Legendary presentation. Tony has consistency been RIGHT (and often, ALONE) while others ridiculed him. Please keep banging the drum, people DO NOT understand how fast, violent and seismic these disruptions will be.
@wisefull3210 Жыл бұрын
Gonna be insane
@Scott-dg4nq Жыл бұрын
I liked the “a caterpillar with wings isn’t a butterfly” analogy. Definitely pointed towards legacy automakers not being able to transition to Evs as easily as they think they may.
@harrywind1870 Жыл бұрын
I absolutely cannot understand why only 40200 subscribers...
@stevebannell2948 Жыл бұрын
I've been telling people about Tony Seba for a long time. It would be good to see you feature Tony's predictions on your channel.
@skinnymoonbob Жыл бұрын
💯
@DaBooster Жыл бұрын
“ I don’t care what your opinion is, cost curves are like gravity” my favourite line in this video
@dr.reviratempos2336 Жыл бұрын
Gravity does not exist, in all reality. They are laws of buoyancy.
@syrupgoblin4920 Жыл бұрын
Tony's back!
@rogerstarkey5390 Жыл бұрын
YEAH BABY!!
@mjl1000000000 Жыл бұрын
❤ Tony!
@Nobody_Famous Жыл бұрын
...and the Red Tie returns 👔
@cloudstorage9928 Жыл бұрын
Have been waiting for his new content like a kid waiting for Christmas. 🙂
@alan2102X Жыл бұрын
Same here. Can't wait.
@riley_oneill Жыл бұрын
A butterfly is not a caterpillar with wings. That is an incredibly good quote to explain this transformation.
@DDD-wt7ly Жыл бұрын
Agree I was going to take notes on this updated info but that’s the only thing I came out with 😂. Caterpillars can’t be butterflies just by strapping wings onto it.
@1943vermork Жыл бұрын
Remind me of flying cars. Stick wings to a car. Et voilà!
@RandyTWester Жыл бұрын
And non-dispatchable, variable, unpredictable renewable energy is not like anything that people are willing to rely on, and pay more for. It's like switching from the horse to the buffalo.
@riley_oneill Жыл бұрын
@@RandyTWester People already are paying for it. The combined system of solar, wind, and batteries eliminate variation and unpredictability. Fossil fuels depend on a global market place for fuels. When you can fully self generate using your own equipment you insulate yourself from global fuel markets.
@hitreset0291 Жыл бұрын
@@RandyTWester 😂😂😂funny comment. You are good at fictional storytelling.👍
@williamcoari3162 Жыл бұрын
Absolutely fascinating. Like many here, I have heard this before but never get tired of it. Can't wait for part 2!
@michelangelobuonarroti916 Жыл бұрын
Tony gave this talk last year. That whole talk with better slides, very worthwhile. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/gdBpadGp2a7IhIk.html
@MrCparlak Жыл бұрын
I have been following Tony for almost 8 years already. He is a visionary person and predicting the future with innovation in existing technologies, not with sci-fi types. We need leaders like him in every part of society, not only in technology.
@changeagent5051 Жыл бұрын
I never get tired of hearing this message. Thanks Tony for hammering it home .. again and again
@Berretotube6 ай бұрын
❤❤❤same❤❤❤
@conradronalds7565 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Tony Seba. When I first saw your video 2017 I started to invest into Tesla, green electrical power and cooper mines for electrification. I have done well because you shared your knowledge. Thank you again.
@rudyromo Жыл бұрын
When Tony speaks I LISTEN! People who don't, do it at their peril.
@joshsnider6186 Жыл бұрын
"We built cities around the car." That turned out to be a mistake.
@youieismail Жыл бұрын
Not really, it's true when you think about it. Roads, parking lots, drive ways, and real estate is all highly influenced by personal car ownership. That will change with autonomous electric cars.
@xrayaiz74 Жыл бұрын
Love the caterpillar-to-butterfly analogy. This is an accurate example, of a good portion, of the mindset of legacy automotive companies around the world. Petroleum has been their 'crack' cocaine for so long, the detoxification process may very well kill most of them. I think this is why many have a high aversion to recognizing the clear benefits of a BEV (battery electric vehicle) over an ICE (internal combustion engine) counterpart. Clearly, Tony is demonstrating that knowledge IS power and that you should be armed with it to navigate the tumultuous periods ahead.
@Discoducky73 Жыл бұрын
The cost S-curve is being led by Tesla, who is well ahead of Tony's prediction and essentially pushing all other BEVs along the curve. And while this is happening, Tesla and other BEV manufacturers, are collapsing demand for legacy ICE and their suppliers. I'd imagine that Tony will talk about this in part #2 which I'm very much looking forward to.
@richmargin6082 Жыл бұрын
2023 and 2024 will be amazing for Tesla but now we still have the half price tesla that will disrupt again!
@najibyarzerachic Жыл бұрын
Tesla and the Chinese (BYD, CATL, SAIC, jinko et al)
@Steuben1978 Жыл бұрын
The only price that is collapsing is Teslas stock price!
@bruceli9094 Жыл бұрын
@@najibyarzerachic The Japanese and EU too. Everyone loves Toyota.
@stephengreen2626 Жыл бұрын
Care to check your prediction again? See the numbers and weep.
@Kynareth6 Жыл бұрын
If cost curves are like gravity, then why is RTX 4080 16 GB $1200+ while GTX 1080 8 GB was $600 in 2016? And why is Tesla Model 3 more expensive today than it was 3 years ago? I also saw PVs and batteries get more expensive this year compared to last year where I live.
@vjwebster Жыл бұрын
The exception proves the rule. And you're wrong about Tesla now that their price has just plummeted🙂
@Kynareth6 Жыл бұрын
@@vjwebster $45,630 after delivery, for a base model is not cheap at all!
@sonofgondor23713 ай бұрын
You're forgetting about one of the strongest factors to influence price, but necessarily value. One must take into consideration the number of dollars in circulation when comparing a point in time to another. In this case, the number of dollars in circulation today dwarfs that of the number of dollars in 2016.
@MonsterSound.Bradley Жыл бұрын
Thanks Tony. People are FINALLY listening to you (well, some). 😎👍
@Katelynfacts8771 Жыл бұрын
Great work Tony. Greetings from Ireland 🇮🇪
@passby8070 Жыл бұрын
You are totally right, the majority of mainstream news and organisations seem to have no concepts of compound & exponential growth. It's such a sinple concept, yet so many are struggling with it.
@ramblerandy2397 Жыл бұрын
The usual brilliant presentation from Tony Seba. If it appears to be one repeated message but with extra details each time it's because the message is so true. Can't wait for Part 2. 👍
@klauszinser Жыл бұрын
Its good to see that you are around. Currently mainly Europe is in big trouble because of missing energy. Well oil and gas are also used as components for plastic, pharmacy, fertilizers etc. Further, and especially the Germans seem really stupid in switching off existing and operational nuclear power plants.
@michaelkim3432 Жыл бұрын
It must be tough being Tony when he can see what's coming so clearly, while the heads of established industries are saying he's a madman!
@cannonskier Жыл бұрын
Great guy. So smart. Genius really Thanks Tony.
@robertn2951 Жыл бұрын
Incredible visionary!
@GershonBenYitzhak Жыл бұрын
"Motorola. Remember them?" Rofl that was savage.
@paulharkins4866 Жыл бұрын
Historically important and perceptive and valuable thinking and presentation, especially for the CEOs of all major corporations like IBM which is following in the steps of GE
@vjwebster Жыл бұрын
...not to mentiom Toyota!
@ovi9610 Жыл бұрын
None big Automobile industry CEOs will understand (with the exception of Herbert Diess) this huge disruption change in their working day. Must be broadcasted to all our teenagers secondary schools to understand the new World they will live in.
@GG-si7fw Жыл бұрын
Diess has a PHD in automation BTW. He has insight into the Gigafactories as the new way of auto manufacturing due to his background.
@RichardFearonjnr Жыл бұрын
Solid ! - Accountants are linear, reductionist mechanistic thinkers .. Now I KNOW I am not alone !
@rickb176 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Tony for this presentation, wish I had read your book in 2014. Fantastic predictions re. the lithium battery price fall over time, and the S curve adoption rates for disruptive new technology.
@cbmusgrave Жыл бұрын
Tony's foresight into the future is amazing - looking forward to watching things play out as Tony has described.
@darbkavon Жыл бұрын
Visionary! Wish I’d known about him years ago
@ebinrajmon5532 Жыл бұрын
Truly brilliant presentation Tony! My investments in innovation is heavily based on your research. Technically, I owe a part of my financial success to your research! Thank you🙏
@vjwebster Жыл бұрын
Tesla shares around 5 years ago, right? Me too, I owe him a heap!
@GG-si7fw Жыл бұрын
I believe Tony has a bachelor's in computer science from MIT and a masters in economics at Stanford. Great combo to figure this out.
@perlaursen18857 ай бұрын
He also recognized that history repeats itself. Fords Project Highland in 1913 was a mindblowing factory with a brand new production platform, that made the price of a car go from 800$ to 240$.Next year 200 other carmakers went bankrupt. No Wonder, Elon have used the same codename in his future plans. Of course not, for a particular refreshed 6 year old model3, as claimed by Reuters, but for the new mindblowing generation 3 platform. 😎
@manueldavid7369 Жыл бұрын
Very valuable. Thank you Tony.
@The_Limon Жыл бұрын
Reminds me that Toyota is in the Market Trauma phase… others will follow.
@vjwebster Жыл бұрын
totally!
@quiriousone8270 Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Tony!
@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461 Жыл бұрын
🤗THANKS TONY,FOR EXPLAINING THIS CONCEPT 😳😎💚💚💚
@johnhornblow4347 Жыл бұрын
Great to see the trademark red tie hasn't been disrupted....
@richardteychenne3950 Жыл бұрын
Right on the money as always Tony
@MusicMenacer Жыл бұрын
Hopefully this talk involvees the phase change in money
@tomcrouchman Жыл бұрын
Everyone who wants to invest in growth stock's needs to listen to tony Seba before doing so. He has a great library of useful uploads which bring the receipts and show his predictions in the past actually happening as he said it would.
@user-es6nv5zr1d Жыл бұрын
Excellent video Tony
@igranderojo Жыл бұрын
The current Crisis Era was described in book "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe. Tony is describing the details of exactly how. Strauss and Howe wrote in early 1990s their book. Tony has highlighted S-curves, disruption, specific technology converging, and the consequences.
@philipmartin3075 Жыл бұрын
Hopefully this information sinks into more people's minds. Thank you Tony for the excellent presentation!😀
@stun09 Жыл бұрын
You mind giving me a TLDR.
@albertmasserra4831 Жыл бұрын
I love your reports. Thanks a lot. Muchas gracias, Tony!
@somersetwealthstrategies94066 ай бұрын
Thank You Tony Seba! Your work is extraordinarily important, critical and timely! I fear for the companies and the people who do not study, internalize and put into rapid your action, your body of work.
@40watt_club Жыл бұрын
so much value per minute ...... tx Tony
@bambelbino Жыл бұрын
This guy made me a millionaire ❤️
@bambelbino Жыл бұрын
@ze teiro all in Nvidia & Tesla, both mentioned in his old book clean disruption of energy and transportation
@bambelbino Жыл бұрын
@ze teiro 180k 50:50, 8 years ago
@bambelbino Жыл бұрын
@ze teiro difficult... NVidia has a "political" problem. Tesla has to show that they will lead in full self driving.
@rajpattni6594 Жыл бұрын
What an insight, wow, and so well presented, Tony. Fantastic viewpoint into the future. Muchas gracias, Sir
@ShaletVarghese Жыл бұрын
Amazing presentation! Quote about caterpillar and butterfly was one of the best that I heard in a long time! Thank you for sharing this wealth of knowledge!
@davidm2845 Жыл бұрын
This is exactly what the auto industry is attempting, Toyota is trying to use the same assembly line to produce an ice car, then an hybrid and then a BEV just changes some parts. They literally said the same line will produce all the vehicles on different days
@xploreagile Жыл бұрын
Thank you for sharing, great message - Love the term "phase changing disruptions" Tony, I would be fascinated in your explanation of the S-Curve predictability in the light of globalisation
@Finlaymacnab Жыл бұрын
Love your work. Thank you for this!
@MrDuncanBooth Жыл бұрын
Thanks Tony
@nickkacures2304 Жыл бұрын
My Christmas present came early when I got your new presentation I have been following your predictions since 2012 you have been spot on Thanks
@kbmblizz1940 Жыл бұрын
👍 b4 even viewing.
@gradyford7831 Жыл бұрын
Dont make us wait so long for the next one Tony. I'm generally a very skeptical, traditional (see incumbent) type of guy and thinker, but I can't help but pound the Seba Kool-Aid
@mrspeigle1 Жыл бұрын
Nothing wrong with being skeptical. It's what saves us from wasting billions of dollars on technology That's not ready yet. At the same time I think Tony is absolutely correct about the changes coming. The math is there.
@kevinwilson1340 Жыл бұрын
@@mrspeigle1 I drank the koolaid years ago. We are working on disruptive food systems out of Africa and Seba's principles are bang on. The current dysfunctional and predatory model is fast succumbing to disruption. The convergence of disrupted long supply chains, rising cost of fossil fuels and fertilizers as well as the disenfranchisement of post colonial French policy is fast changing Agriculture our of French speaking Africa. The Europeans have a very shocking and disruptive rude awakening just a short "s' curve away.. I can't wait.
@macrumptonАй бұрын
Tony gives the impression that Entrepreneurs see the disruption coming and are able to take advantage of their insight, but I think it is more like that the risk takers are constantly trying to upset the applecart, and they generally fail until the conditions are right for them to succeed, and then some of the do. There were plenty of people trying to make electric cars for a century, and when conditions were favorable they succeeded and when the conditions were not right they failed and when the conditions were right again they succeeded again. It is kind of like thinking the winner of a lottery has some kind of special insight that allowed them to win, but that ignores all the other folks who tried to win and failed.
@jordinvesting Жыл бұрын
Great content! thanks
@steveresis9169 Жыл бұрын
TY Tony!!❤
@DillonLoomis22 Жыл бұрын
Should be required viewing on every college campus. Not sure how you can watch this and not want to irresponsibly funnel money into TSLA
@mvrck-pb5pk Жыл бұрын
Many Dutch are going to hit on your channel soon, to watch your 5 new episodes. 😁
@randallsmith7885 Жыл бұрын
Mature companies - especially publicly traded ones get trapped by their quarterly earnings targets. Everything is incremental. Set a modest growth goal, meet it and watch your stock options grow in value! No focus on self disruption.
@user-ig8jr2ss6j Жыл бұрын
Just my stupid question - why coal is so expensive if it’s collapsing 🤨
@charleswillcock3235 Жыл бұрын
This presentation will be lost on BMW executives - and some of their car driving fans. If in doubt why not seek out some Nokia, Kodak, or Blockbuster executives and ask why their companies have disappeared.
@DarylOster Жыл бұрын
Great job Tony, looking forward to the next one!
@davidwilkie95513 ай бұрын
The outstanding characteristics of Tony Seb's analysis is the Observable form-fitting S curves of innovation and Wright's Law overlay on the economies of scaling technical changes. The proof is in the putting of business development. So when he says a 10X improvement will inevitability replace old tech, why is that not recognized to apply to measurable Energy Thermodynamics of Power Generation potential in suppressed Nuclear Reactor Designs. (Rhetorical)
@paulntx Жыл бұрын
Excellent !!!🤔
@johncandelario294 Жыл бұрын
This needs to either be shared or hidden to let people just hit the wall 😢😊
@ivanjovanovic6291 Жыл бұрын
Very nice presentation Tony as usual. Eyes opening 👍🏻
@BryceLovesTech Жыл бұрын
Missed you Tony
@carnivorelove2 Жыл бұрын
When do we get Part 2?
@MarcoTrillion Жыл бұрын
AWESOME TONY!
@onone4199 Жыл бұрын
$151 per kilowatt-hour According to BloombergNEF, the average lithium-ion battery costs $151 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the average battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) battery costs $138 per kWh. In 2021 the average per kWh cost was $141.Feb 24, 2023
@FAST-TV Жыл бұрын
yeay new content
@saracowgill2144 Жыл бұрын
Where am I blind? This makes me think there may be a lot even in my own small life might be missing the vision to see disruption and collapse. #landscaping
@ChrisGageTX Жыл бұрын
We need to tackle equilibrium in the educational systems
@alfredspijkerman Жыл бұрын
Great video, message needs to get out. On the other hand, this is all be said in previous videos. So hope, next parts drops some new info and insights. Keep up the excellent work. Nay sayers might need some insight in the mechanisms of disruption.
@AAb-xy6et Жыл бұрын
And just to proof he really did make the graph of around 5:30 back in 2014, you can find it back in this vid of 2014: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/bt6pZKh1vp22pas.html You can see it around 30:40 exactly the same graph.
@KentHutchins Жыл бұрын
Proven. Good work.
@robweaver4715 Жыл бұрын
Where have you been? Need my Seba fix!
@jordansage9655 Жыл бұрын
19:40 some brilliant new stuff.
@777Outrigger Жыл бұрын
The adoption of cars with supporting infrastructure happened without federal subsidies? The Inflation Induction Act and other outrageous Federal help is not necessary. . US interest payments on debt is now at %580 bil/yr approaching the expenditure on defense.
@nemeer Жыл бұрын
@Tony, would you come to Stanford to give a seminar again? Would love to attend one in person now that I'm a student here!
@sammaimas15521 күн бұрын
So we are becoming isolationists at the individual level. What happens to the humans who are displaced by phase changing technology, restrictions on who is allowed to breed, compulsory euthanasia when you decline to a certain functional level etc etc etc....
@waichui29883 ай бұрын
Do not forget geopolitics. China is leading in two of the three technologies: energy and transportation. And they certainly participate in the agricultural transformation.
@VRVitaly Жыл бұрын
Grab a hot cup of tea and listen to how the future will play out.
@rich8304 Жыл бұрын
I'm adding to my ark funds after listening.
@simonpannett8810 Жыл бұрын
We may see the demise of some economies (Russia, China) follow inverted S curves. Japan is an early example!
@vjwebster Жыл бұрын
Ha ha not China. That's just the new American dream. China is and has been at the forefront for 20 years eg wind, batteries and now EVs.
@nickkacures2304 Жыл бұрын
Tony is the viability of offshore wind on Lake Superior I live on the north shore in Minnesota and it’s really windy out on the lake
@karolbagh3793 Жыл бұрын
Welcome Back 🔙
@AtCheruti2 ай бұрын
Not too long ago this "expert" wrote, “By 2025, gasoline engine cars will be unable to compete with electric vehicles”. It is now 2024, electric car sales are down and the ICE is still doing great. Not too much of a wise man he is.
@pd21522 ай бұрын
Solar is a good replacement for coal, but is the same true for Natural gas and Nuclear?
@reggie2261 Жыл бұрын
Blackberry smartphones came before Apple smartphone and why they failed is lack of innovative features compare to Apple and Android
@bntagkas Жыл бұрын
Light
@michaels6331 Жыл бұрын
I believe the current price of gas right now is a good example of what Tony mentions. Oil companies see their market share dying, so they are trying to get as much profits as possible before the disruption of electric cars destroys the oil industry.
@miketoni1012 Жыл бұрын
So how do you manufacture and recharge batteries without fossil fuels, not to mention all plastics and pretty much everything in your life is made with oil? Sorry oil is not going away anytime soon.
@michaels6331 Жыл бұрын
@@miketoni1012 You are correct, however a good portion of the supply of oil goes towards energy ie. gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. The shift towards electric vehicles will lessen significantly the demand for those oil products, directly to the consumer, then somewhat shift towards electricity generated directly by power companies. depending on how the renewable energy markets ramp up to supply enough power for the increased demand. Products will definitely be made with plastics/oil, it's the energy markets that are going to take a huge hit.
@Value_Pilgrim Жыл бұрын
Is there someplace I can download or watch this presentation? Thanks.
@vijayabhaskararaomunagala1427 Жыл бұрын
What about Hydrogen. Will it be future disruptive technology
@shepherdsknoll Жыл бұрын
Tesla continues to disrupt because it is not just making an EV, Tesla is making an EV with AI.
@PeterIsza Жыл бұрын
I understand now... We are going to eat the cars!
@robertweekley5926 Жыл бұрын
It's going to be a long time before I can get a Haircut Over the Phone! Or, Manufacture Hard Goods like Boats, Planes, Trucks, etc , "At Home!"
@robertweekley5926 Жыл бұрын
As an "Aircraft Assembler" I would say, Absolutely! And, I also am a "Robot Operator" at work, but know it's issues! 🤭
@robertweekley5926 Жыл бұрын
3D Printing, in Multiple Materials, from Simple Powders, to Plastics, to Metals, will change a number of Business Requirements, though! But Elon still wants his Staff, "At Work" to interact, coordinate, share ideas, get hands in, etc!
@The1mst Жыл бұрын
Where was this presentation made?
@fitness338Ай бұрын
Good grief. No wonder coal is collapsing! Policy makes it so! You can predict some of this by what policy you adopt!