It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone is the 15th when the government issue a new batch of Bonds. I have approximately 350k stagnant in my portfolio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
@PhilipMurray251 Жыл бұрын
That’s right! Downturns provide plenty of opportunities for regular people to build wealth from the scratch. However, you may need to get some professional advice from an Investment planner if you need an aggressive return.
@Robertgriffinne Жыл бұрын
In the world of finance, recessions are prime opportunities for wealth creation. When my portfolio suffered a significant loss in April of last year, I realized the need to enlist the expertise of a financial consultant. With her guidance, I have not only recovered from my losses but also generated a profit of 250k. The knowledge and skills I have acquired through this experience have been invaluable in my journey towards financial success.
@Natalieneptune469 Жыл бұрын
Please can you leave the info of your invstment analyst here? I need such luck lol
@Robertgriffinne Жыл бұрын
Kate Elizabeth Amdall She is a genius when it comes to diversifying her holdings. You can verify her identity for yourself by looking her up online. She is well knowledgeable about the financial markets.
@Natalieneptune469 Жыл бұрын
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
@GillerHeston Жыл бұрын
What bothers me about this situation is the fact that the news and media are all going about a recession which is understandable due to the war and pandemic but still the same media still publish articles about folks in the same economy pulling off hefty 6figure profit(Averg. 200k in barely 8weeks) in this downtrend how is that possible?
@eloign7147 Жыл бұрын
I've come to realize both bear and bull market provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself.
@rogerwheelers4322 Жыл бұрын
Indeed, you are correct! On the advantageous aspect, economic downturns offers numerous prospects for ordinary individuals to create wealth from the ground up. Nevertheless, seeking guidance from an investment planner might be necessary if you desire a more assertive return.
@joshbarney114 Жыл бұрын
In the world of finance, rece-ssions are prime opportunities for wealth creation. When my port-folio suffered a significant loss in April of last year, I realized the need to enlist the expertise of a financial consultant. With her guidance, I have not only recovered from my losses but also generated a profit of 250k. The knowledge and skills I have acquired through this experience have been inval-uable in my journey towards financial success.
@FabioOdelega876 Жыл бұрын
@@joshbarney114I've been thinking of going that route has been holding on to a bunch of stocks that keep tanking and I don't know if to keep holding or just dump them, think your Inv-coach could guide me with portfolio restructuring.
@joshbarney114 Жыл бұрын
@@FabioOdelega876 I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, and "Colleen Janie Towe" remains the most resourceful thus far. Her strategy proves profitable, and sustainable both in a bull & bear market. Most likely, her details can be found on the net, so you can confirm yourself.
@MIchaelGuzman737 Жыл бұрын
With markets falling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing a sharp hike in interest rates, while Treasury yields are rising rapidly, meaning more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I take advantage of the current market volatility, I'm still at a crossroads deciding whether to liquidate my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
@84gaynor Жыл бұрын
Focus on two main goals. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and reap profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns. I recommend that you seek advice from a CFP or an investment advisor.
@TruckeeFam Жыл бұрын
Right, I've been in constant touch with a CFP since the pandemic. You know these days it's really easy to buy into trending stock's, but the task is determining when to hold or sell . My advisėr decides entry and exit commands on my portfølio, I've accrued over $550k from an initially stagnant reserve of $80k.
@kashkat987 Жыл бұрын
@@TruckeeFam I'm glad I came across this discussion. If you don't mind, could you tell me how to contact your financial advisor?
@TruckeeFam Жыл бұрын
No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with "JILL MARIE CARROLL". Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
@kashkat987 Жыл бұрын
@@TruckeeFam This is useful information; I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
@kimyoung8414 Жыл бұрын
Investors have just turned back the clock on the Fed’s tightening campaign and cast aside the Fed fears that ruled them for 15 months. It just gets very daunting to me when I’m sitting there looking at charts and trying to determine if i’m right or wrong! I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $300K for sometime now, I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
@alexyoung3126 Жыл бұрын
First of all, You could lose it all and you could win it all. It goes both ways. Secondly, what works for A may not necessarily work for B and you should not be a bandwagon investor. A good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge.
@joesphcu8975 Жыл бұрын
Facts!! Since the market became extremely volatile and pressure increased (I should be retiring in 17 months), I took the decision to work closely with a financial advisor. It has already been 9 months and counting, and I have made approximately 600K net from all of my holdings.
@lawerencemiller9720 Жыл бұрын
That's impressive, my portfolio have been tanking all year, tried learning new strategies to gain in the current market but all of that flew right over head, please would you mind recommending the advisor you're using
@joesphcu8975 Жыл бұрын
My advisor is “Natalie Marie Tuttle”. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care for supervision. I basically follow her trade pattern and haven’t regretted doing so
@lawerencemiller9720 Жыл бұрын
Looked up her name and her website popped up immediately, interesting stuff so far, about to schedule a session with her.
@Aziz__011 ай бұрын
The system is failing as a result of both government and federal policy. In the next days, the banking crisis would have to be epic and gigantic for the FED to decide not to raise interest rates. This won't happen; an increase and a crash are coming. There will be more negative portfolios this 2nd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
@PhilipMurray25111 ай бұрын
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
@MiikeFaber11 ай бұрын
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markts and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
@yfar56711 ай бұрын
This is striking! could you share info of your advisor, please? i'm in dire need of asset allocation and standing at a crossroads, whether to sell-off or keep holding my positions, my portfolio is retrogressing bad as of late
@MiikeFaber11 ай бұрын
Can't reveal much, but the advisor guiding me is NICOLE DESIREE SIMON. She has gained a good deal of expertise over the past two decades in the financial system and her credentials speak for itself. She's well-grounded and known, shouldn't be a hassle finding her page.
@yfar56711 ай бұрын
Thanks a lot for sharing, I just looked her up and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын
My biggest criticism of his thesis, is there is no scenario at all in which he believes liquidity decreases. He states based on this ‘new normal’ it can only go up. Even though we know this is not historically true.
@LiberatedMind1 Жыл бұрын
Yup.
@peterruh60 Жыл бұрын
That’s wrong. He showed his long term cyclical liquidity cycle in other vids. It declined recently starting in mid 2021 And he called the bottom last fall perfectly
@LiberatedMind1 Жыл бұрын
@@peterruh60 He thinks it can only go up from here. He also thinks FED liquidity is a big driver of the market when it has very little correlation.
@bsetdays6784 Жыл бұрын
No guarantee that the days will be before or after a bear market, also no guarantee that they will be consecutive or at least all in the same couple of months or a year or two. Also “the best” days are during the times with a lot of market volatility, where the market may also go downwards. Please just stop with the “if you miss the X best days in…”
@kaylawood9053 Жыл бұрын
Exactly, such a faulty statistic, maybe you miss the 10 best days but you also miss the slew of bad days wrapped around them.
@selenajack2036 Жыл бұрын
Even the most successful invstors experience losses when the market is weak or when they make choices that don't work out as planned. However, overall invstment ought to significantly improve your net worth; because mine wasn't, I had to work with “Eleanor Annette Eckhaus” who clarified my mistakes and enabled me to make clear progress...
@afriquenegocesarl3642 Жыл бұрын
My life ain't better .. all i got is a mortgage and child support payments thats kicking me hard on the balls . How do i reachout to annette?
@roddywoods8130 Жыл бұрын
insightful Selena.. I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, thanks for sharing
@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын
I love how he explains the liquidity levels plummeting in china are a sign liquidity is about to rise, and how liquidity levels rising elsewhere are also a sign liquidity is about to rise more. Every scenario he gives has the same answer.
@DegenerateSpeculator Жыл бұрын
I like him since he was right about the liquidity crash in 2020, but he is off here. Collateral shortages are persistent
@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын
@@DegenerateSpeculator Yes and the moment the job market contracts faster then inflation, his entire thesis and all his models are invalidated… he even says he assumes that inflation decreases will never be overtaken by job market declines…. Which in a recession is almost always the case that the job market collapses will always exceed drops in inflation
@dianarabbanii2 Жыл бұрын
Heard someone say the best season for a fin.ancial breakthrough is now, I have approximately $250k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
@KO-gu6wp Жыл бұрын
Always exciting to see Michael Howell show up in my feed. Dude is an absolute beast in his field.
@lionheart93 Жыл бұрын
Is he so? Will listen then
@szymonbaranowski8184 Жыл бұрын
the real beast is Werner
@seanobrien7751 Жыл бұрын
This man knows every inch of public financial plumbing. Great guest love his updates!
@aggerleejones200 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for getting him back on your show. I can listen to Michael Howell all day long,
@simrans3675 Жыл бұрын
Bruh, take it easy yo. He shared some very obvious points. A Fin 101 and Econ 101 major could tell ya that. What's your problem bro?
@aggerleejones200 Жыл бұрын
@@simrans3675 yeah, you are totally correct. It would have been super complicated if he said just look at the Fed's balance sheet or bank reserves to measure liquidity... but thank goodness he really dumbed it down. The "shadow" liquidity is so simple I'm sure you can explain to me in a few sentences, correct? Go ahead, bro. help me out and reinforce what I think I heard and help summarize for me.
@simrans3675 Жыл бұрын
@@aggerleejones200 Bruh? You questioning my intelligence? Losing best, if you ask me. I am a big deal life yo. Dawg, I can teach you to hunt but don’t assume you aren’t talking to a big duck chad here - you are.
@aggerleejones200 Жыл бұрын
@@simrans3675 still waiting for you to explain it to me. It's 101 bruh and you have the video to reference. I'll wait bruh... like you said, it's 101.
@simrans3675 Жыл бұрын
@@aggerleejones200 Ok bruhv. It’s late here but will type it for you. Not that hard.
@SB-xm5uw Жыл бұрын
The issue I have with Howell's thesis that the Fed has been targeting a level of reserves is that it is totally unsubstantiated. The Fed doesn't have control over the TGA. The Fed didn't change the parameters of the RRP. The Fed didn't change the rules regarding reserves. The Fed didn't alter its pace of non-reinvestments. Where, please tell me where they've been intentionally supporting reserves.
@Quantitative_Teasing Жыл бұрын
Exactly
@Nernst96 Жыл бұрын
Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
@mcintyre1 Жыл бұрын
Yes, ever since the outbreak, I've been in contact with a CFP. The tough element of investing in hot stocks nowadays is figuring out when to purchase and sell. My adviser picks the entry and exit instructions for my portfolio, which has grown to about $550k from an original beginning reserve of $80k.
@mcintyre1 Жыл бұрын
The stock market is without a doubt the awkward teenager with the most extreme mood swings! I started out with a commentator named “Colleen Rose Mccaffery” Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.
@josephlee4001 Жыл бұрын
My greatest concern is how to recover from all these economic and global troubles and stay afloat especially with the political power tussle going on in US.
@onwugharablessing8264 Жыл бұрын
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
@stevenjuan259 Жыл бұрын
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumors and here says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
@emilysmith5287 Жыл бұрын
I’m in dire need of guidance so i can salvage my portfolio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can I reach this advisor?
@Mathew-bp5bm Жыл бұрын
Having a counselor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is "JACKSON STEN MARSH. who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
@justinscott6855 Жыл бұрын
Found him, I wrote him an email and scheduled a call, hopefully he responds, I plan to start 2023 on a woodnote financially..
@rebeccaartgallary10 ай бұрын
Instead of trying to predict whether or not we’re going into more recession and keep losing your money, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every quarter according to Bloomberg.
@roberttaylor66210 ай бұрын
That’s crazy, I’m just doing everything wrong with my portfolio,25% of my portfolio is in the red and I really don’t know how long I can stomach the losses. I’m beginning to reach a breaking point.
@bleshjjdnit10 ай бұрын
I do feel your pain mate, I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. For me,I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured $30k in value stocks and digital assets,Up 200k so far and pretty sure I'm ready for whatever comes
@VanPelt54u7fcyde5710 ай бұрын
that's actually quite impressive, I could use some Info on your FA, I am looking to make a change on my finances this year as well.
@bleshjjdnit10 ай бұрын
Having an expert is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is "Pamela Helynn Kirchoff” who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
@richardselby5676 Жыл бұрын
Fantastic interview, explains clearly the momentum behind the move. Whilst the Fed rescues the banks (again) I need to hang up my bearish attitude, I just feel kinda dirty going long tho’
@zoeytank2921 Жыл бұрын
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy. The ETF/Equity market keeps swinging.
@hannahdonald9071 Жыл бұрын
@champhallier8468 The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my port-folio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
@graceocean8323 Жыл бұрын
@@hannahdonald9071 I've been looking at comparable opportunities in the current market because I know a lot of people who made fortunes from the Dotcom crash and the 2008 crash. Could this consultant who helps you be of any assistance?
@hannahdonald9071 Жыл бұрын
I've been consulting with SALVATORE FORTUNATO SOFIA, a financial consultant whom I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a Kiyosaki radio interview she was featured on. Since then, she has served as the point of entry and departure for the equities/stocks we have emphasised. A search using her name on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
@peejaydandoy2889 Жыл бұрын
Basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I was really hopeful of my investments this year, but I followed some stock suggestions that didn't go so well, I've been studying the stock market and I realized some investors made millions from the last recession and I was wondering if such success rate could be achieved in this present market.
@AzinwiNeba Жыл бұрын
The market always bounces back. Make sure you are taking the time, and putting yourself in a position, to be able to do so when the timing is right.
@JuneroseCarcina Жыл бұрын
I feel exceptionally lucky I started investing in my early 40s and compounded my income to create more cash flow. I retired with to a 7 figure well-diversified portfolio having exposure to different prolific investments mainly stocks, real estate, precious metals, and high yield dividend funds. ever grateful to Trisha Jean Webb my F.A... keep investing and you will be fine.
@peejaydandoy2889 Жыл бұрын
@@JuneroseCarcina Did a quick web search, she has a pretty decent bio, I wrote her and I'm waiting on her reply.
@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын
His models at 40:43 fall apart if the economy shrinks faster then inflation does. Which in a crisis it often will at some point.
@user-hq9iv4ff2c Жыл бұрын
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
@williamschaefer282 Жыл бұрын
yes, transportation, e-commerce among other sectors are expected to experience growth, but who knows, the market has been a basket of surprises.
@user-hq9iv4ff2c Жыл бұрын
@@williamschaefer282 Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years.
@williamschaefer282 Жыл бұрын
@@user-hq9iv4ff2c True, we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?
@user-hq9iv4ff2c Жыл бұрын
@@williamschaefer282 Having a counsellor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor ASHLEY AIRAGAHI who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
@williamschaefer282 Жыл бұрын
@@user-hq9iv4ff2c Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a session with her. She seems Proficient.
@successisachoice1421 Жыл бұрын
What an informative and insightful interview! A ton of knowledge was dispensed in this 1.5 hr content. it is basically a free masterclass on financial market liquidity. Thank you!
@Nodrinksonthepiano Жыл бұрын
Can you explain to me in simple terms how the fed is pumping liquidity and how to track it?
@Lestaeitari Жыл бұрын
🌹Nadie se vuelve millonario o multimillonario trabajando para otros y dependiendo de ellos, una buena inversión genera millones de dólares y la constancia genera miles de millones*
@GiftOkoye-vo2jz Жыл бұрын
Estuve de acuerdo contigo y creo que el secreto de la estabilidad financiera es tener las ideas de inversión correctas que te permitan ganar más dinero. No sé quién está de acuerdo conmigo, pero de cualquier manera recomiendo bienes raíces o criptomonedas y acciones.
@JoshuaFabric Жыл бұрын
la mayoría de las personas no entienden que vivir una vida sin ingresos pasivos no vale mucho, excepto tratar de pagar deudas y préstamos.
@JesusCalos Жыл бұрын
@@JoshuaFabric¡¡Sí!! Sería más beneficioso y generaría más ganancias si realmente opera con criptomonedas. He estado operando desde la caída, he obtenido muchas ganancias operando.
@MhizAble-zh7gg Жыл бұрын
¿Hablan en serio porque siempre quise intercambiar criptografía, pero siempre estoy confundido con las fluctuaciones en el precio, por qué?
@JoyRaymond-ol2er Жыл бұрын
También trabajo con AFNAN. Su concepto es clave para vencer todas las probabilidades y sobresalir en la forma de productos básicos en línea. ¡Su equipo de gestión es bastante impresionante hasta ahora! Con $5k obtuve una ganancia de más de $30,200
@johnclark7903 Жыл бұрын
current s&p prices are misleading. I think it is more a reflection of accumulation on tech.
@susannnico Жыл бұрын
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you *ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* .
@lailaalfaddil7389 Жыл бұрын
I'm surprised you know her. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
@lailaalfaddil7389 Жыл бұрын
*ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
@michaelb4546 Жыл бұрын
So what this guy is saying is to prepare our anus for the unchecked inflation ahead.
@brendanobrien6943 Жыл бұрын
This is the best in depth analysis of liquidity dynamics I have heard and agree this and the wall of worry dynamic explain this year's market gains. Trading this market requires a comprehensive understanding of the Fed, Treasury, fiscal, economic cycles and market psychology
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@johnsonburgundypants Жыл бұрын
Mike was very generous with his time and sharing his research. Very commendable I learned a great deal.
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤
@AsiaticKlassic Жыл бұрын
Suppressing asset price volatility will lead into explosion in volatility in future. Policy makers turned investors into speculators that we can’t expect income from dividends no more and saving will be punished. Government will tax capital gains even more, so there will be less risk takers in the market at the end. Future of the world looks really poor. Weak men create bad times for real.
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@davidepatti4835 Жыл бұрын
Risk assets have NOT gone up. Only big caps.
@jcgoogle1808 Жыл бұрын
Exactly,.. it's not the stockmarket that's up,.. it's about 8 stocks that are up huge. The rest are flat at best.
@troy8231 Жыл бұрын
Too few “experts” actually understand global liquidity at his level. I guess that’s why self proclaimed “macro liquidity analysts” often defer to Howell as the leading expert.
@jayearl3591 Жыл бұрын
What Michael states here aligns with what Russell Napier has warned about for a few years about government spending overtaking the role of Central Banks. Michael makes it look all so easy to reason about
@somejohndoe3004 Жыл бұрын
Well said ! Other topics Michael and Russell are in agreement I noted would be the interest rates level and the stock market direction both on the long term.
@somejohndoe3004 Жыл бұрын
I would love to hear Michael's take on financial repression, hopefuly we'll get that when he comes back to the show.
@jayearl3591 Жыл бұрын
@@somejohndoe3004 I guess one way to frame it "when have governments been profitable?" Gov Bonds generally underperform in the long term (because repression) relative to stocks
@giantessmaria Жыл бұрын
thanks, this explains A LOT! Wonder why no one confronts Powell on the on the Q&A session on FED day? Also, these would seem to be counter productive to his fight against inflation, no? Kind of like putting out a fire with gasoline!
@victorsperandeo3609 Жыл бұрын
Perhaps the most professional research in the Wall st community. Great work !
@Carol-cb9yu Жыл бұрын
The problem with Michael Howell is that he says so much that I have to watch these long interviews more then once. He ideas are always useful in getting my course of action straight.
@johnanon658 Жыл бұрын
Ima watch it twice for sure
@amarkmanpeters Жыл бұрын
Better than the opposite!
@ficko88 Жыл бұрын
Michael Howell vs. Jeff Snider. Please make it happen Jack.
@AlphaCommission Жыл бұрын
Wonderful analysis by Michael Howell. He's far and above those guests who push weird China theories about race, etc. I'm quite disappointed by some of the hyper partisan and hyper nationalistic guests -- but Michael and so many of your guests are breaths of fresh air in this space. Keep up the good work.
@keystoneskiguy2718 Жыл бұрын
Look, the recent rise in US stocks has been in a handful of AI stocks whos cap weighting gives a distorted positive impact to the indexes.
@dameongeppetto Жыл бұрын
Correct. 7 stocks are moving the market up. The rest are stagnant or slipping.
@Random.Adventures. Жыл бұрын
Great video. Lots of interesting points. Will bookmark this part 44:34 - upsurge in oil prices
@masonsteed7835 Жыл бұрын
Michael is such a great speaker. Even though I have no idea what he’s talking about most of the time, he is still so easy to listen to.
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@simrans3675 Жыл бұрын
Michael is a BEAST - Chad at his thesis; he has been right and I agree with him; we are headed north boyz...get ready
@Psychetwo Жыл бұрын
Thought it was ridiculous to see liquidity and qe. Wasn't going to watch this thinking it would be a crazy guy talking nonsense. Pleasantly surprised. This guy makes a lot of sense! Really enjoyed this guy. Hope to see more of him
@skillz4life360 Жыл бұрын
treasury issuance correlation isn't really paradoxical when you think about the use of them as the most safe and liquid form of collateral. the more treasuries are issued the more potential for balance sheet expansion. and don't forget they are reused and rehypothecated. so yeah you may have spent 500 billion to purchase these treasuries, but now you can lever that up 10x, 20x and create 5 or 10 trillion dollars
@theonlyconstantischange123 Жыл бұрын
Exactly
@omrit2 Жыл бұрын
It depends where the money to purchase them comes from. If from private sector cash reserves then no, it does not lead to balance sheet expansion and liquidity. If from the Fed or if through bank lending, then yes.
@skillz4life360 Жыл бұрын
@@omrit2 it doesn't lead to Fed balance sheet expansion but it has potential to increase commercial balance sheet expansion, it depends what they do with the treasuries. But as we know treasuries are used to expand balance sheets by being used as collateral for loans, so it does correlate. My question yet to be answered is can the Fed, without congressional approval, take part in live treasury auctions. I.e. do bank reserves literally end up in the TGA. And I don't think that they do. Anytime the Fed is expanding their balance sheet they are simply bidding up bad collateral for lenders to recoup their capital from defaults by loans backed by that respective collateral. So whenever they expand their balance sheet (the Fed) that's guaranteeing money destruction because all the debt on top of that collateral is destroyed. I.e. it's an actual monetary contraction. Thought?
@MrSudeepjain Жыл бұрын
You need to get Howell and Danielle Demartino at the same time. Michael says, new liquidity, new bull.. others say, fed is still draining liquidity.
@johanaanderaa4249 Жыл бұрын
Best scientifecaly explenation I have seen for a melt up. Follow the money, as one dude used to say🙂
@ssmaclac2286 Жыл бұрын
Would be great to get Darius' input on this from 42 Macro
@thehungergames8918 Жыл бұрын
Awesome analysis 😃👋
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤
@diamondhands1021 Жыл бұрын
Omg, I remember how everyone hated bulls half a year ago and how many dislikes these videos got, look how many likes we have now, crowd starts agreeing with everything he says and all of a sudden he is a genius, ridiculous!
@TheJohnsonseviltwin Жыл бұрын
The problem is, Michael Howells separation of Fed liquidity, reverse repo and bond issuance is that they all affect market reaction. There's no escaping that the more this happens the less liquidity there will be moving forwards.
@detectiveofmoneypolitics Жыл бұрын
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
@dlukton Жыл бұрын
A lot of good points here. One can disagree with his overall conclusions, but a rational truth-seeker must still consider all of his points. I suspect that Howell is correct in his overall conclusions.... but if not, SOMETHING has to explain the behavior of the stock market over the last 6 months.
@DegenerateSpeculator Жыл бұрын
More bank failures coming despite the new BTFP program. People see the RRP as a sign there is plenty of liquidty left. But what they miss is that pile of cash is not an even representation of the liquidty levels of all market participants
@georgeorwell-il2wz Жыл бұрын
He nearly got it when he touched on the PE ratio, but not quite. I believe the equity markets have adjusted for inflation, in part at least. Unprecedented levels of cheap currency were pumped into a shutdown economy. This should cause depreciation in the currency and inflation. This secular inflation in goods and services results in an eventual increase in revenue and earnings in monetary terms (even if the profit margins don't improve overall). Assuming that the volume of outstanding shares is stable, the EPS should thus increase. If the PE ratio is remain about the same then the P must adjust with the E. If earnings increase in monetary value, the price of equities must increase with it. Now theoretically the DCF model should act as a deflator and discount any increase in earnings from mere secular inflation. Investors don't want to pay for such passive earnings. But secular inflation typically overwhelms this discount in the end, though I'm not entirely sure why. You would think that the threat from higher rates would factor in reducing prices due to default risk etc as well. Not all equities will benefit from this, some will benefit with exaggeration. But overall it seems secular inflation is a net gain for equities. The financial industrial complex doesn't really like talking about this as it would rather promote the increase in earnings and asset prices as a success in these products, rather than a passive benefit from a depreciating currency. This is of course assuming we get a no/soft landing scenario. If a recession does materialise then earnings can fall and thus prices. But unlikely to return to old lows due to overall inflation. I don't think it's speculation or euphoria that's driving equity prices up, it's the wall of worry that they'll never return to the low points again.
@yellowfish555 Жыл бұрын
AI , and the fact that we had 14 years of a bull market. the psychology is very much bull market psychology.
@MahirBuyukyilmaz Жыл бұрын
Magnifique as always. Salute🙏
@martinchew4128 Жыл бұрын
This guy is a god of economics
@jeffsurfanderson Жыл бұрын
The Market's overall are down with only 7 to 10 stocks in deposit does not make this a bullish Market as far as the liquidity it's just money moving from one stock that's going down to another that's going up
@Dr.Dumpnpump Жыл бұрын
Yes… liquidity went up.. temporarily. It’s still in an overall downtrend is likely going lower from here… just like the market.. go figure!
@TangoBinAlsheed Жыл бұрын
NO. STOCKS ONLY GO UP
@LiberatedMind1 Жыл бұрын
Yes, the FED delays crashes and helps out the hedge funds pump up the markets before the big drain, its a temporary gift.
@StanislavKozlovsk Жыл бұрын
Damn this guy is fucking sharp. No idea if he’s right on all of these things since it takes 1 assumption to be wrong for the whole thing to fall apart - but amazing reasoning. What’s his Twitter?
@annunakian8054 Жыл бұрын
Click on title to see info
@johnmcaulay8448 Жыл бұрын
There's no need to swear🤬 I'm joking
@mattg8431 Жыл бұрын
@crossbordercap
@ShirleYangZi11 ай бұрын
Your analysis of financial market trends is very accurate
@daneomegan Жыл бұрын
If the fed earns 1% on its treasuries but pays 2% in RRP where does the delta come from? Is it printed or does the treasury fund it via bond/bill issuance?
@Carutsu Жыл бұрын
from QT or the Treasury takes the hit
@SB-xm5uw Жыл бұрын
@@Carutsu There's no hit. When there's a surplus, the Fed remits to the Tsy. When the Fed is in the red, they don't. They don't have to worry about insolvency.
@CyanAblaze Жыл бұрын
It comes from congress
@beary0418 Жыл бұрын
Michael is a true gem, love to see him and darius go back and forward a bit on a stream
@user-yi3us6hq4x Жыл бұрын
Interview between Michael H and Professor Steve Hanke would be nice to get a more clear picture. Professor Steve is saying that a financial meltdown is baked in the cake
@jhfmackay Жыл бұрын
Wow, did this guy nail it or what. Perfectly articulated
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@Thesebjustseb Жыл бұрын
This is truly invaluable information. It also conveniently confirms my hypothesis. Subscribed.
@s.d.crockett486 Жыл бұрын
Dense interview, I was wondering exactly how to define liquidity. Amazing charts and research. Thank you!
@mariusbuciuman307 Жыл бұрын
I get this thesis but i still think we will see a crash in equities soon
@AddilynTuffin Жыл бұрын
Global stocks headed for their biggest weekly decline in more than three months following a spate of central bank rate hikes that have pushed up bond yields and heightened fears of recession. I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more, apparently there are strategies to 10x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $650k within 2months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.
@ericmendels Жыл бұрын
The strategies are quite meticulous for the typical average person. As a matter of fact, If you're considering growing your portfolio for a successful long-term strategy, you have to seek guidance from a broker or financial advisor who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
@judynewsom1902 Жыл бұрын
I agree, I've been in constant touch with a Investment advisor for approximately 17 months. These days, it's really easy to buy into trending stocks, but the task is determining when to sell or hold. That's where my advisor comes in, to help me with entry and exit points , I've accrued over $337k from an initially stagnant reserve of $148K all within 18 months
@mohican-jx6fx Жыл бұрын
@@judynewsom1902 I’m new to all this, heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up
@judynewsom1902 Жыл бұрын
Sharon Louise Count is my Adviser, She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of profit generation. You can look up her name on the net for her page and reach out. Understands the job perfectly.
@kaylawood9053 Жыл бұрын
This recommendation literally came at the right time. I’m down by $7k in stocks this week alone. It's crazy! I just looked up Sharon online, and researched her accreditation. She seems very proficient,. I wrote her detailing my fin-goals and scheduled a call.
@pqncrypto4421 Жыл бұрын
Best podcast and conversation I’ve seen in a very long time!
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤
@moonshinemagic1771 Жыл бұрын
Excellent interview! Great questions, Jack...and great answers Mike.
@andreashimmelreich32879 ай бұрын
Really love the framework! Liquidity and Inflation as the key driver of price / earnings + Cycs - Defensives as a signal of the market!
@DeFi-Macrodosing Жыл бұрын
What a duo. Thoroughly mind-blowing, once again.
@dr.c7679 Жыл бұрын
Can someone put this man in charge, please?
@davidpate6095 Жыл бұрын
Precious metals should probably catch a bid then?
@bradleyqueen3879 Жыл бұрын
I would assume so.
@nachogonzalezseamoslibres Жыл бұрын
edward stone saw.. en el futuro hablando de la liquidez financiera...Un genio este señor !!
@leroyybrown Жыл бұрын
That’s an excellent Macro lesson and guidance
@dave8212 Жыл бұрын
If it's yellow & quacks it's a duckling not a duck ! 🤔😉 Thanks Guys, brilliant content 👍💛
@Standammit Жыл бұрын
Let me simplify this for you, Just watch the DAILY chart for FAS and FAZ for the last quarter and you will see where the market is going. Put a Linear Regression study on them for clarity.
@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын
Would be interested to know what Jack really thinks about his thesis. Anyone who claims the stock markets are forward looking (like the guest did) always has me worried because this is not historically true at all. Seems to be a bit of tunnel vision going on here.
@johnrotten968 Жыл бұрын
His whole thesis is based on the fed returning to Q.E. the question is if there isn't a financial panic would they be able to come to the rescue with Q.E. Also iif inflation stays sticky it ain't gonna happen.
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@jayfreedom Жыл бұрын
Superb discussion.
@TreblexJ Жыл бұрын
Excellent interview!
@I_am_ka Жыл бұрын
B.S! Yellen clearly stated liquidity's going dry in sept-oct! Hes talking about the over-nite bailouts quietly feeding the banks, saving theyre own ass's
@steadfastacadamy1131 Жыл бұрын
What an amazing walk through!
@peterk6460 Жыл бұрын
Michael Howell is a genius definitely one of the best guests on any show
@mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын
Another brilliant interview!! Thank you for having Micheal on
@sudiptad418 Жыл бұрын
Excellent discussion. Great guest. Well done. Really appreciate ❤
@veitastic6866 Жыл бұрын
Bulls love this episode - Bears are laughing about it
@jeanmetcalf1263 Жыл бұрын
Bears are broke or at least a broken record.
@manuthehour Жыл бұрын
Questions for Michael. You seem acutely aware of some collaboration of the Fed to purchase recently issued Treasury debt from the open market. How is this any different from directly monetizing the Treasury's debt? How could the market be unaware of a lack of organic (non-Fed) demand for Treasury debt?
@dameongeppetto Жыл бұрын
"Line goes up" is all that matters. Why? Stop asking silly questions you perma-bear. Enjoy staying poor. Did I do that right? These are the arguments I see on the perma-bull side.
@jcgoogle1808 Жыл бұрын
With $2 trillion deficits,... who'da thought there'd be more QE eventually? This isn't driven by the Fed,.. it's driven by fiscal insanity. That the Fed and other central bankers are forced to react to. I do agree that there will need to be a balancing act for yields when the econmy reaches stasis in a few years. not too low so as to deter more fiscal abuse,... but not so high that interest on the debt overwhelms the budget. The Treasury issung bills,.. as opposed to noites or bonds seems to imply that longer term rates will be lower in the future than current note and bond rates,... otherwise they would try to lock in the current rates. Which says, pending what the Fed does with rates at the next couple of meetings,.. it may be time to buy the long bonds. Because longer term rates are significantly lower than the short term rates, apparently that's what investors are doing. Currently holding the 6 month & 1 years, I've been hoping to load up on the 30 years at or above 4% for the oncoming recession and the eventual need to cut rates in 12 months or so.
@edreeves121 Жыл бұрын
Excellent information here.
@joergmueller4439 Жыл бұрын
Just such a great explanation of complex facts... you guys are absolutely great. Thanks so much!!!
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤
@MicahBratt Жыл бұрын
Very informative. Explains a lot.
@deanswartz5812 Жыл бұрын
What about the marginal product of debt (Lacy Hunt) ? Also people need income. The system can only push out duration so far for so long. At some point the economy must produce income to pay for asset levels.
@jingmu1289 Жыл бұрын
Great episode! Makes total sense! One question is does providing liquidity enough to avoid a financial crisis?
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@jeffsurfanderson Жыл бұрын
So the US Treasury is selling off bonds to create liquidity but that money is not used entirely to pump into the stock market has to pay debt
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@davidfranklin1885 Жыл бұрын
During the crash of 1987, the FED said they would now provide "liquidity", meaning supplying electronic debits and credits. Well, if you, the central bank provide this electronic "liquidity", then you are the Market. You are the buyer and seller and, as such, you determine prices, not human buyers and sellers. How is this NOT being a SHILL in a so called "Free Market" bidding process?
@trillioncap Жыл бұрын
mike is the best; and has nailed it this year
@user-dj5sx5nt1m Жыл бұрын
How did he do last year?
@bryanemerzian9478 Жыл бұрын
Sounds like the game is rigged and printing more money will never end.
@ThetaBurnVictim Жыл бұрын
Oh it’ll end.. in spectacular fashion like it always has in every instance in history.
@MB-tz7by11 ай бұрын
Great session. Susbscribed. Keep up the great macro content
@johankirsten6238 Жыл бұрын
What a fantastic presentation! It really makes all the pieces of the puzzle suddenly fit perfectly. Is there a link where I can jave a closer look at those presentation slides? Much appreciated.
@Gaffesjhr Жыл бұрын
📤☝️
@intothefix975 Жыл бұрын
Anyone know How do you get the latest global liqudity index chart from there site?