series of lower and lower overshoots, later settling down to within the tolerance band. Very very nice. Careful, methodical, ruthless, and utterly practical, rationally so, always. That is the way to go. When going for the big ones, the first peak overshoot is where you hope you'll land, the eventual low is what you prepare for, the worst case scenario so to speak, and the tolerance band should always be, probabilistically, higher than where you started. High chances, low reward is always preferable to low chances high reward. Because despite what every single success story on stage tells you, no one hears from the tens of thousands of failed gambles that never made it off the ground. Take care of yourself always. We have come a long long way from the medieval times. It's time we put our mathematics and our scientific brains to use. Guys, this is what even my friends, in Arts and Commerce say. Mathematics and Physics, also programming are very nice tools to have. They open up avenues, and interdisciplinary routes that you would not even contemplate otherwise. Life is irregular so why would subjects pertaining to what we do with it be do neatly divided into non-interacting piles? They interact, to create something truly ground-breaking. Remember Einstein dreaming up Newton and Maxwell together? Of how watching stationary electromagnetic waves, if you moved at 'c' in vaccuum violated Maxwell's laws? There is never a reason to not cultivate your mind. This is the true fruit of our times. And to be able to contribute to that field is what is my dream. P.S. There is a 90 per cent chance someone is going to say, and I quote- "No one cares."

Poker is a results oriented game but can be boiled down to process. If you can get your process right (your skill level, the right playing style, the ability to adapt when needed) you can be successful. Trust your process but be prepared to alter it to suit.

Wow she's beautiful.

Mesmerising, for so many reasons.

Yes, yes and yes! TED, poker, and Liv :)

i’m such a liv fan boy. go liv go 💋

Good talk Liv! Especially the part about intuition

Think, fast and slow. Great book. :)

Many thanks for your advice, Liv Boeree. Love you so much. We don't have any data to be based off.

I had to rewatch the video in order to absorb in what the speech was about. But on my... she is a work of art. If I have girlfriend this beautiful and smart, I'll definitely consider of putting a ring on it.

95% dudes clicked because of her picture. 100% chance I did.

1. Don't overestimate ability, because there's always luck 2. Think in numerical probabilities 3. If in doubt, do a Cost-benefit analysis

Liv Boeree is so lively-and what a personality! I like her being on stage; she resembles very much a person I know in theatre.

Liv was a TED speaker! WOW! I'm gonna look this video now) She's extremely smart! :)

By far the prettiest woman in poker

The rope that holds you when you are weak weakens with time so be strong!

What is luck? I hear about it all the time, and still nobody confirmed how does it formed. Luck is a combination of hard and smart work, definite decision on your goal, persistence, faith, positive mental attitude, desire, self-talk, confidence, imagination, specialised knowledge (not a formal education), integrity, honesty, habit, etc... I like when someone put all of this in one word called "luck" in order to explain his excuses for not achieving anything meaningful in life. Most often people who failed to define others who keep trying and succeed as lucky, as the people who gave up on money trying to give a financial advice or the advice about how life is to be lived.

Amazing talk , loved it very much 😍

I remember that 2010 tournament win; that was a monumentally good ted talk.

I don't care if she got her success from having rich sugar daddies and being hot or if she got paid more than she should've for any victories she may have had in her poker career "for being hot" as some weird people keep saying. I came here for the video expecting to be told stuff I already heard a thousand times and she totally went past my expectations in that short time. I'm grateful for this. But lets be real though, the dude that jumped out his seat first to clap looked like he was pleased by both her great speech and her looks. His face was beyond what I've ever seen in a ted crowd lmfao

If you guys like this video, do checkout Verisateum's video on the importance of luck in success. In a nutshell, it argues for paradoxical thinking - assume confidence before you do something, but be grateful once you achieve it - as luck probably played the greater role in the end, all things being equal. So you gotta bring your A-game no matter what, luck is that extra something that is always needed to stay ahead of the crowd.

"The future is unknown but you can damn well try to estimate it" When making decisions I try to approximate probabilities of future events 94% of the time.

Liv, you transpire confidence!

perhaps, the most interesting talk on TED. so much packed into such a small syllabus...

How do you not downplay your luck and simultaneously not overplay your intuition?

Nearly 4 million dollars in winnings and such natural beauty, lovely.

Intuition is subconscious thinking and can be extremely effective on even the most complex problems But it can be derailed by triggers, such as emotional stress

Happen to me in the stock market where I thought I was so brilliant

It takes a probable amount of wisdom to realise we know very little in reality. Liv ❤

She looks like Jack Sparrow's Oxford educated sister who chose high stakes instead of the high seas 😂😂😂

The data from intuition is your souls wisdom 👌🏼

Play your game and if you are lucky that day getting good cards you will win no matter what and if you are not lucky just take the loss and start all over again next day.

Brilliant, clear and concise.

Which option would you choose if you had only one more year to live. Try that one if you are stuck :)

amazing to see her on T.T

The word probably means, 'a more than 50% chance but less than 100% chance', so it's meaning is quite specific. Granted the difference between 51% and 99% is pretty big but they are both probable. I was an English teacher for over 20 years and have seen people getting this incorrect with alarming regularity.

What the heck...I won two matches online and I thought i was the best...and youtube recommends me this video....oh god lol

Love Liv Boeree!

I could not seethe last picture she was presenting at the end of video because of random recommendation of other ted talks

This is nothing short of extraordinary. I came across similar material, and it was absolutely breathtaking. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell

what a great and interesting speaker.

Couldn't see point 3 slide because of KZfaq suggestion overlay.

I love your motivational quotes, they make sense.

wow, Liv is a data lady as well as a poker player. Love it!

I came here for one reason and one reason alone. Poker had nothing to do with it. Of course it must be for the decision making part...

This was an incredibly good ted talk

I hate the Good morning/ messages giving daily dose of guidance even though you don't need it! Thanks for turning them down👍

@4:21 that's an understatement for Christoph Vogelsang (bottom left)

So, so true. We undervalue the role of dumb luck when we're having success. And there are totally benefits to quantifying odds and risks.

More people need to play serious games of poker or any field dealing with probabilities. Poker would welcome more women too.

Very good talk!

Intuition is good when you don't have enough information or time to analyze but you do need to act. That's why you need at least a vague plan in the long run.

Why should I trust her?? After all she is a poker player.

so its LUCK, QUANTIFICATION and INTUITION. very nice talk

I actually speak in numbers too lol. It's very important to be specific

The only reason im here is because the presentation looks soooooooo good.

I knew there was Tim down there!

WOoo that face with that accent 😍

When everything becomes data and numbers, I'll be there, gladly holding my bleeeding heart with my hands.

Luck, quantification, intuition

She can be a good Hollywood actor

I’m only watching this cos she looks really pretty

but isn't the decision making in poker a set of rules that rarely change and those rules aren't morphed in any manner that require major adjustment; where as in life, an evolving world where decisions to do are sometimes not correct at that moment in time, to do means you already made the decision but the consequences of doing are much higher in reality than in a game you chose to play vs a reality you are dealt in which having to fight like H to get away from previous bad decisions made by parents to have you which leads to you in a bad case of the bends of decision making. You are dealt a bad hand in poker you fold......you are dealt a bad life you have to continue to fight and if you fold you chose not to get out of the BS that has been dealt to you. The decision making from a poker player is mute or static in nature because it is under a limited factor of moves that can be made by each player based on their hand they are dealt. The factors in life decisions can have a major skewing of those decisions and that's rather they are performed or not, cause and affect have different costs and that is based on the specifics to what it is applied to. The more specific to a set of laws, rule, or understood patterns the less likely bad decisions are made and the cost is lower IF setup that way. A factor of human in reality decision making can make what is good for you bad for another person who then may or may not have the power to destroy your process in that decision. For example the decision to play the power-ball lottery is to match 7 number......it is simple set of rules but deciding to purchase too many thinking that would increase your odds in a game that is random with no idea of any number correlation being a factor nor manipulation of many factors to which it lowers the possibility of guessing correctly is a game full of factors against good decision making skill. Humans manipulate factors of decisions made by other humans in order to gain more on the side that is truly the winner versus those that can not manage a decision. In other words, there are those who have the power to make bad decision but have processes in place to alleviate those bad decision, they have power ergo government. Playing one or two sets of numbers mean you have just the same chances of your number coming up as a person who has many numbers. The only way to truly win is to play all combinations of number within that set and that is not a sound decision to make unless the odds are favorable, which they aren't unless you are the people who made the game. You can rune your life IF you make decisions you can not afford or decided in not do something that would later eat you alive....but in most cases you should plan for the consequences of those course of action made by self and made assume the actions of others outside of your decision making IF it affects more than just you. Skill matters to an extent and luck is who you know when you have to work for someone. Working for self you have to hope luck is on your side IF you can not afford a major set back.......your skill can be great at the job but there may be factors that limit those skills being use.

She makes some good points. Does anyone think she’s read the book titled, “Blink”?

She used a graph that looked like waitbutwhy. And the guy in the audience standing up at the end is Tim from waitbutwhy.... What does it all mean?

4:21 Is that Tim Urban from waitbutwhy?

From what part of England is that accent?

she is freaking awesome!!!

Her third point is practically the opposite of what Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer at “How do smart people make smart decisions?“ said. So I guess ist not that simple to say either way…

Well said.

1:30 I was gonna make a joke about this looking like something from waitbutwhy, only to see him in the audience at 4:17

What she really wants to confess about? I didn't understand her motive and idea of decision making?