Nobody should be depressed about Tesla stock right now on the brink of Autonomy. This is the moment to be the most Bullish ever. Right now i'd just like to appreciate short-term opportunities that I could take advantage of with 100k ..

I really appreciate you Farzad. I love your insight and presentation. You are measured and methodical without being boring lol

I also think that Tesla created somewhat of an Osborne effect with the new model 3 for those buyers that were going to purchase the existing model y. I have spoken to so many people who test drove the refreshed model 3 and now they said that they are waiting for the refreshed model y before purchasing.

00:40 Horse carriage is more autonomous than a normal car. Let that sink in...

If you think from Tesla's perspective - you cannot declare that you are going to release budget car and expect not to have Osborne effect. It will take at lease 16 to 20 months before there is a real volume production once you announce the product. That is a very long period to escape an Osborne effect. Instead if they announce that the product is something else, but do not disclose until the last minute that volume production catches up for sale of the product (the budget car) - it will both have a surprise effect as well as create demand for the product design not vastly minimize Osborne effect.

@farzad you are misunderstanding the value of a robotaxi. It doesn't just compete with Uber. It competes with essentially all transport systems. The primary cost of Uber is the drivers. If you remove the drivers the main remaining costs are the car itself, the electricity it uses, the maintenance, and the insurance. These could all reasonably be kept to below $1000/m for a high utilisation vehicle, perhaps less. If a car is used 6000 hours per year, then this is a running cost of $2/h. If it averaged 40mph that would give it a running cost of $0.05 per mile. This is about 30x cheaper than Uber. this is 3x cheaper than rail travel in Europe. Stick a double coach trailer on a Tesla Semi and fill it with 100 passengers for long distance travel and the cost comes down to about $0.01/mile as well. Tesla can completely upend travel if it can solve autonomy.

FARZAD: I live in middle of Mexico. My 2 cents. I agree FSD is the future, but for where and when? USA is very rich compared to other parts of the world, meaning the number of people that have extra money for FSD in other parts of the world is very limited, even if it is safer. FSD will not become mandatory for a long LONG time, so in poorer countries the take rate of FSD will be much smaller. Also the road rules in Countries like Mexico are not really enforced, so if you train FSD to drive like the people, then that means training it to drive illegally which the government probably wouldn't allow, and for a Tesla FSD to drive following all rules would piss off a lot of people and create many problems. Places like Mexico / India, need a low cost vehicle MUCH more than they need FSD and it is my opinion that FSD take rate will be substantially less, orders of magnitude less in countries like this. I understand if the Model 2 needs a delay for a CATL factory that is producing next gen batteries, but it is my opinion that the Model 2 is more important than S / X/ 3 / Y / truck, COMBINED. The model 2 would be the vehicle for the people for the masses, and if Tesla steps away from that..... then Tesla is more about the money and less about helping people and less about the future. To have the mind set that the way FSD will happen in the USA is even remotely similar to how FSD will progress on other countries is a MAJOR mistake, IMO. Also the Model 2 can't be just a smaller Model 3, it has to be designed for the roads / terrain of 3rd world countries, places where roads are not necessarily paved, where BIG speed bumps and potholes are common, dirt roads, rock roads, conditions are simply harsher in other countries and the vehicle needs to be designed for that, NOT a city show piece. Also a more rugged and and higher vehicle would help in Countries that have snow. Speaking of snow, are there videos of FSD videos of driving in Canada while it is snowing? Driving in snow depending on if it is light and fluffy, wet and slushy, hard and compact, big and sticky, driving in snow is more a art than a science, so a vehicle with more space below it and the road, and more rough terrain capable, is more of a world market vehicle. Please share with others as I don't use X / TikTok / Snap / Discord, Facebook, no social media except You Tube for me.

Farzad, I don't understand why you say this is a change. If you listen to Elon Musk on Tesla's quarterly earnings, he has always made it very clear that Tesla is all about automation. He very clearly said that FSD is what would determine if Tesla stock is worth thousands of dollars a share or zero. Makes no sense to make a $25k car over a robot taxi. If I can invest $20k to get a return of $25k or I can invest that same $20k and get a return of $40 or $50 or even $60k every year for years the choice is a no brainer. I think most people don't grasp the magnitude of FSD. It will massively transform all aspects of society. Not only FSD but automation as a whole. The next 10 to 20 years are going to be extremely exciting, and Tesla has positioned itself to be at the forefront of that seismic transformation. Why so many people don't see it is beyond me.🤔

It makes sense to start with building a million robotaxis. The first mover here will capture most. It will bring huge revenue. It will also help fine-tune the new production system and avoid the Osborne effect before launching the 25k car.

A wise man told me : "When in doubt about Tesla, check out the mission statement to get your answers". Tesla is not going to cancel a lower budget electric car for mass market because of their mission statement ;)

This was a minor FSD issue that FSD captured a speed limit sign of 25 miles per hour intended for a parallel small street. I had to press on the gas too long until the next 40 miles per hour sign showed up. I thought Google map already know the speed limit of this road.

Since Musk unequivocally stated the Reuters article was false why is this even a discussion?

`As a TSLA shareholder, I think delaying/cancelling the 'Next Gen' car is a mistake. The Robotaxi will not be approved by the regulators until 2026 at the earliest. Murphy's law tells us there will be accidents that will cause the program to be delayed.

Thanks Farzad, I hear what you're saying regarding why would Tesla give up profits on so many potential Compact sales around the world but I'm thinking they might simply be weighing the potential margins between those sales (and the headaches of building new factories, manufacturing) vs. the potentially much bigger margins and lower overhead of software services (robo-taxi fleet, FSD licensing, etc.)

Really excellent and relevant content Farzad. I love the way you are able to put things in a clear and understandable way. I wonder what how the robots will effect the current Chinese labor cost advantage? Robot cost + cost to operate amortized over ????? years of operation? Interesting to think about!

Great insight but was missing a key point, specifically with the Uber comparison. As the price of ride share falls sharply and available ride share cars jumps, there becomes much less reason to own a car. There is almost no wait for a robo taxi because there can be one on every corner, and the cost of transportation in general falls. The people who would buy the $25k car are the ones who would likely choose not to own a car if it was no less convenient. I think that’s the bet the company is making and why they say robotaxi makes $25k car obselete.

You ate missing a key point. Think in terms if what a 5x utilization rate of robotaxis would do prospective ICE buyers.

The fundamental flaw in the reasoning is full autonomy even if it works perfectly just isn’t worth anywhere near what they think it’s worth to the average person. Having to drive your own car just isn’t a big deal for most people. A lot actually enjoy it most of the time. Does the math still make sense if it’s truly worth say $3k as a feature addition on a new car instead of $12k or even $7k? People tend to value being in full control of their environment most of the time. Ultimately once solved the feature will become a commodity that is just expected on all new cars with no up charge.

Farzad I really appreciate your thinking process. Consider this: The supply of North American manufactured batteries has not been able to ramp fast enough to power everything that is planned. Robotaxi and the next gen car are on the same platform. Robotaxi is a limited market initially, and therefore will need fewer batteries. Also the profits will be enormous per car using the lease model. Next gen rollout will need a huge number of cars right away. I believe Gigamexico hasn’t started because there isn’t enough battery capacity yet. If we could use Chinese batteries without a penalty I think that would solve the problem.

I've watched a lot of Chuck Cook's FSD videos and like Chuck I think there is an overwhelming argument for bumper (or outer front wheel arch) mounted cameras to improve visibility beyond that of a human driver. The B pillar camera is too far back - behind a human driver's sight line. Sandy Munro's recommendation of FLIR (Forward Looking Infra Red) to deal with heavy rain, snow and even fog also seems very worthy of serious consideration.

My Tesla prediction: 1) Model 2 is postponed for a regular car as well as for RoboTaxi, until: 2) RoboTaxi gets implemented based on Model Y 3) Heavy capital investments in the NVIDIA server center. Heavy push for FSD level 4 Dec 2024 5) RoboTaxi gets built with HW6 with improved sensors (all weather proof) and a faster car computer ( to handle more sensors) Goal RoboTaxi will start testing at the end of 2025 and be released by the end of 2025 6) Giga Mexico and Giga India start delayed and dependent on the success of RoboTaxi 2) 4680 capital investments are set to a minimum of just enough to supply CyberTruck 7) Scaling batteries based on CATL bought knowledge. What do you think?

You would delay the M2 because you don't have the battery supply in place yet. They know that robotaxis will only go into a limited number of places at first so this is the best use of batteries while at the same time not osborning other vehicles.

Would love to see both happen together. The M2 and the robo taxi

Not confident about supervised self-driving. Test driving it I have encountered two issues. The first problem is when the route planning showed the car should drive forward through an intersection, the car would veer into left turn lane by half a car length before recognizing the mistake and shift back to the original lane. The second is left turn into a side street with center island 2/3 of the time turning angle was too shallow, with high tire curbing potential.

Farzad, I'm guessing you haven't yet read the open letter to shareholders from Robyn Denholm, Chairperson of the Board of Directors. She said the company is reorganizing & eliminating duplicate job positions (aka "leaning the mixture"). It's a good proactive move for future business (more nimble), not reactive to the recent past.

Electric car leader, self driving innovator, AI creator, robotics, building space rockets, a sky full of orbiting internet access, getting paralyzed people to walk, most open social network... I'll just trust this guy.

The issue with robotaxi that no one talks about is demand is concentrated at specific times. Namely, the hours of going to and from work. During peak hours there is under capacity, or the rest of the day there is severe over capacity.

Good analysis, thanks... agree w/ most points. Will be interesting to see which direction Tesla & Elon go... hope to still hedge bets and do both, but priorities... one blocker for full robotaxi, is... automated charging. SOMEbody has to plug them in! Unless... they DO enable wireless charging in the robotaxi platform, and start deploying wireless charging sites widely in robotaxi-approved cities etc. (Otherwise, they have to get that creepy robot snake plug thing to work, more $$$..) That makes a lot of sense that they bought the wireless charge company, and have some provisions for it on CyberTruck... not sure how they'd deploy/retrofit it to existing Model 3/Y that want to get used as fully automated robotaxis?

I wonder how Tesla will approach this Robo Taxi model… Will they release a “sled/shell” that includes everything needed and companies can put their own interiors inside? Will they just create a finished product and sell to companies like Uber? Will they just cut Uber out completely and get into the ride sharing business?

Do you guys think existing vehicles in the fleet (HW3 & HW4) will be robotaxi capable? This will make a huge difference in the fleet size and valuation of the robotaxi model.

A robotaxi will not be the same car as the 25k car. It would need to be more durable like the cyber truck. It could be the same size frame but components need to be like a city train in durability

It seems to me that the first phase to TRUE AUTONOMOUS driving to sign off on would be for an inspection of all highways and state - "this is good for autonomous driving entirely" and then have Tesla understand this so that all driving outside of roads not ready 100%, would warn the 'driver' to say "hey, pay attention now" vs all the roads that are designated ready the 'driver' could read or do whatever they want knowing they are on a road that doesn't require any supervision. Obviously, all major highways of all sorts could be signed off almost right away and then gradually over time, all roads. I think that would make good sense.

You aren't just replacing Uber. You're also replacing ALL public transportation and trains. And as people adopt, then inner cities where parking is a pain will adopt. The other markets will be more difficult to penetrate but there will be adoption there too.

I’m hoping for a little dip after this earnings call next week so I can buy more shares. I don’t have a huge bag or anything but I definitely see the upside

The difference between a robot taxi and a Model 2 is a steering wheel and pedals. They could update the production line at any time.

What would the cost of model Y and 3 using the unboxed method be. I would think Model Y would be the test bed for the unboxing, you have all the parts plus less cost in tooling and casting?

Don't you guys get it? Robotaxi platform will be same as the 25k car.

When I get my tesla I will definitely subscribe to FSD now that it's $99

My main concern is regulatory approval - both for robotaxi and for a compact if it is only steer-by-wire which may not be allowed globally.

Some have argued that one reason for the big gap between production and delivery in Q1 is due to redirection of transport ships around the Cape as Suez canal was was ”blocked” by huhti rebels. Is there any truth to this? If so how big of a gap could be explained by this and would that then be offset in Q2 as such transports reach destination in Europe?

Elon loves to gamble, he is going all in on AI and AD!

Is it a massive risk? Or can you just bolt a steer by wire steering wheel on the robotaxi and go whatever way you want? I'm betting the latter.

The new Boston dynamic bot is not competition. Only r&d and no NN AI, not intended for mass production according to their own documentation.

Seriously, that is some of the best analysis of what the current changes around Tesla could lead to. Great video, Farzad.

Still a huge difference between a useful FSD driver assistance package and one that is truly reliable for Robotaxi without a steering wheel. For Robotaxi, reliability of "hardly ever requires intervention" is not good enough. If it only kills you once every 4 years is that good enough??

IF ! Tesla was to cancel the Model 2 ($25,000 car), it would only be canceled until it is no longer canceled. I think the phrases, smoke screen & Osborne effect may be just below the surface. Time to ready the dry powder ($$) for next Tuesday.

If someone asked me should they buy FSD for $12,000 now I would say to instead buy $12k worth of Tesla stock and by the time FSD is actually finished you'll more than double your money. Regulatory approval for FSD is going to be painfully slow with an incredibly high bar of near perfect operation.

Useful discussion of where we are in Tesla's development.

The robotaxi and the Model 2 are the same car, are they not?

Robtaxi are possible for the next 10 years only in the States and Canada!! This only max 10-20 % of the world market!!!!!!!!!!!! So please next Genration FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!

Another excellent insight video with your commentary...Thank you...!!!

As long as the software team keeps the updates coming I can see limited a robotaxi service happening soon. 12.4 seems to have solved 2 of the most annoying edge cases for my commute, the merging of two slow moving lanes where everyone takes turns and getting into a left turn lane fast enough so as to not annoy the guy behind me. 😀 Now it’s on to restoring the reasonably good navigating that 11.4.9 had. 🤨

If Tesla's FSD somehow saved me time and hassle, the $99 monthly subscription would be a fair price. But for the current features, which are more like a fun gimmick, I'd only consider a price range of $10-20/month.

We don’t know enough to have an informed view. If the Reuters report was true, I think a massive reevaluation of what Tesla is needs to happen. Elon said that report was false. So, we wait.

Similar to when Apple began to put more focus on higher-margin services revenues when the ecosystem was ready, Tesla is doing just that. Look at Uber, Lyft, etc. revenues and paradigm shift with FSD disruption. Please recalculate profits of the two options in your next clip. Looking forward to see it.

The board wanting to re approve Musk’s 50B compensation package is the most bullish sign ever. 🚀🚀🚀

Sold at $364 buying back in at $137

Regulators are going to give FSD so much trouble. It’s going to take another 7 to 8 years just to test it and approve it so think maybe 2032.

They'll do robotaxi plus existing cars in a Uber-like network in NA select cities to start off with, and the compact for Europe until regulatory approval is more likely.

Hundreds of millions of people just love driving. People are moving out of the cities. Who wants to wait a half an hour for a car to come to them to take them down the street a few miles to a store. This understanding that nobody wants to really drive a car is just wrong. I would definitely take a robotaxi if I'm out of town in a city going from my hotel to a restaurant or airport, but when I'm at home I want to be able to just get in my car and go, not wait for robitax to get there and then wait for another robotaxi to get home.

Hi Farzad Model 2 and Robo will both go on the same platform. Want a 2? Just add a steer wheel and pedals. A Robo? OK. DONE

Gen 2 is evolution.FSD is revolution

I appreciate you giving a two sided perspective on this possible inflection point for the company. Far too many Tesla channels only pump up the positive and don’t discuss the possible negative with any real nuance, more often totally dismissing it

We saw V12 a long time ago and if we don't know what version they're on now how do we know it's a risk, if we saw it we may say it's a no brainer? I love the way people put their views together with literally no information.

This technology is still 10 years away from being acceptable. Niche market only at present.

My advice to Elon is give people what they want. This may or may not include what the government wants. What do people want? Lower first cost. Lower cost of operation. Comfort in operation including temperature flexibility winter summer, no range anxiety ( more range and countrywide recharge network or both), larger interiors and attainable luxury pricing. Most people don’t care if a car or suv or truck is ice or ev or hybrid. They don’t want to think about it. They just want reliable transportation at lowest cost and the impact on the environment is something they don’t want to think about. Tesla has already sold the customer who gives a rats behind about the environment. Most people don’t think they will ever need self driving but I personally would love it. Robotaxi as a replacement for Uber would be great. I have liked the Uber drivers I have met have been mostly nice but it is Russian roulette with natural intelligence. I would prefer a robot that is under centralized control and artificially intelligent.

Robotaxis can be profitable in urban areas and the burbs, but not in less densely populated areas. Musk has said that once you get the system set up, the cost comes close to the cost of materials - I can see pushing robotaxis out first if the tech is ready as they can likely deploy all of them they can make and use it to learn, but once they ramp, there is no reason not to develop the lower cost car - as you say, developing countries may not have the needed infrastructure to make robotaxis work.

I can see robo taxi in “work” or “sleep” or “entertainment” configurations and you could hail which ever one you need.

One thing i don't think alot of people has internalized yet is that the core issue of FSD has already been solved, that is every main aspect of what is considered as driving has already been automated by FSD, what's missing is mostly the fixing of edge cases which is literally only a matter of time as there's a limited number of those. This is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people because once a certain optimization threshold is crossed, FSD is going to turn into digital gold so fast that fomo isn't even going to be a thing, there's just going to be a lot of regret.

Obviously people who have devoted their lives to the company are excited about the likelihood of success since they are leaving in droves. The rest of us are still here in Jonestown, Guyana November 1978.

I'm skeptical of the idea that more data is needed, as opposed to a better-designed neural network.

Operating a fleet of robotaxies will create a steady revenue stream -- better than the one-time margin profit from selling a car. Also this will leverage the value of FSD and begin gradually introducing the idea of robotaxies to folks who don't want to buy a car or hassle with charging it. From this perspective the idea makes excellent sense.

I think they need the 25,000 dollar vehicle. The more data the more perfected the FSD will become.

$69 per share would be so poetic.

I was thinking on the same angle, but there is a little more complexity. That is car owners can and will also do robotaxis. They will also be generating income which means the money spent on the car is an investment. So the prices may be attractive at the current prices.

Interesting. Thanks.

fsd is a pure speculation bet ... optimus is more probable .... energy is king

Robotaxis… Elon fanboys lapping it up again 😂😂😂

Very intelligent analysis, thanks.

Focusing on FSD robotaxi first and then selling a somewhat higher cost low cost but FSD compact car 2nd after FSD is proven and accepted, helps to enter the low cost car market at a higher price point and higher margin and destroy that market. That is because buyers will be able to rideshare their vehicles to help them make payments.

"When they solve autonomy." Yeah, right...just after Cold Fusion and Hyperloop. 😏

Why is Robotaxi over Model “2” probably the best and most intelligent strategy ? The two(2) most important, impactful, and financially beneficial commercial products that Tesla will develop are (in chronological order) : 1) Full Self Driving (FSD) 2) Optimus Robot = requires FSD to be solved In order to finalize and solve FSD quickly, it is necessary as many vehicles as possible on the road and utilizing FSD as soon as possible. Purchasers of a NEW Model “2” with an Estimated Purchase Price of ~ $ 25,000 most likely not be able to afford to pay ~ $12,000 or 50% MORE than the vehicle for FSD. As a result, the majority of the Model “2”s would be on the road with NO FSD, and would not be helping the mission to solve FSD. On the other, Tesla could mandate that ALL Robotaxis be equipped with and utilize FSD. And this strategy will be especially easy if, in fact, Tesla IS the actual Robotaxi owner / operator. Thus, leading with Robotaxi will lead to the quicker solution on FSD for Tesla vehicles; but more importantly, quicker FSD Licensing to other Automotive Companies. FSD Licensing estimated +80% Profit Margin and is well above Vehicle Profit ~ 15% And, with NO Capital Infrastructure Investment and NO Manufacturing Costs, Tesla’s Overall Profitability soars. And then . . . . . . with FSD . . . . . there is Optimus . . . . . .

I guess its not only about the how many cars are being sold, i do expect the robotaxi margin to be significantly higher then their normal cars especially if they are the first mover

Not betting. Small car will be produced RT is approved across the world - years. The vehicle architecture designed for producing both on the same assembly line, with steer by wire a notable reason

We downloaded the fsd for a month to try it out. Hated it. I drive better then this program. The 99 bucks offered now won't persuade me to buy.

FSD competes with human driving. Human driving costs $0.00 per month; FSD $100 per month and in both cases the human is required to drive/supervise.

The difference between the LC car and the robotaxi's is a steering wheel and pedals. To make one is to make both. Question is which one has the highest margins?

And I think Tesla needs breathing room. To make the 25k with high margin, they need: 1. Optimus working on the production line in a meaningful way 2. Unboxed car manufacturing 3. Build in Mexico 4. High volume 4680 production Don’t think all this is ready yet, so a captive robotaxi fleet that Tesla owns avoids the profit problem of selling 25k cars to individuals.

Been following Tesla for years an investor. I don’t understand why they don’t just continue with the compact car and continue fsd as they have been doing and create the robotaxi with the compact in tandem. Seems like risk assessment would easily say go this direction. Sell a ton of cars and work on fsd at the same time. Like they have been doing…

Removing the steering wheel, but adding a small joystick for "emergency driving" only, might be an option. Steer by wire would make it possible.

There was another situation when supervised self-driving wanted to make a right turn when there were some road constructions blocking the right turn lane. The car can still make a right turn at the intersection. It seemed the self-driving wanted to do the right turn since it slowed down by quite a lot, but abandoned the turn at the last moment and wanted to go straight instead. It was a very sudden decision so I just completed the right turn for it.

This is not a bet the company moment. This is a change the focus moment and let's git it done hard yard's moment.

FSD five years away minimum. Mexico Mega factory turns out its first car in two years. 😮😮

Next gen platform “25k car” IS happening period. You heard him on the last conference call. They decided to make GigaAustin the primary start of it instead of Mexico because it doesn’t make sense to not have the factory where he and many other engineers will be spending a lot of time including nights sleeping there, to be the main starting point for it. It’s happening this year.

I almost threw in the towel for “Tesla News / Stocks” channels and then I found this channel , Thank you for NOT being a Fan fair and Actually having Some Mentality and Logic to Tesla Info , you sir are NOT going in My “For the LoLs” playlist 👍🏻

10:32 You are comparing building and selling a Model 2 with running a transport service, they’re not the same things, so it doesn’t make sense to spend time worrying about reduced units of build. If they can transition to a service, yet stay at 2 million units, they’d still make a lot more revenue.

There's also van & nomadland 😮

Really good and thoughtful video. Thanks

FSD is fantastic right now if you have hw3. HW4 not so much, I think they shit the bed trying to get cheap with vision only HW4. Speaking from experience, I have both.

Robotaxis will require a whole new rollout of "Robochargers". That will take even more time than the cars.