BJP will get 200-220 seats, NDA below 272; dictators usually end up in handcuffs or coffins: Finance Minister's husband, the author and economist, Parakala Prabhakar, to Karan Thapar for The Wire.
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The respected author, economist and commentator Parakala Prabhakar, who is also Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s husband, has forecast that the BJP will get between 200-220 seats whilst the NDA will fall below the majority mark. His figure for the NDA could be as low as 255. When asked if the BJP performs as poorly as he expects what future does he see for Narendra Modi, Dr. Parakala said history shows that “almost all dictators end up in handcuffs or coffins”.
In a 35-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Dr. Parakala said he expects to see a non-BJP led and non-NDA led government after June the 5th. In other words, an Opposition alliance.
I do not want to steal Dr. Parakala’s thunder nor do I want to run the risk of misconstruing what he has said or wrongly paraphrasing or précising it. I think you should see this interview for yourself.
Dr. Parakala shared his forecast for each of the states of south India (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka) as well as for practically all the states of north and east India. He speaks individually about UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Haryana and Delhi. He also speaks individually about Maharashtra, Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat and collectively the North East.
To sum up what he says (but you must see the interview for the details) Dr. Parakala believes the BJP could lose between 80-95 seats in north India and up to a further 15 seats in south India. If you take the average figure of 87 for north India that means the BJP could lose up to 102 seats compared to the 303 it won in 2019.
This is why Dr. Parakala says he expects the BJP to win between 200-220 seats whilst the NDA will fall below a majority, perhaps by a significant margin.
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