Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock Analysis

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Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock Analysis - NASDAQ: WBA

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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

8 ай бұрын

Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock Analysis - NASDAQ: WBA
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Пікірлер: 99

@TimPaddy 8 ай бұрын

I wish more of your analysis videos were like this one. It was truly great to absorb.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

More to come!

@TC-hc8gp 8 ай бұрын

@Value-Investing hey sven why is it companies don't take advantage of negative sentiment as right now with wba if they cut the dividend by half or all together the shares would tank further allowing them to buy back loads of stock extra cheap and then re instate again. Why do most of these companies seem to be so afraid to cut a dividend if its in the interest of the company. I also don't get why companies keep doing buy backs while they have a load of debt surely low interest rates is the perfect time to start clearing up debt since you can eat into the principle more and getting it to more manageable less risky levels for when rates go back up which they inevitably do. Wba long term liability is about 15 times their 5 year average fcf vs CVS which is about 7 times

@kahlilkahlil9172 8 ай бұрын

Love this breakdown compared to ur previous WBA breakdowns, it's more "fundamental" to me, pointing out exactly risk and reward and give explicit opinion on the conclusion from ur own perspective.

@CheesumX 8 ай бұрын

I wish Sven would not just allude to the "low margins" but actually discuss them. Granted, you can find them easily but he could offer some perspective on them, esp. by comparing the margins of competitors. For instance, WBA margins since 2014: gross margins went gradually down from 28% to 19%, operating margins from an average of mid 4s to minus (!) 5 in 2023, profit margin from mid 3s to minus 2 in 2023 and free cash flow margin from mid 3s to minus 2%. In comparison, WBA has somewhat higher gross margins than CVS but lower operating and FCF margins. In other words, CVS is making more net profit with less gross profit (also because they're more diversified and have internal synergies thanks to having acquired an insurance company and offering primary care services notably).

@josephzhang195 8 ай бұрын

This is a wonderful analysis, I found CVS has had the same buyback mistake, when CVS bought back stocks from 2013 to 2017, its price went up and then crashed, CVS then stopped buyback from 2018 to 2021, its price went up again; however management started to buyback again in 2022 and 2023, stock price crashed again... I think CVS should deploy its capital to paydown its debt first. In term of business quality, CVS is much better and WBA's retail locations are spread over to middle west rural area, however CVS is mainly focus on big city area.

@renatob9909 8 ай бұрын

They way you put it Sven, it teaches me it takes a really holistic approach to evaluate a company. So many dots to connect, so much judgment to weight the dots too. I have an idea now how you do it. Thanks a lot for setting the example Sven.

@MiguelMartinezmtzzz 8 ай бұрын

Thanks for all your videos. You are honest when you say KZfaq can give you new members, but at the same time we keep learning, and also you help us to stay away from fomo investments. Kudos to you!

@anderson6379 4 ай бұрын

Thanks for covering. Really interesting demonstration of value destruction via share buybacks

@supaflydann 8 ай бұрын

Nice one! Alibaba with a forward PE of around 7 is another worth highlighting

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@supaflydann 8 ай бұрын

@Value-Investing don't patronize me 🤣

@GordonGekko98 8 ай бұрын

Risk reward is pretty good in the short term, next 3 years they can probably get back on track and it could be a double up from 20

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

could happen!

@jespermadsen8528 8 ай бұрын

Thanks Sven. Great analysis.

@flashpadxxx 8 ай бұрын

Paul from everything Money was praising Walgreens to heaven over a year ago.. After that the stock lost over 45% ..

@morten170 8 ай бұрын

Poul is a moron. He dont read up or follow companies.

@azulsimmons1040 8 ай бұрын

I invested in Walgreens. They are a dumpster fire of a company in a business that seems to be dying. I order my medications mail order. I don't care who I do it with as long as the price is right and the service is reasonable.

@alanwsh4138 Ай бұрын

Time for an update on WBA I think! Thanks Sven :)

@rickgraham7641 Ай бұрын

It's a POS. Update complete.

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

ah, retail...

@siggiAg86 8 ай бұрын

I kinda like this kind of analysis! a bit different analysis but I really like this approach- more qualitative approach I think, right ?

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

just an analysis on the factors that I think matter in this case,

@kalvaxus 8 ай бұрын

Having 28 billion goodwill is such a red flag

@deejac9065 3 ай бұрын

Agreed. Goodwill in a time where everyone can start an online business is BS. The only real 'goodwill' is returning customers due to a unique mode/treatment.

@maxmalochka2146 8 ай бұрын

great review and insights Sven! thank you for what you do! i know you also love looking at commodities. what is your opinion of natural gas market and UNG in particular?

@YusifRefae 8 ай бұрын

the new CEO recently resigned as well, which was the recent trigger for further decline of shareholder equity. she was a SBUX exec that had this one-stop local clinic/pharmacy vision, integrated health care center, etc etc, if I recall correctly. I guess that plan didn't work out!! :( I was selling puts on WBA around a year ago, but I stopped after I noticed some of the trends you mention here. Too risky as you say!

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@scottenser464 10 күн бұрын

She was hired with a 35 million up front . Then she left another 23 million . But they can't give bonuses to store managers .

@RealityCheckTime 8 ай бұрын

I'd like to know your thought on CVX. The whole oil and gas sector looks like a pretty good deal right now. It is a trap? Great content as usual!

@SergiMedina 8 ай бұрын

Dividend Sensei, I won't listen to them ever again. Recommended TROW at all time highs. Also recommended even TSLA at ATH too! As for WBA, I just can't see how they're gonna grow enough to justify and investment. I invested a bit a few years ago and sold a short while after because I realized this, at least that was my conclusion back then. Thanks!

@gonzalobarrazaillanes3289 Ай бұрын

Very good video Thanks😅 i bought 1000 shares at 12.09 i Guess tomorrow im gonna sell them😂

@Value-Investing Ай бұрын

Update tomorrow!

@emiliankrajci1172 8 ай бұрын

Just to add into puzzle, there is also some insider buys Lot of insiders bought stock around 31.11

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing!

@krysharm 8 ай бұрын

Hey can you make a video of warner bros? Like last year

@MC-kl5mp 8 ай бұрын

I put $1000 into wba at $20. They are too large to go bankrupt.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing! Unlikely they go bust, more likely somebody will take them over!

@ostentatioussavant8215 2 ай бұрын

Bigger retailers than Walgreens have gone bankrupt in the past. With big ones like this it's generally a very slow gradual death. No clue how far Walgreens will fall but full disclosure I did throw $100 on them at just under $16.

@MC-kl5mp 2 ай бұрын

@@ostentatioussavant8215 I put in another $1000 at $16 lol. WAG is very integrated into our health system and the express scripts (demon organization but profitable) CEO at now at the healms. I believe they can turn it around.

@MegaBuyer 8 ай бұрын

As the USA grows more "woke" (and not prosecuting shoplifting), these stores are suffering HUGE shoplifting losses. Many in my area (Sacramento suburb) are closing. Even though I have more than a few bucks in the bank, I like shopping at these discount stores (because I like to save money) - but the theft I personally witness is unbelievable!!

@A_man_not_your_man 8 ай бұрын

Agreed, I'm in Sacramento too and the closing of so many Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid branches due to theft is appalling. At least CVS is considering transitioning to online services go cut down on theft

@TheScaryGermanGuy 8 ай бұрын

What do you mean? You can steal from a shop in the US without any consequences?

@zenastronomy 8 ай бұрын

nothing to do with woke. poor ppl steal. the more poor ppl you create in society. the more ppl you create who steal. this is especially true to gini coefficient of wealth distribution. if 1 man in your village has 90% of the wealth whilst the other 99 of the villagers do all the work. they villagers will wake up and realise their labour is being stolen from them somehow. and start fighting back. if voting, legal and peaceful means doesn't fix thr system. they will move to illegal, and violent means. that's how pressure works.

@thatpointinlife 8 ай бұрын

@@TheScaryGermanGuy, in certain states, yes. In California you can steal up to $950 in merchandise and it's only a misdemeanor offense, but in most larger cities the police won't even respond to the call, so it most often goes completely unpunished. This is the result of California's Prop 47, which was passed by the voters of the state in 2014. It was intended to reduce prison overcrowding in our state, but the consequences of its passing have been disastrous for retailers.

@TheScaryGermanGuy 8 ай бұрын

@@thatpointinlife thanks for the information. That sounds like a motivator for stealing. Unfooking believable.

@trevorroy3594 8 ай бұрын

Sven..... You're awesome.

@jonathankr 8 ай бұрын

5miles is 8km. Its ridiculously far. Who travels 8km for something from a pharmacy? Only if its the only one open at 4am.

@martinithechobit 8 ай бұрын

Thanks I am a bit nervous.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

:-)

@pmcllc1 8 ай бұрын

Not only Walgreens did buy backs a lot of other companies as well destroying cash

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

so many

@mbg9650 8 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing.

@silverhawk7324 8 ай бұрын

Well one of the reasons is the insane amount of stealing from homeless people and bums. I work in a Walgreens in Northern Texas and this is a persistent problem, imagine how bad it would get in places like California.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@mbg9650 8 ай бұрын

Seems to me, CVS diversification business strategy is more sound.

@bernteinar906 8 ай бұрын

Dividend sensei have been shouting buy BATS haha like there is no tomorrow🤩.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

haha

@joeg9829 8 ай бұрын

Bats have 28b in itc unlimited literally half there market cap

@bernteinar906 8 ай бұрын

@@Value-Investing own 4000 shares in BATS myself. 🤑🤑🤑

@InversorTotal 5 ай бұрын

Those buybacks has acomplish their purpose. To allow owners to sell big chunks

@Value-Investing 5 ай бұрын

:-)))

@javasports5348 6 ай бұрын

Doew Alibaba oay dividends?

@Value-Investing 6 ай бұрын

yes, and buybacks

@heshamaboutera1847 8 ай бұрын

if they hadnt use the buybacks in 2017 and 2018 they wouldve had 10 billion they couldve bought back HALF THE COMPANY in 2 quarters

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

yep!

@starbright1458 5 ай бұрын

Hope it will go back to $40

@Value-Investing 5 ай бұрын

if they solve their issues

@senkosirius9730 4 ай бұрын

What a mistake it was to buy this one as a long term dividend play with pharma exposure. Down 40% on it and think im just gonna take the L to save the rest of my capital. Smh

@pazuzuxx Ай бұрын

I hope you sold. It's down 👎 very bad!!! Did you sell? 😬😳

@senkosirius9730 Ай бұрын

@@pazuzuxx yep luckily sold when it was around 16 still

@kevinp5119 8 ай бұрын

WBA: 139 Billion in sales, Negative 3.8 Billion in earnings. Nuff said.

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

that is because of the lawsuit

@boskojovanovic2770 8 ай бұрын

WBA has too much hair on it

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

yes, but then again it is where it is because everybody thinks that way :-)))

@Fath-gx9mk 8 ай бұрын

It would be better to listen to transcripts , not read them. When someone is bullshiting is much easier to hear it from his tone of voice rather than read it

@Value-Investing 8 ай бұрын

not really as they are paid actors, to me, reading gives me the necessary calm to understand better whether it is bullshit or not.

@davidkoba 8 ай бұрын

Wallgreens looks like a Warren Buffet cigarette butt stock. It needs a larger margin of safety right now but if it drops lower it is a buy.

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