these videos are always funny to watch 10 years later

I watched this whole video waiting to see Quentin Musty as a steal at #26 (elite prospects had him listed at #12). Luca Cagnoni was also expected to go early 2nd round (mid 30s) and ended up going in the 4th at #122. If he wasn’t a short king defenseman he’s probably a 1st rounder.

I honestly feel like the Blackhawks won the draft. Obviously Bedard was a no brainer but getting Moore at #19 a top tier goalie prospect and Nick Lardis at #67?! Dude looks like a first round talent since getting traded to Brantford. Add those prospects to Frank Nazar, Korchinski and Colton Dach and you got yourself an incredible young core. Couldn’t be more excited about the hawks future, god knows they’re currently hard to watch.

the problem with these hypotheticals about trading back is the "probably would be there" If your scouts are high on a player and he's there at the pick they're going to take the sure thing instead of the risk of losing him over a few spots.

I still cannot believe benson slid to 13

Reinbacher would have been taken 6th by Arizona. Nashville wanted Reinbacher at number 5, they offered Montreal a trade for the 5th pick. There was a lot of interest for Reinbacher because the scouts watched him play every night so they know what reinbacher can do…against men in the Swiss National League.

As a Sabres fan, I was super happy everyone passed on Benson. What a grab!!!

Quentin Musty was a pretty good steal at 26!

I have a question for you. Would any of the top three picked defenseman go before the top four defensive prospects in next years draft? All I heard leading up to the draft was how weak the defenseman class was.

Also, your whole formula is based on the premise that teams could trade their picks just because they want to. This year more than ever that wasn't true. There wasn't 1 trade in the first round. At the top of the draft the teams didn't want to trade down, then after 5, nobody want to trade up because of the depth.

Danielson played on a garbage team and was quoted by Connor Bedard as the hardest player to play against, if you flip the DRW picks and put ASP at 9 and Nate at 17 it’s still a home run. Love the pick.

As a Rangers fan i was curious as to why Gaber Perrault fell as much as he did.

so basically you are saying that public rankings are more important than actual rankings of NHL teams? thats hilarious

Michkov is 100% the biggest steal of the draft, he’s the best Russian prospect since Oveckin and Malkin, it’s not even close

Just look back at the draft in 5 years. There are so many players that are picked that never make it to NHL, even in first round. Predraft rankings mean nothing. Look at Patrick Nolan.

As a Canucks fan, I like Willander (we desperately need defenseman) but the clear best player available was Benson. I wish we had picked him. Kinda pissed Chicago also got Moore. Best skater in the draft. Willander was one of the top d-men in the draft. I have high hopes for him. I just want him to be a bonafide NHL regular. Praying he doesn't bust like Juolevi or flame out like Virtanen- both those guys had substantially better players on the board in their draft and every fan knew it at the time. I also remember ranking high Boldy and Caufield- I like Podkolzin but he wasn't my first choice and wish we'd picked one of those guys instead.

Congratulations to Philadelphia, for having the balls to take a chance on Michkov. He WILL turn out to be a generational cornerstone of their team. So, so silly for six teams to pass…

Most of these pre-draft rankings are done before the playoffs or the player is under scouted, which why you may have late draft risers (ala Erik Karlsson). The only lists that matter are the team's list not the publicly available ones. To evaluate whether the pick was a steal or reach, you would need the lists from all 32 teams.

I really like the idea to use pick value to figure out value of a pick, great vid

Pretty surprised you didn’t have Perreault on this list. Pretty sure most rankings had him going anywhere from 8-15 and he didn’t get picked till 23rd. I’m assuming it didn’t meet your formulas standards or you just hate the Rangers lol

I love how underrated David Reinbacher is 💪🏼

Quinten Musty is not on this list is a crime

Trading down doesn’t make sense man clearly teams go off the board so you can’t just trade down like teams won’t take the guy your team wants even if he’s projected later

Confused as to how averaging consensus draft rankings provides any real insight into player value. Has that valuation method indicated success in past drafts? Wondering what convinced you to make a video using this theory.

Fantastic video

Did not expect us to get benson lmaooo

do u even do any scouting simashev is the top dman ii the draft

Cristall was the player I wanted my Kraken to pick. Definitely a steal for the Caps! Edit: Jebaited by the thumbnail was hoping to see something about the Kraken 😢

grabbing the top defenseman in a draft is rarely a mistake. 5th overall was a tough spot. just glad we arnt taking on the mitchkov drama. got enough already

I get what you mean by reach or steal here because it’s based off of mock drafts. Just seems like a silly exercise when these guys have not played yet. I remember when Filip Zadina was an “absolute steal” at #6OA…

Nice video and format 👍

Quentin Musty exists

Interesting video. A couple of things. I would call it a reach if the team had a later pick they could have taken the guy at up to the average position. Saying a team could have traded back a few spots to take a guy at his average draft ranking assumes that you can make any trade you want and if I'm remembering correctly there wasn't one trade in the first round this year. Also the projected range on those rankings for most of the players have quite a difference from the high point and low point. I notice that quite a few of the reaches matched up fairly close to where Craig Button was ranking the player. Ultimately only time will tell which were reaches and which were steals, but it was an interesting exercise.

Ngl, I was kind of expecting Milic going in the 5th round to be on here. That kid was insane in the juniors and just won the cup in the WHL with great stats. I get that goalies are dicey, but his stats show nothing but good things

I don't understand the hate towards Danielson. He very well could be one of the players to make the team quicker than the rest. He plays a complete, reliable game and had decent offensive numbers along with outstanding defensive numbers on a very terrible Wheat Kings team. After all everyone knows he is going to play in the NHL at some point, there is no denying that.

Heh. Imagine thinking Reinbacher and Simashev are bigger reaches than Cowan. Also have to turn my nose up at any methodology that uses Craig Button and Chris Peters. For the most part, the "reaches" are going to be far better players than the "steals".

Michkov's rank is based on garbage speculation like "he will never play in the NHL." And that no one could scout him live save a few teams with scouts in Russia. He cooked Bedard when they met, Michkov might end up being the best player in the draft and that's not a crazy prediction a week removed from the picks, it was the biggest steal by a mile.

The draft experts that had Patrick Stephan and Nail Yakapov first overall?

This is an interesting concept but flawed. You cant knock teams for not trading down because its not all up to them. If a team trades down then other teams could get the player they want and for trading down you need another team that wants to trade with you and wants to give you good value for your pick. So putting a value on a pick isn't as easy as looking at trade chart.

Flawed methodology. Every NHL team has a scouting department that is almost certainly bigger and better than those you use for the ranking-pick differential.

For the record... Danielson outperformed Bedard head to head and his leadership at 17 is why Yzerman took him. He has much better talent than scouts give him credit for. Performed better in high quality games. Just saying.

I love data-driven insights! 🎉

I yes, just what i needed! Another teenager that did not watch 99% of these prospects but knows better than pro scouts! Context is important and youre completely ignoring it. I agree with some of these, but youre reasoning is weak

Michkov was NOT available to the Habs. He intentionally gave them doubts about his arrival in the NHL. Selecting him would have created a mess, they would have likely had to trade his rights for pennies on the dollar. They opted instead to fill a need with a very good (albeit not great) player because by pick five there were no more game-changers available (aside from Michkov but we addressed that already).

I don't know how you call somebody who went top 10, and was mocked 1-3 slots ahead of where he was picked, a "steal". Doesn't seem like it's even in the same category as the rest of these, and it'd be more interesting to see other similar ones. Also, give more for why they're a steal than just qualifying by mock drafts of, let's be honest, imperfect analysts. Tell us who nobody's talking about now but is gonna be a name down the line, not the arguably 2nd best prospect who went 3rd lol

I almost thought you would not pick Benson 👍

simashev is the best dman in the draft, love the pick for arizona

Reinbacher wasn't a "reach", he was by averaged expert opinion the best projected defenseman available. What is more questionable was selecting defense over forward talent. The need for Montreal might have been more at center or a winger like Leonard. Michkov with Caulfield already there wouldn't balance the needed forward depth.

You really need to check your biases on the Michkov bit

Zona was gonna take Reinbacher at 6 so how is it a reach

in fairness, arizona was absolutely taking reinbacher had he fallen to 6. but yeah, i'd have liked michkov or leonard. oh well. reinbacher will be useful.

You a caps fan?!🔥

fantili isnt a steal he fell into their lap he wuldve went 4th if they didnt ick him its not a steal 3rd overall ye a seal lol u must think leo sucks

What? Musty is an absolute steal at 26. And Cagnoni is a steal in the 4th round

I was hoping toronto would take brindley but Cowan is the better pick

lets go caps

Hi, I like your analysis and great work. But, there is 1 thing that I must disagree. In my opinion, if a team really like a player, his ranking is not important. If you want a player so bad then you take him. In the case of Reinbacher, he is a right handed Dman and those are not easy to find. I also believe that not many teams were ready to trade up by giving 2-3 draft picks in return. What is great about the draft is that all 32 teams went home after the draft thinking that they made great picks and steals!!

Simashev is big and can skate it is why he go så high, reinbacher was not taken to early he was de best d man in the draft

Where is Gabe Perrault

I guess Dvorský at 10 isn't a steal😅

Not to much expected from me for this one unlucky duck.

Cowan will be a stud lmao

I got news for you Reinbacher should have gone minimum 3rd overall.

Reinbacher would not have made it past 6

Hughes made mistake 2 years consecutive in draft. Habs need a better draft scouts.

purely statistical, danielson does nothing wrong when he plays, also most of the reach are d man but there wasnt so many in the draft wich should increase their value.. i don't like how you analysed it. b

While no one knows how most of theses picks will pan out in the end, this is a great video evaluating statistical draft value for this year. 😊

Whole idea how to rank the prospect in thhis video is nonsense

If you want the best ranked defenseman in the draft and you trade down from 5th to even 6th and 6th wants a d man guess what? you shot yourself in the foot. And guess what? 6th took a d am oh my! No subscribing sorry

if u actually had any knowledge u would know that Reinbacher isnt at all a reach

Saying Danielson is a reach is in itself a reach. Danielson had a phenomenal record against Bedard.

Barkey??

Informative and interesting video. The level of ignorance about David Rienbacher is staggering. I noticed the quality and maturity of Reinbacher's game several months ago and since then he hasn't ceased to impress me as much defensively as his ability to orchestrate excellent outings from zones and his effective game in PP. At 17 was confortable in a very good league. It reminds me, to a lesser extent, of the discussions about Kayden Guhle when drafted.

Benson going to Buffalo.

You really should learn how to pronounce the guys names.

So much habs copium in here.

I like Tom Hollander's personality (check out his interviews), but I'm so sick of my Canucks always going for bunt instead of a home run. There is no term my long-suffering team's scouts love more than "High floor, low ceiling".

why should anyone watch u over grav he acually does scouting does his own rankings based off his scouting and not others u dont fact check your audio qaulity is horrible it may soundd fine on headphones but oon speakers i have to turn it way up because of how muddy your vocals are work on your game and try again

Michkov Heidt Cristall Morin Dragicevic Fowler Were my picks for steals.

u should really study the material u make videos on you shooouldnt be talking abooout prospectss u dont spend your time scoouting nor are u good at it u just copy others and spew out misinformation