LOL tesakuler

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My expertise is more in sales and operations forecasting and NOT capital markets. There are a ton of books on that subject. I will venture to guess that none of them are the magic formula everyone is seeking. My view of any forecasting is that they all attempt to predict the future and the future is not always or easily predictable.

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Format the date value as a number. Behind the scene uses the Julian date so that the dates can be used in calculations. Sometimes the calculation is formatted as a date e.g. mm/dd/yyyy.

@@markgavoor2497 what's the reason to use Julian Date? I need the explanation to put in my report. thanks in advance

Constant is the "Intercept" under your coefficients table when you run your regression analysis (Data> data analysis> Regression). If you don't have the data analysis tab, you have to go to Options> Add-ins> Analysis TookPak.

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Change The format to number it is prob on custom

Use the regression formula to predict. Watch from the 3:48 point. We use historical data of six months. We use the first five months to predict the sixth. Since we know the reality, we can immediately see how well our forecast is.

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what is iqd strategy is...?

Thanks for your comment. Of course you can use any method to TRY to project stock prices, but a method as in this would probably result in you losing a lot of money unless the stock was steadily increasing or decreasing. This is, however, an exercise for elementary forecasting techniques using real data... and closing stock prices are real data.

yu zhang: it is indeed so dumb... if I were actually advocating this as a good method to predict stock prices. Rather, this is just part of a forecasting section of a course. I use stock data because they provide good time series data that, because of variation for a variety of reasons, can provide all the frustrations one will encounter in forecasting. Thanks for your comment

LOL... this is a classroom exercise on using regression, exponential smoothing, and moving average. it uses real stock data but it is not intended to be used as a stock price predictor. But thanks for weighing in.

Of course it is lame. We simply us this to practice using regression in a Quantitative Analysis class. Linear models generally do not work for stock data. That is part of the learning.