The spice must flow

Everyone in the oil business burst out laughing when the politicians crowed about their oil sanctions. "A few problems with oil quality" in the US if we quit exporting? AYFKM? I think PZ is spending a too much time in Aspen, Davos, etc. What's good for elites isn't necessarily good for America or Americans in general.

We basically want Russia to export oil to China and India, otherwise the oil prices would go sky high globally. They won’t pay over the gap price; in fact, they’re not paying even that. And Ukrainian drone strikes to refineries have been awesome. They lower the price of oil, because Russia needs to buy their refined oil product (gasoline) elsewhere, and they can only pay for it by exporting oil. More oil production has lead to lower oil prices.

I don’t believe that American refineries are geared to process American crude. Refineries are built to handle particular types of crude.

EU imported close to 2 billion euros worth of fossil fuel from Russia in May 2024 according to CREA, the Finnish think tank. This is close to what India imports. Most of these fossil fuels are transported by ships and are insured by EU/Norwegian/British companies. Yet, Western media points finger at China, India and Singapore for importing Russian fossil fuels.

Europe being dependent on Russian or Middle Eastern energy is the Achilles's heel. but at the same time I've heard Norway has been making lots of profit ever since the war in Ukraine started because lots of European countries started buying energy from Norway instead. but keep in mind Norway doesn't have huge oil reserves compared to Russia or Middle East. almost impossible to be completely free from blood money and dictatorships that have abundant natural resources.

Off topic... Is Peter reconsidering his prediction about a landside Biden victory in November?

There are no sanctions on Chinese Government Shipping companies ferrying Russian oil. Or... The Chinese don't care.

I would pay to go on trips with peter Zeihan. 10 days backpacking across Europe, a week in the rockies, an extended excursion in the Pacific Rim. Geopolitics and Geography!

Peter thank you for your insights always 🇮🇹🇺🇸🌍🦅

Love your breakdowns Peter!

What's preventing letters of marque and reprisal being issued by Ukraine against Russian shadow oil transports? Privateers could easily overcome the deck crews (both of them) and continue the delivery of oil to China and India, only under a different Ukrainian flag? It would be impossible to protect each vessel, even in convoys. And who's going to tell me that China and India would balk at the hurdle of ethical lapses in buying that stolen oil for yet half of the price Putin had given them? After the first is set aflame in a contest, the rest would quit.

We could waste far less on passenger vehicles. Build more trains in cities, make walkable and bikeable neighborhoods, favor electric and smaller vehicles. This saves an enormous amount of money and reduces cancer-causing, brain-damaging air pollution. Car-dependent suburbs are one of the worst decisions the US ever made.

It's ok when Peter stays optimistic, but I love when he make us shiver.

Oil and coal have ruined us. The second problem is that few realize the magnitude of this catastrophe. The atmosphere is drenched with greenhouse gasses and modern nation-states have failed to mitigate this titanic problem. Look towards West Antarctica: January-March 2028. Robert Frost will be half right.

Off topic here, but a short video of your thoughts regarding the outcome of the "Biden / Trump" debate and the SCOTUS immunity ruling and how this might impact the November election would be interesting.

How is Peter so affluent that he is in a different region in each video. I aspire to reach this lifestyle.

Beautiful scenery. Peter is living the life!

“20% that are no longer registered to anyone”….. Read THAT again, and ask yourself what that means…. I feel like that is the most important statement of Peter’s post. That’s what you call a GIANT advantage. Perfect example of a part of what is wrong….. Thanks, Peter. I may not agree with some of your statements, but this information forces us to rethink what we are watching occur.

Qatar for gas, US/Saudi/Kuwait & UAE for oil. I don't see a problem in cutting off Russia 101%. Greed & politics seem to always get in the way.

Let's say Denmark starts blocking passage for russia's shadow oil tankers on account them being potentially hazardous for the environment? Russia can't do much about it legally, since those vessels sail under some other flag.

zeihan is the goat of the unemployed friend on a Tuesday meme

Ask Peter: Can you comment about the recent fluctuations in the Chinese bond market?

Thank you

Profit is that matters, so as long as the price is down the profit is low.

Your audio is suprisingly good even though most of your videos are outside.

IN the 70s I was fishing in Delaware Bay amongst more than 20 tankers not unloading their fuel. It was dare.

Thank you for being rational in this video.

Sorry Peter but I think you're missing the easiest thing America can do to put Russia out of business And that's simply to produce more oil domestically. Once the price of oil drops it doesn't matter how much Russia sells.

I never thought Peter Zeihan would be advocating for world war III.

Stupid question BUT well needed question. Nice

So what is gonna happen to the price of oil assuming you are able to cut off 5.3 million barrel a day?

USA has for some strange reason hasn't set a goal for the dissolution of russian empire. US government said that it wasn't after regime change, or the balkanization of russofascists. it's playing with fire.

Not yet....not ever.

US refineries aren't able to process shale oil due to the composition, the majority of what we use as fuel is imported still.

#Probably .. solid buffer video. I'd imagine it's a good thing to have a handful of these on hand to keep the dailies coming while avoiding pressures to weigh in on current affairs. The 'prettier' the backdrop the better. 'IF IF IF' something like this 'probably' happens, curious what cover would be used to keep the public 'distracted' as it unfolds?

So invest in oil companies....lol. I picked a Canadian one myself. Pretty isolated from the craziness of war as it mainly exports to the U.S. and its a short safe transit.

Because energy is the master resource without which you can do nothing. It'd be like a tree cutting off its leaves

There you go!

This brings up a side benefit of EVs: increased demand elasticity for oil. For familles that have both ICE and BEV cars, they can switch as prices signal supply constraints.

Isn't USA production high enough at this point that USA can make up for any oil lost by Russia?

The united states is not crude oil independent. It's a mistake people keep touting. Our alleged energy independence is based on a misunderstanding of the term “barrels-of-oil-equivalent” (boe). Shale is a very light form of crude, when a well is fracked a lot of NGL’s come up with the crude. NGL’s are not crude, yet many people conflate the two together; making it seem as if we are producing 20 Mbbls/d (see EIA reports: we still import a lot of oil). The U.S. exports about 2.5 Mbbls a day of these NGL’s (ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, and pentane). Here is the real math: the gasoline needs of the U.S are about 370 Million gallons per day, that needs 20 Mbbls/d of feedstock (about 19 gallons of gasoline produced in the refining of a barrel of crude). Any way you cut it we need to import 6 Mbbls/d, which is just what the EIA reports (we produce about 13 Mbbls/d of crude). Now, what happens is we don't need all the ancillary products produced (Jet fuel etc), and so we export those when we can, but if we tried to run our economy on our crude alone we would be woefully short of gasoline. Hence, we are not energy independent and cannot "shut" ourselves in.

2:40 Well, there also was that debate.

Russia - as other producers - are not selling oil just for exporting but for making profit. So main question is price vs cost. Production costs in Russia are higher than say Saudi Arabia, then come costs for transportation. Logically Russia should be allowed to export crude, as much crude as possible - but at prices that do not allow them to really make money, at no or almost no profit. Russia needs to sell crude oil not only for the financial returns, but also because production cannot simply be stopped and resumed without additional problems and costs.

The geopolitical fallout may very well be a constraint, but the market isn't. If we zeroed out Russian oil over the course of no more than a year or two, OPEC countries could take up the slack. They are all producing at reduced rates in order to prop up prices. They can't just turn a few valves, but they know exactly where the oil is and exactly how to produce more. The U.S. can step up shale development, too, not as cheaply as OPEC, especially in the Middle East, but at a price point well below international disaster. And finally, within limits, higher oil prices are a very good thing for our Planet, because that is really the only thing that will discourage continued use of petroleum at environmentally unsustainable levels. It is folly to think we can control the Earth's temperature while ensuring abundant and cheap fossil fuels for anyone who wants them.

Does the west even want russia to stop pumping up the energy found on their land and giving it to others for mostly fiat currency? I know india rather had oil than rupees, because rupees they can print whenever. As long the side benefiting the most of the transaction isn't russia its beneficial to the west. The world needs the current energy supply, and the west knows that as well. You can't just shut down a major player and expect things to continue rolling

Or......we could INCREASE our production.

Is that one of those anti-theft transponders on the back of the shirt? It sticks out above the right shoulder occasionally

wait, what happened to their pipes will freeze up?

Can’t we pirate the unregistered fleet, and sell the oil to the customer markets at discounted rates? Oil still makes it and Russia doesn’t get paid.

What’s Beryl have to say about US refining?

It’s a month and a half from Russia to China by tanker ship. “Many a slip, twixt the cup and the lip” is the old saying.

The answer is, and has always been, is to REDUCE our dependence on oil.

I'm sorry, but the notion that we ought to pursue peace in a way that "breaks Russian power" and "destroys their income" is absurd. How do you think that plays out? I'm sure Professor Mearsheimer, who has forgotten more about great power interaction than Peter knows, would have a different take.

We aren't able to sever our oil imports because our refineries are setup to process sour crude only while we produce light sweet crude from our oil fields.

Great video, but I’d say Joe as a populist has already fallen from favor and his chances of reelection or even staying on the ticket are low at this point. IMO we should restrict exports to build a supply surplus in the US and then pull away from Russian oils. They have to work closely with onshore refiners and drillers, but trade for an ease on regulations and it’s a win for everyone.

Have you heard RFK's position on the Ukraine war? His history is interesting on the subject.

That all sounds like a major escalation, is it possible to stop Russia without "breaking" them?

Peter has finally figured out that Russian crued isn't going anywhere. If anything sanctions are making Russia/China even stronger. Makes for a scary world in my view.

All these questions make sense till September.

*Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $12,000 and got my payout of m $270,500 every months,God bless Christy Fiore🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..*

"...if...if...if..." 😄

Short answer globalization

Of course we can

Remember when Trump brought this up at the UN where he slammed Germany over the Russian energy reliance and he got mocked?

After the debate Trump v Biden have you changed your mind on the outcome of the presidential election?

If the theme is hurting Russia, why bring up ending American exports? Seems off topic and like it would only help Russian oil prices.

now it happens that i live where the bottleneck for thses ships is aka between Swedens westcoast and the Danish eastcoast. I also happen to be a decent sailor both with engine and sail. I also happen to haven a boat myself and close relatives who has decen sized ships. Now the question is could i pull of a jack sparrow wig?. In all serioness though a couple of fishing vessels could easily sail out and drop fishnets infront of the tankers thus quickly stalling their shedule without technically involving "Nations".

Answer: Oil has near inelastic demand. Oil is THE commodity no one can live without.

Glad you stated the obvious as many so not understand this dynamic. We could also go the opposite way. If world oil expanded rather than contracted we could flood the world with cheap oil, making Russian oil both more expensive and less desirable. This would solve the issue with more positive results. Unfortunately the greenies are in control and we would still have deflationary issues and the current administration is not super friendly with most of OPEC so good luck asking to have them increase production.

Ignoramus here, how quickly can we decouple western economies from oil? I know it would take decades but would love to hear a take on what would need to happen - and how the hell we’d be able to keep agriculture going on the scale that we’re used to.

I had thought that the way the oil sanctions were working was that the price Russia could obtain was to be limited rather than the volume. I thought this to be quite cunning. Especially Russia having to sell oil cheaply to India and have them get the profit from refining it.

Why not interrupt all their food exports as well?

So...build Keystone, Day ONE!

Or institute an oil Export Tariff, which forces domestic oil price cheaper.

Part of the reason Putin started the war when he did is because he calculated that the US energy policies and current ideological vector would incapacitate effective response, while also enabling the isolation of the US allies who realized they'd suffer less if they selectively partner with Russia since the USA is unable to make up the difference. I have realized this easily Peter, and I don't even wear cool sunglasses.

It's a lot easier to understand you when you aren't struggling to breath.

That's a top-tier colonial mentality 😂😂😂😂

Hi Peter Zeihan here from Io, one of Jupiter's moons. 😂.

If the US drilled oil & gas and exported to countries currently buying from Russia, and Arab oil countries did the same, wouldn't that have an impact on Russian economy?

But you said months ago that the sanctions would hurt Russia 🤔

imagine doing shady oil transport by using ships that can be used else and are badly insured, the hassle of over pumping it in other ships on the sea, all in order to be able to pay MORE for it.

I’m not sure if this the place to ask ‘Peter series’ but where do you see the Uk going with what is mostly likely going to be a Labour government?

I’m genuinely curious. Does he do a few hours of monologue while on these trips or is he just getting around that often to do one here and there

Allow Iranian and Venezuelan oil into the market then we can stop Russian oil completely.

b.s. increase U.S. export while breaking russian

Not so stupid a question: Do The Ananconda Solution enforced by the USN? Inderdicting the illegal smugglers? Ah, you got there at the end. Loved that long sigh. Make it so.

The strategy to take out refineries forces the export of crude and the barrel prices will organically decline. By the fall of 2024 oil will be below $70 due to massive supply.

Because corruption has spread outside russia.

2:45 “Populist government like Joe Biden’s” Zeihen is a world class gaslighter.

Why does every oil crunch cause increased oil company profits?

From 3:20 so the US is a net exporter of fossil fuels ? I'm not informed on that, but I'm assuming that would be because of shale oil, and fracking.

Real answer. Less wealthy countries found, when the high and mighty europeans capped russian oil and gas, that the prices went up because the europeans went elsewhere and pushed up their regular suppliers oil prices, so they bought russian oil and gas. In particular India doesnt subscribe to western political objectives so they dont care where they get their oil. Also, europeans want to make life difficult for the russians, but not at the expense of their own comforts. If you want to have a competition to see who will suffer a lower standard of living, western europeans or russians, my money is on the russians every time.

Oil is not the issue its LNG Europe is buying more gas from Russia than it has ever done and some UK companies are facilitating the transport of the gas see the recent Sky News investigation into this

Happy Fourth!!!

That is the French Mediterranean coast. I recognize it.

These videos must be all prerecorded otherwise Peter would have put out a video on Biden’s terrible debate performance.

My understanding is we don't have Deisel here. We have light oil in the US, and that supply is getting thinner and thinner. Pun intended. We mix our light oil with heavier oil to produce deisel to be able to produce refined products above gasoline. I'll let you Google the refining process. But basically if we don't have the heavier oil to add into the refinement mix, we don't get kerosene, petrochemicals (plastics) jet fuel, asphalt, lubes, things like that. We are going to HAVE TO conserve our resources. The carbon pulse is on the decline.

isn't this one reason more for electric cars ? and for mass transit ?

Energy is the cornerstone for running the whole world. Oil, coal and gas are still big business and the primarary energy ressource for many countries around the globe, even solar and wind energy is on the rise, like also more nuclear energy is coming...its a tricky question what can happen and where the world will go if the energy supply is disturbed and prices go up because the world right now is in geopolitical turmoil and the contradictory political systems are positioning themselves to get the upper hand...overall its freedom, justice, fairness, democracy and liberty against tyranny, oppression, fascism and dictatorship going on in half of the world against the other half