Predictions for the 2024 UK Election

Рет қаралды 4,706

Күн бұрын

Disclaimer: to any MPs or candidates watching... this is not a betting guide
In all seriousness, thank you to all who watch my videos and those who have subscribed. please do follow me on X/Twitter @ThePollPosition
Sources used:
BBC
Sky news
Bloomberg UK
Statista
YouGov
Survation
Polling Report UK
Election Maps UK
Wikipedia (forgive me)

Пікірлер: 36

@emilymaitlislaptop 28 күн бұрын

Good basic explanatory analysis - subbed!

@x_zschannel 25 күн бұрын

In hindsight, those were quite accurate, more accurate than a lot of pollsters said. The only things that were out of range were Reform (5), the Lib Dems (72) and the SNP (9)

@thepollposition 25 күн бұрын

I have to admit I was at least a little surprised when the exit poll came out. I was a little worried that I might have been way off from the amount of MRP polls saying labour would win bigger but I did still have a lot of confidence in my estimates and I'm very happy with how accurate they were overall

@winnywin 28 күн бұрын

Tactical voting has got the pollsters flummoxed!

@CatharineGregory 29 күн бұрын

Brilliant video. Please could you explain how the polls predict results for the new constituencies?

@thepollposition 29 күн бұрын

They place the notional results which are if the votes in 2019 were placed on the new map and apply the swings to those new seats. Since we know how each polling district voted it is quite easy to get the results which are taken into account by both the aggregates and the MRP polls

@aliservan7188 28 күн бұрын

What's Wikepedia?

@vivienclogger 28 күн бұрын

I think you're right - I think the Tories won't do quite as badly as people think, but will still be humiliated. And yes - voting is the one day every 4-5 years when we have the power to truly influence politicians and policies.

@cheeseburgersarecool6600 28 күн бұрын

how many independence will win seats that is the question

@thepollposition 28 күн бұрын

There could be a few independent wins but it is difficult to tell as constituency polls aren't always reliable and the polls aren't always effective in estimating how well independent candidates fare on polling day. At most I would say there are 4 races are looking competitive enough for an independent to do well

@johnpotts8308 28 күн бұрын

I do wonder if we might see the Tories complaining about how they are under represented at this election (almost certainly true) and adopt a policy of voting reform to some variety of PR. Though I would suspect that any such support would mysteriously evaporate if they were ever to get back into government (just like Tony Blair's did in 1997). And in any case, it won't matter because Labour are unlikely to adjust a system that delivered them massive majority on around (probably) only 40% of the vote.

@peterdavidson3268 28 күн бұрын

HOW you vote under First Past the Post [FPTP] is more or less irrelevant - it's WHERE you vote that really counts! The UK's incumbent voting system is not fit for purpose and (decades) past its sell-by date. Unless and until the UK ditches FPTP it cannot claim membership of the grown-up club of real European democracies. When the dust settles on this election result, I expect to see yet more examples of the grossly disproportionate influence of FPTP; • ReformUK winning a mere handful of seats with 17-18% of the votes cast Nationally whilst the LibDems (who have decades of experience and know exactly how to game the FPTP system) winning perhaps 60 - 70 seats on 12% or thereabouts. • Labour securing close to 70% of the new MP intake with perhaps just less than 40% support from the UK electorate • Conservatives suffering electoral annihilation because the right of centre voting bloc is split down the middle The UK needs to ditch FPTP and replace it with something half decent, such as Single Transferable Vote (used to elect councillors in Scotland and members of the Dáil Éireann). This change would bring so many democratic benefits for the UK: • ALL ballots cast would count in some way to the process of electing MPs • Results within each individual multi-member boundary would be proportional to the votes cast • All elected MPs would boast broad support across their respective constituencies • The electorate would be obliged to become much more engaged and informed (how else can you rank candidates - some from the same party, 1,2,3,4,5 etc, if you know NOTHING about them?) • Multi-member boundaries would encourage the emergence of more coherent localised political communities Lots of benefits, very few downsides - the main one being that it's more complicated to count so it takes a bit longer for the results to come out - so no election night special - what a shame!

@PanglossDr 28 күн бұрын

The UK is not and never has been close to being democratic.

@lorrainecrampton1632 28 күн бұрын

The ONLY problem I can think of is if there are a number of wildly different ideological parties on roughly the same percentage share of the vote with no outright winner, then it seems to take months for a coalition to form who are ready to cooperate in government together, and that country seems to often grind to a political halt. I voted for a form of PR when we had a referendum on it over a decade ago, but if course it was rejected. I think that was probably because the Tories - the main coalition partner at the time with the Lib Dems - liked things to remain as FPTP and so didn't enthusiastically campaign for it ☹🇬🇧

@eckie4679 28 күн бұрын

All solid points but the UK overwhelmingly endorsed the FPTP system in a referendum in 2011. 🫤

@peterdavidson3268 28 күн бұрын

@@lorrainecrampton1632 1.The referendum you reference (which occurred in 2011) offered a choice between the Alternative Vote [AV] and FPTP. Not sure how many times this needs repeating but AV is NOT Proportional - no voting method that retains single member seats (which AV does) can be Proportional - end of discussion! 2. Moving to an actual proportional voting method, such as Single Transferable Vote, completely reshapes the entire electoral landscape and with it, the behaviour of both voters and political parties. Political parties in jurisdictions that use proportional voting methods include in their manifestos detailed information about which other parties they WILL NOT cooperate with to form any post election administration so that solves your hypothetical conundrum. Finally I have intimate knowledge of behind the scenes activties that took place during the Referendum you reference - I was involved in the YES to AV campaign (on its periphery). Let's just say that campaign skulduggery of the lowest order on the part of Cameron (who personally reneged on sworn commitments he made in advance as part of the deal to even hold the referendum) and his acolytes was common currency. The threat of potential legal action prevents me from being more specific. See also my response to @eckie4679

@peterdavidson3268 28 күн бұрын

@@eckie4679 I'd be the first to admit that the UK needs a massive and comprehensive public information program to provide them with independent and objective facts about how voting systems work and their impact upon our democratic/political culture. I vividly remember the Daily Mail headline on the day of the AV/FPTP referendum you reference - it read "SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY" in huge capital letters font size. The panic within Conservative Party ranks was palpable during the campaign period itself - Cameron & Co reneged on previous commitments about UK Govt. intervention in the campaign - a variety of legal actions were threatened, in response to naked lies widely spread by the NO campaign. Are we likely to see any independently overseen public information campaign of the type I allude to when the LabServative duopoly exerts almost total control over the media landscape, ie. what the public hears and reads about on a daily basis - are we ****!

@OldeJanner 28 күн бұрын

That's if you believe that the polls treated Reform Party fairly.

@PanglossDr 28 күн бұрын

What about tactical voting? You ignored it. I believe the Tories are going to be almost annihilated.

@matthewclifton2510 28 күн бұрын

Think the Tories and Labour are going to get less than you predict. Reform will get a lot more. There's a real buzz out there. Millions are voting Reform X.

@stuartcollins82 28 күн бұрын

!remindme 24hours

@eckie4679 28 күн бұрын

You know this how?

@stuartcollins82 28 күн бұрын

@@eckie4679 he means all the other people on his xenophobic social media echo chamber

@hubertcumberdale4385 28 күн бұрын

01:36 22 + 7 = 29 =/= 39

@thepollposition 28 күн бұрын

Thank you for picking that up. I think that error began with a typo and I was just too tired to notice as I had been writing, recording and commuting almost all day. It would be a national swing of 14.5% instead

@johnswift1736 28 күн бұрын

No one knows about the swing from labour to reform

@whoknowsbruvs 28 күн бұрын

it's about 3% of previous Labour voters to reform, far more ex labour voters are swinging to greens. Labour are picking up more voters from other parties than they are losing. Yes there have been polls specifically looking at this.

@thepollposition 28 күн бұрын

I would say that the swing comes from dissatisfied conservative voters who switched to labour and then changed their minds and went to reform instead which we can see with the poll slump labour saw in the last few weeks

@johnswift1736 28 күн бұрын

@@whoknowsbruvs the polls are slanted by the parties so voters think it is a 2 horse race and try to steal away from lib dems and reform. If the turth about hoe high reform are doing. More Labour and tory voters would vote reform uk. Let's hope people wanting new politicians vote reform. None in the passed parliament are worth keeping.