As a former USAF Intel I assess China did not want another Mao in the history books so they used Tom Hanks disease to do the job and distract from the job being done. They are vengeful of the US influenced one child policy. Don’t forget that. Anywho, Chris, I am your ILR Witcher. Sidebar?

China says their Birth Rate is slightly over 1 (2.1 needed to sustain the Population) but I'm not even sure of that, in theory China could have 4 kids per couple and be heading out of this in 20 years, although dealing with Population issues for 20 years and x amount after, however, it's incredibly doubtful China will even get to 2.1 unless the do it at literally Gun Point, and I don't see that happening, so when we say China's going to be cut in half Population wise by this Date, but there Population is set to Keep Collasping till the come out the other end, than add the Death Spiral to the Economy it could compound that further! We are talking a Complete Collaspe of Society, it's possible China gets under 300 Million by the End of this Century, it's possible.. and a left behind toxic and crumbling waste land, a cautionary tale, expect their Higher Ups Know This, and they'd be more than happy to take US all down with them given the chance, and trying to overrun South East Asia to try to Stave that off, no matter how futile, could be what they see as their way out of This. Wars on the Table!

What everyone leaves out about Fertilizer or Food Issues, or Energy Issues is it's not our Problem besides the Price being x amount inflated, but not as high as other places for x Reasons and we have more money to deal with our lower costs compared to them. We are the World's Largest Food Producer and Exporter, We make enough Fertilizer for US and can export some because of such, because we have the most energy in the World Surrounding US and inside US, and when you compare pipe lines to shipping it across seas, most of that Cheap Energy is for US, and compared to everyone else, it will be cheaper! Because we use our Soft Power already to ensure our Prices are lower here than other places, like compare gas prices here to Europe before, point proven. But people frame all this as Dynamics held against US, However all these Dynamics are why we are going to Remain #1 and all our Enemies are Throwing a Fit while they can before it's all to obvious! We got to make it through this Decade without Civil War, and we literally got the 21st Century!

☣☣☣🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸☣☣☣ don't worry about China.... USA has a population collapse for 30yrs now. More dead whites than being born. Plus, life expectancy for whites has been in decline for 20yrs, shorter than China. Increase white Male suicides has drastically increases. Only Hispanic coming to USA is increasing. Soon your channel will be in espanol! United states of Mexico India your employer.....is growing... but, they know it is a burden on their country. 80% illiteracy rates, most newborns are from rapes. Largest democracy is also largest corruption! Not to mention it's the west new dumping ground for pollution and slave labor.

not interested. peter seems clueless male to female sex ratio by country (25~50 year old category) china 1.05 India 1.07 Kosovo 1.12 Oman 1.33 Saudi Arabia 1.52 Kuwait 1.69 Bahrain 1.87 UAE 3.27

As a Chinese girl,I’m happy they got good family,China abandoned them and doesn’t deserve them

@@vitaboostand my buddies nieces best friend was adopted from China and goes to a great university and has opportunities she never would have had which is the norm.

Good for the rest of the world bad for China.

Adoption is a drop in the bucket, that's not really the problem

The CCP isn’t forward thinking but rather is very short-sighted, and this is due to their big desire for immediate results…Things that they can show off quickly….They wanted to eliminate poverty quickly and slowing population growth using the one child policy is an example of this. Also the property bubble. They funded massive construction projects simply to boost GDP numbers even though it inflated the property bubble, but they preferred to kick the can down the road so long as the immediate results made them look good…..

Sorry to hear that, crazy economy. Good luck to you.

Manufactured chaos mate

@@RenegadeRanga yeah, I thought the same. There’s no way it’s incompetence, too deliberate to be stupidity.

We need to produce fertiliser here. In the same boat farmer in NSW.

What Brand of fertilizer do you use?

My primary concern at the moment is finding ways to generate additional revenue during challenging economic times. I cannot afford to witness my savings diminish to nothing.

Exactly! Which is why I appreciate giving a financial advisor the power of decision making. Giving their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risks for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it’s practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $1.5millions working with John Desmond Heppolette, for more than five years.

Thanks for the information! He really seem to know this stuff. I found his web-page when I made a google search of his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..

To succeed the financial market, you must review and put into consideration the dynamics of your assets prior investing. Analysis based on research is vital which is why I recommend investing with a financial advisor if you don’t know the basics.

It's 2024 and no recession yet

Example, please.

I've heard some complete bullshit come out of his mouth. The thing is unless you are well versed in the topics being discussed you won't have any way of realizing how wrong he is

This is exactly the kind of comment to take with a large grain of salt. Made no argument, cited nothing, merely made claims.

@@repCanada Demographics are what they are, and he's not wrong about China.

Agree, this guy is bullshiting. Why would China need to expand when the population shrinks? It’s a big country, china’s own land can support a smaller population for sure

Everyone remembers their first Peter Zeihan lecture

Yes the most awful and wrong analysis. Look up Nathan Rich on Zeihan to understand Zeihan.

Wishful thinking, it seems Zeihan has it backwards. I've looked at Chinese census data, and if anything, they are finding it's better than expected, for example China just "discovered" 12 million extra children born between 2000 and 2010, most of whom were girls. Why? One child policy made them HIDE their extra girl children so they can try again for a boy. Zeihan's odd 100 million overcounting claim is such that he is saying people had girls, reported their births, then killed them. Uhhh, no. While yes many Chinese did abort their girls, they did it before they reported them as births (either aborted during pregnancy or infanticide usually right after birth and finding out it wasn't a boy, sadly, I've seen abandoned baby girl carcases thrown in the refuse in China like it was just garbage, quite traumatizing to see). They don't keep the girl, report it to the government and keep it for a while, they'd get attached. They almost always get rid of it immediately, before they can get attached. No woman is going to breastfeed a baby they intend to murder and they didn't have formula back then. What DID happen is many mothers HID the births of their first girl or first boy even, so they could have their first son or even a second child. So China's demography actually is better than expected, in 2016 after the one child policy was lifted, demographers began discovering that there were anywhere from 30 million to 60 million hidden girls in China born from 1980 to 2010, which is good news for China. There is no way of knowing the true number of how many millions of girls went missing unless they get discovered or self-report as many of them have lived for decades using false identities (i.e. borrowing a sibling or cousin's ID whenever they need ID, living with another identity, living offgrid, etc.). I personally know of a few Chinese who have mislead society/govt on their birth origins. Also, Zeihan is clearly wrong about which countries are the worst fertility rates. The worst country in the world is South Korea who has a fertility rate of 0.8, which is about 1/3rd of the replacement rate, they are shrinking by 2/3rds in the next 30-40 years. What Zeihan said about China is actually more applicable to South Korea. In 20 years, South Korea's military will shrink by 2/3rds. Meanwhile North Korea more than double the birth rate and is actively trying to increase their birth rate (now that they know they could beat South Korea in 25 to 40 years if they just increase their birth rate). So while Japan and South Korea implode (and ripple effects hit the West ontop of Europe's decline), America itself is not one of the best demographics, if you remove the importation of foreigners (and it's debatable whether a 400 million United States of Mexico in 2050 will be as effective as a 250 million America of the 1990's, you can't just replace the entire population and culture and expect that entity to be just as efficient and stable). Already, the mass importation of H1B workers is causing hugely destabilizing effects in the USA, one of which is about to be felt in real estate. San Francisco/Silicon Valley are starting to see home prices decline over 20% in the past 2 months as IT sector started layoffs, and there is a real question if the millions of H1B's, for example Indians, less than 20% of whom had citizenship back in 2008, now over 60% of them have gotten citizenship, are they going to stick around in a 8.5% inflation USA with 2% GDP growth? Or head back to India which has 7.0% inflation and 7.3% growth, yes you read that right. India has less inflation than America. What a joke America is now! I remember many of my indian friends one of their complaints about India when moving to America was how it's economy was unstable with high inflation, but now India has less inflation and more growth/stability than the American economy. So if America lays off 2 million Indian IT workers during a recession, now that they have citizenship they have no reason to stick around and be jobless during an economic slowdown in the USA, when they could take their millions back to India's booming economy and live like kings. The fewer millions who were here in 2008 did not have citizenship yet so they toughed out the storm in order to get citizenship. Same is true of other H1B and other economic migrants. If things here get worse than 2008 levels, then even Illegals may go back to Mexico if the jobs dry up here which would in turn cause rental vacancies to skyrocket. It could be a domino effect. So imagine millions of houses spilling onto the market. Importing tens of millions of people who are economic migrants with no loyalty to the nation, and who could easily return home (they are not slaves, and most have family in their home countries they'd like to go back to see) is a recipe for disaster if we face another Great Recession worse than 2008 (even if it doesn't reach Great Depression levels, if it does, then we're screwed). There can be a domino effect. If a million Indian H1B workers leave, they leave 1 million houses on the market, collapsing real estate dramatically (even 1% of American houses spilling on the market at the same time can lead to a 50% decline in home values if there isn't enough demand). Add onto that fact that many people in houses or apartments may move back in with their parents at a rate never seen before in history, and then if that domino gets too out of hand even the hired help/illegals may decide to bail (and then free up millions of apartments and rental homes, causing rents to plummet). And since most of America's wealth is tied up in their real estate values, it's basically game over for the USA. Meanwhile, in China, if demographics is such a problem, 2 years ago they implemented 3 child policy, and this past year they lifted all population restrictions. Next step will be possibly incentives, but China has noted that incentives didn't work in the west, so they may actually start taxing/punishing unmarried, childless adults. They banned video games except for 1 hour on Saturdays, and then banned boy bands and other male models to masculinize their society and remove unrealistic expectations of women in who they mate with. And now some Chinese provincial governments are starting to mandate attendance at dating events for unmarried young adults. China can deal with this problem because it's not subject to voter backlash like the USA is. It can just mandate away feminism and mandate marriage and births.

This is why mainstream media collapsing and good podcast shows are the old television as knowledge

@@fool9111z Nathan Rich is a CCP shill.

Did you know that most of leonardo's idea's likely came from china

@@laurencew5220 Just no.

@@laurencew5220 Er, no they didn't.

Dude China was already a developed nation when Eurpoe was still living in the middle ages. Europeans did learn most of what they know from the people in the far east and from the Arab's. If you don't know shit about history, it's maybe not such a good idea to post comments. Maybe read a few history books before posting.

@@swissbiggy , everything you know about China being so great in the past was all propagated by Western Communists. Ancient China was all about tribal wars.

Also in top 20 countries with the most population percentage in only one city (2019 a third of population)... so not so spread out.

Yes, that fantastically accurate map.

The map is also irritating me and I am not very good at geography.

Also means that 2/3rds of the population is very spread out. But it seems to me that much of the population increase is immigration, and Auckland is heading to 1/3 Asian, 1/3 Pacific Islander/Maori, and 1/3rd European.

The more secretive they are about the data, the more you should suspect the worst, or even worse than that.

It's even worse in Europe, but not in a raw numbers sense. It's really about who is having kids, and it's...um...not people native to Europe.

@@taylorc2542 It makes no difference to the sustainability of European economies whether they are "native to Europe" or not (if anything, migrant workers tend to be more productive than natives). But if your concern is more "cultural" than anything else (i.e. filtered though a prism of more or less racist assumptions and prejudices), then I suppose it matters quite a lot.

It does make a difference, just ask Ukraine. Russian immigrants who immigrated during Soviet times have now risen up and taken quarter of the country with the help of their home country. Russians didn't become Ukrainian and nor will non Europeans become European.

@@vampireducks1622 You got a source on that claim that says migrant workers are more productive ? Immigration can be a net economic benefit, if its controlled over time. Where you can pick Iranian nuclear scientists which is more productive than average native. But is it comparable to the millions of migrants, with little to no secondary education, dont know the language of which they migrate ? Have to spend alot of money for them to even be productive. Which also is true with natives, but I dont see how you can say they are productive.

what Peter Zeihan says makes a lot of sense to me. If he was just making predictions without any valid reasons, it would be another story. Let me make sure that you understand that predicting the future isn't easy, but if you're using actual data, analyzing it very well, then your predictions may more likely to happen than not. There's nothing easier than being a critic. I think we should nominate you to be the person who breaks all predictions without having to explain why a lot of predictions aren't going to happen. Instead of data, you can use gut feelings. I think that'd be a very interesting channel.

@@JS-vl5gd no sir. I ignore many subjects, and that is the reason why I do not dare to predict catastrophes everywhere without at least taking the time to reason why what I predicted did not happen at all. Not even close. I decline your invitation (or command?) and leave that task to people like yourself, who seem to be very in tune with that kind of wisdom. Have a nice day .

I am Chinese with ALLthe people I know of ALL retired early to give their posts to their kids

Yes I think in the future they will have jobs if they choose! But in recent times they have not generally had to work!

​@@user-co5mp3tm2zbut those people who retired weren't having enough kids.. that's a problem.. that means you're having less youth replace your retiring workers that means you're going to have a diminished GDP.

​@@tobinsarttrading1733they won't have the jobs like they did.. less population means less workforce.. less workforce means diminished gross domestic product.. so one of two things happen.. the growth and the standard of living that the Young generation parents built and grew up with is going to go away.. or in order to maintain that standard of living China is going to have to demand more value extracted out of what they can produce with their shrinking population.

Kind of like here

Well, it’s pretty easy to know that when a nation limits the amount of children you can have and the majority of babies that were born were males, your population will collapse later down the road.

Only 1.4 billion people left. 😂

China produces more corn than the USA.

And more specifically successful young women.

@@AUniqueHandleName444 successful young women and childless aren't mutually exclusive.

And Americans wanting to work for 65 yrs. Like my children and my father working in a coal mine.

@@doomedbook1020 No, but there is a inverse relationship between income levels and number of children for women. And high income levels are also a negative predictor for long term marital success for women as well.

@@pmmw8468 not sure what you mean. Do you mean that working till you're 65 is a problem for industrialized nations?

The Comedy Channel

What is the soil like then?

So how come WA exports so much grain? Another bumper crop this year.

@@UpliftedCapybara i think it's just sand. i live there and basically every is just sand lol. that being said it's a massive state i might be wrong in some areas maybe there is good soil. western australia is geologically very old, so for reasons ive forgotten means we don't have fertile soil.

@@shamicentertainment1262 We have to add trace elements. Farmland all over the world gets fertilized. Perth's coastal plain is mostly sand, but east of the escarpment it is different. More clay in it.

No what he’s talking about is the need for phosphate fertilizer in WA. It’s not that WA doesn’t have soil per se, it’s more that it’s phosphate hungry, and phosphate is in very short supply at present. As to the nature of WA soils, on the coastal plains, they are very sandy but there are generally better loams inland, however the sandy soils with increased humus and organic matter have become incredibly productive. WA’s agricultural production, especially grains has gone through the stratosphere in recent decades from around 7 million tonnes in the 1980’s to over 25 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to minimum till techniques conserving soil moisture and greatly improving soil structures, and far better weed control from glyphosate and post emergent selective weedicide chemicals.

People in China are homeless, unemployed, strung out on Fentanyl, again ?

It actually makes sense. Abortions, young people getting married later, women avoiding pregnancy via contraception- this has consequences

@@BlueBobbinthose are such minor factors, apart from having later marriages. But even that comes down to the massively higher cost of living today, couples cannot afford to raise a child.

yh, there's more i want to listen to :)

I’m not sure long form interviews like this that only present one viewpoint are terribly informative for people who aren’t already familiar with the specific discipline/field being discussed. Especially not when the subject speaks so confidently, making it seem as if their analysis is simply objective fact. It can lead viewers who aren’t familiar with counter-narratives and associated evidence to draw the wrong conclusions.

@@lorrie1397I don't agree. Like his voice and speech

. nod his progression n unique guests ovrtime= a dlght ^

Yeah Chris is very level headed

Can you say manufactured crisis?

Is that a reference to Ukraine Russia? Or where are they being burned?

@@xidaq4998 It's happening all over, but seems that China is getting the brunt of the damage. I believe the issue is the same all over. Standards are lowered to keep food prices competitive. This includes safety devices such as fire suppression systems, not repairing barely functioning equipment and no safety training such as fire drills.

@@orlock20 freaking sad man.

If China can shrink its population enough, the Chinese may well become self-sufficient in food.

😄😄😄😄

@@chriswatson1698 lol do you think they just got by hearsay or sumin?

@@Rosskles In western countries, there are bureaucracies that keep track of people. I doubt that many of the countries in Africa have the institutions that require accurate demographic data.

@@chriswatson1698 Gotcha, see your point now.

It’s cuz he’s a Chad 😂

Population shrinkage isn't a decline. Unless you are a capitalist who wants to gobble up the earth's resources at an ever faster and faster rate.

The Bible knows. Ittl go down like the mouse eutopia experiment.

Not really, if the population decline is steady. It is fine. To build a strong modern military, it is not population but money and cashflow.

I don’t feel bad for the Chinese government they killed millions of girls and now the very thing they wanted to get rid of they realize they need for the survival of the entire country. They made their bed they need to lie in it!

nonsensical theory, almost all rural chinese family have 2-3 children. Years back, most rural chinese families don't actually report their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th child.

Yeah that's really amazing, an algorithm where no variables ever vary.

at 9:27 he says it's difficult getting good information from China - except this guy of course at 12:00 he says that China will have a food collapse - if only you could, instead of starving, say, import food from countries such as Russia or Ukraine. Plenty of countries already do that, and I imagine China has more purchasing power than many of the other food importers. But his conclusion is that China needs to invade India, Vietnam, etc. 12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can not go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally moronic to me. Also, the argument that you need space to grow your population... Palestine is doing a good job of growing their population and population density despite very little land

@ bravado7 It always boggles my mind when people also say Africa is overpopulated.

@@mikecarlton9000 People say the dumbest things. Also, maps are not really accurate in that if you want to turn a ball into a cylinder, you need to shrink locations in the middle (Africa) and expand places on the end (Greenland, Russia, and Antarctica) Africa is the second largest continent in the world. It also has the second largest population in the world.

@@mikecarlton9000it is all relative to the food supply. Did you ever see the Sam Kinison skit about people living in the middle of the desert?

how do you know what he says is true???? you need to take these youtubevids with a lot of salt nowadays.

Should also follow Joe rogan and you have the hole package 👊 Have a great weekend!

Except the black death affected the entire world, every society become drastically different, so its gonna be less Western Renaissance, more American Indian style civilizational collapse

How billion people how many billion and all the Indians starving to death?????????

to the black plague succeded a tremendous economic growth, ressources were plentyful , land was avalable , it happened all over Europe. So maybe some countries will have population collapse, but it might be followed by a new population growth, because who will be left, will have everything at their disposal. We should all do like Japan, buckle up , not try to compensate by population replacement, protect our civilizations. It'll be a transitory crisis.

@@RegalBeagle1776 exactly! This right now is the enlightenment and our future is a long Dark Age.

Rainbow sidewalks

Well worth it. I hadn't heard of Peter until I came across the full episode, and he's now one of the top half dozen people I want to keep up with.

@@haroldfarquad6886 Pretty mind-blowing. As much as I might not like the idea of China becoming the world superpower, if the country collapses there will be a lot of suffering worldwide.

Unfortunately that's a rosier prediction then most leading experts. And that's in a 25 year context. By 2100 China's population is expected to be around 580 million people... unsustainable for a country China's size.

Even more damaging would have been NO one child policy. The draconian methods were probably not necessary, but the Chinese would be like Africa is now, but far worse off, without population control.

Yeah but the plague killed off the elderly, China's going to be majority elderly people which is something else entirely. It will put a huge burden on the few young people so how will they be able to benefit from it?

Plague to renaissance was 200 years though

Here's china's problem. The primary way the country makes money is by making everyone's stuff. A "good" work schedule for the average Chinaman is 6 12's, meaning 6 12 hour days. Well when HALF of the country is retired the only way to pump out more manufacturing goods is either to get more efficient or hire more people. Theoretically they're already efficient AND working their people to the bone BUT they're not having kids. It's obscenely expensive to live in China and every woman remembers how they were treated by the one child policy. Having a small population works well for countries like Japan because they make their money by innovating new technology. China is going to have to get used to the thought of making half of their GDP because they'll only have half their labor pool they have now.

Except that they only wanted boys. Severe shortage of women and with modernization, they aren't in any hurry to marry.

The fertility rate remained high during the plague. The problem is low fertility, not reduced population

The blacks will take over France !

@@joekerr9036 It’s not really the Africans, it’s the Berbers and Arabs of North Africa and the Middle East mainly that are growing at a high birth rate. Shari’a will come to Paris. It’s already in the northern suburbs.

They’ll cause as much disruption as Irish/Italian immigrants to the USA a century ago.

@@sirmount2636 It will be far greater. It could lead to civil war.

@@wattlebough LOL

Robot labor put you out of work. Now you’re broke.

@@rayhill5767 what if the robot allows me to stay in the house as a pet while the AI goes to work

Why would China become poor just because they have less people? When America only had 50 million it was still a wealthy prosperous country. Endless growth is impossible so at some point the population needs to decrease to something more sustainable and stable

@@Montezuma0 the problem is that if they keep having more old people then young the economi will collaps that could mean war and a lot of suffering wich in turn makes the population growth worse. It will propabley be stable again some day but in the mean time it will be brutal for china and probably the world.

@@sabelotoda2 Short term it’s bad but long term it’s more sustainable. You can’t just have unlimited population growth forever. It’s impossible. Better to decrease the population to something more sustainable and then keep the birth rate stable

@@Montezuma0 the idesl is too have a stable population you do that by having a birth rate of 2.1 so that the population dose not shrink but dose not gorw either. That how i took the first coment in the short ther the conditions could get sooo bad that it could lead too nuclear war. In the best sanatio they would have a 2.1 birth rate alredy but they dont have it and who knows how much time will pass before they change it.

There is something you need to take into consideration in the gender imbalance. 1. Materialistic mindset in many women. They want to leverage their beauty for a potential "high value " suitor. For some women it is annual salary and net worth that is set at a minimum number. 2. Independent mindset to want their own money from a career instead of wanting to start a family. 3. Waste of time 16 to 35 are prime child bearing years, but it is spent working to aquire material gain.

Yeah man, he's up there wit Lex and Rogan in content and guest selection. I'm here for it!!! Love the name, Pickler!

Literally has zero effect on the demographics.

@@chasethehorizonx _Literally has zero effect on the demographics._ If a pundit came out talking about US politics today but then referred to the US as a former colony of Portugal, a former monarchy, a homogeneous ethnic population, and backwards technologically, you or I would be taken aback because he was so blatantly wrong about those aspects. Naturally, we'd wonder about the pundit's credentials. Ignorantia veritatis est periculosa.

If someone says something with enough confidence it must be true

@@nathannguyen09 And it works on zombies. Especially on those who believe authorities and are ideologically blinded. That's the beauty of propaganda...

South Africa just dumped tonnes of oranges because of a disagreement with the EU, they're creating these problems on purpose because of EU made a silly new law about temperature in storage

I remember when Rhodesia was the bread basket of sub Saharan Africa and an exporter.

@@kieranh2005 that is sounding suspiciously like heresy old man

@@kieranh2005 it's called Zimbabwe.

I'd like to say he's overplaying it but rumors of China's real function and or lack of function have been in play for decades and have always run really close to what he is saying and have hit most marks sooner than were assumed at the time. So....maybe?

Search for "Peter zeihan and Nathan Rich" and you'll find nathan Rich reacting to Zeihan's videos.

@@thecustodian1023 Zeihen pushes it with how he phrases his arguments, but I think that's a function of his consulting work and trying to grab people's attention when he's giving a keynote. The more people in the West learn about what is and has been going on in China (especially since the pandemic) the more of them come around to his general view of things. I once double-checked his population numbers on China, and they're pretty much in line with what the UN is reporting (I think it's UNESCO?).