This Stock Market Bubble Might Never Pop!

Рет қаралды 21,018

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

The current Stock Market Bubble is the result of the last 15 years of financial exuberance, deficits and all.
0:00 Stock Market Bubble
3:05 Unsustainable
4:05 Will it Ever POP
7:00 Investing
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Пікірлер: 184

@orenalbertmeisel3127 3 ай бұрын

1928s: this time it's different 1988: this time it's different 1999: this time it's different 2007: this time it's different No, it's never different this time. A bull market is always followed by a bear market

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

The distribution of wealth is absolutely different. The question is sorta whether it makes sense to expect similar valuations during periods of greater wealth inequality, when investors have more to invest per unit of GDP or whatever

@bluezaton 3 ай бұрын

And after each of these events the stock market recovered and went on to run higher and higher. Time in the market is better than timing the market

@flashpadxxx 3 ай бұрын

And there are people who always stay at the sideline waiting for certain things to happen

@FlemetAeton 3 ай бұрын

@@SigFigNewton I'm not sure how accurate they are, but if you look at graphs that date back to 1928, wealth inequality is the about same as it was back then. One graph in particular, % share of household wealth for the top .1% of wealth share from 1913-2012. It's a single graph that doesn't mean much on it's own, but it's interesting how similar wealth inequality is by this metric to 1928, but none of the other recessions.

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

@@FlemetAeton yeah, I’ve heard people refer to the present day as a new “gilded age”. The gilded age was technically late 1800s, so maybe even worse wealth inequality back then. Democrats and Republicans make sure that people don’t realize how terrible for society and for the economy this extreme wealth inequality is. When all the money in a consumer economy is in the hands of investors..

@paolol122 3 ай бұрын

Seems like a law, the bubble pops when nobody expects it. This is the first step towards a bubble

@johnmcquaid7524 3 ай бұрын

Perfect message. Thank-you!

@vermasean 3 ай бұрын

Hello Dr. Sven! Thanks for your insightful videos/perspective! Cheers!

@pongop 3 ай бұрын

Wow, awesome video! I love the potato analogy because I love potatoes!!! Hmmm... maybe I should start growing potatoes...

@1BarryMoore 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for your video of S&P 500 breaking 5,000. Wow! I think I'm going to start selling some off, etc. or something. Thanks again!

@AnyangU 3 ай бұрын

I tend to agree. I read an interesting article by some hedge fund manage whose name I can't recall right now that said part of the problem is the dominance of passive investing. If all you do is regularly throw money in the market regardless of fundamentals, it will continue to prop up whatever the ETFs are buying no matter how expensive they get. He went so far as to say value investing is dead. It could continue this way until some event triggers a sell off. Then, things could get bad because it will continue that way until another event triggers a return. It is all macro events and herd behavior rather than equity fundamentals. You might have to sit out for awhile but a correction will eventually occur.

@tsonez 3 ай бұрын

Sounds about right to me. I think the 1973s Ben Graham formulation of value investing is still viable, but the older more price-focused formulation not so much. And one shouldn't have a single strategy anyway. As Charlie Munger liked to say: “To the man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”

@evni6208 3 ай бұрын

Yeah you absolutely right in regards of a stock market bubble.

@Antares-rt5ub 3 ай бұрын

“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch

@Fedgery007 3 ай бұрын

Peter Lynch was brilliant.

@sebfox2194 3 ай бұрын

So, if you spend 12 hours analysing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes. Since 12 hours is longer than 13 minutes.

@joseafalvel 3 ай бұрын

after five years of investing I confirm, marcoeconomics incertainty will be there, it's inevitable, just assume there always be a war about to begin, rates and prices going up and down, recession fears and so on, just focus on businesses strong enough to be here after all that

@grigolli9072 3 ай бұрын

You can Add Buffet, Howard marks and most practical successful investors, none of them spend time worrying about FUD, academics theory nonsense, Political/Social commentary drama, unless there is clear Data of fundamentals pillars: Unemployment, GDP, earnings affecting investments and markets. Sven is more of a market "Philosopher" drama entertainer than a practical investor...

@sebfox2194 3 ай бұрын

@@grigolli9072 Technically, Buffet's investing method draws much from the teachings of Benjamin Graham, who was an academic at Columbia University.

@siggiAg86 3 ай бұрын

I’m starting this is going to keep doing 10% a year for the next decades as the FED always tries to avoid crashes with financial engineering.

@nachhilfehvm 3 ай бұрын

bro how is the fed gonna sustain this unsustainable behavior, the servicing of the debt is already in the trillions

@deepfriedokra 2 ай бұрын

@@nachhilfehvmjust keep printing money

@tima7116 3 ай бұрын

🥔🥔🥔 Haha....love It Sven. GET YOUR POTATOS !!!🥔 🥔 🥔

@zamonischeswunderrind1353 3 ай бұрын

Ark invest in 2020 🤣 i really liked the picture you used

@tsonez 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for the video! I don’t think the “everything bubble” is going to burst any time soon. I.e. low money value in the financial markets is not going to converge with the non-financial. Many global demand-side factors support financial market asset inflation, and the demand is not subduing. The money is simply too plenty, and the asset holders have no incentive or need to convert.

@filipspasevski4593 3 ай бұрын

Can you maybe do a video on the austrian stock market.? Do&Co, Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment and Bawag look like good deals!

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

I did austria in the past. Ok businesses but nothing special. You can always make some money on the cycle and dividends but I also look for long term positive structural trends. Austria: svencarlin.com/austria-stock-exchange-list/

@Eline_Meijer 3 ай бұрын

Sven, I have a research question. The World Container Index (WCI) has surged due to Red Sea events. Shipping companies are still inexpensive, but I'm hesitant to research in an unfamiliar industry during a crisis. How does your research approach change during an industry crisis? Thanks

@HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu 3 ай бұрын

There is a tsunami of newbuilding containerships arriving from shipyards this year and next three years. World fleet of them will be larger by 20-25%.

@53nat0r 3 ай бұрын

There is a lot of money on sidelines. Also automation and ai bots are monitoring the price movement and they are buying . So expect this uptrend to continue especially when fed is going to cut down the rates

@Fedgery007 3 ай бұрын

I expected a pop years ago. And kept hearing that it would pop every year and it never happened. It’s going to pop eventually, and when it does, it’s going to make the depression. Look like a recession, but not anytime soon.

@benalistair4443 3 ай бұрын

Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?

@liammason3137 3 ай бұрын

Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie it’s advisable you work with a financial coach to help set up a well-structured portfolio.

@0hub1ot 3 ай бұрын

Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $1.2M portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 28%.

@benalistair4443 3 ай бұрын

Impressive! How can I contact this expêrt? My pørtfolio isnt doing well, and I need guidance.

@0hub1ot 3 ай бұрын

I don't comfortably throw recommendations around on the internet, but I've been working with Camille Anne Hector. God ! she's brilliant! I'm sure there are others who are good.

@benalistair4443 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.

@davidedeltoro4117 3 ай бұрын

Situation is difficult Sven! 65% of stocks will give 0 Potatoes if recession happen. 35% of anticiclical stocks will give fewer potatoes than bonds. We cannot predict recession, nor interest rates. We know that Equity risk premium is too low and we shoudn't overweight equities. Maybe we need to wait that something goes wrong and then buy low, but I don't know if it's a good strategy. What about investing in business that have long run-way, bottom up style and stop worrying about the macro?

@jonnes__4657 3 ай бұрын

It depends on your time preference! .

@unboxing4319 3 ай бұрын

BAT is low, if you’re looking at dips

@joshuarogers2113 3 ай бұрын

Sven already focuses on that. He makes these videos to attracted viewers and have a little fun don’t be fooled he is not caring about the macro when he invests he own money

@unboxing4319 3 ай бұрын

@@joshuarogers2113 no I mean, I was telling this to the one who wrote the comment above?

@joshuarogers2113 3 ай бұрын

@@unboxing4319 yea so was I 🤣 I wasn’t responding to you ahah but no worries just a miss understanding 👍

@gazoinked3546 3 ай бұрын

I think it's important to understand that the amount of cash flowing within the country as a whole has gone up tremendously and as a result, the market conditions have also gone up with it. Will it pop? I don't think so either, simply because this newly installed cash over the course of some years is certainly driving up the prices, resulting in higher highs. We cannot correct back to post 2008 prices I don't think but can definitely see some loss going forward.

@weiyongl 3 ай бұрын

i was just reading up on some mid cap biotech companes for my own interest hk has like stocks at 6 pe with 4% divi yield. nyse has 60 pe stocks with 0 yield. granted the nyse company is more popular...but still 60 pe!!

@Dank_Matmo 3 ай бұрын

"sitting on your... couch" LOL

@Eline_Meijer 3 ай бұрын

Thank you Sven

@Sherif8928 3 ай бұрын

In the ERA of ETFs and passive investment, bigger companies get only bigger

@PeriMCS 3 ай бұрын

Cloud and AI changed everything. Of course it will get to the bubble but it far from it. Do you know that companies are waiting for months to get access tocomoute to train there models?

@gijshulscher4061 3 ай бұрын

Love the potato analogy :)

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

So glad!

@jameswilson9988 3 ай бұрын

With all of the money being printed and sent out. Will it come back in and prop up the market?

@fepeerreview3150 3 ай бұрын

This is one of the reasons why I chose to pay off the mortgage on my primary residence. For a start, my monthly expenses are lower so my retirement income needs are less, which means I need less capital invested in a volative market. Second, there is no bank with a loan on my house. So if real estate values crash, it makes absolutely no difference to me. In fact, it would be a good time for me to challenge the assessed value of my home and perhaps get a reduction in my real estate taxes. Sven's videos are great. I really enjoy and learn from them. One big question I've been having is whether I should put standing stop loss orders on most of my stocks, just in case there is a big crash that brings down even strong businesses' stock prices. William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily, and author of the "How To Make Money in Stocks" went fully into cash several times over his career, and then bought back in as the stock market came out of its bottom. I'm intrigued by the idea but not confident I fully understand it yet.

@PonderDuke 3 ай бұрын

It's hard to do. It's like timing the market. Everyone would like to do it but it's gambling. You never know if a dip is a tiny dip or the beginning of a big crash. You can set yourself a plan and sell when your certain requirements are met. And then hold cash. Buffett has been holding cash for a long time. You might miss out on further upside but it might prevent a big loss. Try to do what Sven suggest. Try not to swim naked and you will be fine.

@fepeerreview3150 3 ай бұрын

@@PonderDuke Thanks for the reply. I appreciate what he said but find it a bit vague. I need to think more about what this means, to swim naked. At present I've set stop loss orders at 10-15% below the current price on some of my weaker stocks. If there is an overall market drop in that range then it seems like as good a time as any at least to cash out of my weaker holdings. If my stronger stocks drop as well then I just may move the cash into them right away, or maybe watch for a few weeks to try to sense whether it's a longer down trend. I also need to learn more about which sectors are less affected by a recession. I know it's not good to jump in and out of the market. But I also don't want to sit through a 40% collapse and do nothing.

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

Yeah. Paying down mortgage at, say, 4%, is like zero risk guaranteed 4% returns. Always reasonable to accept low returns when risk is even lower than risk of high grade bonds. Literally zero risk, the 4% is automatically reduced from your future expenses

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

@@PonderDukeyup, very common to pull money out then buy in again later at higher prices. Paying down a mortgage with pulled out money makes more sense to me. It’s opting for the guaranteed low return rather than risking zero return, as with someone hoping to use that money to buy in lower who pulls money out of stocks when money market funds yield is terrible. Incidentally, the fact that it makes more sense to risk an attempt at timing the market if you know that your money can be put in a safe place and beat inflation… it doesn’t just make paying down mortgage when afraid of a stock market downturn reasonable… it also makes pulling money out of stocks and putting it in money market funds when afraid of a stock pullback more reasonable when money market yields are good. So a market scare in the current environment might build on itself faster than many expect. Things start looking riskier, many will think “I’ll go with that 4 or 5% money market yield, f this risk

@PonderDuke 3 ай бұрын

@@SigFigNewton Paying down mortgage is smart specially if you rates are high. Yes that's guaranteed yield. I don't try to time the market. I just try to do what makes sense at a given situation. That can be paying of mortgage, hold cash, hold short term bonds or invest in businesses when the price is right. We just have to be patient until the price is right. Like Buffett says you don't have to swing for years when not swinging is the best thing to do.

@aaronalexander826 3 ай бұрын

I'm getting my potatoes 🌱 (from this channel)

@jmc8076 2 ай бұрын

Lots of spec. None have a clue excl maybe a select few …and maybe Alladin. Potato farm good analogy.

@Value-Investing 2 ай бұрын

:-)

@uroy8665 3 ай бұрын

From March-2009 the nasdaq increased by 21 % each year till now (without considering dividend) !!!

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

yep!

@Slickpete83 3 ай бұрын

*so my potatoes are my dividends* ? lol..

@dagobert7667 3 ай бұрын

Yes, If the company pay ...😂

@davidkoba 3 ай бұрын

As long as GDP matches inflation we should be alright. Inflation was low and the government wanted to increase spending and pay their interest on the debt. They increased inflation and the higher prices will fund their future spending. The S&P is not worth more, it is our money that has lost a great deal of it's purchasing power.

@mathewwilson9776 3 ай бұрын

I don't know what you did over the last couple of years, but judging by the YT portfolio performance, it was pretty good: Meta, Amazon, Devro, the China recovery trade, the Rubis dividend (even the Tesla short lol). I think you should keep that going: it was a great illustration of your investing principles, even if those are not your top convictions.

@PeriMCS 3 ай бұрын

Sven real portfolio is down a lot.

@mathewwilson9776 3 ай бұрын

@@PeriMCSFrom his list of covered stocks and his comments over time, it is not hard to determine what owns and I am sure that he is happy accumulating more. Valuations can get absurd in both directions, but over time, fundamentals prevail.

@kevinp5119 3 ай бұрын

Good luck, if you think there is no bubble. I have lived through 3 crashes and nobody ever saw them coming.

@jasonzola3590 3 ай бұрын

For all the those investing in big tech look at the price/sales. Most are based on pure hopium. The answer is hedging as usual

@hans-jurgenneubert8323 3 ай бұрын

A potato field? What happened to the goats? :-)

@vanfeder2732 3 ай бұрын

Ran away

@kkp4297 3 ай бұрын

worst bull case... it might only go up and consolidate, go up, consolidate. people waiting for lower buy price might never get it ever again hahaha

@RodrigoRodrigues-uu8mv 3 ай бұрын

I love potatoes, can you do a video about take two interactive?

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

Don’t know about them

@501soap 3 ай бұрын

2008 SP down 50% COVID SP down 30% This year it has gone up 5%. it might go up another 15-20% . So if there is a pop by end of the year, it won’t be like Covid or 2008.The max it can go down is 20%. So it will loss only the gain happened in 2024. So what is the point in not investing?

@mikemike9604 3 ай бұрын

Best stay scared and wait on the sidelines forever Sven

@grigolli9072 3 ай бұрын

Drop Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and just be long potatoes my man.... lol

@mikemike9604 3 ай бұрын

@@grigolli9072 exactly, go long on mining stocks and corn, its the future bro..

@AlessandroAnderson 3 ай бұрын

Am I ok, whatever happens? This should be a mantra for every investor....or it is, speculation!

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

I think 99% of people don't think at all in that way, you do, but that is value investing!

@mikestanmore2614 3 ай бұрын

Even the Australian stock market has been hit by the bubble. I wouldn't even by BHP at the moment. The dividend is only about 5%. I can get almost that at a bank, without the risk of a reset. I'd say it'll go pear shaped when the bulk of the Boomers pull their money back out of the market over the next decade or so. But that's just my guess, of course! 🙂

@JonC12312 3 ай бұрын

Their shares are fully franked. Also, interest rates are tipped to go down which means your term deposit will pay less, while BHP will pay more. The market knows all.

@jeremynewell9903 3 ай бұрын

At what point do interest rates hurt Government debt repayments?

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

At every point. Any increased amount of government spending beyond government revenue increases taxpayers interest payments on debt. The government is partially just trying to be re-elected, partially hoping that their spending creates jobs that produce useful services or infrastructure. I think it’s a trade-off and legislators lean too far in the more-spending more-debt direction because taxes are unpopular but spending is usually fairly popular. Like… it really does create jobs when government spends on infrastructure or whatever

@davidlewis3773 3 ай бұрын

The US government issues the US dollar. As long as it pays interest in US dollars, it can never run out of US dollars because it is the issuer. Also worth noting that a significant amount of the debt is OWNED by the US non-government sector- public debt is owned by the public: the US economy being the totality of public and private sector activity is not in debt anymore than it is in credit reflecting both the existence of creditors and debtors of the same asset in the same economy.

@harrypotcha0283 3 ай бұрын

Financial advice from Sven: invest in farm to grow your potatoes

@pongop 3 ай бұрын

Yes, I want to start growing my own potatoes now =)

@romanborky5696 3 ай бұрын

I just noticed when looking at the S&P500 there is no $ sign. Does that mean that the 5.026,61 is the cost in $ for a single share of the index or not? With others there is always $ currency written next to it.

@eduardosaucedo9902 3 ай бұрын

Slowly accumulate and transfer wealth into physical metals maybe…

@jonnes__4657 3 ай бұрын

🗽 This is the strangest bear market rallye in the SPX I have ever seen! 🤔 I have some land, I will plant potatoes... .

@dredoctor8271 3 ай бұрын

I am very happy with my potato futures.

@ziaulislam87 3 ай бұрын

It would not pop untill its PE goes much above interest rates Interest rates will be pushed down as govt cant afford it

@vig6912 3 ай бұрын

Who is Nobody and how does he know when it will pop? :)

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

hahahahahaha, there was a western movie: nobody is faster than Jack Bodegard, who are you? I am nobody...

@unboxing4319 3 ай бұрын

Good thing I wear my swimsuit when harvesting my potatoes My neighbours laughing at me all these years … who’s laughing now

@karsinds 3 ай бұрын

There is no bubble market is reflecting the health of economy

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

thanks for sharing

@FoxholeInvestors 3 ай бұрын

It will pop when majority of people think we missed the danger and stop being cautious. That is when the train hits you

@MassimoX 3 ай бұрын

SP 1500 points........

@peezpeez1317 3 ай бұрын

Can't see the bubble pop on us presidential election year. Don’t know after this year.

@tyroneanderson5619 3 ай бұрын

I mean 2000, 2008 and 2020 were all election years man

@kevincaruana7406 3 ай бұрын

Dot AI bubble 😅

@dynamo3059 3 ай бұрын

meanwhile flow trader already crashed

@Jeredien 3 ай бұрын

I am sure the Roman Empire thought the same thing. Where are they today?

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

haha

@useyourbrain1232 3 ай бұрын

Potato field stronk

@eddiealfano 3 ай бұрын

Long potatoes

@ibrahimciftci9599 3 ай бұрын

Because there is no bubble 😂😂

@BuonoBruttoCattivo77 3 ай бұрын

Potato value investing!

@nixielee 3 ай бұрын

Let's buy some potatoes people

@greigsanderson 3 ай бұрын

So never a recession? lol.

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

time will tell

@bpiergies 3 ай бұрын

Germany looks bad

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

not yet, not yet...

@Gamesfordawgs 3 ай бұрын

So it's not a bubble

@billybillson9831 3 ай бұрын

Take out the "not" and you'd be correct

@1Takipci. 3 ай бұрын

potato=dividends

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

:-)))

@stucifdgdfsg4rt5 3 ай бұрын

So you pump potato now and if so what is the ticker symbol? 😂

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

Isn’t that what all the videos on pot stocks are about? I dunno, never clicked

@steventaylor6027 3 ай бұрын

There is no bubble, there is nothing to pop. Companies that are rapidly growing their earnings trade at much higher multiples than those with stagnant or declining earnings, because the stock market is future-looking. You can’t just apply a single flat number (eg historic P/E ratio) to the stock market and claim it’s a bubble based on that.

@ibrahimciftci9599 3 ай бұрын

Yeah he’s a bit confused

@AlanMWatson801 3 ай бұрын

As per JP Morgan’s guide to markets that Sven regularly covers, the long term return of the average investor is in line with inflation. The reason for that is that the average investor sees everything going up and tries to convince himself that this is normal, and thus ends up speculating on perpetual growth and perpetually expanding multiples, as opposed to focusing on business returns. It’s all good while the music lasts.

@steventaylor6027 3 ай бұрын

@@AlanMWatson801 if you have a job that is not being a professional investor, you are much better off buying the market and accepting the market return. Any time you would have spent researching stocks, you should spend putting in extra hours at work instead. You will come out financially ahead in this way rather than wasting your time trying to predict business returns.

@steventaylor6027 3 ай бұрын

@@AlanMWatson801 your return is probably significantly below inflation due to the poor performance of your BABA investment. Buying and holding the market has worked extremely well for the past 15 years, meanwhile “business return” experts such as yourself have been buying VZ, ADM, and BABA and struggling to make a positive return during the greatest bull market in history

@kth6736 3 ай бұрын

"future-looking" 😂😂😂

@gregorsimon9337 3 ай бұрын

Even the potato field will suffer because of climate change.

@Michael_NV 3 ай бұрын

Don't worry. Many people didn't get the point. You are not alone.

@AncientSionX 3 ай бұрын

🤡

@crohmer 3 ай бұрын

Cringe

@Value-Investing 3 ай бұрын

where were you, I missed your comments lately...

@stefan48391 3 ай бұрын

Sven is always telling the same stories over and over. Sorry dude but you should think about do something different without bringing fear in peoples heads.

@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын

Yeah how dare he play it safe. Super lame

@claypeter1402 3 ай бұрын

Fellow degenerates I see 😂