Brink Of Civil War? Economy Enter ‘Suffering Phase’, Threat Of Violence Real

Brink Of Civil War? Economy Enter ‘Suffering Phase’, Threat Of Violence Real | Adrian Day

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Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, discusses the the coming "suffering phase" for most people as interest rates stay higher for longer.
*This video was recorded on May 17, 2024
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:27 - Inflation
4:17 - Higher rates for longer
6:19 - Economic growth
13:42 - Labor market
16:00 - Fed monetary policy
18:00 - Ray Dalio's civil war prediction
23:00 - China sells U.S. treasuries
28:45 - Gold price recap
35:00 - Gold miners
41:19 - Gold price outlook
44:54 - Junior vs senior gold stocks
#stocks #investing #economy

Пікірлер: 344

@TheDavidLinReport Ай бұрын

Enjoy 10% OFF on all Hoverpens and free shipping to most countries with code DAVIDLIN North America & other countries: bit.ly/davidlin_novium UK & Europe: bit.ly/davidlin_noviumeu Do you think that the chances of a civil war in the U.S. are greater than 30%? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! FOLLOW ADRIAN DAY: Adrian Day Asset Management: adriandayassetmanagement.com/

@BoomBustProfits Ай бұрын

Lag Effects...especially of monetary policy are around 18 months.

@rogerburn5132 Ай бұрын

Adrian Day is Brilliant he works For Peter Shiff . 👍👍👍👍

@notgunnadoit7461 Ай бұрын

I believe the quote is more eloquent. "Very slowly at first and then all of a sudden!"

@masteryoda9044 Ай бұрын

The quote is originally attributed to a young entrepreneur Mia Khalifa 🎉

@petersheenan4482 Ай бұрын

@@adamtatusko "The Sun Also Rises" is the best piece of literature by ay Americsn author.

@romoore2094 18 күн бұрын

Like a mudslide

@adamson760 Ай бұрын

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” ― Henry Ford

@KoDeMondo Ай бұрын

You don't need an Oxford degree to understand that if you mindlessly give away money for ten years, encouraging people to go into debt, and then suddenly do the exact opposite, the country will go into disarray.

@MobyGoCollection Ай бұрын

^ This. And both guys will claim that they have the solution when neither one of them saw it coming.

@JaeCi-sh6fx Ай бұрын

People getting mad over who wins the election as if these two old farts aren’t two sides of the same coin 💀

@jonEmontana Ай бұрын

They are different on energy, regulation, public safety and taxes. Those matter.

@TomTom-du5qv Ай бұрын

@@jonEmontana It's rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, overall regardless of policies, both will add to the National Debt and as a result of the expansion of debt, increase inflation. It's just favoritism by using debt, and that works until it doesn't. We're rapidly approaching the point that it doesn't.

@ConfucianScholar Ай бұрын

If you believe Trump and Biden are two sides of the same coin, you're so numb to reality and so clueless that watching this type of video does you no good.

@aslkdjfzxcv9779 Ай бұрын

you see the trees...the rest alludes you.

@tinaevans825 Ай бұрын

@jonEmontana too bad they all serve the central bankers

@AKATenn Ай бұрын

I think we need to stop calling 5% interest rates high, just because they were lower than that for 20 years doesn't make 5% high.. The whole problem with the debt is people buying stuff with other peoples money, that needs to stop, and higher rates will stop it, but they need to be much higher than 5%.

@patrickduckbutt3249 Ай бұрын

I agree but our debt is so high it has a bigger impact unfortunately

@graemejones9707 Ай бұрын

The level of leveraging now versus 30 years ago makes 5% very, very high. Collapsing the housing markets to reset "traditional" rates and multipliers is not an option. The dollar would collapse. Instead what we need to do is accept that things always do and always will change.

@AKATenn Ай бұрын

@@graemejones9707 but we should not want a bunch of people to live in crushing debt for years or even the rest of their lives.

@JasperMulder100 Ай бұрын

As a South African, I am amused no end about people saying rates are high. My first house was bought at 19% interest rate. Your interest rates are pathetically low and the very cause of the mess your in right now.

@graemejones9707 Ай бұрын

@@JasperMulder100 And what was your salary and ratio of salary to loan? If people had listened to people like you 20 years "don't borrow high multiples" then they'd still be renting and homeless now! Nothing will change, it will break again and rates will collapse again and stay near zero. The only way out is end of fiat or a debt jubilee

@douglasthompson9482 Ай бұрын

I do agree with Adrian and many others. Millions of people are very agitated politically and financially. Education and society are in a deep demise. No rules, no religious convictions. Yes a major awakening is in the making….

@treeghost04 Ай бұрын

that is my problem... 1 truck with 200k, 1 car with 192k... I refuse to buy a vehicle at higher prices and high interest rates. I will keep fixing them.

@williamcarr3976 3 күн бұрын

Same here....1 truck with 355k and the other truck with over 500k and I ain’t buying another We are almost at Cuba levels though with parts, you can’t find parts and the ones you do find are junk

@dave5905 Ай бұрын

people need to wake up and realize politics is theatre. stop giving it your energy

@whetwilly1 Ай бұрын

First economist that I have heard from that strikes me as understanding the economy of the US population in total. Wealthy are doing fantastic. All the people living in gated neighborhoods and chatting in the executive suites have a very myopic view of the overall economy…Bottom 1/3r to 1/2 of people quality of life ranges from just hanging on to down right struggling. Potential for unrest increases proportionally to the widening gap between the haves and the have nots. In the past the “solutions” to these inequalities can be downright frightening.

@michaelferriss4594 Ай бұрын

Be debt free, have an emergency fund of 6 months expenses, invest your money, run debt free business (real Estae) pay your house off quickly. If you do this you are fine. Also do some prepping, grow a garden ect..

@cultleader3572 Ай бұрын

70% pay check to paycheck with debt raising the fastest ever. 😂

@mountainpadproperties Ай бұрын

Phenomenal interview. Worth listening to this all the way through.

@TheKietNguyen-dy1dz Ай бұрын

I totally agree with both of you guys about Asia are buying gold like crazy and in Vietnam all my neighborhood are buying it and they no taxes here when you buy gold 🪙 and it very easy to buy gold here 😊

@user-im6fy4qp6m Ай бұрын

what kind do they buy? coins or jewelry?

@TheKietNguyen-dy1dz Ай бұрын

@@user-im6fy4qp6m they buy one oz bare gold or one oz rings gold 🪙

@andrewpintex Ай бұрын

1@@user-im6fy4qp6m

@brandonsmith6965 Ай бұрын

they buy the fake stuff. lots of it out there

@Sergio_21M Ай бұрын

Barrick has stated their focus is in Copper moving into 2024.

@PonziZombieKiller Ай бұрын

We is doomed... Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell are killing off the poor peeps.

@leslieread556 Ай бұрын

Totally agree with Adrian's analysis...thank you both. -Leslie

@Michael-qy1jz Ай бұрын

Lower rates to ZERO again so you can WEALTH TRANSFER the rest of the Wealth to the very TOP!!

@SofaKingShit Ай бұрын

The rich love high interest rates because they are rentiers. They own the banks and whatever little they have in the bank pays high interest, so even though they themselves are the people who pay that interest the net result is lots of money for themselves. The fed wants to keep inflation high because then it's easier to pay back loans if you have trillions of largely worthless dollars floating around, like Germany post WW2.

@talisikid1618 Ай бұрын

No. Raise rates for top 20%, lower them for bottom 60%. Permanently tie the min wage and SS payments to the real inflation rate. Raise both to compensate for past inflation rates and tie SS to needs test. All wealth past $52k/yr is taxed at the earned rate and is subject to all federal taxes including SS taxes. This includes individuals and businesses. Unearned income can be taxed more than earned but never less. Let inflation, massive tax increases, and dedollarization reduce the drastic, third world wealth disparity that deficit spending and reserve status have created.

@genebaughbba3479 Ай бұрын

The minimum wage is immune to inflation. It is failed to keep up with inflation for over 50 years.

@davebrewer7170 Ай бұрын

Have you looked at what democrats are doing on the border? Why do you think wages are low at the low end ?

@grampagrit Ай бұрын

Copper is out of control. This will drive the economy over the cliff. 😮

@Chuck68ify Ай бұрын

It's what happens when you underinvest in such a necessary commodity. Thank the Bureaucracy .

@billspencer8540 Ай бұрын

Awesome ! - Accelerate !

@deborahcurtis1385 Ай бұрын

Buy gold and copper producers then.

@kasRose311 Ай бұрын

The “civil war” movie seemed like a soft threat.

@garybacher236 Ай бұрын

The huge difference is the cost of everything

@matteojensen5186 Ай бұрын

Has anyone started combining these market ratios with crypto data? Ive always felt like i could see the future of stocks by watching btc. I rarely pay attention to the stock market but I keep my eye on bitcoin whie actively trading all the time and I always find myself saying well this is different right before something big happens in the stock market. I give Bitcoin credit for the soft Landing. Not the Federal Reserve....I've engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.

@pascallaubin Ай бұрын

Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!

@Marty_Bent Ай бұрын

The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….

@maartenuil Ай бұрын

This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

@DetlefWerner-ph3fe Ай бұрын

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

@Matt-Carvalho2 Ай бұрын

I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here

@MrAnderson3 Ай бұрын

David really had to sell a pen LOL Sponsored by Wolf of Wall Street

@Notaslave1961 Ай бұрын

David’s hair rules!

@scepisle4970 Ай бұрын

David.. always listen.... great information... thx .❤

@PJ_MIKE Ай бұрын

Another great conversation! Thanks!

@Reflect50 Ай бұрын

Great guest. Thank you both very much !!!

@user-cg8yw1uc3v Ай бұрын

Jewelers don't benefit from higher gold prices they profit from sales and making charges if retail is down how is anyone benefit

@nancygreen8186 Ай бұрын

If it was just a few months of inflation that's one thing, but when it's years of inflation and that higher cost continues it gets more and more and more of a strain on the budget. It keeps stealing more and more of your money or it will put you more and more into debt .

@stevejames3857 10 күн бұрын

I couldn't go one podcast without hearing that Hemingway quote 😂

@robertlehr4702 Ай бұрын

What the hand does the mind remembers. ~ Maria Montessori

@chriss729 18 күн бұрын

David your interviews are great, with such a diversity of excellent guests. I also really enjoy your direct style of interviewing, very little fluff and straight to business.

@mechannel7046 Ай бұрын

31:00 GLD, gdx. Western consumers not buying gold, but eastern countries are 35:00 gold miner stocks still hugely discounted

@1FrenchConnection1 Ай бұрын

The huge difference today is the globalization is not there anymore also.

@b.janecowie1033 Ай бұрын

Thanks for continuing to have great and very interesting conversations with old men... Who are articulate and have a lot to say based on their experience. Providing a large variety of perspectives is so informative.

@nickt007007 Ай бұрын

Great interview David, and well, Adrian makes it easy. He is in a class of his own when it comes to thoughtful answers that don't go off on a tangent, and he is always very aware of the most recent events and investing environment.

@rudeawakening3833 27 күн бұрын

GREAT guest !!!! Stellar job David Lin on this MOST useful and informative interview !!!

@StevenReyWolf Ай бұрын

32:17 more people are calling to sell gold than buy isn't because of lack of interest, it's because people need money right now to make ends meet.

@dave5905 Ай бұрын

Most people who own gold aren't the type to sell it for food... think about that.

@petersheenan4482 Ай бұрын

Most people are stupid.

@b1burck Ай бұрын

Another great interview...we need more people to understand what drives inflation, the markets ..why gold is important

@tomdonovan4842 Ай бұрын

Good review

@Ascendsean35 Ай бұрын

Sigh, to sell the house before the election before i get stuck in a place i don't want to be. Or not to sell and lose the interest rate and cheap mortgage. Stressful year and time is ticking..

@lisadinthongsai1383 Ай бұрын

Me too, what to do?

@genestone4951 Ай бұрын

imo, plan to sell house before end of 2028. That's my plan, likely 2026.

@Ascendsean35 Ай бұрын

@@genestone4951 yeah could be right. I just do my best to put as little $ as possible into anything that isn’t structural or increases the value. It’s super bare inside lol. What gives you that timeline though?

@ZenStrive52 Ай бұрын

David is doing a basic marketing HR interview with the PEN!

@robertruiz8704 Ай бұрын

Great interview, enjoyed Mr. Day's insight .

@masteryoda9044 Ай бұрын

What do you guys think of the hover pen ?

@levratalex4929 Ай бұрын

Great content

@TScott-vp9zv Ай бұрын

Thank you for the hope and inspiration about the future of the economy!😬🥴

@christopherbic7688 Ай бұрын

Why isn't principle on the national debt being paid down? Hmmm

@pauldemeester9298 Ай бұрын

Perhaps the government could reduce spending severely add remaining with the current interest rate for a period of 10 years would squash inflation totally , the key is to reduce spending

@p51mustang24 Ай бұрын

If government reduces spending the it will put the economy into recession, which will lower tax receipts and paradoxically increase the size of the deficit …which is inflationary.

@j.corona8118 Ай бұрын

Who’s the star, of this interview David. CNBC has nothing on David.

@davefromkansas5600 Ай бұрын

When the yield curve un-inverts, history has shown all hell breaks loose.

@wheatcandle Ай бұрын

Watching this interview with Adrian made my Day!

@wheatcandle Ай бұрын

Is Adrian A Day Trader?

@LukeT- Ай бұрын

Love this.

@user-gc5tk9fd7g Ай бұрын

Excellent!! Program!

@graceamsterdam5404 Ай бұрын

Thank you gentlemen.

@sushmashrma-ts7nw Ай бұрын

Been tracking Revux's development. Impressed with the progress!

@damncars2618 Ай бұрын

What's the prediction for reaction to SSI cuts?

@pmh1nic Ай бұрын

Short term I don't think it will happen. Long term it's going to happen. At a minimum slower growth, higher age requirements, higher SSI taxes.

@georgeboutwell6069 Ай бұрын

Credit rates… other consumers credit facilities are going to go up even with no more hikes and even with rate cut. Credit is going to be continental will go up even with Fed Reserve is dismantling

@christopherdavies8839 Ай бұрын

That guy knows gold

@rohit_gaming823 Ай бұрын

Revux's impact on payment could be revolutionary. Glad to be in early!

@Jdhsjdgjshdhdh Ай бұрын

Just increased my holdings in Revux. Feeling confident about this one!

@robertdagge200 Ай бұрын

100% tarrifs on foreign EV's sounds inflationary.

@lotfyken2759 Ай бұрын

Adrian one day or another gold will go up above it's inflation adjusted ATH

@PushpanderRawat Ай бұрын

Revux's team is top-notch. Expecting big developments soon!

@TGRMANISHGAMER01 Ай бұрын

Revux's roadmap looks promising. Exciting times ahead!

@mutantryeff Ай бұрын

DIMON is just another way to write DEVIL

@ednorton47 Ай бұрын

The South will rise again!

@Carnivorelion Ай бұрын

These predictions are ridiculous. We could be at 2500 be end of week lol. Predicting 3000-4000 this year far more realistic. No way this rally is even close to being over.

@billadama Ай бұрын

Sell me this pen, David.

@hughjass7914 Ай бұрын

The Chinese bond sale is cyclical. Heavy for the cycle, yes, but within norms unless and until it extends to next year, Q2 or so.

@vijjreddy Ай бұрын

WELL, SUFFERING IN USA MEANS PEOPLE ARE DRINKING MCDONALD COFFEE INSTEAD OF STARBUCKS COFFEE... HARDLY MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE

@PonziZombieKiller Ай бұрын

Not at all. .

@momomama2510 Ай бұрын

Not this time brother

@stevechilcoat2353 Ай бұрын

Costco has some pretty good organic coffee, too. 10 dollars a bag only.

@simonlo9956 Ай бұрын

Americans are spoiled. We just don’t know it.

@_m_K_. Ай бұрын

Back when McDonald's had $1 coffee, it was really good. I was a well balanced medium/ dark roast with a good flavor. Then it changed. I think maybe around 2017 or so, they changed it up. I dont dei k it everyday, so if you only have it every fre months you can notice the difference. Starbucks has always tasted like a burnt dark roast coffee, with washed out flavor. Initial dark roast taste but no real flavor. This is why all their money comes from blended drinks.

@michaelbananas461 Ай бұрын

The almost certain scenario, if you have even a basic understanding of history and human nature, is that things will not improve and return to some semblence of normality under the existing monetary system we have. It will deteriorate further and further until the pain is so great that the alternative is better, and a new monetary system will come into effect. Drug addicts dont turn towards religion or go to rehab halfway down the spiral towards meltdown, they hit rock bottom and have nowhere else to go but up or death.

@allen2zulu Ай бұрын

government wants inflation. It is an effective tax increase for the poor (more income to tax with less wealth)

@thezyg6311 Ай бұрын

Is this finance or QVC?

@dassa0069 Ай бұрын

Mr Twain how did you go broke? At first slowly and very very gradually and then suddenly and all-at-once!

@RajeshKumar-nu5gf Ай бұрын

Presale investments have been my go-to, and Revux is my latest pick. Early birds catch the worm!

@aslkdjfzxcv9779 Ай бұрын

cvl wr? i wish, but the left and right are in a dom/sub relationship, respectively.

@Fddhjdthnbcfseyhvg Ай бұрын

Great video. Thanks Adrian and David, this is one of the most useful insights I have heard in awhile. Strong dollar and elections are going to dampen gold, but when it comes alive again, that means it too late to stop it

@randolphwilson5192 Ай бұрын

Might have to get that pen!🤔

@Stonks519 Ай бұрын

You want to be in sales huh? Sell me this pen. David: "Hold my beer"

@Chuck68ify Ай бұрын

Maybe we should let the market decide what the cost of money is? Crazy, I know. 😊

@aheroictaxidriver3180 Ай бұрын

All markets are rigged. The only reason to have a market is to rig it.

@bootangy Ай бұрын

pens?

@acegolfman3203 Ай бұрын

David using topix spray on hair? Seems like a thicker tuft

@Reza16888 Ай бұрын

I always skip your ads. Don't do it. We skip it. We don't watch them.

@user-lb8bg6kj9m Ай бұрын

He has got to make money for the free content he provides.

@JayK99 Ай бұрын

Have been hearing since the last 2 years that Economy is in suffering phase, yet the asset prices keep on going up including the risky one's and people are fine. One day we will see recession but no body can predict it.

@GlassICE Ай бұрын

David, ur video's title says something but Copper n Silver prices says something else :/

@scrambaba Ай бұрын

Hoverpen is cool. Like that it is refillable.

@tooolip7408 Ай бұрын

I LOVE writing my hand. Pens= brilliant!

@gwoodlogger4068 Ай бұрын

There will be a caretaker government because both candidates will be on life support😮

@user-hr8ip2om8k 16 күн бұрын

People getting sick of the fact that people out here having to choose between getting a broken tooth pull that hurts bad or fit their family.

@julietrapp1764 Ай бұрын

David, why would you have a conversation about gold and not bring up Bitcoin? Are their rules in these interviews?

@2nostromo Ай бұрын

well somebody is buying gold stocks. some of us have been DCA-ing for years waiting for the coming surge. Slowly at first then BOOM Alice... to the moon.