I work for a large multinational Medical device manufacturer with manufacturing located in the SE USA as a CNC CAM Engineer. This year we have closed our Chinese and German manufacturing and moved all of it to my manufacturing facility in the US. We also manufacture to a much lesser extent In Malaysia.

He ran out of beach?! My god, he's done it! He's finally reached the edge of the world.

A Swiss company I worked with, partially held by a US firm, related to cotton based products manufacturing, just brought back their operation to the US...

I live in Vietnam and work in business here. It is not the answer (yet). Corruption is part of the social fabric - there is an expectation you will bribe. Regulatory/Centralised decision making is often bizarre, ill thought out and randomly introduced. There is still skill shortages - or people appropriately skilled - for many high-tech manufacturing propositions. There is still a bit of a nationalistic element up top suspicious of too much FDI. Malaysia and Indonesia are much better run from a business standpoint. Vietnam needs the archaic boomers out of the way and younger, more worldly and better educated people to come into leadership before this will improve.

It never ceases to amaze me Peters' take on Argentina, even though the educational part is true, we are far from being what we once were. We can still make satellites, or nuclear power plants. I sure hope he's right about this one. Greetings from Argentina.

My job is in manufacturing automation. I think it's going to be in Mexico and Southeastern US.

Would like to see the Philippines do well, they are some good hard-working people. 🇵🇭

I spent a month in Vietnam last fall, and seeing the growth and potential of the country then it will be interesting to see how far they can go over the next few decades.

I agree about Brazil, the demographic is bad, and the Infrastructure too, but I think the Philipines will do well, they have a growing population, an English-speaking population, and they aren't a big country. And they do well with the US.

I've been telling my friends for a while to keep your eyes on Vietnam, ever since I noticed more Nike shoes having "Made in Vietnam" tags compared to Made in China tags in the past. It always starts with clothing and then explodes into the more technical products being made. Hope they do well as I loved my visits to Vietnam and love the Vietnamese people as well.

Hi Peter - I'm surprised that you didn't mention *India* in this video! India definitely seems to be going ahead in leaps and bounds. They're building high-speed rail lines, for example - even high-speed freight-only lines. That's a really good sign. Their demographics seem to be pretty good too - a relatively young and well-educated population. I'd love to see you do a video on India and how you see their manufacturing future. Keep up the good work!

I'm wondering why he didn’t mention India.

One thing to also add is that there are people out there, going out of their way (depending on the product, some you just have to buy, but say for example cars) to buy their goods purely based on the grounds of if they support their country or not. Granted he is talking about "where is your stuff going to be made" and he is referring to populations and human labour. I guess I'm referring more not who will be making it, but who will be getting it made / selling it (and those can be EU/US based, even if made overseas). Also important to mention automation. One thing I hear very few people talk about is automation vs consumerism. Right now the way global markets are setup it won't work to automate everything. If there aren't people with jobs to buy anything, why are you "automating" everything to begin with. You won't be able to sell anything, because no one has any money, because you just have robots working (and your not paying the robots, nor would those robots want to eat food / buy clothes, etc). Say a farm. Robots work on the farm. Why? Who will buy all that food? Not the robots and the few people who do need to eat and do have money don't need as much. So the farmland will have to shrink. Also making that food even more expensive, etc.

It's a shame that countries with excellent manufacturing sectors like Germany, Japan, South Korea and Italy are also the ones with the fastest collapsing populations in the world.

Peter, you are so good at talking to yourself, such a useful skill for you! Good luck!

Mexico yes, Argentina has significant infrastructure issues to address (electricity mainly)

Indonesia is already being positioned to take much of the load from China. A quick look Bekasi and you will see the keiretsu's thoroughly represented, including their supply chains. The Japanese are rapidly shifting the existing offshore production. Indonesia also has a vast pool of degree level educated people. Indonesia will leave the SE Asian neighbours behind easily. They've already got the top level Japanese manufacturers there wholesale making their top end products for export.

I worked as a machinist for over 30 years. Every thing that I made has been outsourced to China, India and Mexico. Corporate America has invested billions of dollars to build this outsourcing infrastructure. I don't that they are ready to loose out on their investments.

Similar to Baja in the 80's, companies are setting up shop in Vietnam, right on the border with China. Chinese workers, Chinese management, Chinese technology, "made in Vietnam."

This is gonna sound sarcastic, but I'm genuinely interested to see what angle Peter comes at regarding last night's debate.

The word I'm getting from a contractor friend is that building materials (and a lot else) are being made of poorer quality to try to hold down prices. I think I'd rather things be made well so they last. :(

As an engineer that worked in Malaysia for years...they most definetly can do the high-end manufacturing. They were building high-end electronics 30 years ago and have only gotten better.

In Slovakia, population 5m, you already have 4 major car plants (VW, PSA, Kia, JLR), and a 5th (Volvo) is being built. Also a new battery gigafactory has also been announced.

I just purchased some equipment from a manufacturing facility being auctioned and shutting their doors in SF bay area. The equipment was no more than 2 years old, and the whole facility was popped up for a big contract that fell through. It's common in the area for the last few decades. They must make money doing it somehow, I just cant figure out how. I'm going to estimate 3 million dollars of heavy machinery, maybe 3.5. I talked to the auctioneer a bit, and he said most of the sales were going to India and that they're purchasing a lot of manufacturing machinery. Some also went to Texas of course.

It's gonna be a combination of many zones, US-Mexico, Indonesia-Philipines, Malaysia-Vietnam, India-Nepal, Taiwan-Japan-South Korea will be the prime zones for all kind of manufacturing with specialization in few, then Europian countries will have some specific industries.

Vietnam has a 1.1 birth rate and is looking losing half of its population in the next few decades with a hugely growing percentage of old folks and many fewer kids. How is that going to work out?

India. Reasons_ 1. Extremely young population at average age 28 2. Extremely high growth @8% gdp 3. Rapidly growing middle class i.e. >500 million 4. 15% infra growth rate year by year 5. Booming start-up ecosystem - with more than 127 thousand officially recognised start ups

Peter - you were right in my backyard! Greetings from Dana Point!

it all depends on the level of protectionism the various regions will settle on. For example if Europe starts having a MEGA movement + reversal of its environmental doctrine, it would very quickly industrialize, and the economies mentioned in the video would have a very hard time to sell in EU ...

Glad you're talking about a bigger and more important picture than the every four-year circus in the US.

Niguel shores is the neighborhood, Strands is the beach!

Thank you for your insights Peter! 🇺🇸🇮🇹🦅

Picking a single large country doesn't fit the De-risking goal. Imagine your enemies focusing their propaganda on one country.

Do you still think Biden will win the Presidency as you said a couple of days ago that "Biden will definitely win."

I am quite surprised he didn't mention India. There has been a lot of news about Apple diversifying their chipmaking into India and I'm sure many others are looking to India as well.

Mr. Zeihan, please make a video on your thoughts on the recent debate and your predictions for the 2024 presidential election

I would really love to hear Zeihan give commentary or detailed review of the June Presidential Debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. It was a horrible atrocity for America.

Can anyone give examples of what "high end manufacturing", for vietnam, would look like? My father is a retiring, master mechanical engineer. One of his dreams, was to go back to Vietnam and teach engineering. I would love for him to apply his skills, into developing a business in Vietnam.

One of Mr. Zeihan's drawbacks is his personal politics that sometimes blinds him to events. For more than a year, he has claimed Biden would win the election "in a landslide". Anyone paying even slight attention to Biden's deterioration would not have been particularly surprised by the recent debate performance. These stories had been discussed widely on X, with copious amounts of video during the past year. But because Zeihan dislikes Musk and proudly proclaimed his disdain for X, he managed to miss the biggest political story of the year. Biden might yet manage to win. But a landslide, it certainly won't be. That much has been clear for more than a year.

One thing I'd question on this argument is automation. Automation is from all I've heard, quickly replacing flesh and blood workers in many places as it's expensive to implement, but once implemented it's a free worker aside from power and repair costs (which is much less than having a wage + the various insurances and whatnot you need). Would that not make a NA move much more likely and attractive?

Why you never talk about Philippines? Politically as safe as Vietnam, and quality higher education system in English, since US occupation. And more than 100,000,000 filipinos ready to work!

Thailand ?

Peter should do a deep dive into SE Asia to see why after 30 years of promise the issues in each country have slowed and hindered their potentials. None of those issues have changed. None get fixed with capital.

Spot on. Hoping Viet Nam catches some good waves.

The trouble is, every trader wants another colonial Barbados, and every corporation wants to be a planter there. They won't come clean.

How is the sound in this video so good???

Jack Carr knows! Listening to Red Sky Morning and low and behold, Peter Zeihan pops up! Now I definitely like Jack more than before! Thanks Peter!

Argentina voted for the change- it deserves a bright future. Also it has a great neighbor with Chile. If El Salvadors model will be modeled in other countries and Chavism will be abandoned South America suddenly looks like a very interesting place. Africa might not produce computers and probably never will but at least they could make moves in better mobility, better infrastructure, agriculture etc. My fruits already come ready to eat from Ghana for example. Tourism is always attracting more folks too and Africans could manufacture bikes, bicycles and a lot more to increase profits from tourism. Also, remittances will soar ever higher each decade.

What about Australia?, we are close to india 1.4 billion people and you can put the factories near the mines the resources are being extracted from. Granted it would cost a lot for infrastructure but maybe do a special zone for it

How will the presidential debate affect the election? will we see the video on this?

Peter Zeihan still focuses a lot on Indonesia and Vietnam with a large blind spot on the Philippines even in the videos where he turns his eye to Southeast Asia. I'm not sure why, unless he doesn't have any contracts from clients that are interested in the Philippines, and that doesn't seem likely. What gives?

Hi Peter watch you all the time like your landscapes where are you today that you ran out of beach?

... So the second biggest consumerbase (eu) is too small for Zeitan?

We should learn from our past mistakes and move on from Asia

The problem with Argentina is that a “winner takes all” democracy like Argentina (and the USA) tends to alternate governments. The alternate government in Argentina is very toxic.

All tech companies I have worked with have shifted from using China as global manufacturing hub to a more domestic operation. Lots of moves to SE Asia, Mexico and USA.

Philippines ?

Argentina, the people of Argentina are so eager to work 12 hours a day, six days a week. LOL.

While I would obviously love it if the USA became a manufacturing hub, it breaks my heart that Africa can’t take China’s place. The youngest demographic on average and so much poverty, it would be such a massive boon to see African nations become massive manufacturing hubs to boost their economies and maybe bring some stability to the region. I’m especially rooting for Liberia, given the shared history with the USA and the Atlantic Ocean access is great for shipping to the West. And while this is a pipe dream, if Haiti could get some semblance of stability, imagine the good it would do to become a manufacturing hub.

Be proud of the companies that move back to the US, means they actually care about the American people.

Thanks!

If the British state would listen to the people and do a free trade deal with America it could have some locates there. Mississippi wages , only downside is high energy costs

A country also needs manufacturing hubs Eg engineers, designings, tool makers,

I remember grumblings on this issue back in the late 80's in engineering classes.

Will there actually be a different billion people consuming the stuff because wealth creation had moved?

Surely with robotics, the most efficient manufacturers will soon be the ones that have the cheapest, land, energy and materials, with the most stable politics and logistics?

I NEED TO KNOW where you got those sick shades. As a fellow Peter, please do me this kindness x

The scary thing about on-shoring is that it incentivizes policy that weakens the working class so they are cheaper, just like the dystopian (lack of) labor laws in the poorer countries we have had factories in before.

It was pure pleasure with those debates 🤓🤓🤓🤓

What of India?

The Philippines has young population over 110 million with high proportion of English speakers. The country already is the global business process outsourcing (call centers, bookkeeping, accounting, IT enterprise ) capital. Infrastructure has greatly improved and it is in the busy South China Sea and Western Pacific shipping lane.

He always seems to overlook the Philippines! Very large, young, college educated, English speaking workforce!

Indonesia and Vietnam are to close to China 🇨🇳- that can be Big problem in case of war 😏

DEBATE DEBATE DEBATE .... Please cover the possible debate effects & fallouts in detail.

Zeihan is an extremely good "prohpet"! We can be sure that, no matter what they says, it won't happen.

Thank you

It hurt him to admit Javier Milei was doing well.

Today is the day to go back through Peter's statements Joe Biden's competence. Then take what he says with a grain of salt. He drank the Blue Kool-Aid!

Thank you for your insights. God bless you.

I see this the same way. But more importantly!!!! Where did you buy these sunglasses?? Lovvve them!!

You usually mention the transportation infrastructure problems with central Mexico. It's poorly connected to the North. Fixing that will be expensive. Not impossible. Just expensive.

*Somewhere that primarily benefits the United States and its allies is the answer.

Rocking 80's shades

So EU with over 400 millions inhabitants does not have the consumption base??

didn't even mention India?

Peter, can you cover how well Biden did last night in the presidential debates? I think we are amazed at his strong comeback and ability to remain standing so long and ability to stay awake past 9pm. I was amazed. I never would have guessed he still had so much raw physical presence on stage. What is your take?

How do you record this with no background noise?

Peter's been saying China's going to collapse for decades and they still haven't. I don't doubt they might have an economic downturn but their entire market and production base is not going to just disappear overnight. It's far more likely to be somewhere in the middle

I can’t wait for your analysis on the presidential debate, Peter. Do you still think Biden will win in a landslide? Or will Biden even run?

Gotta make the stuff near where you use the stuff. 😅

Very good sound quality considering the noise from the surf.

One other MAJOR advantage of Southeast Asia is that it is on the water. That means extremely cheap and efficient transportation to anywhere else on the water.

It is about time there is a maximum age for president candidates. If the USA still wants to be taken serious in the world.

Guys this dude predicted Biden winning by a landslide so I would take this about as seriously.

Triumph motorcycles are made in Thailand. Royal Enfield motorcycles are made in Inda. Some limited runs made be made in England. These are heavily mechanical devices. But, Antilock Braking Systems, Electronic Fuel Injection and ride modes rely heavily on electronics.

I feel like he is forgeting automation and tech advances in manufacturing that will require less people to manufacture things. Also, people complain about the US military, but if manufacturing still remains relatively abroad and spread out there will still be a need for a decent Navy and Military cooperation to ensure safety at sea for a variety of things such as antipiracy ops.

Peter, waiting for new book 🤓

Vietnam and Indonesia are political horror shows. They do have the demographic numbers, but they also have extreme political criminals, horrible political systems - especially Vietnam and are prone to natural disasters. Indonesia more than Vietnam, but being the place where Pacific Typhoons go to die (after they ravaged the Philippines) isn't exactly a plus. I would look to Thailand a lot more than to Vietnam. Thailand occupies a geographic sweetspot, might well be the best location on the planet. They still have a good demographic and are far from being saturated in terms of construction, consumption and industrial development. Their weakness is the school system which suffers from a severe shortage of skilled teachers, but that's a problem they could address rather easily if they wanted to.

Great analysis ! Thank you for sharing !

Dream on! Peter Zei🤔