Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/p/coming-soon

I have a question. Why do people look at median sales charts and see them going up and the conclusion is "prices are going up". That isn't a graph of property assessment prices, it's just the 50% percentile price of houses sold. Houses being sold right now are going to two main groups of people right now: very well qualified buyers with a high income and good credit, and cash buyers. That's going to jack the median sales price up because those less qualified (and less afluent) buyers are pushed completely out of the market right now. Less qualified buyers were able to get loans during low interest rates and are likely now locked in their house since they wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage in today's interest rates, or unable to buy due to stricter lending policies from banks.

🎉🎉🎉 With this video and the information you’re bringing us regarding the Real Estate market IT IS BLOWING MY MIND ❗️❗️ Just when you think that you’re figuring out the market,,, It just goes sideways. Amazing! Thank you Ethan for everything you do to put these videos together. Blessings, C Los

Great info as always, sir! Happy Saturday!

I don't know what to say. With our purchasing power decreasing, everything can only rise in price. Correct?

“More million dollar inventory” and “more million dollar homes under contract” then any other time in history is a reflection of massive overvaluation, not a catalyst to move the market higher.

It's almost like you can't time the market. I tried for 2.5 years. I was sure if I was patient enough I was gonna get a 2 for 1 special, but it never came. I just went under contract last month and am glad I did seeing this insane shit.

Very crazy times. I feel like the snowball is rolling down the hill slowly and people don’t see how big it’s getting before it crashes. I hope I am wrong but I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch for now. Great info Ethan.

How much of inflated home prices have to do with spring time?

The fact that a house is over a million dollars, regardless of location, is all the evidence you need of hyperinflation in the housing market.

How is the House of Cards going to effect transaction numbers? Despite the glowing press coverage, the jobs report showed a net loss in full time employment. There were over 90,000 corporate layoffs. This means the "job growth" is over 100% part time workers. The BLS is counting people who pick up a second job as two people which s my personal favorite. BLS sampling is really a poll. In a typical poll, there is a margin of error of 2-4%. The financial markets move on a BLS sampling on 2 tenths of 1%. These are numbers that cannot be remotely accurate. GDP is still being driven almost solely by deficit spending. The government is simply buying growth at an unsustainable clip which is why inflation is still hanging around. Why not accurately count real full time jobs and let the country dip into recession? It's inevitable. Rates may not go down this year because of a set of employment and GDP metrics that are not real. We are spending at World War II levels a percentage of GDP. 9% of Nashvillians say they can afford to buy a home according to local news. Isn't this a bubble?

Interest needs to go up not down. Kiss the dollar goodbye if they drop rates. Nobody is buy t bills now already.

I just wonder if these housing prices aren't still due to migration. So while it's true that we can look at the average prices going up,, the "locals", with their salaries, aren't supporting the price increases. Also, I can't imagine those migrating into the state, with a $1 million plus in their pockets, buying into the rentals. The locals don't appear to be going for the high rental prices. With a surplus of rentals hitting the market, it seems those prices will be coming down. Again, the only thing that makes sense to me is that migration continues to drive the rises in housing cost. But the fundamentals of the economy can't support it. Sooner or later, the fundamentals of the economy will dictate housing prices. I can't forget that stat about "90 % of people regretting that the purchase of their house last year." Wow, don't think those were cash buyers from California. They bought into a market they couldn't afford, and obviously drove up prices..As always, appreciate your weekly insights.

Fed probably ain’t cutting rates. Even if they do in the short term, they will eventually go up to double digits and mortgage rates will be in the teens. It’s coming.

You're confused how homes are priced.

New homes prices lead existing, already down 20%. Not only that, they're falling at the fastest pace in history (source EPBResearch