With regards to the red and green buttons, the question depends on how many times you are allowed to press them. If you're only allowed to press them once, then the red one makes the most sense. However, if you can choose once or press them five times then the green one would be the smart choice, because while pressing the red one will get you $500,000, pressing green and only winning once would double that. Also if you are allowed to press them five times but can make a different choice each time your best bet would probably be best to press the green button the first four times, in the red the fifth time only if you haven't won at least once yet.
@OhJodi69 Жыл бұрын
I have no understanding of how pressing the green button (50/50 $1M) has an "expected value of $500k". How is that? The value is either $0 or $1M. There is no chance of getting $500k, so the value can never be $500k.
@noahway13 Жыл бұрын
I agree. It is convoluted. My thinking was, it is 1/10 of a million. So would you take $10 or gamble for $100? And I think it is a sliding scale. Would you take $100 or gamble for $1000? I think most people would gamble for the bigger money up to a point, but most see the $100,000 as a solid win. AND if you were part of a group of 5 people who were all going to take that bet as a team, everyone would go for the million, because if just 1 of you won, you would be ahead of the game.
@kj-dw5zk Жыл бұрын
Expected value is the mathematically "averaged" value . Sure, you can't win exactly 500k. but at a 50/50 chance 1mil times 50% (which is .50) is 500k. The red is 100k time 100% (which is 1) equals 100k.
@Ludak021 Жыл бұрын
@@kj-dw5zk sure, but in this case you either get 0 or a million, the chance is 50% for either. At least that's how the author first presents the choice. Then he changes the rules, adds more choices...I'll go with the posters above - I am too stupid for this.
@peterdecker1247 Жыл бұрын
@@wuharold00 yeah, he explained it pretty much perfectly. You probably aren't wealthy, so the 100k just makes more sense as it has high utility to you.
@sociologynut8033 Жыл бұрын
@@noahway13That's why all Business university curriculums require Quantitative Analysis coursework. Understanding statistical probabilities is lost on the uneducated. Of course you can't understand the concept!
@stuffedgrubs Жыл бұрын
I'm going green. Went in to it with nothing.... Same as my attitude to gambling only take what you are willing to LOSE. No more. Due to it being a "gamble". Look at a bet this way you never lose a bet..... Put lotto on without expecting to win.... As soon as you pay for the ticket money is gone... Anything you win is a bonus....
@Ludak021 Жыл бұрын
House always wins.
@smithmr1 Жыл бұрын
I'd still press the red button.
@RobeonMew Жыл бұрын
guaranteed investment. 50% is still have failure $100k is enough to help earn $1m later too
@xyeB Жыл бұрын
@@RobeonMewthis
@sociologynut8033 Жыл бұрын
It all depends on your financial circumstance. If I have $800,000 saved up, I'm likely to press the green. If I have $800 to my name, I'm more likely to press red.
@ulyssescominghomme Жыл бұрын
I suppose I’d have to ask is it really possible to separate yourself from emotion? You can’t take emotion out of decision making. You can limit it, but it isn’t part of the human experience. You can limit the effects of emotion through advise from others, research etc, but you can’t really nix it entirely.
@bushmanphotos Жыл бұрын
normally I like your videos but in this one you turned a simple concept into porridge
@sociologynut8033 Жыл бұрын
We see. You can't understand statistical analysis. That's what college is for.
@xyeB Жыл бұрын
I’m pressing red button
@Herandro_just_Herandro Жыл бұрын
Wait what? Of course it's the red button for any regular guy. That's $100,000 literally being given to you, no questions asked. But if you're that guy for whom $100,000 doesn't make much of a difference, it's not even a gamble, it's an investment.
@rolfknappmann Жыл бұрын
Will watch later, but if the thumbnail is what's this vid about: Gather family and friends, sign a contract that all earnings will be shared equally, all press green. The more people you have, the more likely it is that close to 50% of all presses will grant the 1 million, so for every ten presses, you'll get an average of 5 million instead of 1 million. I mean, do en Experiment: flip a coin the same amount of times as the amount of family and friends you could do this with. Choose heads or tails, before. Then write down and see how much money you'd get. If everyone did that experiment, the average should be close to 500k per person
@walterengler5709 Жыл бұрын
Why do I have this urge to push both the 100K and 1M 50% chance button at the same time. Oh wait it's because I want to maximize the carnage as my value benefit. So I would get at least 100K with a 50/50 chance for a bonus 1 M. Excellent....
@Ludak021 Жыл бұрын
Wow, wait - if I can press the button twice, I would press the red button twice, it's then worth $200K and the green can still give you $0 twice. I assumed we press the button once therefore $100K wins over a possible $0, for me at least. I used to press the green button btw. No luck. edit: and then you continue to talk about the green button now suddenly not being a binary choice between 1 and 0. It suddenly has 0.5 all the time making my red button choice, with 0.1 value, stupid. I am either stupid (likely) or you changed the rules right after you asked us to make a choice. Then you go further and add the third option of me not taking even the 0.5 of value but instead doing the most moronic thing I could ever do - giving away 0.1 out 0f 0.5 for someone else to take no risk at all and press the button that USED to be binary with giving either 0 or 1. If that person does that for me under those rules and gets a 0, I owe them 0.5, while if I do that I'd get nothing but wouldn't be in debt. I am too stupid for this video. My impression of it is that you keep changing the rules of the game. Or, you just fail to represent what you are trying to say by over complicating things for the sake of having a longer YT video.
@errdaytoker Жыл бұрын
I clicked because the thumbnail looks familiar to me I'm not sure where I've seen it before 🤔
@noeraldinkabam Жыл бұрын
If you have 0 dollars you press red. This is the exactreason the rich get richer. You can take the chance when you already have security. Nobody is gonna give you the red button chance nad the green button likely has a conman behind it but lets pretend there is that option; I would go home with the 100k unless I already have enough money so a wrong gamble won’t hurt.
@kurtisjohnson8916 Жыл бұрын
Do people really weigh the pros and cons of an affair, or is their thought process hijacked by passion/hormones and selfish desires?
@mromatic17 Жыл бұрын
I'll take a sure thing any day of the week plus theres also investing it. Put the 100k in the s&p 500 for 10 years and you have 1 million or better.
@DragonElixion Жыл бұрын
This is not how the problem actually works in reality. We aren't actually getting 500K if we choose the green button. That's a mathematical and statistical potential, not the reality of the person hitting the button.
@meiinuyasha11 ай бұрын
am pressing the Red Button i can make it a million in 5 years
@votelarrysmith Жыл бұрын
It's not 500k. It's 1M or...0.
@dirtycoffee896411 ай бұрын
No Youre looking at this from a pov of privilege which is just a gamble. If i gotta pay bills and 100k guaranteed is looking good right about now, i probably didnt become a statistician, which means this is not a game. Logically not statistically 100k guaranteed is the right answer for everyone who couldnt afford higher edu or didnt come from a financially privileged background.
@greendrummers Жыл бұрын
That isn't about the red or the blue pills is it? I refused to take any pill at all so l don't have myocarditis as a result!!! 😂 People just followed the narrative blindly, l find it such a shame.
@trentstaggerly7455 Жыл бұрын
I am literally dumber having watched this video. PS> I was pretty dumb already.