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Worst thing is the knowledge that if you don't get at least a 7% pay rise this year despite the bad market, you are literally taking a pay cut

When my wage as a nurse becomes close to either minimum wage or working at Tesco I’m leaving the profession. Less responsibility for same money.

Makes me giggle how they always claim to, 'make work pay'...... One relatable example is teachers. They had to go on strike several times to get 6.5% and benefits are going up by 6.7% 😂😂😂. Ridiculous place this country.

As I watched todays budget bilge I said to myself Sasha was right, these charlatans would take the credit for something they didn't do and hurt the disabled as a further punch on the nose of the British people. Well done Rishi Rich Sunak

This is what the Tories have been doing since David Cameron got into office. Post 2008 unemployment figures were _horrendous_ and wouldn't look better any time soon. The solution? Anyone unemployed longer than X period is no longer considered unemployed. They were "out of the workforce" or some bullshit like that. Month A unemployment is 8%. Month B, unemployment is 6%. Not because they found work, but because the numbers are so bad, they decided to drop them off the list. :) Good ol' Tory principles. If you can't improve the numbers, change how you calculate them, and call it the same thing.

Inflation is an engineered wealth transfer from public to corporations.

When I saw this video 16 minutes after it was posted, I said WE ARE SCREWED! And I hadn't even seen it yet.

i work for a government department in "finance" i can assure you our senior leaders are considerably more concerned with diversity, inclusion "wellbeing" and micro aggressions than they are about any actual work.

All I was thinking whilst watching the news was what's Sasha going to say about this 😂

No need to add "lying" or "scumbag" when talking about a politician, those things come pre-packaged as a part of the politician bundle.

I genuinely mean it when I express my stress and concern regarding the market crash and high inflation, particularly in relation to my retirement. I have been experiencing losses for quite some time, and while some may argue that crises can present opportunities, I am feeling overwhelmed. However, I understand that investing is a long-term endeavor, and it is crucial to maintain focus on the bigger picture and the long run.

I work for one of the major coffee chains and have done for over 15 years. The problem is they give you a contract which discloses a 10% reduction in your hours should the shop not need you. Every time they have to increase wages, they immediately reduce your hours so you either stagnate or loose. If you are on your reduced hours long enough they try to change your contract to suit the business. They are even starting to install pre-programmed machines (Nothing more than a glorified vending machine). Times are getting scary!

Its weird how the uk is stagnating and at the same time has very low unemployment 🤔

The OBR would have more success predicting next week's lottery numbers than any economic forecasts.

Speaking as a 59 year old on less than 12k a year... a cheap bag of frozen chips have gone from £1 to £1.69. Cheapest beans 27p. That's not really the problem. The problem is rent is 57% of my income, and that's pretty low for my area.

I'm glad I'm not alone in my distain for this budget.

With the revelations around the COVID enquiry and Rishi Sunak himself making comments like "let people die", it's clear to see where the Tories stand when it comes to supporting hard working Britains. This country couldn't be any more fucked if we tried.

Cardven token is awaiting major CEX listings. Its possible to hit 100x this year.

I believe Cardven token will go 100x after launch on Binance

UK politicians, taken the Great out of Great Britain.

The wage price spiral could simply be broken by companies accepting slightly lower profit margins and not increasing the prices. It’s not a wage problem as people can’t afford to make ends meet, it’s a greedy corporates problem.

Bravo, Sasha. Totally spot on. As an employer of 40 people, I will have to adjust my pay structure in accordance with the £24,000 a year minimum wage and consequently I will need to raise my prices in order to recoup the extra £1000 a week I will need to pay my staff, and that is on top of the extra £1000 a week from last year’s increase. The problem then is that many of my customers can’t/don’t want to pay the increase. I may revert to fraud, it’s easier

Sasha your humour is too good. I was in Poland yesterday at the Salt mines near krakow and some retired British bloke all he could talk about was the boats coming over 😂😂😂. My faith in the British public is worse especially the baby boomers who are some of the most entitled people ive ever met, this includes my mum!

The long con can continues, ppl are being fed more and more BS by the false prophets in public office.

2 years ago the Hungarian (tiny Eu country) government did exactly the same. Before election they cut taxes on large scale to win the election. We ended up a 25+ percent year to year inflation rate.

I don't know who has been getting these inflation busting pay rises? I am obviously in the wrong job.

Best video in the last few months. Would be good to hear how the situation could be improved or what we should do to prepare for the discussed future issues.

As a small business owner with 5 employees, my take 1. Rise in minimum wage, won't at moment affect me at present - but to take on a new employee, the hassle and cost to train them up is prohibitive I would try to go older and experienced. 2. It pushes All wages up as you can imagine a 40 year old with 20+ years work experience working next to a 20 year old with f@@£k all experience, it will force up wages. Big companies ie tesco paying Overton just to get staff. This forces wages up for all companies to retain staff ( ie doctors stating they can earn more at tesco) 3. Don't forget the 6% corporation tax increase on business means more pressure as well as wages to put up prices at a time when customer confidence if failing. Inflation falling as people are not spending 4. I pass on price increases if I can or I go bust. This is not a Conservative government its labour light. Can they get any worse.

All the major shopping brands, employees are no way on 30k or above... The fast food chains / restaurants are not even paying staff 30k a year.... And yet most like 5-8 million people are on around 18-25k a year

Food price inflation rarely gets mentioned when talking about general UK inflation but it is still crazy high and is not an optional expense for anyone. The big jump in minimum wage (which is what the vast majority of supermarket workers are on) is going to push up food another 10%. So for a minimum wage worker, of the 10% increase, 30% will be tax/national insurance and the rest will likely disappear on the weekly food shop.

omg! i read the work capability assesment blurb and it says 'rather than being automatically deemed unfit to work' That is so effing untrue!!! You have to fight bloody hard to prove you are unfit for work. That vast majority of rejection appeals (over 70% last i read, years ago mind) get over-turned!. My assessor said i was fit for work. The judge n doctor at my appeal took one look at me n slapped the company on the wrist and demanded the gov leave me alone for a minimum of 2 years -the max by law. The process caused such a deteriration in health that i went from being 'sofa-bound' to being 'bed-bound' and unable to process/understand/speak my language for an entire year! That was 9-ish yrs ago and from what ive heard, its only gotten harder up until the covid era. Blaming people who got long covid for not working and creating the 1mill empty jobs is not the solution, not their fault. it was the fault of uk covid policies that put them at risk -an island FFS!. And frankly, its not even the 'fault' of people with long covid being disabled, it that thousands of migrants left the uk during covid era and went home. They havent returned because of the toxic anti-migrant environment left in the wake of brexit^ So elderly tory voting population gets 8.5% n disabled get 6.7% when last year we got half of what we shouldve gotten inline with inflation -sounds perfectly fair to me, both groups on fixed income and noway to earn from a 2nd job, amiright?!? Be interesting to learn what pensions went up by last year^

High risk high reward strategy from the Tories, all they care about is maintaining control of the government. People will see wage increase and that might be enough to get them votes, at the cost of the economy. The Tories have proved shocking at managing the economy thus far, so this aligns with their previous performance. If they lose the vote then Labour inherit an even worse economy, which they will use as a talking point until the following general election.

UK GOVERNMENT DEBT IS GPING CRAZY IT WAS LESS THEN 1 Trillion Pound in 2010 now it is almost 3 Trillion Pound in debt.

I love how NI was increased to pay for social care and the NHS and now has just been reduced... With Social care and the NHS being at best the same but probably in a worse place so makes you ask why did they up NI if they weren't going to do anything with it.

I still think people are latching onto 2019 dreamland. Things have never been worse than what they are today and you're right nobody gives a shit about it, people are more concerned about affairs in other countries more than they are in their own. The older I get and the more I learn the more I start to realise how doomed we truly are.

Wage inflation spiral is complete BS. Our goods are made overseas. I was told that my pay needed to be the same to 'keep inflation low' complete corperate bs. This April, if I don't get at least 10%, im quitting.

Inflation isn't the only issue. Work should pay. Workers need to be valued above pensioners and benefit claimants. Of course the best way to do that would be to slash taxes and government spending. But since they're not going to do that, workers need to be paid more.

The whole situation didn’t make any sense to me , now I understand their three card trick, many thanks Sasha! , I think by the middle of next year thing are going to get very interesting.

Why is it that when inflation hits the price of goods and services can rise without issue, but the price of labour can't rise because that is "bad for the economy." If a business can charge 10% more for a loaf of bread, why can't I charge 10% more for my labour? It feels like inflation is allowed to benefit companies and the already wealthy by taking money directly from those with less.

Bravo Sasha. Keep fighting the good fight 👍

I will be the first to admit that we should all get more money in our wages, but if they keep increasing the minimum wage it will become unfeasible to run a business, or the product will cost so much we wont be able to afford it. The idea of everyone getting the money so they can live was a good one, but the business people were never going to pay for it.

Come on, the gov debt is only at £3 trillion. They can afford to give away some tax revenue 😂😂😂

This needs to be seen by the general public!

"The chancellor congratulated himself" That is the essence of Jeremy Hunt....

That Real GDP chart is one of the most misleading things I've seen in my life. just wow

Great video as usual. Could you break down wage rises into more sector by sector analysis in your videos. There is a wage price spiral in some area's, but there are a lot of area's where pay is static (and therefore being cut in real terms), which is causing a recruitment/retention/productivity crisis.

Increasing interest rates have a very real impact on inflation. That is why it is the main tool every country has adopted to fight the recent global inflation .

At this rate, anyone making 30k a year now will soon have 16 year olds on that wage, no point in saving because it will liquidate in a year

Government minimum wage rises, I agree are inflationary because they are not tied to improved productivity and only rely on new starts on new terms and conditions or job number lay offs, which will take time to show iin the data . But negotiated wage rises by companies are tied to work condition and terms/ perks changes !

If he really wanted to do something, move the tax thresholds back to normal! But NOOOO. We can’t do that can we Jeremy? 😂😂😂 8:12

In London you either have £50m or you're chosing between "heat or eat".

The problem is people don't understand economics well enough. It's not like it is thought in school.

If only PM Sunak could stop smiling as if Britain a world class economy without NHS waiting lists or enough housing stock. Fair to say any election called today would send many Conservative members of Parliament forced to seek other proper employment.

I have a terrible understanding of economic analysis, but you explain the situation and forthcoming storm, in a clear and concise way. I am reasonably shocked there wasn't a mention of a 'thunderdome' in the chancellor's budget, though maybe it will be funded by lottery grants?

The thing that pisses me off is them saying they're beating and cutting inflation yet, we'll never ever see a drop back to where it was. If you want to be useful, actually get prices down again. Parting themselves on the back when I just got an email saying my energy prices are going up. Wtaf!!!!!

Brilliant analysis as always and I just wish more people, especially financial journalists, could understand it. How about a video on the newly announced energy price cap and how that has completly screwed the energy market?

Employee wages can't go up if you have no customers. And once people start defaulting on car HPI/loans and mortgages, a few and the system can cope with it, on mass and the upside-down pyramid topples. Upside-down pyramid meaning there are very few highly skilled people who do stuff, stuff which can be exported and bring in money to the UK and there are loads of people in the service industry, service-service industry and service-service-service industry living off them at great expense.

Great job, Sasha! Keep going.

Energy prices as were announced in October 2021, 4 months before the SMO

Hey @SashaYanshin, how can one educate themselves more about what's happening in the UK? I watch your videos and I am learning so much, what other sources would you recommend? What books, what journalists, what other shows speak as you do?

Thanks Sasha for your content and insights, very useful as always and always look forward to your unique viewpoint. I also love your hair ♥

I appreciate your point about pay rise-inflation spirals. However, that would only apply if this was a demand-led inflation. It is not. It is underpinned by (Putin-induced) rising fuel and food prices - essential products where people no choice but to pay the increased cost. The higher prices of non-essentials (luxuries) have come about more slowly, as the impact of higher food and fuel costs work their way through the supply chain. Ironically, the ill-conceived and totally unjustified BoE interest rate rises are compounding inflation . . . and were never going to have any meaningful impact on this type of 'supply-led' inflation. People are struggling. Far from helping, the BoE has simply added insult to injury, stifling the economy and causing unnecessary suffering to families and businesses. Provided the BoE finally cognates reality and brings interest rates back down to ~2.5%, the economy can start to breathe again and no further 'significant' pay rises will be needed . . . and, more to the point, inflation will continue to fall, due to: (1) The natural reductions in food and fuel prices (2) Reduced mortgage rates (3) Reduced business costs (4) Competition in the market place, as retailers vie to re-establish their cashflow and customer bases

Bottle gas prices in Spain are at least half the price being charged in the UK. How is this possible? I literally paid €35 for two 12.5kg gas bottle refills today. I have seen a 12kg gas refill being advertised in the UK at £35, which is twice the price of 1 refill in Spain and for a slightly smaller bottle. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

I can't believe how anyone still believes in this hopeless government.

It's nothing short of salting the earth for the next government.

Thought this budget would be good for business. I thought that because they said it would be good for business. Or is it just good for big business and forget the SME's

Everyone's wages going up, while mine has stagnated since 2008.

Price inflation is just the delayed result of money supply inflation with some short term volatility superimposed (e.g. energy shortage).

"I am not a lying scumbag politician"- like👍🏼

Am I right thinking ONS in Feb24 will revise weightings of the CPIH model, whereby the OOC changes will have much more effect on inflation ?

Whats the solution? I love the way you analyse but would be good to know how we should fix this

So what can we as average people do to protect ourselves? Except for investing in global index funds. (Love the videos)

I was waiting for this break down 👀🤔

Why Ofgem is increasing the price cap if energy cost has fallen?

Sacha is always amazing. One of the growing number of web sites you get the truth.

Thanks Jeremy, I now get an extra £20 a month whilst my energy bills have sky rocketed by 100% whilst I'm not even home 6 days a week! Thanks!

The one thing the Govt did (continuing Liz Truss policy) was to continue the £2500 Energy Price Cap, without this the Oct Cap would have £3500, Jan Cap £4500ish which would have caused a much higher inflation rate accordingly....They subsidised our energy and stuck it on the National Debt which we will pay handsomely for in the years to come

I see now why they stopped making Yes Minister - there was too much competition from the UK Government. I really hope things improve for you guys. Also, Sasha, could you take a look at the economy of Austria? Given that all other NATO countries are spending more on defence, will Austrian economy not allocating as much of their budget on defence have a competitive advantage in the coming years?

Cheers Sasha, much appreciated as always!

If you don't work for government, and you private pension has an inflation cap of 2.5%, it's a killer. Those still growing their SIPPs can only hope longer term that their investment choices compensate for real inflation.

“Because I’m not a lying scumbag politician” 🤣🤣🤣

My area in the north east working people can not feed there families, they brought in zero hour contracts and employment figures went up even though people dont know what there hours will be week to week. This is why crime has increased. They talk about putting working wage up but thats a short term fix as peoduction costs go up, transporting good prices goes up that means shop prices go up and we are back where we started, the only winner is that the tax office gets more tax. They should cut tax to industry and get prices down, this would bring in more industry from abroad and innovation. Politics in the uk is corrupt there all linked to big business.

GDP and even GDP per capita (nominal) is also BS so I do wish you would ignore it unlike all govts. What matters is GDI and GDI per capita

I completely agree that these will impact inflation however I do think it should make inequality temporarily even if long term it will be an issue.

Thankyou!

Sadly, they all will complain when goes pop!

Sasha you are worth your weight in gold. You should have over a million subscribers.

6.8% for uc well thats a first most of the time it doesn't go up too bad its still a real time cut with inflation being 10% for the past 2 years

Sasha 4 Chancellor! Just out of interest, what would you do to stimulate growth if you were Jeremy Hunt?

Great vid. Thanks for talking my language.

Increasing wages causes some companies to put up prices but by not putting up wages people cannot afford their products and their sales drop requiring them to sack people and put up prices to cover costs. The real solution is fracking for cheap gas that is driving the US economy but depressing ours by paying excessive prices for their LNG. Allied to this is to make wind and solar companies pay for energy when they cannot supply as they do in Norway instead of paying them the opportunity price based on the price of imported LNG.

They always knew they would take the credit for making inflation go down, even though it would go down anyway

So in your opinion if it keeps going like you said, what will break?

I will admit, the schadenfreude about things being worse somewhere than my own country is real.

Well done Sasha

You do such a good job of breaking it all down in detail for us .There seems to be something missing in your analysis ref the wage price cycle. If the inflationary drive is rent mortgages etc, then surely the wage increases aren't driving prices. Its the set costs of owning renting. My wage increases in the NHS have been swallowed up by recent increase in my mortgage and I have less available to spend. Surely direct control of the underlying causes of inflation rather than squeeze the shit out of the public till there is a contraction would better? Rather than blaming it on the low paid and struggling.

I winced when they announced the living wage rise knowing it'll fuel this inflation wage spiral but whats the answer? Low income earners have had it hard enough to not increase their pay with inflation.

Keep stacking shiny metals and lead folks.

When you run a country for decades that spends on imports more than it receives in exports there's only one outcome no matter what - bankruptcy.