Value Investing Will BEAT THE MARKET, Especially From Now Onward

Рет қаралды 14,367

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

I firmly believe value investing is they way to go in order to accumulate wealth over time. The market has its cycles, we have been enjoying a 42 year bull market but given the risk and reward out there, I feel value investing is the way to go for the next 42 years. Yes, maybe the market will do another 25% this year, but that is not investing.
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
sven-carlin-research-platform...
Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform...
I am also a book author:
Modern Value Investing book:
amzn.to/2lvfH3t
The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
www.interactivebrokers.ie/mkt...
0:00 Beating The Market
1:16 Index Funds vs. Investing
6:35 Market Risk

Пікірлер: 194

@steventaylor6027 24 күн бұрын

There is no reason to think that dividend yield will ever return to its historical average of 5.5%. Stock buybacks were illegal for much of the time in your chart; now that they are legal the dividend yield will trend towards zero as stock buyback are a much more tax efficient way to return profits to investors. Indeed, this is what we see happening today

@NiekVink 23 күн бұрын

Valid point.

@mikeknox4540 22 күн бұрын

this is a very good point. of course other metrics of valuation are also quite extreme (shiller PE, buffet indicator etc.). you can argue why each deserves to be above its long run average, but at some point you also have to consider that maybe valuations in the US are stretched, and long term returns will be low. I agree with Sven that long term S&P 500 is not the place to be!

@hansschmidt8292 24 күн бұрын

Dividend yields and cash flows are two different things. One if not the most important reason that the dividend yield of the S&P is low is the dominant position of the ’magnificent 7‘, their focus is on growing their businesses and not on paying dividends.

@richullingfivefivefive1745 24 күн бұрын

Also increased focus on share buybacks instead of dividends

@hansschmidt8292 24 күн бұрын

@@richullingfivefivefive1745 Yes and with the low interest rates companies were not under pressure to increase dividend yields. If interest rates stay higher in the next years this will also increase the pressure on companies to increase dividend yields.

@Spura83 24 күн бұрын

I think the large shift down in average dividend yield is mostly caused by shift of most companies to using stock buybacks instead of dividend yields in the last 30 years.

@droghtak 22 күн бұрын

With these valuations companies can't give good dividends. A company priced 30x earnings can only give 3% dividend if decides to distribute everything... Which would be pointless since that valuation must imply grow and to achieve that grow the company needs to reinvest in the business! My point: everything boils down to valuation, and good capital allocation (buybacks at these valuations are stupid as well)

@sebastiaanfischer9612 24 күн бұрын

Appreciate you’re great work and research!

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

I appreciate that!

@JimMcNutty 24 күн бұрын

P/E expansion has nothing to do with the fed. It’s because margins are so much higher than they use to be. This isn’t a bunch of companies with single digit margins. These are companies with huge margins.

@pongop 24 күн бұрын

Thank you for another great lesson!

@fmg4537 24 күн бұрын

Subscriber to your investing platform. Love the content. Keep up the great value investing Sven. Much appreciated, From Canada🇨🇦

@marcod886 24 күн бұрын

Sven, let's face it... your value investing history is a success story, but my feeling is that what you do probably does not fit many (if not most) of us. Not everybody has enough time, discipline, savings and knowledge to manage the risks related to your strategy. I personally prefer to humbly recognize my limits and to admit my “mediocrity” if that preserves me from taking risks I cannot deal with. Is investing in index funds the alternative? Well, at least with index funds I can completely eliminate the company specific risk and I can drastically reduce the volatility of my portfolio, which are the two main factors leading many “average” (or “mediocre”) retail investors like me to money loss.

@johnnyvegas4583 24 күн бұрын

Sven I love your passion for value investing. I am like you, value investor for 20 years, the difference is you are smarter and put in more work than I. Even my lazy results did all right, beat market half the time, lost to it the other half. Now I’m big into bonds partially because my portfolio is large and retirement is 5-7 years away and like you I see the market as overpriced. You are right though the value investments still exist!

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

Well said!

@brianleavenger9569 24 күн бұрын

so about half the years you got lucky and beat it. and the other half you didn’t get lucky w

@viktordupont203 24 күн бұрын

Great videos! But What are your thoughts on firms going more towards sbb instead of dividends? The change in distribution method Will obviously Make dividend yields lower compared to distribution yield. Thanks in advance

@Tyrese-jf2ij 13 күн бұрын

Thank you Sven, one of the most important videos you have ever created, if you get the point out of the video! Thanks!!

@danguee1 21 күн бұрын

3:16 your long-term average dividend yield was only "normal" until about 1955. The average in the last quarter of a century looks more like 1.7%. Thinking we'll go back to those early-mid-20C golden years looks like pie in the sky to me. Also: you seem to think that dividend yields somehow "caused" the crashes. Whereas, in reality, they are mainly just other sides of the coin from each other - dividend yield's will appear to be poor in peak markets but that's just a function of steady dividends at a time of high valuations making the divi yield look like it's "falling". Sure, high valuations in themselves are a problem for me - but that's just because I expect valuations to revert to normal trajectory - both upwards (after crashes) and downwards (after peaks) - over time. Having said all that - I do hope that that value begins to take it's historical/cyclical place in the bigger value vs growth cycle in time ie the next decade or two. In the last 20 years, value has generally been the wrong bet by quite a margin.

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

Perfectly articulated by you. He is far too dogmatic. He refuses to accept that he is just wrong here. That's one of the biggest problems in value today..they are hyper dogmatic. They completely ignore GARP or momentum based stocks, look down at them as trash. How can he truly justify underperforming the market by 4% for over 6 years? What value does his advice or news letter even hold to anyone, if by following it, they are bound to lose money. Furthermore he also seems to think that in a market correction, value stocks won't drop aswell..weird. They absolutely will drop. If he truly expects a crash and reversion of dividend yields..then he should sell all stocks and hold cash in a treasury bill or something. Idk why he can't understand that stock buybacks have become the norm over div yields for over a decade now. Infact even Peter Lynch alluded to this happening, all the way in 1987, in his book, One up on Wallstreet.

@willnitschke 18 күн бұрын

@@MARKCRASTO While you make many excellent points, qualifications are called for. A lot of us don't invest in US stocks because we don't want added currency risk on top of all the other risks. Only the US has really seen a lot of momentum driven gains. Most the rest of the world has been treading side-ways or in a very narrow band, anyway, since COVID. Everything goes down when markets correct, but solid businesses that pay good dividends will continue to pay those good dividends regardless, and they will bounce back faster than the shit businesses which were really only momentum driven. You need to distinguish between return and risk adjusted return. They are not the same thing. Example, Facebook lost about 70% of its value only a year or two ago. Now it's at record highs again. Maybe next year it will lose 70% of its value again. There is no guarantee it will return to record highs again, however. A value stock might be slashed 30% and come down to a PE of 5 during a correction. But the probability it won't return to its former valuation is almost zero, given a year or two. (I'm talking about blue chips here, not small caps).

@jepadelmonton4349 24 күн бұрын

Great video Dr. Sven Carlin!

@mohamadsaleh779 24 күн бұрын

I am doing value investing but I think that I should take a position in SPY, other indexes and possibly a couple of the mag 7. At the same time, keep some cash to buy stocks if market crashes. Any thoughts on that?

@sonne7091 12 күн бұрын

I could not agree more. I am so happy to be in single stocks and in Control of the investment😎 Excellent to hear you

@rduras 20 күн бұрын

There's passive investing and then there is real imvesting. 😃 Value investing is my choice as well.

@markuss.5872 24 күн бұрын

Hi Sven, currently buybacks seem to be the thing to do instead of paying dividends - I guess it is hard to dig out data, BUT it would really add value to see a combined yield of buybacks and dividends; its development over time and current overall shareholder returns... Thanks for your efforts!

@mrx2062 24 күн бұрын

Can it be that compared to the past because of taxes and buybacks were not allowed, today just less capital is returned via dividends but preferably by buybacks (due to tax reasons) ?

@MasonGardner-mv9du 23 күн бұрын

I agree! Your right Sven.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

Thanks!

@SergiMedina Күн бұрын

I agree, investing in a ETF or index may be good for some, but not for everybody, not at this quite dangerous point. With a little bit of knowledge, patience and time it's not that hard to beat the market by taking advantage of some opportunities. Thanks!

@kqh123 24 күн бұрын

but if I destroy the market, where will I invest?? 0:30

@krasimirkinov 20 күн бұрын

You are crushing it 👊. Average people will get average (mediocre) results but we should always strive for more.

@hiphophead8053 6 күн бұрын

Yes average people will get average results s&p 500 returning 9% a year, but value investors on the other hand will underperform as usual lol

@MahmoudAhmed-oq2dn 23 күн бұрын

Can you please make a video about value ETFs, maybe a review of them. I am a subscriber to the philosphy, but not good at picking single stocks

@AnyangU 24 күн бұрын

Thanks again for another interesting video. I totally agree with value investing. I guess it says something about my risk tolerance but I think some combination of ETFs and individual stocks is better for me. You have your core ETF(s). And then you have your conviction stocks. When you feel strongly about a stock/business, because you believe in the business, see strong fundamentals, see value there, it makes total sense to want to invest in it. Sometimes I wonder what the market would look like if 100% of all investors just invested in S&P 500 ETFs? I guess we would only have 500 businesses. But, more so, what would their valuations be? What would investment become? What would returns be like?

@pongop 24 күн бұрын

Yes, I agree for me too. Core-Satellite strategy. Best of both words for those who don't want to be 100% funds or 100% individual stocks. .

@patrickshanghai2064 23 күн бұрын

some true truths. thx Sven.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks!

@jorgefitnessroad8302 24 күн бұрын

A lot of people fail to understand that the stock market keeps going up on margin, wich if it gets real expensive due to interest rates, then and there if that margin goes out, we will learn the true market value. Same goes for real estate, here in Portugal rates went up, and prices went up, not many buying prices still going up, other than inventory i just dont get it, people keep waiting for the rates to drop, what if they dont drop?

@parrottrader4712 24 күн бұрын

Love to see an episode covering Metal Commodities; such as Silver, Copper, Gold, etc. Super Cycle in metals has begun??

@ed2023bc 23 күн бұрын

Many people want to get "market returns" forgetting that in order to get those returns they have to buy at ALL times for decades. Including the WORST times when everyone will be in panic sell. That's the key. I don't believe that those people will be buying then. So, the REAL returns they will get by buying at all highs and selling when SPY is falling will be close to 0. Based on that, I think most people will be better off just saving money in bank account. At least they will be no panic selling there. Thanks for another video. Lots of good points.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks!

@carefree85a 21 күн бұрын

thoughts on lululemon right now as it approaches 52 week low? Fundamentals look good. Curious to see what Q1 says.

@Value-Investing 20 күн бұрын

it is a tough business.

@muruganvelsamy3291 22 күн бұрын

I am watching your videos and I am a value investor too, I like your ideas, I too read Mungers book and continue to read value investing books. I am not worried about meeting market and just to make good returns over the time. Keep it up mate! we will survive and may be will beat the market in the long run.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

we will keep it up!

@lesleyjohnson8488 24 күн бұрын

Don’t worry, Sven. Some of us get it. That’s why we watch and subscribe. I’ve been avoiding most U.S. stocks the past few months and sold the few etfs that I owned as the market kept getting hotter. I’ve been looking at cheap indexes in other countries and individual stocks with a long runway. Keeping my head down before the earthquake. There is also a cool etf that is long vol that I really like right now. ❤

@TwoUpOnWallStreet 18 күн бұрын

"If you are a Bogglehead, what are you watching here?" Lol, that's a nice way to end the video.

@miellamborghini7003 20 күн бұрын

If you read the comments i find it so amazing for Sven to not doubt himself! Keep going Sven! your research is great.

@Value-Investing 20 күн бұрын

Thanks, will do!

@askerzie 24 күн бұрын

I do not have a professional financial education, but I have been watching investing courses as well as your videos and also some other people that focus on value investing. I do have a job that takes time and also i believe investing in my health and my professional education, so it also takes tike. I usually read some business news during weekdays and do couple hours of research on the weekends. I have started investing in autumn of 2020 and i am not only down ,when the market is up, but I am down over 35%. Of course, someone else might say that i am just dumb and they surely will outperform the market or at least dont lose money, and it very well might be true, however i also wanted to share my experience that not everyone is getting positive ROI despite putting effort and time into it.

@lesleyjohnson8488 24 күн бұрын

Lots of people talking about stock buybacks on here. Listen, we like stock buybacks, but remember that they can basically burn capital if a company has a big sbb plan during a bull market. Tesla and Apple were buying back stocks in 2021 when their stock prices were at all time highs relative to fcf. That money evaporated in 2022/23. At least with dividends there is a little less hubris from the company and management cannot inflate the price in the short term. Buffett only does buybacks of Berkshire when the price is low, and he doesn’t make ‘promises’ to investors as to how much he will spend. That’s the difference.

@anderson6379 22 күн бұрын

Thanks Sven, always the much needed voice of sanity. RIP Charlie Munger

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

RIP Charlie!

@Akulafamily-rf1sx 24 күн бұрын

Hi Sven, Thank you for your knowledge sharing about value investing. I was impressed by your insights on Apple stock in 2016 and started following you. I request you to cover Indian stocks as I see India grow like China in next 10-20 years and would like to avail the opportunity this time.

@massafelipe8063 24 күн бұрын

Allways consider who has a vested interest in bashing index funds. Allways insist on transparency and ask yourself some basic questions. As a tax expert myself I say that active investor must beat not only an index, but also tax and fee enviroment, also, sunk time has its value. For my country, active investor should outperform an index fund by at least 3% p/a to break even (index fund return+tax treatment+fees+hassle)

@danguee1 21 күн бұрын

Well said. For me personally, there is an adjustment to your formula: I don't regard research into investment - including numerical analysis - as a hassle. But rather as interesting and a bit of a hobby and I wouldn't be upset if active investment actually costs me a small degree of return - especially if I feel my portfolio is more stable in downturns as a result (so a slight minus or neutral in the formula). And tax treatment is different in different countries. In my country, I don't get any tax benefit from an index tracker vs active investing (so that's a zero in the formula).

@danguee1 21 күн бұрын

But, yes, Sven and others are often selling courses or programmes or mentoring or paid access to their analysis.

@massafelipe8063 21 күн бұрын

@@danguee1 And that's completely fine. I don't doubt Sven's expertise, what I dont like is his tendency to downplay index funds which have on average brought best results even compared to a vast majority of active funds (SPIVA reports). Also, his predictions a couple of years ago about index funds don't hold for now since the returns were much higher than predicted based on e.yield and e.growth. In my country there is a huge tax advantage for holding accumulating index funds, as is in many EU countries. As you said, It depends. Regarding hassle, I too like reading and watching videos about stocks, by hassle I mean liquidity, tax admin and reporting issues (depending on jurisdiction ofc). Example, tax admin hassle for holding foreign stocks (say apple, msft etc) often warrants hiring an accountant, it's rather complicated and it costs, it takes time and nerves.

@ussul6524 24 күн бұрын

ok and what is your exit strategy? let say I want to buy apartment/house in few years?

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

that is a game I am not playing, impossible to know what will happen to real estate or to the stock market! The money invested in stocks is not the money you need!

@Steve-nb9kg 24 күн бұрын

There are index funds that trade at much lower valuations - VBR a small cap value index PE is 14.3. Without the techs the market is about fairly valued, but finding value picks can still outperform this.

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

yes, but that is then the higher range for value :-)

@thetjt 21 күн бұрын

Just a thought but isn't the problem with value focused etf's that when the value stocks rise they are removed from index well before they reach high valuations? My own investing philosophy has been thus far to buy cheap index funds that have declined/crashed recently - but only ones that have had rather good long term growth before the last decline.

@beepbeepnj2658 24 күн бұрын

FSPHX mutual fund 15% annual rate of return every decade since 1981 inception. FMAGX 15 % annual rate of return since 1963 inception, buy and hold don't trade, no skills.

@linegoesup-tl1hq 20 күн бұрын

trying to understand what you are saying. So if someone is putting aside a lump sum from their paycheck , what should they be doing at this moment in time, should they be sitting on the money and waiting for the dip, or should they be looking for undervalued industries that are primed for the future and/or stable longterm businesses that would survive a comet?

@marcod886 19 күн бұрын

I guess Sven will tell you "buy stocks with good fundamentals and with a good business", unfortunately this strategy will not work for most of us, as we do not have enough knowledge, patience and money for that.

@willnitschke 18 күн бұрын

@@marcod886 That's true. If you're not taking management of your own money seriously enough to treat it like a 2nd job, then value investing or any sort of investing that isn't dollar-cost-averaging into index ETF's is going to be a bad idea.

@rayswag2660 23 күн бұрын

It is a major fault to compare the current s&p dividend yield to the old time. The market is driven by magnificent 7, and they have low divided yield. Majority of the Money is returned to investors by buyback, and not by dividends.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

He just doesn't want to accept it.

@steventaylor6027 24 күн бұрын

Sven In 2014, did you predict that the market would beat value investing over the next decade? If not, why would you think you’ll be right for this coming decade when you were wrong about the last decade?

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

Exactly. He's talking like a cult leader, rather than a rational investor

@ViliStegne 23 күн бұрын

Hi Sven! Would be interesting to see if tyres industry can fit into value investing as I believe Nokian Tyres could be just that. I think market oversold this stock when Russia invaded Ukraine and they lost quite big factory there (they had to shot it down) and also Russian market. But as they build new factory in Romania and this factory will go into production mode later this year I think they could recover pretty well. They also pay nice dividend, so I just wonder if....

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

no competitive advantage.

@baffinsansterre 24 күн бұрын

Can we expect S&P 500 cies to increase dividend?

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

For sure over time, but not that much!

@gazoinked3546 24 күн бұрын

One thing I’ve never understood as a up and coming value investor is the percentage upside of the portfolio after initial investments are made. After about a year or so my portfolio is just now returning some 6%, waiting longer would generate higher returns I would imagine, correct?

@johnnyvegas4583 24 күн бұрын

If you buy a stock undervalued then you might either wait until it reaches fair value or even higher, it varies per value investor and varies per investment.

@thetjt 21 күн бұрын

The problem with value investing is that it probably requires lots of patience since one is buying stuff which lacks momentum (otherwise it wouldn't be cheap), so it may take time for one's picks to lift off. But I do cheap index funds so what do I know...

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

There are no gaurantees. Who's to say you have picked truly great companies? Most great companies are already valued high and rise on momentum, despite high PE valuations.

@johnristheanswer 24 күн бұрын

Indexing was first promoted well before the 40 year " recent boom " , so were based on higher rates from the past ( pre 1970s ) when future lower rates were yet unknown and have still worked out great. So it's not ' just ' about low rates. Ps . We had high rates in the 80s and 90s too.

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

yes, but declining rates pushed valuations higher - put a PE ratio of 10 on current earnings

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing That environment applied to value investors as well. If value investing underperforms for a generation and more in a decades long "easing" it is not very good is it? Buffett handled the Fed easing just fine. Buffett is not a "value" investor - he is a "Buffett investor". Michael Jordan is not an "NBA player" he is Michael Jordan. Buffett himself endorses indexing and has been unable to teach anyone to reproduce his "value/Buffett" results - not even Ted and Todd whom he hired as his stock picking successors at BRK.A

@salemcool111 23 күн бұрын

please do a video on Corning (GLW)

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for suggesting!

@ZeroEngaged 24 күн бұрын

We all want more! Thats why we like and subscribe. =)

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

:-)

@jasonlim4512 24 күн бұрын

i believe at one point Berkshire was buying S&P ETF. but definitely the company wealth comes from value investing rather than index.

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

3:50 Sven, all the great runs you mentioned were led by momentum leaders, mostly from the tech sector. You have completely ignored and even laughed off these stocks for having insane valuations. I really feel you need to reconsider how you perceive value. Div yeilds for example may never recover, as stock buybacks are now the norm. How the market oercieves value too may have changed, and more efficient markets and greater access to information probably means that fewer great companies will be undervalued. The only undervalued companies may be okayish or below average conpanies..that are undervalued for a reason.

@johnpatrick4391 20 күн бұрын

I believe that Parex Resources trading on the TSX would be of interest to you for an analysis

@davidsanchezmolina9788 3 күн бұрын

1.3% dividend yield, but what about repurchase of shares? The sum would bring us to around 3% augmented dividend yield right now?

@Value-Investing 3 күн бұрын

repurchases should increase dividend growth, that isn't happening, thus repurchases are being made at too exuberant prices which leads to value destruction - kzfaq.info/get/bejne/mbWjoK6Wx72whH0.html

@basti1993x 24 күн бұрын

What does 32x = 17% mean?

@thetjt 21 күн бұрын

32 times the original capital... 17% average yearly growth of portfolio.

@azulsimmons1040 24 күн бұрын

Can most nations even afford higher interest rates? The plan the last 44 years seems to have been crash, lower interest rates, lower them a bit, crash, drop interest rates. Will this be a continued pattern during the next crash?

@tobiasazarias4158 22 күн бұрын

Sven would Please Please make a video about how the top 6 stocks on the SP500 are what has been pushing the index up and elaborate how their valuation are also up there. 😢😢😢😢

@tobiasazarias4158 21 күн бұрын

❤️🇧🇷🇺🇸

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

Exactly, all the big market swings are driven by those market leaders, not by his undervalued, low momentum picks that have given him 9% CAGR in 6 long years.

@user-gf5wm7bv6g 24 күн бұрын

Hey Sven, let’s just thank the academics teaching everyone that markets are efficient. That’s one of the reason why market is inefficient and savvy investors can enjoy good compounding opportunities. 😉 I commend you for your performance, making a 17% annual return is an astounding achievement.

@tsonez 24 күн бұрын

Great answers video. My thoughts...This channel has focus on alpha which requires obtaining an "edge" over the market. Without being specific about it, I think you've educated in the past in various ways how to try find an edge (which I am very grateful). But recently videos have been focusing on topics like macro, forecasts and stock picks that are quite unrelated to edge (or thinking differently)... Anyway, thank you for the content. You do great work!

@durrer9038 12 сағат бұрын

I hold both, stocks and ETFs. There are also other ETFs than the S&P500. Isn't it crazy how ETF and S&P500 are starting to be used as synonyms?

@mariusbagd 24 күн бұрын

Is it just me, or has Sven started to repeat himself? I have already seen that graph with the S&P 500 dividend yield a few times on this channel. One question: if the market crashes, how would value investing save you? I mean, your portfolio will crash too (more or less). I believe the profit is made when you buy low during the crash period.

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

Exactly. He has become a dogmatic preacher, and not a rational investor. He refuses to accept that Div yeilds are possibly obsolete, compared to stock buybacks. Peter Lynch has been talking about buybacks being more efficient, since 1987. He's conparing himself to Buffet, who has outperformed him by magnitudes, despite having a portfolio a million times bigger than his, while still making better returns.

@rraych1132 24 күн бұрын

Can you discuss Chinese equities? Seems undervalued relative to the rest of the world with good opportunities for us small retail investors.

@thetjt 21 күн бұрын

Sven has some. Michael Burry has some... I don't dare to pick individual stocks but playing it "safe" instead so I bought some MSCI China etf... well, quite a lot actually.

@AlexSuperTramp- 24 күн бұрын

Curious why you don't show any portion of your portfolio? Its easy to talk!

@AlexSuperTramp- 24 күн бұрын

This video is unlike how you I remember you a few years ago. I remember you used to make videos encouraging long term investing. Now you're saying to time the market, claiming we are in a 40 year (!!!) bull market and pretending S&P is the only index on the planet. Dang if I had a dollar for every YT who said the market is going to crash 75% while not showing a single dollar of their investments

@Hedgeflexlfz 24 күн бұрын

@@AlexSuperTramp-yup

@TheScaryGermanGuy 24 күн бұрын

I'm not sure that you can compare old S&P 500 PE ratios to the current ones just like that. Passive investing was not there in the 1970s. It would be interesting to know how much of the current S&P 500 ownership is covered by index funds.

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@paolovita1720 24 күн бұрын

Making the case that the market now deserves a higher valuation multiple because the cheap and broad diversification allowed by passive investing has reduced the risk in equities, is the same as making the case that expected market returns need to be lower than realized market returns.

@user-bt9cm7ze4c 24 күн бұрын

@@paolovita1720 I remember watching the movie The Big Short and the banks were bunching a bunch of shit loans into one big holding and getting an A rating because it was diversified. LOL. Just a bunch of piles of shit all piled into a bigger pile of shit and all of a sudden it's good shit. LMAO

@simonebruschi9793 23 күн бұрын

You'll probably do ok Sven. But the platform fee eats 2-10% of what people (even not avarage people) invest every year. So even if you are a genius, there is still that margin of risk that I struggle to justify

@marcod886 23 күн бұрын

Trading platforms are made to turn people into addicted gambler paying a lot of fees. One should operate as few as possible to avoid this risk. Single stock picking will inevitably make you pay a lot of fees why you need many stocks to achieve a sufficient diversification of your portfolio, while buying and holding just one single global index fund will enable you to get a decently diversified portfolio with one shot, without wasting a lot of money due to continuously buying and selling stocks.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

there are people on the platform where it is 0,000005 of their wealth per year. Plus, if 500 is 10% of one's portfolio, why are you looking for investing - invest in yourself and make money!

@simonebruschi9793 22 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investingnot sure where you got that 500usd portfolio reference.. Anyway, im doing well thank you Sven. Currently investing more than 99% percent of investors. Here I'm just talking numbers and yours are a bit weak. Btw, hey you youtube user! If 500 usd was 0.000005% of the money you invested in the stock market every year, there is 100% chance that you don't need to watch this video because you are a trilioner

@johnc4789 24 күн бұрын

Showing that S&P500 dividends has dropped as a percentage is misleading when the absolute dollar dividends has increased significantly for the last 13 years (and before the great recession). Value investing for many people is to have an increasing income stream without touching the principal.

@lesleyjohnson8488 24 күн бұрын

The absolute dollar denominated in real value has declined relative to inflation too, don’t forget ;). Think about what else has happened in the last 13 years. Home values have more than doubled, etc. Wages and prices have all increased substantially, at a rate far higher than the ‘income stream’ from investments. Also, remember that whatever initial principal you had is now worth less.

@johnc4789 24 күн бұрын

@@lesleyjohnson8488 I understand the inflation part, yet it appears the VOO dividend has risen over 200% in absolute dollars since 2010. Still misleading to show that dividends had a large drop as a percentage.

@davidedeltoro4117 24 күн бұрын

I'm with you Sven, i only hope that it would not need a worldwide dramatic crash to make us right!

@thomaskismul8541 24 күн бұрын

But Sven, base case for owning index is simple. You just extrapolate interest rates for the next 40 years and they Will be about minus 15% in 2064

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

hahahahaha

@lesleyjohnson8488 24 күн бұрын

😂😂😂

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

Everyone, including Buffet and indexers and value investors had the SAME environment in regards to the FED easing over the last 40 years. Buffett and indexing did just fine.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@ahmadalhusaini4677 23 күн бұрын

Sven what will happen to the S&P 500 if US printed more money and Piled more debt and more countries lost faith in the dollar and started selling their US bonds and inflation in the US got out of control ? Will stocks keep going up with other commodities? This Scenario is also expected as more central banks are selling US bonds and buying gold

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

that will happen, maybe slower economic growth, some issues but nothing terrible if well managed

@DS-ls2jm 15 күн бұрын

The main job of a steward of other people’s assets is to manage risk and protect capital.” -Howard Marks

@aman101112 23 күн бұрын

I doubt if anytime in history the idea of index fund was so bought in as it is today. Which should imply that it is time that it stops working :) Investing has become Fed watching. Trade based on how a bureaucrat rubs his nose. A bureaucrat who has proven himself to know nothing really. Everything he has done while in office has been a surprise to him.....from the treasury blow up in 2019 to pandemic response, to transitory inflation to inflation is subsiding. Who knows how many more times he will put his foot in his mouth. Sven I like your channel.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks!

@unktzor 24 күн бұрын

I stand 99% behind the whole message and all but the very small investment I did in these things "without intrinsic value" made returns something stocks never could. But this is safe and solid no matter what happens!

@nIcO1740NiCo 24 күн бұрын

Well no one says you cannot make money with casino (or cryptosino), it is just that you are gambling at that point. With gambling you let other people telling you what your money is worth.

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

@nIcO1740NiCo using probabilities, managing your risks position sizes, studying volumes and chart patterns, and using macro catalysts, can change that from gambling to high stakes trading/investing. The avg BTC buy and hold guy has completely destroyes sven in the past 6 years. Not saying that BTC is agood asset, it's speculative at best..but the returns speak volumes.

@nIcO1740NiCo 19 күн бұрын

@@MARKCRASTO Well yeah, the average lottery winner has also destroyed in performance Sven. We don't care. When you put your money into something that has no intrinsic value, you're gambling. Let's just be clear, crypto, nft, trading and all that, is NOT investing, it is gambling.

@JuanBattaglia45 20 күн бұрын

I try to SLIGHTLY beat the market. I think it's the only way (if there's any way).

@sandysamith7218 24 күн бұрын

+ when the US debt will burst 💥

@himanshuverma31 24 күн бұрын

Buffet made 10x during the crash because he was sitting on mountain of cash. It does not matter where you invest your money if market goes down, value investments will also go down. If you are worried about crash then sit on cash and earn 5 percent like Warren. I really don’t get what you are trying to convey using these videos. A really well aware value investor will always agree that there are always risk with any investment irrespective of how much research someone does. Every value investor trades the known risk with unknown risk. Looks like KZfaq race is getting into your head. I would suggest to take some break and get back to roots of value investing. Hope you feel better soon.

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

He needs to break away from his dogmas. He needs to start looking into GARP stocks and reassess hiw he percieves value. So many Canslim investors that follow momentum are making upwards of 50% annually. Mark minervini made 220% in 2022, Sean Ryan, Dave Ryan, Kristjan Qullamagie, Oliver kell etc. All have made more in one year, than what Sven has in 6 years. Idk how he can justify such low returns.

@himanshuverma31 20 күн бұрын

@@MARKCRASTO What you referring to is gambling, not investing. Sven is going to make a lot of money in long term, I have no doubt about it.

@kampfzerG 5 күн бұрын

Its not about that you can see every person when the tide goes out but more about that you can see who was swimming naked.

@kampfzerG 5 күн бұрын

E.g in a market crash (2020) you could have hold shares from Shell and/or from IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group). Both went south 70% to 80% but one (Shell) has recovered and IAG is still down 60%. In my view it’s not right to say that it doesn’t matter what you are holding just because both get dumped. Its just an Example for making my last statement clear.

@leonkowski7748 24 күн бұрын

Sven goes BANG to all the negative comments 😂

@federicogaretti3667 23 күн бұрын

👍

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

Thanks!

@explorerjlc1743 12 күн бұрын

using PE ratio as the only metric isn't so great. There are also 2 parts to the PE, price AND earnings. You only talk about price... earnings growth could boom due to AI and efficiencies so this could cause a low PE

@Value-Investing 11 күн бұрын

If everyone uses AI, earnings should go down as things will be efficient snd competitive thus better for the customer!

@explorerjlc1743 11 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing not if a select few players dominate, which is often the case with tech. But let’s see!

@Ravencroft81 24 күн бұрын

If there is a black swan event, our value investments will be trown out like a baby with the bathwater. Mastercard and Visa in 2008-2009 are a good example. There was nothing wrong with their fundamentals and they crashed also. Does it really matter what you own when everything gets slaughtered? Buffet sits on mountains of cash to take advantage of dips and crashes. 🤷‍♂️

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

The index is not "average" The index returns more then over 90% of all investors (including Sven) over their accumulation phase and strategies (including "value"). Buffett is the Valedictorian and SPY is the Salutatorian. Everyone else is struggling to maintain pace over their investment lifetime. Ironically, it is Sven who is below "average" while Buffett endorses the best investment for Sven: the S&P500, which has outperformed Sven as Sven pointed out in a prior video (Sven does do a great job of giving "reasons" why the index returned more).

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@teofagalderobinson5596 23 күн бұрын

I would rather make 5% on value businesses that 29% on multiples

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

:-)

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

For how long? 5years, 10yrs, 15 yrs? Are you listening to yourself? You sound more like a dogmatic cultist, rather than a rational investor.

@teofagalderobinson5596 14 күн бұрын

@@MARKCRASTO percentages usually refer to the annual return. And of course it is a conceptual approach, and of course I would like to perform better, the point is that there is no value in multiples growing without the underlying keeping the pace, and that’s risk. I prefer buying a business that grows it’s value 5% a year forever than a business that grows 29% on the price but not on fundamentals.

@josebalvin899 24 күн бұрын

Value beats growth, etfs beat active investors and berkshire beats etfs

@johnmcquaid7524 24 күн бұрын

🥉

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

:-)

@davidkoba 24 күн бұрын

Investing will always be better. Index funds are for people who don’t read 10k’s.

@b.d.1379 24 күн бұрын

Perma bear trying to scare you into buying his subscription, lol. Love it! Perhaps if you post some of your actual investments so we can follow results?

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

thanks for commenting!

@pongop 24 күн бұрын

You're missing out if you aren't watching Sven's content or checking out the free reports on his platform. He has discussed some of his investments before. I don't buy his subscription, but I've learned so much from the dozens or hundreds of hours of free, high quality, educational value investing lessons over the years. Plus, I've learned even more from the reports he shares for free on his platform.

@softy-bf5eg 24 күн бұрын

I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024

@Cammimullens 24 күн бұрын

Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.

@marlisamirabal 24 күн бұрын

I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders

@KarolQasba 24 күн бұрын

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

@marlisamirabal 24 күн бұрын

“Angela Lynn Shilling’’ is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@KarolQasba 24 күн бұрын

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

@sloppyjoehillups 24 күн бұрын

Thoughts on Pfizer?

@cookiejar01 24 күн бұрын

I've beaten the market over the last 8 years despite starting with 0 knowledge and making all the mistakes in the book. I haven't done anything crazy, just a combo of value investing and Buffett/Munger wonderful companies at a fair price. It's given me 13% annually vs 11% for the S&P. This channel has definitely helped me a lot, so thank you, Sven 😊

@dylo9793 24 күн бұрын

Good video Sven, but you must realize there's a confirmation bias in your beliefs if you base them on your personal experience. Munger lost 56% on his Alibaba bet in one of the biggest market bullruns in history and your viewers are in no way superior to Charlie Munger. It would be helpful if you made a video regarding VT or the Total Stock Market index instead of SPY aswell; since VT has a dividend yield of 2.03% which is almost 2x SPY's dividend yield. I combine VT with a small cap value index fund.

@Value-Investing 24 күн бұрын

2%, 1.3%, not a significant different long term.

@nixielee 24 күн бұрын

People have short memories. It's very easy to sit here now and talk about how S&P500 is like magic, but sooner or later that will change.

@mjwmontgomery 18 күн бұрын

You lose your voting rights and the rights to select cash or stock by investing in a fund. Advantage of a fund. Only capital gains, no dividends to be taxed.

@thetruth4829 24 күн бұрын

Guys listen to me not Sven. If you are young, ignore recession, and crash predictions from people like Sven. Hold your index funds! If you find an individual stock you like buy it. Long term you will do well. Always have some cash on the sidelines and take the free 5% interest. If Sven’s prediction of a crash happens, buy the dip

@Hedgeflexlfz 24 күн бұрын

This

@droghtak 22 күн бұрын

When is Sven predicting a recession or a crash?

@user-ol5yb8sj2p 21 күн бұрын

Firstly when did Sven predict a crash or recession? Secondly Sven said in this VERY video that the average person should buy index and they will do well. Stop acting like Sven is advising people to do otherwise.

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

The Buffett advocacy is for the index fund for you Sven. You are, as evidenced by your lack of outperformance vs. the index, part of "most people" that Buffett is referring to. You are not Buffett and you are not generating alpha with your stock picking as you point out in a previous video. The index is for you, should you choose the economically rational choice that Buffett references. You have not been named by Buffett as an exception. The FED did print tons of money. Everyone swam in that same environment: Buffett and The Bogleheads did just fine and between the two Buffett admits that the reproducible strategy is indexing which is what he recommends to everyone he talks to (this is a statement he made on TV to Becky Quick). Ted and Todd: Whom Buffett handpicked, have "performed about in line with the S&P 500" according to a Buffett/Quick interview.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@Aotearoa-NZL 24 күн бұрын

QQQ annual return is 20%, what aboutyour value investing?

@MARKCRASTO 20 күн бұрын

8:18 you're allergic to average, but you've performed annualized 4% below average over 6 years. Dude, you have to chill with your rethoric.

@willnitschke 18 күн бұрын

You missed the point he was making, then.

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

"If you are a Boglehead, what are you watching here?" I like to watch "active"/"value" investors underperform a simple index. It is the apex of behavioral investing voyeurism. I also like to watch Warren Buffett outperform a simple index fund. It is the apex of investing.

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

whatever you say!

@angelcovarrubias3418 22 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing You seem a bit frustrated to answer simple questions on your performance vs. an index when you enjoyed the same FED money-printer that Buffett and Bogle did. There is a possibility that you are more average as an investor then you would care to admit and that the S&P500 is above-average since it outperforms over 90% of active investors including you.

@angelcovarrubias3418 23 күн бұрын

"I firmly believe value investing is they way to go in order to accumulate wealth over time." There are thousands of Boglehead families who are millionaires by following the simple and reproducible strategy of Jack Bogle which is endorsed by Warren Buffett. Where are the thousands of value investing millionaire families and what is the simple and reproducible strategy that they used?

@Value-Investing 22 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing!