One other factor is the collection we already have at home. A lot of us are working through what we have before we buy any more. Too many whiskeytubers telling us the “must have” bottles that are okay and just sit on my shelf untouched.

As a note on the retail/consumer side, just this morning I was doing the rounds and talked to a manager at one of the larger stores here in Connecticut near me. He mentioned he got "extra allocation" drops recently after being told initially the 2 or 3 bottles they first received was all they could give them. A month later, he got more of those products (Blood Oaths, Redbreast LEs etc) and the rep told him that smaller stores are TURNING DOWN ALLOCATION! No space on the shelf and they are having a hard time taking on more pricey inventory and are starting to say no. It's a clear domino effect from consumer to retailer to producer. And they are starting to tumble.

Booze has always gone in cycles. I've been drinking both wine and spirits since the 1990s, so I've seen a few booze fads come and go. In the wine industry, there have been periodic "wine lakes" as a massive oversupply hits the market. Wine is in this situation currently. France has paid growers to remove vines, and lower grade wine has been distilled into industrial alcohol and hand sanitizer. Maybe there is a "bourbon lake" sitting out there. When this happens, the lower quality products lose essentially all of their value because demand collapses at that end of the market. Higher end products with strong brand recognition always get through it just fine. Even with a wine lake sitting out there, first growth Bordeaux will continue to sell for exorbitant prices. Even with a bourbon lake sitting out there, taters will still drool over Pappy and BTAC. I will not be surprised if a significant market correction is coming. Many people have observed a softening in the secondary market. I've seen some mid-level allocated products (such as Henry McKenna 10-year) return to shelves and become readily available. I have a rule regarding allocated bourbon - I don't hunt it, I won't wait in a line for it, and I will pay what I think it is worth (which can be more than MSRP if I think MSRP is too low, but not the prices that museums have been charging in recent years) if I stumble onto it. I've been stumbling onto mid-level allocated bourbon lately, and Buffalo Trace products are materializing in my collection even though I'm not putting in any effort or extra money to get them - most recently a bottle of Rock Hill Farms for $63. Additionally, the situation presented in this video adds to the evidence of a coming correction. People have observed Barrell pulling back and selling stuff off. I hope they make it through this, even if they have to contract their business, as I love their products. Smaller NDPs that don't have a distinctive product or brand identity might be in trouble. The proliferation of craft distilleries can't go on forever; those that don't make the cut on quality and those that have too much debt could be in for some hard times, and not all will make it. Those that have a reasonably diverse product line, including products like gin that can be sold immediately after production, might have a better chance. The craft distilleries that are getting into agave spirits and rum might be the smart ones; agave spirits are booming, and rum is showing signs of life and could be the next big thing in barrel aged spirits. Bourbon is showing signs of getting tired. Maybe history is repeating itself. By the 1960s, it had become an uncool dad drink, and to the young hipsters, it was hopelessly square. It's starting to feel that way again; bourbon's primary demographic is middle aged and older men (and I suppose the occasional old hag like me). Also, a lot of people (myself included) are sick and tired of the frenzied scramble for allocated bottles. Young people (who are the potential future market) seem to prefer weed over booze, and those who are drinking spirits are drawn to agave spirits. Out of the specialty bars I visit, wine bars have the oldest crowd, and I think wine is in serious long term trouble if the industry doesn't work hard to attract a younger demographic. It's the preferred drink of old crones like me, and we might be even more uncool than the old men who swill bourbon. Whisky bars are more mixed, but there are a lot of gray heads in those bars too. Tequila and mezcal bars, on the other hand, are full of youthful energy. These places make me feel old, but I enjoy tequila and mezcal, so I visit them anyway. Fancy cocktail bars get some younger people too, and I've seen them order whisky-based cocktails; maybe this is a bright spot for the future of whisky.

I think it will be more of a leveling out. Bourbon was undervalued for awhile, there was big growth, but companies tried to take advantage. Now you get it starting to level. I can tell by what is available now.

My price point is $60.00; no reason to spend more.

Agree…. Liquor stores that were reasonable are now museums.. and they will feel it. Plus the out put has me worried about the quality…. Like blantons.

Truly appreciate your content. I’ve cut way back on my bourbon drinking but you are one of the few whiskey content creators who I still follow because your content is solid (and your whiskey is fantastic). The current whiskey market has been due for a shakeout. The manipulation in just about every segment of this industry (esp. investment groups) coupled with the ramp up in production in response to the frenetic demand was bound to come to a head. Looks like that time is coming sooner than later.

The biggest issues these companies are starting to have is they want to sell that bottle at $120, but I am only willing to pay $60 for it

I haven't finished watching the video, but so far 100% agree. One thing you haven't mentioned yet in the video is the uptick in tequila. I can only speak from my experience, but locally have seen 2 tequila-centric bars pop up, and my visits to the liquor store see less people searching the whiskey isles. It's mostly the regular 1.75L Jack guys and the flavored whiskey folks that i see. Within the past few months I've noticed my state's liquor stores have increased availability of what I consider good/ harder to find bottles. Perhaps in some areas it's different, but for a while it was hard to find bottles like ECBP, Bookers, anything Barrell, Penelope, 4 roses small batch select ( on the shelf for 3 months wtf?), hell last year i had a hard time finding WT101! That had me very worried. In summary, I sincerely hope everyone who invested money in the whiskey boom comes out on top. However, I will welcome the increase in access to what has been to harder to find bottles and lower prices.

I appreciate the educational videos in addition to the usual reviews. Nice change of pace.

Excellent info. We can already see the secondary market falling over the past few months on everything aside from the most in demand product. I'm also seeing the major chain liquor stores in my area discounting multiple bottles from NDPs that aren't selling at their high asking prices. It's only a matter of time now.

I've amassed over 100 bottles during COVID times and I've been drinking thru my collection, adding maybe 1 bottle for every 4-5 I've finished. I've got some regret buys I'll likely never go back too.

I enjoy your analytics of the industry, a lot. Fascinating industry. Should be a capstone for an MBA program. I feel like we've passed thru the "love affair" with scotch and moved on to bourbon. And I think we'll see the sunset of mass adoration of bourbon and the "new kid in town" will be tequila. We'll see. Thanks for sharing.

In December, Single barrel,barrel proof JD was $99. This week it was $69

This was a Finance 301 course! Great overview of different businesses models in the space and your take on the market!

Some market correction is to be expected. I love a selection as much as anyone but is there really sustaining demand for hundreds and hundreds of different bourbons? Not likely.

Great analysis! While I am a big craft whiskey fan and do not wish for any of them to fail, I can’t lie…I would love to see prices come down!

There is a lot of good information in this video! I like the thought on the age stated or non age stated for X amount of money. From now on, I am looking for this before I spend.

Great topic, thanks for your insight. On the retail side, seeing a lot of previously hard to find bottles now sitting on the shelf. The glut is on!

The large retailers are loaded up with cases of sub par brands, cases stacked up on the floor and shelves gathering DUST 🤔

People may be getting tired of paying exorbitant prices for bourbon. It may be part of the general spirits spirits and wine cycles. Or it could be part of a general recession that is feared. The strip clubs have already seen a marked decline in clients. The new car market has contracted over 20% Anything spending viewed as a splurge or a luxury good maybe in trouble.

Fantastic content as always! In the same way that I love Bourbon Pursuit because of the guests that Kenny convinces to go on the podcast, I love the transparency that BRT brings to the conversation. Every BRT video I watch leaves me less ignorant about whiskey than I was just 5 minutes ago. Tremendous value and feels like a great justification for being a Patreon at any tier level. I have no problem investing in organizations that deliver value as consistently as BRT does! FWIW, I think those NDPs who survive the next "glut" will be those with the most effective marketing campaigns. There are so many options on the shelf that marketing is more important than ever to connect with repeat purchasers, and I think you are 100% right that the export market is MUCH more challenging to penetrate than the domestic market. Only the companies that are already multinational are going to be able to do this well, IMO. I expect some of these big multinationals to acquire many smaller American whiskey makers on the cheap if the downturn in the market applies too much pressure domestically. Slainte!

demand still exists. the crazies have slowed down buying at the dumb prices

Lot's of good information to digest in one viewing. I'll be watching again. I might bring a pencil & paper to take notes, too.

Appreciate the great info as always! Interesting stuff, thanks!

Thank you for the valuable/educational information. I appreciate you putting these pod casts together. I have started sharing my limited collection with others and have gained several new friends.

Appreciate all you do!

Always appreciate hearing about trends in the market, and this channel is always providing relevant information. Cheers!

Too many crappy craft makers in the game, and too many taters making stuff with MGP. Those bottles on the table are prime examples.

Another issue are the liquor store owners trying to charge full secondary prices. A fair market value is reasonable. Charging $600-800 for EHT single barrel is a no go.

Way to go with the transparency and honesty, especially for someone with stake in the game. Best of luck to you!! 💪💪👊👊

Most informative. Thank you for sharing this.

Happy National Bourbon Day!

Your comment about selling excess in the foreign market (eg. abroad) is valid BUT (and it is a big 'but') here in the UK we have a starved market with just a few 'heritage' distillers plying their wares over here (Wild Turkey, Buffalo Trace, Jim Beam, Four Roses & Jack Daniels being the main five), if other bottles appeared on the market there would definitely be a 'splurge' of sales for them at first and hopefully that would equate to repeat sales. As an example, we only get Benchmark #8 over here from the whole Benchmark series, no full proof, no top floor, etc. so they would definitely appeal to the Bourbon market here in the UK for two reasons, one - we don't see them on the shelves and two - the price (Budget Benchmarks would be so appealing to a lot of Bourbon drinkers as cheap daily sippers), then there's the 'mid priced' market Bourbons that would appeal to the discerning drinkers too. As I said we have a starved market here for choice in the UK and I for one would be interested in seeing far more Bourbons on the shelf, more choice just means you actually buy more (which I've learnt from watching the US Bourbon market grow over the last ten years or so), so it's a win for the seller and it's a win for the buyer, so I'm looking forward to seeing far more Bourbon for sale here in the UK in the not too distant future ! If you look at Jack Daniels they released their bonded, bonded rye & bonded triple mash in 700ml bottles which is the standard UK compliant spirit bottle size (rather than the 750ml US standard bottle size), so that tells me that JD are already gearing up for the foreign market rather than the domestic US market and prioritising the foreign first (hence the 70cl bottle size in the US). So if one legacy distiller is already thinking of this then there's no reason to assume that the other major players are not doing the same thing too ! Okay we have a starved market but we do have some great prices, I can go into anyone of the big five supermarkets and buy Buffalo Trace for £20 ($25), Eagle Rare for £30 ($38), Bulleit for £22 ($28) and Bulleit 10yr for £34 ($43) which when you consider they are always in stock and the price includes all taxes is not a bad price ! I just wish that we had more choices (eg. the 12yr Bulleit rye, Old Grandad, Benchmarks, ECBP, etc., etc.). I understand what you are saying but I for one would be happy to be 'flooded' by excess American Bourbon on my own domestic UK market, so very, very, very happy indeed !

Definitely good insight on the possible leveling of the market.

Thank for the information! Great video.

I won’t pretend to understand the bourbon market. BUT…. I am a Kentucky resident and the amount of new distilleries and Rick Houses that have popped up in the last 10 years has to affect supply to a point that it could get where supply could out pace demand and start to affect price. Legacy brands have really ramped up as well. With that said, people will always want the products that are extremely hard to get and willing to pay more for it. It would not surprise me if distilleries throttle those products and release them in small waves to make them appear they are harder to get than they really are. We have seen this practice done in many different industries to try in keep demand up to Covid panic buying levels.

Very interesting subject. Really enjoyed your thoughts.

Cool video. I'll need to watch it again to really understand the market details. Another possibility is people with the ability to hold can sit on their inventory and bring it to market later as longer-aged bourbon. As long as you haven't sold it you haven't taken a loss. FWIW, I know a lot of guys who used to drink Scotch but who have switched to bourbon because Scotch just got too expensive. Interesting data point: My local shop re-arranged things and needed to get rid of shelf space. He discounted a variety of things that weren't selling well. A lot of it was rye.

I really liked this one. Great job you two! I knew this would happen eventually

I learned how the bourbon business works. Subscribed.👍

For the regular Joe’s out there , money does matter .. most of us can’t afford the good stuff. It’s sad that it comes down to this…

Interesting topic. Thanks!

I got into bourbon and rye a few years ago and wound up with around 30 bottles. I quickly realized that drinking every day is a terrible idea and that the hyped whiskeys are generally not worth it. Haven’t bought a new bottle in over a year.

I really enjoy your content. I watch many of your videos over the past couple years. Thanks for representing the consumers and educating through the channel. You’ve kept me sensible when looking for good bourbon!🥃

Appreciate your opinion and the evidence you have to support it. Love the channel!

I've bought over 50 cases of $40-$60 MSRP Bourbons (plus a stack of age-stated Rye, and another of a $90 MSRP single cask Rum) on $10-$15/ bottle deep clearance in the last four weeks. It's more a correction than a crash. Bourbon 'should be' a $20-50 product. When you vampire 2x to 5x that for too long, the market provides harsh corrections. The collector market is slowing big time, but the casual consumers that actually drink bottles are buying about the same. I'm finding I have regular customers that are leaning to the clearance and bottom shelf whiskeys more often in the mix than the last couple years. The marginal brands, brands with poor promotion, and overpriced brands are in for a rough haul in the next two years.

Very Interesting info. I appreciate it! Hope to try The Prideful Goat!

The bourbon version of the Dutch Tulip market is developing.

What other channels do you have where I know you from? As soon as I saw you I checked the communities tab to see because you looked familiar but when you said real estate in Texas in knew I was on to something. It could be whiskey, real estate, guns, cars, I can’t place it but I know I’ve seen you round the tube. Great content ill subscribe wherever I see you

the most expensive booze I bought is Baker, Knob Creek 12, Russell Res Single Barrel, maybe $79 including tax. I may buy a 1.5 L for about that price, too. such as Maker Mark, Knob Creek 9, 1792,

Im a young buck to the hobby(24) and this information is super informative and super exciting! I got into the hobby debatably at the worst time around a year+ ago. As I was entering I got lucky to get access to “okay” secondary asks, but even then, I remember WFP peaked near me at 400. These days some will let it go for 170-180. Of course BT products are strong, but more and more do I notice bottles are fetching people lunch money over MSRP. On top of that, as a newbie, as more allocated bottles sit on shelves or sell for a hair over MSRP the thought of prices going down is like a ray of sun coming down. I’ve been desensitized to over paying and my skin has been hardened by all the old heads roasting me for paying anything over MSRP of a bottle 10-20 years ago.

Thank you for the video, I am always looking to learn more as I progress in my Whiskey Journey.

Great video on the info

Great info

I really appreciate your content and your insights. One thing I notice when I listen to the podcast version is that your mic audio is set a fair bit lower than your intro song so I crank the volume on you and then the intro song comes on and I almost jump out of my seat. :). Not a deal breaker but if you can equalize your audio somehow that would be super. Cheers and keep up the great content.

Dangit I love your stuff! So sorry for your loss. We came close with a couple of family members. It's tough. I was lucky enough to be in the Dallas area for training when I found you. Picked up the Pridefull Goat and loved it. Ended up back there a month later and got a few more! Love the in depth explanation of the wider market. You explained for me the NDP thing and what it meant. I've embraced it and searched out quality product that is reasonably priced. I want to pay for the taste not the fancy bottle or "interesting" back story. Cant wait to try your glasses. I noticed the shock to the nose myself. In the future I'd love to hear a deeper dive into Pot Still vs Column Still...advantages, disadvantages, why the bourbon would taste different with one vs the other. If you already have...hopefully I'll locate it later tonight. Cheers!

The barrel market is one thing. The collapse in consoomer demand is another altogether

This was very informative thank you 😊

I understand your calculations, Randy and Lindsay on what the actual whiskey should sell for, but I really feel what’s lacking is the quality and taste of the whiskey and how that figures into the pricing. as a bourbon enthusiast I base my re-purchase of the same product decision on how the whiskey tastes, not how the price should be calculated. great content in this video thank you.

Sounds like Knob Creek is still great value.

You two obviously dont live or shop for bourbon in Florida. There is zero slowing down in the bourbon marketplace. We have several local liquor stores where people camp out overnight just for a chance to get an allocated bottle. And are willing to pay crazy secondary prices.

All good things must eventually come to an end. Those bottles you enjoy, they will be empty at some point and not replaceable. This is one thing I like about single barrel store picks/private barrels. However good they are, I know that experience will inevitably end and it will be time to move forward with life. Too many people living like the bubble will just keep going higher and higher. They should be ashamed of themselves hoarding bottles and gatekeeping them from other people so they can make a buck. Nobody wants the party to stop and be forced to look at the tab.

Interesting commentary from the business perspective.

Totally love the skit at the end...some of the channels have gotten way too over the top with their reviews. Thank you for keeping it real!!! Cheers!!! 🥃

Good stuff! I would love to get my hands on a bottle of that 15 yr cask strength; is that still available for sale anywhere?

Another great show. Well done.

$100 per bottle is nuts

Thank you for your video, I always appreciate the insight and helpful opinions of others on my bourbon journey 🥃

The writing is on the wall, with Barrel Craft selling off barrels and putting up their 5 million dollar bottle plant for sale should make others weary

I try to stick with the big brands but would like to branch out to the smaller craft distillers.

Subscribed. Great video.

It takes 40 years for a white oak tree to fully mature or to even begin producing acorns. Compare that to the much much shorter time span for sugarcane. I have already noticed that alot of decent premium sipping rums are $20 cheaper than your average 90-110 proof bourbons. Thats part of the reason I have started to switch to rum. There are alot of rums that can compete with whiskeys in the same flavor notes and aromas. Bourbon is just the at the top of the american liquor industry and now the white oak tree population can no longer keep up with production quotas. We will have plenty of used barrels to use for wines, rums, whisky’s etc. but bourbon will get more pricey because of the lack of availability of new oak trees to cut down.

Great breakdown of the market and it's potential future.

As always Randy great content. I love learning more and more about thisgame were in...😅

It’s funny…..I literally talked with my brother in law about this exact topic yesterday. Personally I don’t want a recession in the market but some prices for certain bottles (excluding secondary market) are crazy. But just this year I think at least in my state and surrounding states we’ve seen the prices come down a little which is a good sign. Love the video and so happy that someone high in the industry that also has their own brand can give a very insightful look to the logistics from the inside. Thank you

In my control state, I've not seen much change in price but maybe a slight increase in availability. Things my be a little different in non-control states. I don't know.

According to the guide at Jack Daniels over 80 percent of their market is out of country sells so that really surprised me I would not have thought that at all.

Great info as usual! I have The Prideful Goat 6yr rye and the rum finished and both are great pours! Wanting to get the 15yr bourbon soon. I’ve given samples to a couple of store owner friends and they are considering keeping it on the shelf’s! Cheers!

Another thing that I don't hear anyone talk about is changing consumer tastes. Just 5 years ago, the state stores in PA probably had twice as much scotch and Irish whiskey as they do now, and fewer American whiskeys. Now I'm starting to see Tequila grow, as well as rum. That is only going to hurt the market for all whiskies. I'm not saying that tomorrow the bourbon market is going to crash, but I'd be willing to believe in 10 years, there will be a huge difference in the floorspace given to whiskey in general, and US whiskey in particular.

Very interesting...... Man, need some TPG in TN.

I think another sign of this is age statements being on more and more bourbons because there is just more old stock around.

There is a difference from the flood of new brands and desirability of hard to find old school high end bottles like GTS, PHC, OF, etc Those limited high quality items will hold better value The flood of regular will dilute “that market” The other item to consider…these are consumables, people are drinking them…so again high end bottles have a different value vs high volume bottles The other factor is the upward pressure from retailers raising prices that creates a higher platform for values…ie Henry McKenna was $28…now it’s $60. They have created a retail price that creates a floor for values much higher than what old school people bought in at So…yes room for a correction… But flight to quality, age, low volume production hold higher value

I really really really appreciate videos like this! Cheers! Happy national bourbon day!!!

Absolutely - this industry overinflated during COVID and we’re about to see a lot of subprime labels go belly up because they are not worth the dollar.

Good video

Where does the 460 come from, bottles per barrel? Thank you

I've been getting E.H. Taylor at MSRP for about 2 years now. It's dried up a lil lately but still have 7 bottles left. Eagle Rare the same way. I get Weller 12 sparsley. With the expansion the Buffallo Trace did and not driving their prices through the roof. Once they get 5 years on their rick houses the market will be able to be flooded. Their is bottles sitting on the shelf now that would have been sold the day put out a year ago. Only thing that sells fast is the ones that the secondary market is still jacking up.

Kinda true in a way, as non traditional taste of whiskey, but the pot still is really the original way to distill.

Love you guys🥃🥃🥃

This looks familiar to when Dickel shut down in the late 90’s That was crazy.

Interesting take on the topic. I hadn't really thought about the investment groups sitting on tons of inventory. If the Chinese ever develop a taste for whiskey instead of Baijiu, we whiskey fans are screwed. The legacy distilleries will fixate on the huge new market and shift a ton of product there. Prices in the US will increase and availability will drop substantially.

The rush to foreign markets is already happening. BT opening their tasting / bottle room in Europe is a prime example

❤

Karen clip is really funny! 🤣😂🤣😂

Good I’ll buy the cheap. They’ll go back up.

ummm...the black market has had impact as well. Bottle Chasing. Regardless, the industry is experiencing what all other niches go through. It is a sign of high demand. There is always a 'check'. It's a bubble, plain and simple.

Yeah I’m seeing this at my local honey holes. The usual suspects obviously sell like hotcakes and once in a while a new product will fly but a lot of these smaller brands popping up are just sitting there.

Collapse? I doubt it. Reduction of price and coming back down to Earth? I think more so. As long as the demand is out there and people are lining up for drops and buying secondary the collapse won't be coming soon. A lot of distilleries like Lux Row are expanding still after all. I don't think the industry is going to collapse i think it come back down to Earth as production has increased to meet demand for a lot of the entry level stuff. Buffalo Trace and Weller SR has become a lot more common now in stores when it used to be incredibly scarce. People have been saying the collapse is coming for a couple years now and it still hasn't and demand for bourbon has only increased. If anything the only thing that can hurt the industry is the increase of interest in other spirits like tequila/mezcal and rum. Something has to affect the public's demand for the whiskey to have any major impact on the industry.

Knock, Knock, Knocking on........