The BHS Pennines Section presents current hydrological research carried out by PhD students at Newcastle University. The sessions are aimed at members from across the country, on a range of topics.
Speaker: Keith Shotton
More than 20% of the global population depend on mountain runoff for their water supply. Due to its importance for future water resources, as well as flood and drought planning, an improved understanding of spatial precipitation patterns in mountain regions is needed. Gauge networks are sparse and traditional methods of interpolation yield inadequate precipitation fields for ungauged and poorly gauged catchments.
This project uses a cutting-edge method to generate multiple random spatial precipitation fields, conditioned on gauge observations, initially for a test catchment in the Canadian Rockies. Selection of suitable fields is optimised using streamflow measurements via an inverse modelling approach. Sensitivity of these fields to seasonality, elevation and precipitation phase is tested. The project aims to identify global-scale ingredients for random spatial fields in mountain regions and to explore how climate change impacts these elements. Spatial fields will be generated using other stochastic methods to evaluate the new method. Long time-period flood frequency curves generated using each approach will be compared. Different methods of phase partitioning will be evaluated to identify impacts on extreme flooding which is often controlled by snowpack melt. Climate change perturbations will be applied to generate potential future flood estimates.