Western covardice may lead China to invade Taiwan. Drip feeding weapons and fearing escalation... Russia and China got nukes, so what? Should we give in to every dictators' whims? If anything nukes are useless for defense, and this war will destroys this myth. Lets hope its gone before its too late!

The West is caught between love and desire. They don't want Ukraine to win, and they don't want Russia to lose. Actually, a weak Russia may prove problematic to the West like Afghanistan

TY, Rewatched it and it bears repeating and sharing!

Great analysis as always👍💯

Do you live in Russia? I dont think so. Your just a western propaganda.... nothing new....

SEE: Learned Helplessness

I think that's why fascising the Russian population right now would break Putin's regime. If people would begin to see a goal at the end of the war, they would feel the failures much more deeply, and look for ways to improve their odds of achieving that goal.

We've seen enough take their own lives instead of surrender which is somewhat bizarre and worrying.

Yes - this is the essence of Russian historical philosophy. "Things are terrible, but just roll with it."

You sound like Dostoevsky.

Yikes.

1984

That country’s citizens have been brainwashed for so long. A little revolt would do them some good. They had a revolution about 100 years ago but they choose poorly on who to lead them. The Bolshevik Party and Stalin was not a step in the right direction. They need a more Democratic government if they want to be considered Europeans.

Then it got worse.

Russian spirit they lie just to not start speaking the Truth. Also it is ironic that the russian soldier does not care about a war as long as they are treated well, doesn`t matter if the war is just or unjust, they only worship violence.

russias economy is better now than before the war, just look at the ruble and russia selling oil to china and india and india is selling the russian oil back to europe. this is all bullshit propaganda

I really think ukranians are simply refusing to let russians win they will outlast them

there's only money on their minds, nothing else.

Thank you so much!

I really Hope that Ukraine has more time and resources on it's side but I'm not sure. Russian soldiers May be Lost in their motivation and desperate but they're still going there and doing awful things no matter what. That's all for Putin. He doesn't Need motivated soldiers. The less morally noble they are the Better they can be used.

@@untje Not "voluntarily" you can't go to any other country from the occupied territories

❤

That's genocide. Hence, the ICC arrest warrant.

I've been following this, and where do I find the evidence? Are they orphans? I've seen some Ukrainian mothers going to get their children back from "holiday camps" and also a few whose children have not been found. Can you direct me to (most of) the 700 000 though: evidence of the route they were taken along?

Ты это сам видел?

When you shoot your own soldiers with machine guns so they can't retreat, it says it all...

It's enough to have 1 out of 10 support it and give them the power to punish or kill the other 9. Doesn't change responsibility though.

Rubbish. Dangerous rubbish. Dangerous and immoral rubbish. Are you responsible for homelessness... poverty... global warming? Why not? Why are others responsible for something that they don't do but you aren't? Or, like Putin, do you like feeling superior to others? You think you're better than others, yes? OK.

@@begr_wiedererkennungswert that is not true with current situation in RF. People support war 50%+. They are either stupid, brainwashed or borderline sociopaths but that is what we have. Reluctantly I am loosing simpathy for them..

The same goes with Trump. Trump is a weak beta, but he has control over the spineless Republican party because 30% of the party are a violent cult and another 30% are passive cult members, that believe and support anything Trump does.

@@gergosoos2870 That is interesting. I believe they tried to invoke the "I was only carrying out my orders" defence at the Nuremburg trials and it did not wash then and it will not wash now.

It has always been about cash. Ask a cynical Russian and they even think Putin, Ukraine and the West are doing some kind of deal. They know it is only money but struggle to see it is only Russian gangsters fighting each other at the pig trough.

This implies the Russian military has ever *not* been a group of gangsters squabbling over cash, land, and assets.

Fabulous video! Vlad has been wrong on almost all of his predictions, but I’m going to keep buying into his propaganda, because it reinforces my beliefs! Never mind the videos on telegram/TikTok showing Russian soldiers singing, playing guitar, laughing, women bringing them clothing and food, dancing around shooting drones down, and just having a good time thwarting Zelenskyy’s weak counteroffensive…. Never mind that, I’m going to listen to this meth head because he saying all the things I want to hear! No, Russians aren’t motivated or anything. Ukraine only bombed the Kerch bridge twice, assassinated Daria Dugina, blew up a café in Saint Petersburg… what can I say? It looks like Russia’s army is about to collapse 😂

Does long covid retard (as in the actual meaning of the word, not the insult) thinking? I should probably look into it, I just thought it was a longer, less severe form of covid...

@@GnosticAtheist it has some effect on the brain yes, most often memory but I wouldnt rule out other stuff

​@@GnosticAtheisthe caught a form of retardation from COVID wow never heard of such a thing poor man hope he gets his functions back at some point.

@@GnosticAtheist YES very severely at some point. some days I have no thoughts or opinions - which to be honest can be quite nice in 2023 LOL Some days I have an incredible clarity of thought because my "present" mind, the bit that deals with the here and now, just goes and I can see the big big picture. I can no longer do even basic maths in my head, I need a calculator. As I say in the OP, I have more of a child like way of looking at the world which is not 100% bad I dont have the automatic assumptions I used to. BUT the most anoing thing is only being able to focus on the idiotic arguments people make, to the point I get genuinely angry at stupid statements and lose all objectivity and fixate on the idiotic thing, this is what Vlad has helped me greatly with. In summary YES my IQ has dropped, it varies from day to day, and its not all bad if yo do the things you can do on the days you can do them - but that would be impossible to fit into a work schedule so a lot of people will be suffering...

@@nearing_the_end You might find my comment to @GnosticAtheist above interesting - I describe my symptoms.

Exactly. Exactly. This is how I rationalised Gulf War II. Governments say there are WMD. So there must be. Because they wouldn't go to war without this good reason... The rest is a very tragic history for the ME and West.

It sure is taking a long time -- The penny to drop.

@@ostwelt yeah I always have to remind myself of that when speaking to people who adimentaly believe their absurd conspiracies yet disregard every institution. They may lack critical thinking, but ontologically there's a legitimate reason so many people distrust the government. Didn't come from nowhere

Well he wasn’t wrong, but he probably wasn’t right in the way he expected.

Ending, not changing.

From bad to worse. Probably not the brightest guy

they will say anything because they are in denial of the real reason ALL of them are going to kill Ukrainians - money!

I wonder if this was the same guy who didnt know how to tie his boot laces. The velcro shoe market in russia must be a goldmine.

This is a very perceptive comment. Would add if one is fatalistic expecting to die in a trench then one does want the certainty that loved ones left behind are going to be properly looked after. Including all these bonus/pension payments promised. If the state starts welching on these promised payments the bargain to die, which always looks one-sided (indeed!), will appear completely off balance.

Thank you!

Except, unlike mainstream media, it is intelligent and insightful and not brought to you by Blackrock or Proctor &Gamble.

​@@sarahrosen4985Too funny 😂

It also seemed as though Prigozhin painted himself in a corner regarding the war in Ukraine. He admitted that it was just a grab for land and money, and that Putin’s accusations against Ukraine and NATO were lies. If by some chance he were able to take control, he would have a hard time continuing the war after saying that. By blaming it all on Shoigu/Gerasimov and the oligarchs, he could have given himself a way to extract Russia from the war without admitting defeat or making himself look weak. (This could even apply to Putin, but would require a lot more mental gymnastics and would only work on the Russian population). Of course, the real reason Prigozhin would have taken this course is to increase his own power and influence by taking over for these officials and oligarchs, and perhaps even Putin himself, depending on how things played out. And that’s the thing with all of these Ruzzian leaders. This war, and Ruzzian foreign policy in general, is about keeping themselves in power and super-rich. While they may actually believe in this “Russian World” pan-Eurasian hypernationalist BS they spew in the media, the fact is that it’s all very much in the service of maintaining their personal power and wealth. The propaganda is what they feed to the Russian people. It makes the Russian people feel a little better about their terrible lives and ignore the massive theft of their nation’s wealth by the ruling class if they get to feel like they’re a part of a big, strong country that “stands up to the West,” so that’s what the ruling class lets them think. Would the Ruzzian ruling class like to restore the USSR’s borders? Sure. But are they going to do it at the cost of a nuclear war that would kill them and destroy their empire, or even a conventional war with NATO that would see them demolished and destroy the illusion that keeps them in power? Hell no. That’s why they try to poke and prod at NATO just enough to give the people at home some red meat, but not enough to elicit a military response. A war with NATO is actually what terrifies them more than anything, except perhaps a revolution.

What Mutiny was that then? Western propoganderists are so funny!🤣🤣

@@bluemarlin8138 Prigozhyn is not the guy you should root for. If he did manage to get the power, he would have militarized russia even more, Wagner has been fighting in this war better than russian regular army, so we would get nothing good out of him getting the power. As an Ukrainian I was rooting for long and bloody civilian war that would have helped on the battlefield back in Ukraine

I remember watching the “coup” with amusement and excitement. My wife asked what’s going on and I explained the situation, giggling at the sorry state of Russian affairs, cheering for the Putin demise. She thought for s moment, then asked: so we’re rooting for the guy leading a group of violent inmates behind multiple global war crimes to take over the government with the largest amount of nuclear warheads? Ok… I promptly stopped cheering.

Not much different than Putin how many people has that evil fk killed

It helped end the Viet Nam war.

Only after they’re able to process what is even happening. Most of them have no clue.

I’ve seen videos of Russian soldiers wounded when Ukrainians storm their trenches just dragging themselves in a dumb attempt to kill the Ukrainians. They are a credit to their ancestors…

@@WitnessmooThe Ruzzian command is probably telling them that they’ll be tortured if they surrender, and shot if they retreat. Japan told its soldiers this this in WWII (oh, the irony), which is partially why not many Japanese soldiers surrendered. Civilians on Okinawa were jumping off cliffs because they had been falsely told that they would be killed or enslaved. It’s not hard to imagine Ruzzia telling people the same sort of lies.

They don't get to see their officers. Russia currently has a famine of junior officers, they are about to commission Cadets before their year end. Senior officers don't show near the front because the Ukrainians have a habit of killing them with HIMARS. Usually en masse. They also get mobbed, there are videos.

Ironically, the Russian manpower shortage that's hampering the war effort and creating the vulnerabilities you've described is part of the reason Putin ordered the war in the first place. More valuable than a land-bridge to Crimea or the resources of the Donbas are the people he hoped to add to Russia's population. But I guess it's a bit like the old joke -- The only people who qualify for a loan are those who don't really need it. Or like the quandary of a man who needs experience to get a job & a job to get experience. Seems like Russia is S.O.L. barring some miracle.

Kinda like when british « intelligence » stated that the Russians would fully run out of missiles in march of last year. Or that their units were forced to storm trenches with shovels…. Like, Jesus christ. The Russians aren’t aren’t the ones getting propagandized the hardest in this war…

It might not go away, but it's very poorly defined. Ukraine might be a boogeyman to the TV-addicted babushka, but as Russian social and economic conditions degrade, people will care a lot more about steady pay, food on the table than, and their own life than the vague claims of Nazis in Kyiv. The framing allows Russia to externalize its political problems for some time, but they will inevitably catch up with the regime. Arguably, they are starting to now

Having to suffer and die for those beliefs is another matter.

They will do whatever the rich guy tells them, just dangle a less evil rich guy in front of them and they will obey.

Not so long ago I watched Gordon's interview with a soldier from Azov and, to put it mildly, the situation and morality on the Ukrainian side is not the same as Vlad describes. "I will consider the war our victory only if Russia falls apart", "I doubt that we will be able to return all our land " and much more. Similar statements were made by one of the GRU officers - "why do we need Donbass?" "This region is filled with Russian separatists and traitors." The general tone of messages changed from last year's successes and from "we will return everything" to "at least something must be returned."

hes safe there, hes the mafia don of st petersburg

This is called "Magical Thinking". Don't forget that Russia has an army which is 6x bigger than Ukraine's. The best we can hope for is a humiliating defeat in a single battle to unseat Putin who is playing the "long game" for very sound reasons!

​@messrsandersonco5985 what is the long game for an old man living on borrowed time?

@messrsandersonco5985 6x bigger - surely you jest. I can assure you Russia doesn't have millions of men to play around with here.

​@@neil__no one can have air superiority in Ukraine with both sides so utterly saturated with anti-air missiles

I read an article by an American advisor that was training UKR troops and his concern was with the soviet mentality present in their command. Fear of consequences for taking independent action, lack of innovation by NCOs and soviet static fighting tactics. They seem to have a talent for learning to use foreign weapon systems and have innovated the use of drones, but their command needs modernization if they are to effectively use combined arms offensives. Underestimating the Russians would be a mistake, as long as they can respond to offensives with masses of artillery and have plenty of cannon fodder to hold trenches even a well equipped UKR army can't punch through them. This may change as more long range systems hit the field and possibly hand the artillery advantage to the UKR, but I don't see the Russian army collapsing on the Crimean land bridge (Tokmak, Mariupol, etc.) before the end of summer. I hope I'm wrong.

Are you from Ukraine?

It appears this way maybe, but what do any of us really know about that? We can only speculate.

The Russian economy has about 1 year before it collapses.

Support has been increasing with time. It's the trend that's important. Keep pushing for more support and then one day.. but yes this conflict will take years either way, earliest war can end is 2024, likely later.

@@ZhovtoBlakytniy When I follow the conversations here in Germany, I feel there is a lot of reservation when it comes to fully comitting to supporting Ukraine. While some arguments have a certain logic, like avoiding escalation with Russia and the conflict increasting I still feel that the current situation represents a deeper problem. The difference of goals some nations have. Germany might be looking at this conflict in a different way then France, Britain or the US. In any case. I often have the feeling that Ukraine gets their weapon systems simply too late. Like what we're seeing now, should have been delivered already 6 months ago. Or the fact that Ukraine is currently performing an offensive, without any kind of air support on their side. Not only does that mean that the conflict will take more time it also means more casualties on the side of Ukraine and maybe even Russia, since they won't retreat so easily and rater fight than move back. I understand that this is a very complex situation. But I feel there is not really a full comittment by NATO and many of the member states.

@@greenl7661 My fear here really is, considering that most of the NATO states are democracies, that political and most important support in our societies will drop to a point where it becomes increasingly more difficult to support Ukraine from a military perspective. Lets face it, supporting Ukraine will cost money, a lot of money. Not just as far as the Equipment goes, but also once the war is over, when ever that will be. And one can hate or criticise this, but when it comes to the finances, a lot of people will reconsider their positions on Ukraine. Even if they want Ukraine to win and see Russia loosing. It might even give a huge opportunity to right-wing politicans in getting elected if they can manage to somehow benefit from it. No nation will be accepting strong economic hardship for supporting Ukraine I fear.

That all sounds tough. Hang in there though :) Thank you for the film reference. Love a film that means something deeper for the audience than just as a plot device.

@@ostwelt Thank you. The one thing I never let slip is my attitude, which remains positive regardless. It’s the key.

It’s interesting that you’d mention prednisone, because I’ve been thinking that Putin’s current appearance reminds me strongly of my former father-in-law, who took prednisone for 25 years. He wound up having most of the side-effects you mentioned, including diabetes, which was ultimately fatal. He was an obnoxious bully who was constantly berating and manipulating his family, and I heartily disliked him, but it was terrible to see him suffer. I cannot imagine having any sympathy for a similarly suffering Putin.

@@rubysilver3299 Thank you for the very kind words. I couldn’t imagine how much more complicated the loss of your dad was because of that dichotomy between loving him as your dad and sort of hating him at the same time. Truth is, my dad was an alcoholic but we reconciled before his death. I still have memories of him breaking through doors to get to me, yet he taught me how to be an engineer. Wtf are we supposed to do with that? Glory to the Ukrainian Heroes!

@@ronoveson2798 he fortunately wasn’t my dad. He was my now ex-husband’s father, and his personality problems may have been aggravated by prednisone, but they were mostly his own, because he passed them on to his son which is why he is now my ex. I sincerely hope that you can find some treatment that will improve your health outlook.

Others have said it’s from an old game called Red Alert, where you’d build up 2 opposing armies to win territory.

Ukraine’s army is a lot stronger than it was at this time last year. Russia has definitely *planned* to use defense in depth to a much greater extent than it did last year. But because Ukraine’s army is much stronger and Russia can’t be seen to lose ground, it’s hollowing out the fortified positions of men in order to launch counterattacks near the front. This is a strategic gamble. It makes the initial stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive much more difficult than they otherwise would be, but it relies on the Ukrainians either giving up or running out of steam. If this doesn’t happen, then the actual fortified lines will be much easier to breach when the Ukrainian army actually reaches them. Ironically, it seems as if Ruzzia is trying to use some NATO-style active defense here. But it doesn’t have the overwhelming air power or tactical prowess that NATO does, nor does it have the numerical advantage.

IIRC nobody of any note ever predicted that the Berlin Wall would collapse - when it did - thereby ending the Cold War. Even as Gorbachev introduced liberalising but destabilising reforms. Simply wasn't on the cards. I hope again that we could get a positive Black Swan event with the collapse of the RU army, especially in UA. 🤞

@@bluemarlin8138 And in which war did NATO use "active defense"?

That wasn’t a preparatory push. Just like in Kherson, they though they would just blitz through to their major objectives in a few days. Instead, they took a week of horrific beating to their shiny new army, and only then retconned it into a « long distance marathon », except this time there’s no large river cutting through the Russians supply lines to eventually make them withdraw.

@@nihluxler1890 And the alternative was? Say to Western backers "oh thanks for the tanks and kit we begged for now we are going to keep them in storage"? Yeah, that works. UA has been invaded. It intends like any other state in such a position to kick the fuckers out. The failure of that assault shows some determination to make do with what they have as well as amplify calls for the kit they don't. Mostly airpower and air defence. Tactically you are right there isn't a major E-W river behind the RU positions. But operationally i.e. ~100km south or more is a major sea. No army likes going backwards with that behind it! Now that seems a long way off but should RU collapse it will thus retreat E & W not south. A fighting withdrawal might occupy the southern cities Melitopol and Mauripol. These would simply be for political expediency of keeping VVP in the game not military sense.

Yeah, concerns that the West is not fully committed to Ukraine's total victory miss this essential point: Ukraine is in the driving seat. Ukraine is not going to give the West any choice in the matter. Backed up by massive popular support in the West.

@DavidOfWhitehills yes, and some "western" voices are very likely to be compromised by Russia. Some of their comments are really sus. There is a reasonable concern for not ending human civilization but Ukraine has been trustworthy with long range weapons and russia has been crazy evil. Give Ukraine more and give them some aircraft. But at the same time... there are so many anti air missiles on the ground now, I don't think aircraft will last long within 30km of the front.

@@DavidOfWhitehills yes this is something I have commented on before, the media are constantly questioning the west's commitment to Ukraine if the war drags on, but all I've seen is a small minority of countries in Europe and small political factions who lack such commitment. Even if Trump won and succeeded in pulling American support, numerous European countries will maintain their commitments. It's their neighborhood after all. NATO isn't officially involved, except in terms of moral support and reinforcing NATO borders. Overall commitment seems pretty rock solid to me.

I personally think that was yesterday's gripe. Macron's recent speech backs them to the hilt. Biden has isolated the isolationist Trump on the UA issue. Schulz and DE have a way to go but ultimately the DE won't want Warsaw calling the foreign policy shots. What Western capitals didn't really want is a RU military defeat that triggers a domestic political crisis descending into chaos. But VVP has shown that he is perfectly capable of organising this himself. Therefore, for the West a quicker and decisive UA win is a smoother path to Moscow transition than a long slow victory that gives all the plotters time to scheme and perhaps even fight it out over access to the nukes.

And what will be the victory of Ukraine for you?

That’s not a bad comparison. A-H really didn’t intend to start a world war. It intended to invade Serbia after the Serbian intelligence service sponsored the terrorist group that assassinated the heir to their throne. Ruzzia-then as now-liked to pretend that it had a right to intervene in any situation where Slavs are involved, and threatened A-H. Then Germany promised A-H protection because it wanted to swipe some of Eastern Europe from Ruzzia and to take more land from France. France encouraged Ruzzia because it wanted to take Alsace-Lorraine back from Germany and avenge the defeat in 1870. The ones doing it for glory were Ruzzia and Germany, and to a lesser extent France. A-H was basically avenging a terrorist attack, and Britain was honoring its alliance with France and preventing Germany from taking over most of Europe. Ruzzia shares at least as much blame as Germany, and probably moreso. Putin is using all this stuff about glory and the “Russian World” for internal consumption and to scare the ill-informed outside of Ruzzia. What he and his cronies really want is to remain in power and keep fleecing the country’s wealth. As Vlad has always said, the Russian people have tacitly agreed to let them do this as long as they make the people feel like they’re part of a big strong country that “stands up to NATO.” While the do believe in this Ruzzian ethnolinguistic nationalist garbage to some extent, it’s mostly a tool to distract the Ruzzian people so they can remain in power. That’s why the Putin regime would never start a shooting war with NATO. Whether it goes nuclear or not, Ruzzia would lose and lose hard. If it went nuclear, they’d be dead. If it didn’t, they’d lose their illusion of strength and be removed from power and maybe dead as well. But if they just keep poking and threatening so as to avoid a military response, then they can keep covering their weakness with propaganda and oppression.

Their defense lines are current holding. Certainly no joke to be tasked with breaking them.

@@rleriche5044 Ahem! ...Bakhmut.

@@DavidOfWhitehills what happened there?

@@rleriche5044Ukraine breached the main defense line around bakhmut so at least that’s what I think he’s referring to but those defense lines are way less fortified than the ones in the south probably because they had less time and surovikin wasn’t in charge when they build those making them even worse

@@sohnnyjilverhand8657 Link to that? I know they made some progress over the last couple of weeks a few miles south.

It did seem that there were significantly more deserters during the harsh winter versus spring/summer, although my opinion is based on extremely limited evidence.