Australia did their homework, thoroughly analyzing all our players, while we didn't, and their fielding made a difference. Warner alone stopped at least 20 runs in the final. Even though he didn't do much with the bat, his efforts played a big role in Australia's win.

I have a theory: It's not just the weak No.8 that played on the minds of the Indian top 5 batters. It was also the weak No. 6, SKY. Since his debut, SKY has struggled in ODI cricket. In particular, he has struggled in those instances where he had to come in to bat relatively early and build an innings instead of striking from ball one. All the ODI innings that SKY did excel in are ones where he came out to bat in the death and smashed from ball one (Like a T20, his strongest format). So, that was a role given to him - Come in at the death and smash the ball as if playing a T20. But here's the problem: Your No.6 cannot be just a specialist death overs hitter in ODI cricket. I don't know the stats but I'd say that generally it is not uncommon to lose your 4th wicket before the 35-40 over mark in ODI cricket and so the No.6 batter, along with being an explosive hitter must also know how to build an innings if he comes in to bat early- something that SKY hadn't shown nearly enough. That's why, as crazy as it sounds, the reason why the Indian top 5 batters (barring Rohit) were extra cautious after the Pandya injury was not just in order to protect the weak No.8 but also to protect SKY and making sure he does not get exposed by having to come in to bat too early (This also explains Jadeja being sent ahead of SKY in the final - A lot of overs were left)

Jarrod is hands down the most rational guy in the cricket commentary and analysis space in recent years, online or on television.

this finals will be remembered for the ages...we bulidozed all the teams to reach the finals and aussies obliterated us in the finals..for me the hero of the finals is cummins...cometh the hour cometh the man...the way he captained the side was a management lesson in itself...he prepared so meticulously for each and every batter of our sude...he was so on point in executing the plans..he didnt have a mid off and didnt concede a single drive in his spell..it takes a lion heart to lead a team in the middle of 1 lakh crowd who can boo you out for even the slightest of fumbles..hats off to australia and pat cummins...this should be the special world cup out of those 6 cups in their cabinet

Bloody love Evan Gulbis, the ultimate utility man, love that you've named this trend after him.

As an Indian now a naturalised Aussie, I think the difference in mindset to handle competitive events has developed from childhood. In India you try to use nerves in competitive situations, like scramble to cover the syllabus and individuals try outperform. Aussies like to relax, have fun and hunt as a pack, from childhood they are exposed to these situations in home, school, playgrounds, outdoor activities..

it's crazy how deep McDonald and Cummins' bowling strategy was when they talked about it after the tournament. They pretty much called their shots for each wicket the day before. They said the danger man wasn't Hitman, Wasn't Gill, Wasn't King Kohli, it was Shreyas Iyer, and Pat got his man first ball of his spell. that knocked India's flow out, and let the middle innings chokehold to close on KL Rahul.

Only India could lose the final. In this tournament, India was like Australia from the 03 world cup but unlike Australia, they failed to win when it mattered. Maybe it's the psychological barrier that teams like India, NZ, and SA have to overcome when it comes to finals

One thing that should be mentioned is that Rohit stated after the toss that if he had won it, he would have batted first anyway. So even India won the toss, they would have batted first and had the same outcome. And remember, India was 80/3 after 10.2 overs, and Australia were 47/3 after 7 overs. Australia was way better in the field than India and easily saved 30 to 40 runs.

This is really academic stuff. Aussies may wane down at the stands, but they are full of brilliant cricketing minds. Great going.

Man all this time and for us this still hurts. Congrats Australia but well played Team India and specially Rohit for making us believe❤

Jarrod, your ability to find stories in cricket statistics is not just impressive, it's inspiring. Your skill in weaving narratives from numbers and drawing connections across different matches and eras is a masterclass in data analytics. As someone in the data science space in retail, I find immense value in your approach. It's a powerful reminder of the importance of contextual analytics and storytelling in data science. Your work transcends cricket, offering lessons that are applicable and highly beneficial. Thank you for the inspiration and lessons your analysis provides.

After listening to this, I just felt that this final was actually a great game of Chess!

1983 wcup win was possible ,withinl lot of allrounders like Kapil dev ,Amarnath ,Roger Binny ,Madan lal etc. 2011 wcup was possible ,with the help of power packed batters at no 5 ,6 ,7. India in 2023 ,lacked in allrounder dept and also established power hitters at 5,6,7.

Still nursing my wounds from this... the T20 series win was basically no consolation at all. I guess whether one thinks India choked or not comes down to what one thinks choking means. In my book, everybody suddenly becoming indefensibly defensive, massively more so than at any previous time in the tournament, is a kind of choke. It's not the same kind of choke as 2019 vs NZ where the top order collapsed horrifically, but it is still a choke. I'm still proud of how India played this tournament, and I think there's no question they were the best team, but I have to hand it to Australia: they show up on the big day. No matter what has happened in the lead-up, Australia is THE last team anybody wants to face in a final.

Happy to see Jarrod coming around to the Siraj mistake. In the scoreboard you seemed to brush it off and actually credited it as an attacking move. I thought it was a blink first moment, defensive at it highest. Rohit in essence was panicking from the get go messed up the whole innings. Please do a video on SA semi. Thought everyone (incl. JK) got lost on the 2nd innings. However, as SAcan the game was gone 1hr in. The second innings was just throwing the kitchen sink at it. This has also led to "positivity". We had the best chance to make the final.

This has been one of the best analysis that I have seen so far of the final. Every point that you made is actually spot on, I have been saying this since the final that this was a well planned heist executed perfectly by “Cummins 11”. (Pun intended) 😁

As an SA fan I can say that we are no longer chokers! It turns out that everyone who isn’t Australia are chokers! P

Fact is SK yadav has poor record in ODIs and Jadeja at no 7 hasnt done anything significant in batting. Amazed IND doesn't have batters in top 6 ,who have bowling ability. Then we can play four frontline bowlers and a batter at 7.

This isn't analysis This is POETRY ❤

This is the game where we missed Hardik Pandya at number 6 instead of SKY. And he would also give us that 3rd seamer option, which means we could have played Ashwin instead of Siraj.

The pitch definitely helped Austrailia, but India has the firepower to overcome that. It would be criminal to say that Austrailia won just because of pitch and undermine the brilliant ground fielding and tactical execution Aussie have put up. Aussie came well prepared tatctically and India didn't adapt well to the situation. This is not as painful as 2003.

Class research man, its so fascinating to see such depth planning and execution.

18:08 "One of the best odi team to not lift the world cup " 💔Also, the CT 2017 team was best , we had 5 all rounders in that team Yuvi, kedar , hardik , jaddu & ashwin.

Sounds like a Titanic-like investigation, a grandeur stage but ended in tragedy. 😢 Wish you were part of the Indian team management. Kudos to your work.

This is magnificent analysis . Absolutely brilliant. Wish I would have found your channel sooner

Sending jadeja at 6 was a big blunder... 1) it made KL rahul less confident as he is batting with another defensive batter 2) made jadeja completely useless like siraj was made useless in the 2nd innings 3) it made SKY fully exposed as then he knew that he had no batters left after the next wicket (WHICH explains some fans question that why was he giving strike to tailenders... Coz he is naturally a no. 3/4 player in t20s and domestic and top-middle order batters usually have no idea how to strike rotate with tailenders... To make it worse shardul was also not there to help him rotate strike) - yes even if u send sky at no. 6 and jadeja at 7 as usual... It still wouldnt have guaranteed a big score... But atleast a big hope for it... By choosing the defensive option india was going to get low score no matter what.. But if they would have sent sky at 6, first that would have not signalled australia that they are on our heads.. And 2nd it would have left the door opens that sky might take the charge early and let rahul feel safe to blast later with jadeja as sky would have knew that i have jadeja at my back... Afterall criticise sky as much as u want.. U cant deny that he is still a world class player with huge experience in domestic he had a half century with kl rahul in an odi against aus.. He had an amazing 49 against england on a tricky pitch too... So there was a hope that he would have kept the RR going on if he would have sent to 6... And if the thing is that management didnt trusted sky which also can be the case... Then why they even chose sky at first place... Should have went with ishan who has indeed saved india from collapse once against pak... I will definitely not buy the case that sanju would have done any better at that situation

Marvellous analysis. Covered every point.

Aussies is so expectional, what they didin the field so unbelievekbke, fieldings at veey depth, it just incrdible....❤

Jarrod, I would really like a Cricket Iceberg video from you. I think it will be interesting. And also I hope you might consider doing a tier list in the future, covering cricketers, venues, and more.

Thank goodness!! For a moment, I though the Evan Gulbis "choke" effect was something done during coitus!!

One point to note is that India played all its matches against good/non-sub continent teams on slow pitches, Aus, NZ, SA, and Eng. The only time they got into trouble was when England bowled them out for 220 odd then of course Eng batted and no one thought with a good bowling line-up India could get into trouble again. Slow pitches had worked in India's favour during the entire tournament until they didn't. Also, winning the toss and making the right call is one thing but being able to execute your plans with such discipline and grit is another. So Australia deserves all the credit in the world. Even in the second inning, they threw India off by attacking from ball one. The entire tournament, no batting line-up had tried blowing everything out of the park from ball one while Bumrah and Shami were balling, something that factored in Rohit not giving the ball to Siraj because he could not afford another 15-20 run over in the powerplay.

Awesome in-depth analysis. India could not handle the pressure that’s the bottom line. Australia were the 3rd or 4th best team in the tournament but they were the best in handling and assessing pressure situations, which is why they won against Afghanistan, South Africa and India.

What an analysis. Thanks for the video.

Yes, sadly, one of Virat or Rahul (not necessarily both), getting out early in their innings might have greatly helped Team India. The loss of Shreyas Iyer's wicket was a critical blow for India that day - not spoken about much and it's simply one of those things that happens suddenly and changes outcomes.

I disagree with the premise. Story would have been very different if Aussies batted first. A lineup of Siraj, Bumrah and Shami would have been hard to handle. We are saying this in hindsight, remember the disastrous changes SL made(If any change had to be made I'd have dropped SKY for Ashwin.) Mistakes I counted with the Indian effort: 1. Obsession with individual records in the dressing room. This WC seemed more about Virat crossing Sachin than the cup itself. All that criticism about slowing down for personal milestones came true. 2. Peaking too early. The group match with SA was the pinnacle of Indian performance. The last two matches should have seen some changes. 3. Jaddu, SKY, lower order and replacements should have had a run though in the last two group matches. 4. Crowd management was lacking. This should be the last instance that the silence of our crowd should be weaponised against our own team. On ground commentator is not enough. Fan groups must organise to keep the decibels. 5. Should have handed Siraj the new ball and asked the bowlers to keep it simple, we bled too many extras in the first 10 overs.

Players who plays for own reputation and records shouldn't play knock out games. Because they always have fear of failure

What a great piece of analysis

So is that why Dhoni always has all rounder heavy teams ? 2011: Yuvraj, Raina, Yusuf and Harbhajan can bat if required. 2007: Yuvraj, Irfan and Joginder and all his title-winning CSK teams: Jadeja, Bravo, Watson, Morkel in the past and Jadeja, Moin, Dube currently. Maybe he understood this mentality of Indian players before anyone.

The fact that the Indian team asked for a pitch like the one they got for the final showed their fear of failure and mindset as you rightly point out. A simple flat track would have done the job. They should have trusted their bowling attack in such form would have made the difference and ofcourse fielding....do not underestimate great fielding did make a difference....25 runs saved and brilliant catching converting half chances ..... One thing you can always bring to the table no matter what the stakes is your fielding.... And Aussie fielders propped up that disciplined bowling performance to great heights....

a quality review from a quality reporter, very well said jarrod!

Love that this is still being analysed 😂 C’mon Aussies!! 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆

Travis Head. They had not faced him and did not have a plan for him. Australia had a simple and direct plan. India did not see it. Rohit did not see it. Once at 45 he could have changed his mindset and stayed on. Terrible strategy from the Juggernaut.

India had more talented players but Australia were tactically better when it mattered the most. The field setting, the bowling changes, even bowling the slower bouncer to SKY so he could not hit his trademark shots. They had their plans against every player and good for them they were able to execute all of them perfectly. The lesson from this final is that India needs to be tactically better prepared for knockout games instead of just depending on their talent and trademark shots. Also the middle order needs more attacking players. Back in 2011 we had Dhoni, Yuvraj and Raina, all of whom could play attacking shots on any pitch.

The Netherlands match in Bangalore really exposed India before the semifinals.. the Dutch were batting free flow without any fear of any deadly Indian place attack... In the semifinals NZ almost scared india chasing... India was lackluster and not even close to any greatest ODI team just because they weren't able to keep stamina or energy continuously in the rear end of the tournament.

Was waiting when u will rise this point!

Spot on 👌 My opinion is that despite winning 10 matches in a row India in such a dominant fashion India still had 3 major weaknesses going into the final 1-Only playing with 7 batsman 2-Only playing with 5 bowlers 3-Hardik pandya’s injury which really damaged the balance of the team And in the final Australia had a plan that is to pick a couple of wickets in the power play and then get both Surya and Jadeja in as early as possible (both haven’t performed that well with the bat) Then make inroads into indias long tail As far as their bowling was concerned playing with just 5 bowlers wasn’t going to help either..

Great analysis!!!

Excellent, excellent, detailed impartial analysis. Everything this man says is 100% correct. The teams were man for man evenly matched. The fielding was the crucial difference combined with superb tactics by the Australians. Warner close to mjddle age was covering ground like a panther, pouncing on balls. Amazing effort, along with his teammates

Rohit said after the game that he would have chosen to bat anyway. Pat winning the toss was just him calling his shot even more, to show this wasn't a fluke on top of all the other non flukes he got.

4 months later. I finally got some strength to watch his analysis.

Sometimes your great strength (ie Kohli) can be your greatest weakness. A bit like tendukar they can slow down in big matches going after a big personal score that negatively impacts the team due to strike rate

This Anaysis is Documentary Level... If they make an official video about the World Cup of even Finals.. They should hire you

Great and thorough analysis, Jarrod. I think you've exposed the Indian leadership, and perhaps Rohit in particular, for failing to stick to their plans. I wonder whether in Rohit's case this was motivated by wanting to do something matchwinning himself, rather than trusting his players. I imagine he would have a fair ego on him, and perhaps he was stung by Cummins' stealing of the initiative?

Hats off ❤️❤️

As an Indian , it was a heart 💔 moment.However, your video and theory is well presented, i have no option but to agree. I loved the statistical representation.

I think Australia won cause of their mindset...it didn't matter for them if they lost. Meanwhile it was the opposite for India. I saw Mitch Marsh winking at Bumrah after getting out...they were having a fun. On the other hand you could see every Indian batter kicking cursing themselves after getting out.

I always looked forward to reading your Cricinfo articles. Lots of detail in your analysis as always. As it happens, KL Rahul is captaining India in South Africa this month. After watching this video, not feeling very good about that! Anyway, please keep sharing your thoughts!

Hmm genuinely appreciative content keep it up! Hope you have no scarcity of sponser in future

Fielding alone can't win you a game, but weak fielding will definitely make you lose games.

No longer an ICT fan since KL Rahul will be the next captain. It's the cricket celebrity who becomes the captain and not the mindful mentally strong person. Rishabh Pant, we miss you. You showed us what standing up for the team looked like. That BGT trophy was the golden period of Indian cricket, bye now.

Yes.. lot of things went wrong.. but few of those things were byproduct of few others . Who knows result could have been different if India were better on field.. but that was a result of low defending total? Was that in turn a result of India's batting approach?

I agree with all you said. My analysis went through most of you said. I also felt that Indian batters shouldve came down the ground to hit the balls. None, did it. The pitch was slow and no one came down the ground. Defensive or being caution made them stick in their crease in a slow wicket.

Instead of SKY Ash should have been there we would have 6 bowling options as well! Ashwin plays Aussies very well!!

It was all part of Lord Shardul's plan! May his great presence enlighten us🙏.

Bhubaneswar kumar should have been picked ahead of Siraj in the squad. He is excellent with the new ball and a decent batsman. It is a surprise that even Prasidh Krishna was considered ahead of Bhubaneswar Kumar

Good job jarrod

Australia have once again displayed they are a superior Team. who thrive on pressure and always find a way to win when it matters. Its fair to say large part of cricket is Mental, if India cant win big games under pressure they cant be considered the best team, Australia have proven once again why they are !

Beautiful analysis

Glad you said it chokli is the most selfish stats padding player this sport has seen

More vidoes should mention the Stars losing the BBL|08 Final to the Renegades ❤❤

It’s simple Australia outsmarted and out played India, they meticulously analyzed the history of the pitch and conditions so as a result they concluded that batting first was the best option as after the dew arrived it would be easier to bat later. They were incredibly aggressive in the field, they continually rotated the bowlers not allowing India to develop a rhythm and once India were 3 wickets down they restricted the batters to just one 4 in 90 balls. Australia got off to fast start putting enough runs on the board to keep in touch with India’s total at that same time period. Therefore they didn’t panic when they were 3 wickets down, instead they kept calm and Head played aggressively because they knew the pitch would favour them batting wise. They had a plan from the beginning and it worked.

Bro is so underrated on analysis.

Evan Gulbis really being an unexpected guest here lmaoooo

Winviz had the teams 50-50 at the start. The teams were evenly matched, with Australian planning winning the day. India's spinners grossly underperformed.

It's like a war strategy. I must read that article l.

Great analysis, but none of this makes the pain go away.... ye dukh kaahe khatam nahi hota be?

Why ind lost the final: 1. Rohit and Virat not playing long innings. These are big pair of the odi side. Since covid we rarely saw these two guys playing big odi innings like the used to in past decade. We just overhyped both guys especially virat. Rohit playing t20 style innings in odi was not good thing. Also both getting out on small fifties was not job done. Thats not a mark of great player, if you need to win the cup you need to do the tough task, otherwise dont ask for greatness 2. Gill and iyer getting out cheaply. It just stresses the point of how overhyped gill is. He was not doing well in against strong teams. Iyer too did well on wankhede which is his home ground but failed against a strong aussie attack. His weak technique against short balls always creates a confusion in his mind and used very carefully by opponents. 3. Klr playing subpar test innings. Its been a general observation that sr of klr drops down in tense situations, which has been observed in ipl. Batting at a sr of 61 for 100+ ball in cwc final just kills the momentum. Thats a very negative style of batting. Thats not at al a sign of champion batsman who could win you a wc, it doesnt come close too feats which gambhir or yuvi attained in 2011 wc. Klr has been around for long time and has just not been able to do the task important moment. 4. Sending jaddu above sky: it was a big blunder. I dont rate jaddu high in batting in white ball internationals that much. Except the knock in sf against nz in 2019 he has shoned that much, just a bits and piecesplayer rightly said. And i dont think there was a compelling reason to send him above sky. 5. We always blame our batsman but the point to notice our bowling were not able to break partnership between travis head and labuschange. This was similar to not able to take any wicket against eng in 2022 sf of t20 wc. Our bowling just misses the fire sometimes to do the job. Siraj was dud in the wc and seemed off color. 6. Aussies were well prepared than india. The point that players like starc didnt play ipl to prepare for imp tournaments like ashes and wcs focuses that point of dedicatedness of aussie players and management. Bcci is more focused on minting money from ipl and broadcasters. It seemed aussies worked more hard and studied better. They had bowling plan and fielding plan for each of our batsman. The dived and saved so many runs in the field. We lacked this study and fielding efforts. 7. Coaching staff: This point has gone unnoticed for long time. We have had back to back indian coaches for long time which hasnt given a great result in terms of icc trophy. It was gary kirsten of South africa who could help us win a icc trophy. Dravid's coaching style seems preferring sluggish pitches instead of foreign coaches who play fire with fire. I think we should go with some aussie(not like chappel😁)/eng/sa coach who can bring some daredevil approach to game.

Oh good, exactly what I needed! A reminder of 19th November. As much as I love your videos mate, not watching this one. Still too painful

My theories are below: 1. No left-handers in the top order in playing XI. Ishan Kishan who is the Indian batter to score fastest 200 in ODI was left out. 2. Too much reliance on specialists batter/bowler and Hardik. ICT had players like Sachin, Yuvi, Raina,Sewagh who were part-timers and took wickets at crucial junctures. In the current team even in the recent T20 series, there were no part-time bowlers. During 2nd innings finals, the pitch became highway sorts, but out-of-the-box options like part time bowlers could've been there for Rohit to try.

Very well explained! Excellent analysis! Kl and virat was very slow and strike rate was horrible !

No effect, as another guy mentioned, Australia outhomeworked us, we foolishly went ahead with the same playbook and ignored that our bowling was crumbling since Netherlands match

That's a well designed thumbnail!

I am sorry I haven't played single International or List A game but bold statement here we will not win any tournament until we have players like KL, who just play to save the face not to win any match. If he had try to put pressure back on Aus after Shreyas or Virat's wicket there is chance he could have got out, (No boundary in over 10 to 40) he wws supporting Aus plan and they were not fen trying to get him out after a point🥲. If he could have stayed with plan and while wttcking from one end we would have made 200 and lost but this was slow poisnious death. England had shown and said this 100 times with this aggressive mindset you coulf loose one od game and if we had folded on 180-200 in 40 over could have been fine cause we sticked to the attacking mindset but players like KL an jadeja jurst went into shell saying we should save our faces. KL has history of this knocks in IPL T20is and all over the place, point is not he played slow but he could play at par with Rohit or even better since he is in his peak years but choose to play lke Kane Williamson and slower than our designed anchor (Virat Kohli)

It was just the "win the toss, win the match". ODI in India is especially prone to this.

Can someone show this too Virat Kohli and kl Rahul fans lol ... I was feeling the same .. why in the big games we play so defensive... These is Indias problems from many years

"THEY ARE CHOKERS"

Tbh after all the amazing analysis it just wasn't meant to be

I was fine with Shami opening the bowling. He's very experienced and was in red hot form. I was fine with India trying left-right combo by sending Jadeja in to face Zampa. I don't agree with this analysis on these 2 points. But Kohli & Rahul... ugh, created the same mess that made India lose 2019 semi final, and 2021 t20 final. Kohli should retire from white ball cricket. Rahul should retire from all cricket.

Keep aside what happened in the whole match the most important thing is to get your combination right you must have the batting depth to no 8 atleast and all of them should have the guts to bail the team out from any sort of difficult situation if that was happened KL played differently but they know they have nothing left in the tank after three quick wickets if your batting ends on no 5 you will not deserve to win WC bcoz in knock outs your whole team will be tested for sure and that main error was followed by the series of errors in remaining match, this result give one of the most greatest setbacks for Indian Cricket fans and create a void which will never fill

Absolutely agree. Australia thoroughly outsmarted india on a pitch which surely would have been thought of to assist the indian spinners. In hindsight KL could have accelerated a bit more during his stay and SKY played a terrible shot in the given circumstances to hopelessly expose the tail for a better part of the last 3 overs. Having said all this india did fail to a combination of adverse batting conditions and an insipid performance with the ball rather than just one factor

People were right in thinking Ashwin should've played the final. That would've given them more confidence that a shallow batting order can be compensated by a stronger bowling attack.

In the words of the late great T. Pratchett "Million to one chances crop up nine times out of ten"

When statistics meet psychology. Brilliant analysis! Well played, Australia.

Hope you get over that cold soon

Pat Cummins turned into Neil Wagner and Starc suddenly started dropping his balls on good spots: both things that India hadn't expected at all. Add to it a moving ball and a fielding trio of Warner, Labs and Smith letting NOTHING go to the boundary, and you suddenly have an India team too scared to do anything but knock the ball around and hope for the best. The Gulbis effect is interesting though. It definitely makes sense that the team with the weakest tail out of all of the top teams goes into a shell when you take out the no. 8 who can at least hold a bat and replace him with Mohd. Shami

seeing so many reasons forces me to question why did the universe have to fucking collaborate and put everything out of order for us on the one day it mattered

All of this analysis is true, but I will give another reason for the slow going: India was absolutely terrified of repeating 2019 WC Semi and 2017 CT final - where they lost top 3 very cheaply and never recovered.

It comes down to mental toughness compared Yuvraj, Dhoni Raina to KL ,Jadeja and Sky

Finally a brilliant video covering why India lost! Thankyou 😊