Let's Talk Turkey (BIG Strategy Changes) || Peter Zeihan

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Zeihan on Geopolitics

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Жыл бұрын

There's been a lot of movement in Turkey's neck of the woods, so the Turks have had to change their stance on several issues. Given Turkey's strategic positioning and importance, expect huge regional implications.
Full Newsletter: mailchi.mp/zeihan/lets-talk-t...
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Zeihan on Geopolitics website: zeihan.com/
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#turkey #policy #nato

Пікірлер: 1 300
@richardmeade2477
@richardmeade2477 Жыл бұрын
It's good to see him finally getting to the top of this mountain he's been climbing the past 4 months.
@AdamWaltersPDX
@AdamWaltersPDX Жыл бұрын
He unlocked closed captioning
@MattsAwesomeStuff
@MattsAwesomeStuff Жыл бұрын
LOL at both of you. Gold.
@MalPhunktion
@MalPhunktion Жыл бұрын
@@AdamWaltersPDX Hopefully he'll unlock undistorted audio next...
@DMT4Dinner
@DMT4Dinner Жыл бұрын
Lol
@F14AB
@F14AB Жыл бұрын
Lmao
@JFRiley
@JFRiley Жыл бұрын
Pretty sweet that this travel channel comes with such cool bonus content
@microvuette
@microvuette Жыл бұрын
😂
@kyleme9697
@kyleme9697 Жыл бұрын
"International Fugitive"
@quirkmaster3064
@quirkmaster3064 Жыл бұрын
Winning
@vladislav3
@vladislav3 Жыл бұрын
Gotta get Peter a microphone windscreen.
@knoll9812
@knoll9812 11 ай бұрын
Stick a sock on it
@Erik_Ice_Fang
@Erik_Ice_Fang Жыл бұрын
THIS is the sort of in depth analysis of a country's decision making that I always craved when I was in the military. Every country has its own unique logic, and it usually takes years of study to figure out even some simple pieces that are different from your own country.
@MrMikkyn
@MrMikkyn Жыл бұрын
You might like Peter Zeihan’s book Disunited Nations. I read that one and it was good. He has a more recent one too
@samorpeterenpretene9184
@samorpeterenpretene9184 Жыл бұрын
You might like Alexander Mercouris’ page
@davin1287
@davin1287 11 ай бұрын
How are able to type and coddle this guys cock and balls at the same time? It's genuinely impressive.
@inveenhuizen
@inveenhuizen 11 ай бұрын
Zeihan totally skipped on the local, domestic politics though. Again. As a true Yank. Erdogan has recently cemented his position as leader again...
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@@inveenhuizen As someone who follows Turkey, they're one of the few nations where their domestic policy generally doesn't play a huge role in their foreign policy. For example when they were locking Sweden out of Nato, even all the opposition parties were on board. These types of strategic decisions generally don't shift with changes in governments or political winds in Turkey. It's an odd thing but there are plenty of reasons for it.
@devonscotttaylor
@devonscotttaylor Жыл бұрын
The captions are a nice touch. I love your quick and remote content; it's only a little bit annoying when the audio is choppy. CC makes up for it.
@demun6065
@demun6065 Жыл бұрын
Does anyone else find it odd that the audio seems to drop off, a lot? I get that wind is involved, but to that degree?
@davidbarry8206
@davidbarry8206 Жыл бұрын
Packing a windscreen or a little mic with a windscreen would be worth it. The audio by itself is not listenable to these ears…
@mistasomen
@mistasomen Жыл бұрын
Or just wait with recording your video for 5 min u til you're less wind exposed?
@JasonField
@JasonField Жыл бұрын
@@demun6065 i think he gets someone to edit if you do a quick wind reduction effect in e.g. audition, it can completely remove some sections of audio which If not QC'd then seems like its a call dropping out.
@terbentur2943
@terbentur2943 Жыл бұрын
@@mistasomen I always get the impression that Peter is kind of a spontaneous guy and suddenly feels like talking about this and that with a nice background as a plus.
@ahmetbozkurt8330
@ahmetbozkurt8330 Жыл бұрын
cheers from Turkey... The other reason that Peter did not mention for the "policy change" is that Erdogan goverment is desperate to find financial sources, as the country is in a big deficit with inflation rate soaring and Erdogan is taking his chances. it is all about money, nothing else nowadays.
@Van_frederick
@Van_frederick Жыл бұрын
agreed
@rick6672
@rick6672 Жыл бұрын
And the massive deadly attack by the Earthquake.
@scytheio1879
@scytheio1879 Жыл бұрын
Is probably a more local factor.
@Leftatalbuquerque
@Leftatalbuquerque Жыл бұрын
It's also about Religion. God has special people that he loves more than others, you know.
@katzensindweich3505
@katzensindweich3505 Жыл бұрын
​@@Leftatalbuquerquegood one 😂
@drp2007
@drp2007 Жыл бұрын
Geopolitcs in this part of the World are extremely complicated, thanks for the sidewalk chalk explanation that is detailed and concise.
@sergeant64
@sergeant64 Жыл бұрын
Sweden’s NATO membership is not yet certain. Turkey wants to see the changes made before giving its approval. One of the requirements is to replace the US-style freedom of speech with writing influenced by Sharia law. Normally, constitutional changes take 8-10 years.
@sergeant64
@sergeant64 Жыл бұрын
@@arisnotheles Erdoğans power-base is resting on 2 far more Islamic parties. They have raised objections. Let’s se how this plays out and how much Sharia we needs imbed in the constitution. The question is in the long run… should we be influenced by Russians or by Islam.
@amc3463
@amc3463 Жыл бұрын
NATO IS A JOKE
@bigcity2085
@bigcity2085 Жыл бұрын
Turkey isn't east nor west nor mid east. They are true "middle". They are the bubble in a level. They play everything against the middle , and do what's best to keep that balance, and not lean too east nor west, and they always seem to get what's best for them and stay out of trouble, and at least keep the peace in their region....because war is all around them. It's quite a balancing act. Just wish they were less authoritarian , and got along with the darn Kurds. While Iraq was a total mess, the Kurds in northern Iraq had everything running smooth in their little part, and they were good allies....and we turned on them, which was really - rotten.
@PlessyFerguson1
@PlessyFerguson1 Жыл бұрын
I subscribed. I have watched a few, but this guy can Talk Moon & Mars, rocks & hike as if A person must Fly and pretend he is Hiker Emeritus at Standford. Certainly he can convince you he has, Iron meteorites oxidative status, etc., I just want for once, for this Genius Einstein, Galileo, Newton, of our time, to make any F! Sense on Politics. Not even Geopolitics! He is no Euclid, not Copernicus, either.
@BobfromSydney
@BobfromSydney Жыл бұрын
Other KZfaqrs with perfect sound "Really sorry about the bad sound, I've switched to the different mic this week" Peter Zeihan on a mountain "There is a growing demographic trend of KZfaq audiences seeking meaningful analysis of geopolitical issues. Due to the constrained supply of good information on KZfaq, there is a power inbalance which allows me to rape your ears with this terrible sound quality and there is nowhere else you can go."
@timwinterhalter5233
@timwinterhalter5233 Жыл бұрын
so fucking based its beyond words
@shawnmurray9964
@shawnmurray9964 Жыл бұрын
Lol
@Binkophile
@Binkophile Жыл бұрын
I wish I was Peter's travel agent. I could retire 20 years early 😀
@george2113
@george2113 Жыл бұрын
Travel agents are the most AI vulnerable jobs there are
@countryrunner19
@countryrunner19 Жыл бұрын
Holy shit can you imagine? On an amazing trail hearing some of the best takes on the current geopolitical landscape!
@countryrunner19
@countryrunner19 Жыл бұрын
​@@george2113didn't get it
@gginpar
@gginpar Жыл бұрын
Or his official sunglasses provider....
@jnhopwood
@jnhopwood Жыл бұрын
Peter lives in Colorado. The trail he is on is a short drive from his home. However the trail is 5 h25min round trip.
@coopernoble6139
@coopernoble6139 Жыл бұрын
Other youtubers: “lets record in a well insulated room with adequate sound deadening.” Peter: “yeah, this mountaintop will do nicely!” Love you peter, your stuff is still better than anyone else
@The_Drifter_13
@The_Drifter_13 Жыл бұрын
Two of my favorite things on this channel. Outdoor adventuring and world regional current events.
@samueljohnson7563
@samueljohnson7563 Жыл бұрын
"Hey everyone, Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the crags of the Mt. Doom before I head to Iowa next week. Right now, I'd like to talk about Erdogan."
@thechannelofdannyboy
@thechannelofdannyboy Жыл бұрын
I really like your video content but I think the wind is affecting your audio quite a bit
@russellhltn1396
@russellhltn1396 Жыл бұрын
Really needs a windscreen, or at least turn on the low cut filter on the camera.
@davidclive701
@davidclive701 Жыл бұрын
……and not the first time - this great content is regularly affected by the wind on these Colorado walks
@Justin-gv3lp
@Justin-gv3lp Жыл бұрын
Finally someone said it the last half dozen videos have been borderline unwatchable
@justanaverageguy912
@justanaverageguy912 Жыл бұрын
@@Justin-gv3lpok, i agree that it should be fixed, but "borderline unwatchable" is a bit much.
@thechannelofdannyboy
@thechannelofdannyboy Жыл бұрын
@@ConsiderFirstCnE Yes, but sometimes I want to listen while working on my computer haha
@mariannerischl3894
@mariannerischl3894 Жыл бұрын
I look for update every morning. Appreciate your concise and straightforward assessment. It is refreshing and empowering. Reporting from outside is a nice touch!
@cindymccarthy1950
@cindymccarthy1950 Жыл бұрын
Except the wing on this broadcast was difficult to listen to. Normally never an issue.
@cindymccarthy1950
@cindymccarthy1950 Жыл бұрын
Wind!!
@leslieleslie5849
@leslieleslie5849 Жыл бұрын
Just found you and am enjoying your content! Fabulous way to break down complicated issues.
@telluwide5553
@telluwide5553 Жыл бұрын
Unbelievable! You said more in an 8 minute clear and concise video clip about the complex issue that is always Turkey, than the hours of reports from various news outlets, both online and offline, have since February 2022. Well done!
@samorpeterenpretene9184
@samorpeterenpretene9184 Жыл бұрын
He reads a script
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@@samorpeterenpretene9184 It's not the best script but it isn't a bad script either. The OP is right, more information was packed into this script than you'd get by watching the mainstream media talk about this issue in 10 years.
@samorpeterenpretene9184
@samorpeterenpretene9184 11 ай бұрын
You think he writes the script ??? Come on dude you can’t be this naive. Look up the Duran with Alex and Alexander
@woodchip2782
@woodchip2782 Жыл бұрын
Clear and concise, stuff you’ll never see on biased newscasts. Thank you!
@brownbear992
@brownbear992 Жыл бұрын
It'd be a lot clearer if the audio wasn't shit...
@pyrioncelendil
@pyrioncelendil Жыл бұрын
And it's not just Turkey that's reevaluated its geopolitical goals. To get to this point, the US, Canada, and EU will have broadly reassessed their geopolitical goals if they're willing to make amends with Turkey to the degree that F-16's are back on the table. To that end, Armenia's gotta be kicking themselves both for soliciting protection from the Russians and for not trying to sue for peace vis a vis the US and EU back when the US and EU may have been inclined to yank Armenia away from Russia and at the same time counter Turkish regional aims. It's too late for that now, that ship has sailed; the US, Canada, and EU have broadly decided that anyone siding with Russia at this point, two years and change into their war of genocide in Ukraine, for whatever reason, is persona non grata.
@tunatangor8835
@tunatangor8835 Жыл бұрын
Armenia lost decades without trying to build peace with Azerbaijan and as a result Turkey. Both the Turks of Azerbaijan and Turkey are from the Oguz branch of the Turkish family. They have more in common then say to the Turkic people of Turkmenistan etc. If Armenia had solved its border problem with Azerbaijan then there would have been no need for a war in Karabakh 2 years ago. As long as Armenia cannot come to a peace deal with Azerbaijan the likelihood of a new war is very high.
@devalapar7878
@devalapar7878 Жыл бұрын
@@tunatangor8835 Turkmenistan is also from the Oguz branch ^^ I personally wished they would all get along. The region has a common culture. If they worked together, they could become very successful. But everyone is an enemy of someone else and that hurts the economy, research, simply everything. I wished they would form something like a united nations of anatolia.
@kaanboztepe
@kaanboztepe Жыл бұрын
Azerbaijan sells the hydrocarbons to EU that they are no longer buying from russia. good luck to armenia getting anything from EU
@tunatangor8835
@tunatangor8835 Жыл бұрын
@@devalapar7878 Turkmenistan is part of the eastern Oguz branch that is correct.
@danno111909
@danno111909 Жыл бұрын
Armenia could never be "yanked" away from Russia. Remember what happened to Georgia in 2008, when they hoped to be "yanked" away? The US and EU pretend to care, but we all know they cannot have power in that area. Unfortunately, Armenia is stuck with Russia whether it wants to be or not. Maybe that could change in the future, but Armenia is stuck in the CSTO, and the CSTO does not provide any help. Look at what is going on in Lachin. Fake protestors stopping aid to Artsakh, and where is the CSTO.
@sebastian7424
@sebastian7424 Жыл бұрын
Just want to say thank you for these clips. I enjoy watching these in the morning as I make my coffee. Great primer for getting the mind awake.
@eduardorocha2345
@eduardorocha2345 Жыл бұрын
Loved the subtitles!! Thank you, Peter!
@J.C.Dent0n
@J.C.Dent0n Жыл бұрын
Thank goodness for subtitles
@scottn2046
@scottn2046 Жыл бұрын
There's a bigger balancing act here, the decline of the Soviet was a massive opening for Turkey, particularly Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia, they don't want a resurgent Russia locking those down again, meanwhile in multiple conflicts they've been on the opposite side to Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and Libya, throw in Russia being an extistential threat for most of the last 300 years, the Turks don't particularly want Russia to win in Ukraine. At the same time, the Turks don't want their regional rival Iran to get nukes but the Turkish State own Halk Bank was caught red handed sanctions busting in Iran. There's a sense of a willingness to play both sides, make some money and build bilateral relations, without undermining too much the effect of the sanctions that the rest of the world take care of the final result. Perhaps now there's.a sense of aligning their policy with their desired outcome aligns with the improving relations with Western allies, with economic benefits and maybe even some lucrative contracts for their large military-industrial complex supplying Ukraine on the US/European cheque book. Oh and I'm guessing it's no fun living down wind from the Zaporizha power plant,
@andrewdavis6917
@andrewdavis6917 Жыл бұрын
I am amazed at the info, and amused by the situation (one day young man you will talk to the world all alone from a mountain top..... ) I think you have an amazing life. Thanks for the info, hello from Texas
@Basaltmbl
@Basaltmbl Жыл бұрын
I really like the contextual news and information! Thanks
@stevenescover7251
@stevenescover7251 Жыл бұрын
The other factor is Turkey's economy is struggling. So all of sudden they could be before world financial banks to structure and extend their foreign loans plus domestically people aren't very happy with the present Turkish Administration.
@greendsnow
@greendsnow Жыл бұрын
the administration gets the islamists support, which the West have pumped into Middle East through... what was that... "moderate" islam.
@azizsipahi8332
@azizsipahi8332 9 ай бұрын
Par her şey değildir.Öyle olsaydı ERDOĞAN yeniden seçilmezdi.
@Sean.Vosler
@Sean.Vosler Жыл бұрын
This guy puts the Geo in geopolitics
@elkofdeath
@elkofdeath Жыл бұрын
I'll take these quality vistas even for the hurricane audio they come with.
@SantaBarbaraAlberto
@SantaBarbaraAlberto Жыл бұрын
Interesting explanation about Turkey. Thank you.
@deanfeuer541
@deanfeuer541 Жыл бұрын
Please do something about your audio quality. You are one of a handful of analysts that creates content that I clearly want to hear every word.
@jonathanheatley3508
@jonathanheatley3508 Жыл бұрын
I'm amazed how he can talk so fluently and cogently without any notes or prompts. I looked at his glasses for reflections of notes and only he is reflected. Impressive!
@ffarmchicken
@ffarmchicken Жыл бұрын
Well, he does go all over to do talks about the same thing. Probably had a bit of practice.
@samorpeterenpretene9184
@samorpeterenpretene9184 Жыл бұрын
Or he reads a script
@deanfirnatine7814
@deanfirnatine7814 Жыл бұрын
Turkey also shipped state of the art self propelled artillery to Ukraine just before the NATO meeting, these are the South Korean designed howitzers built in Turkey under license, so South Korea had to sign off on Turkey shipping them to Ukraine, that signals a change both from Turkey and South Korea.
@shazmosushi
@shazmosushi Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the subtitles, really helps given the choppy audio due to the wind
@VictorSneller
@VictorSneller Жыл бұрын
By next year, “Coming to you aboard the International Space Station.”
@AsclepiusIaso
@AsclepiusIaso Жыл бұрын
I do like the subtitles!
@eshaw9826
@eshaw9826 11 ай бұрын
I love the quality and focused conciseness, in the way you package your messages. Thank you for sharing.
@RappingManualYT
@RappingManualYT Жыл бұрын
Peter trying to catch his breath while talking geopolitics on a damn mountain top is such a chad move lol
@pazitor
@pazitor Жыл бұрын
As others have said, "It's the economy, ". Turkey must turn now to the EU to save it from itself. Again.
@E4439Qv5
@E4439Qv5 Жыл бұрын
Turn-key economics
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@Pazitor, what exactly will turning to the EU do for them and their economy? They were well turned to the EU for more than 2 decades in a period where their economy was even worse than it is now. It won't help or make the situation worse.
@mcfluffier
@mcfluffier Жыл бұрын
Leave it to Peter to talk about major subjects on top of a windy mountain.
@godschild6694
@godschild6694 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for subtitles
@simplyamazing880
@simplyamazing880 Жыл бұрын
That was certainly informative. Thanks for the report.
@jjfy6
@jjfy6 Жыл бұрын
Phenomenal analysis as usual
@christophernolan8761
@christophernolan8761 Жыл бұрын
Engaging, informative, concise and free (w ads). This is an example of the threat the internet poses to expensive liberal arts higher education as it is currently practiced today.
Жыл бұрын
Another interesting geostrategist is Stephen Kotkin. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/g5uqaKuGuJrYnYE.html
@B1bombermadness
@B1bombermadness Жыл бұрын
Congratulations on getting over 500k subs! What an accomplishment 👏
@Michaelw777.52
@Michaelw777.52 Жыл бұрын
This was excellent. Thanks for this succinct but very informative video.
@campfireeverything
@campfireeverything Жыл бұрын
I was in Armenia a month ago and saw very clearly the way things are unfolding there -- it is as Peter mentioned. Some travellers told me in the countryside they are even getting big guns ready dug into mounds. Armenia is also trying to befriend Iran but Iran has no reason to assist them, so with so many things stacked against the Armenians they might even just sign off the disputed region rather than lose a totally unwinnable battle and Armenian lives.
@TheHaroGroup
@TheHaroGroup 11 ай бұрын
Yes. Armenia is in deep trouble. The genocidal campaigns of the late 1800s and into 1915 are dangerously close to being repeated.
@knoll9812
@knoll9812 11 ай бұрын
​@@TheHaroGroupreal world Azerbaijan has oik and gas and the sorld wants to jeep them happy. Similar to Saudi getting away with stuff ither countries eould be slspped for. Most radical uslamic terrorism vones from countries where saudi had invested billions in preaching radical uslam. Yemen is straightforward punishing a country for not rolling over and begging.
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@Campfireverthing. Iran has every reason you can possibly think of to assist Armenia. The problem isn't how willing they are, the problem is what can they actually do? As far as signing off, there is nothing for them to sign on or off of. That territory legally speaking is internationally recognized territory, the only way for Armenia to hold it is to physically occupy it. Which they no longer can. Who would have thought that invading your neighbor's internationally recognized territory and ethnically cleansing 800,000 civilians in the 1990s might lead to something bad in the future right?
@user-so5tb1hy8r
@user-so5tb1hy8r Жыл бұрын
Pretty sure Peter just wanders the earth and suddenly decides to film.
@domingo2977
@domingo2977 9 ай бұрын
Thank you for the subtitles 🙏
@rjbxbakers
@rjbxbakers Жыл бұрын
Learn something new every time, thanks Peter
@justanamerican9024
@justanamerican9024 Жыл бұрын
Nations don't have 'friends', nations have interest. Thank you for another insightful video. I look forward to them every day.
@chrise842
@chrise842 Жыл бұрын
Audio is completely messed up
@rorykeegan1895
@rorykeegan1895 Жыл бұрын
Not really, some of the audio is difficult, not all of it ...
@gravypatron
@gravypatron Жыл бұрын
We hope you found a way to cope.
@chrise842
@chrise842 Жыл бұрын
@@gravypatron why is it raining likes?!
@WaterBug46
@WaterBug46 Жыл бұрын
I usually just listen through the day and not watch. So I was a bit confused when I didn’t catch every word and went to my screen thinking it might be an internal BT issue. To my surprise I saw an awe inspiring vista along with script. Thanks Peter for not only educating us but taking us along on your journeys. And now I have to watch.
@dj-te5yj
@dj-te5yj Жыл бұрын
I’ve climbed a number of 14ers in Colorado. I never had the strength to do much other take a few pictures let alone give a geopolitical lecture at the summit. You are the man Peter. You
@aaronliberman9944
@aaronliberman9944 Жыл бұрын
Peter- HUGE fan, but shocked that you didn’t mention Turkey economic crisis and meltdown of Lira to 26.5. Clearly they’re cozying up to rich countries and abandoning the poor for mamon as well.
@E4439Qv5
@E4439Qv5 Жыл бұрын
Don't love the motive, but we'll take the help for containing Russia and getting that grain where it needs to go. I will never forgive Putin for starting this war.
@briandupre1494
@briandupre1494 Жыл бұрын
​@E4439Qv5 LOL not sure he cares 😅
@E4439Qv5
@E4439Qv5 Жыл бұрын
@@briandupre1494 He doesn't. And that's the problem.
@shev1970
@shev1970 Жыл бұрын
One of the more accurate statements in my opinion. Canadians might have a hard time selling to the Turks again as they now make drone cameras locally and the Canadian firm that use to make it is out of business, never mind trust issues 😅
@azizsipahi8332
@azizsipahi8332 9 ай бұрын
Aselsan şirketimiz üretime başlayalı çok oldu.Kameralarımızı kendimiz yapıyoruz zaten:=)
@gooosedog
@gooosedog Жыл бұрын
Consider covering the microphone portion of your phone with a cloth or sock in breezy locations ✌️
@ronoveson2798
@ronoveson2798 Жыл бұрын
Another outstanding video and thank you. Seeing what beautiful locations you choose for the next video is one among many reasons I never miss an episode. I agree that a substantial shift has taken place in Turkey’s foreign relations posture, but I wonder why it was so abrupt. No doubt Turkey periodically re-evaluates their place in Europe and the world, both politically and economically. But what was the intervening catalytic event? Could it have been whatever President Biden said during their private conversation in Vilnius? Because even when countries change their posture, they do so incrementally if at all possible.
@tenorsaxjazz1
@tenorsaxjazz1 Жыл бұрын
A review on Hungary policies and stances please :)
@Hierosir
@Hierosir Жыл бұрын
Very rational. Fair enough. Might not always like it. But understandable from the Turkish position.
@patrickmaddy4611
@patrickmaddy4611 Жыл бұрын
Nice hike. Looks like you filmed it on the outcropping right before you make the right turn up to the final pitch.
@libbydaddy8610
@libbydaddy8610 Жыл бұрын
Alright bud, this proves it - I'm hooked. I apparently will listen carefully, with little agitation, to a broken audio of your geopolitical cogitations. The backgrounds help. Thanks for your insights.
@NoCredits
@NoCredits Жыл бұрын
May I sponsor you a wind muffler attachment thingie? 😂
@krockweeks
@krockweeks Жыл бұрын
Peter is the man... that is all
@chrisburzenski2317
@chrisburzenski2317 Жыл бұрын
Great location, fantastic audio!
@davidclary5104
@davidclary5104 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this invaluable content in these difficult days, Peter.
@tzazosghost8256
@tzazosghost8256 Жыл бұрын
Also to keep in mind , Turkey has financed a massive domestic defence effort
@FkSeditiousChristofascists
@FkSeditiousChristofascists Жыл бұрын
which would likely indicate an offensive posture as they are already a NATO member and have guarantees against being attacked themselves... food for thought.
@azovianace
@azovianace 11 ай бұрын
​@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz Not really. Turks don't view NATO as a security guarantor from outside threats but rather as a guarantee that other NATO countries won't attack Türkiye. Also, in 1974, when Turkish Cypriots were facing a massacre, our NATO "allies" didn't let us use the weapons bought from them. Hence the defence industry.
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@@FkSeditiousChristofascists They themselves don't believe in those guarantees against being attacked themselves. Their domestic defense spending has more to do with them not trusting Nato nations to supply them with arms than it does with them planning an offensive with Nato. They've dealt with enough defense embargos to make them nervous about their defense needs.
@benhill70
@benhill70 Жыл бұрын
This might seem off topic, but I read "Mongol Storm" recently which is a history of the near east including what became Turkey around 1200 CE. It was a really good book and talked constantly about the ever shifting political situations between all the factions in the region. Sounds exactly like what Zeihan is talking about in this video.
@SignalCorps1
@SignalCorps1 Жыл бұрын
AD as in Anno Domini, not CE. That is how time has been defined for millennia. No need to change it.
@ericmaclaurin8525
@ericmaclaurin8525 Жыл бұрын
@@SignalCorps1 It was changed long ago by almost everyone. Changing it back doesn't represent the status quo. That's proven, along with proof that you know I'm right, by your need to explain it.
@41chemist19
@41chemist19 Жыл бұрын
The subtitles are a huge plus. Thank you for taking the time to write those down, the auto generated subtitles aren't great for geopolitical discussion.
@SolaceEasy
@SolaceEasy Жыл бұрын
Hey Peter - Today I climbed Reversed Peak over June Lake Loop East of Yosemite. Class 3 summit block.
@swaggitypigfig8413
@swaggitypigfig8413 Жыл бұрын
Looks like Grain’s back on the menu boys!!!
@chrise842
@chrise842 Жыл бұрын
Nah, seemingly not after the new Crimea bridge attack.
@swaggitypigfig8413
@swaggitypigfig8413 Жыл бұрын
@@chrise842 I'm starving! We ain't had nothing but maggoty grain for three stinking days!
@chrise842
@chrise842 Жыл бұрын
@@swaggitypigfig8413 what?
@alanparsonsfan
@alanparsonsfan Жыл бұрын
Excellent clarification on what I knew to be a regional power, but not very much about it's place in the world. What about the long standing inflation they've been having to deal with?
@alexandermckay8594
@alexandermckay8594 Жыл бұрын
The problem Turkey has always had is that it's influential, not powerful. It's biggest weaknesses is in fuel and food. As a net importer it's at the mercy of the world and as it goes to shit with fuel prices soaring and food shipments becoming sporadic their treasury takes hard hits which their economy can't replace fast enough. This war after the pandemic has just killed them. It's tanked their economy so bad it's going to take a miracle or some very serious bribes from the powerful countries to recover. This is a lot of what's going on in the region is about. What Peter didn't mention but implied is that Turkey is waiting for the US and Europe to cross its palms to get their political wants met.
@george2113
@george2113 Жыл бұрын
A new organization of Atlantic democratic states to replace NATO is overdue!
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@@alexandermckay8594 The fact they consume more than they produce and like you said their lack of hydrocarbon resources are their weakness. I wouldn't put food on that list. They actually export more food than the import. They're food secure, if they shut down all food exports they produce more than enough calories to feed their population.
@alexandermckay8594
@alexandermckay8594 11 ай бұрын
@@williamdavis9562 Yes and no. Not all calories are equal. While Turkey does export food they also import a lot, mainly wheat. Their climate is not ideal for wheat so they focus on stuff that does grow well and they can sell for a higher margin. Ukraine has put a crank into that as that's where they get most of their grain. Iffy supply means higher prices and wouldn't you know it, Turkey, per capita, is one of the largest consumers of bread. It's a major staple of their diet so rising prices are very bad.
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@@alexandermckay8594 You'd have to look into the details of that. The wheat they import is not for domestic consumption. One of Turkey's industries is refining wheat into finished products like Spagetti for export. If all the wheat exports to Turkey stopped, it would have no effect on local food consumption. It would however destroy their wheat refining companies. Yes Turkey consumes a lot of bread but all of the wheat used for domestic consumption of bread is from domestic wheat. This specific topic is something I was curious about not too long ago and did a deep dive to see if Turkey was food insecure or not. Their biggest issue would be meat, animal husbandry in that nation isn't efficient at all and already high meat prices would skyrocket if they weren't able to import cows. Other than paying higher prices for meat, that nation is not food insecure. They grow more than enough to feed their population. They are nowhere near as food secure as America, Australia, Russia or Canada. But if world war broke out and all international shipping stopped they wouldn't starve to death like many nations.
@channing76
@channing76 Жыл бұрын
What a hike that was
@rootoftheproblem
@rootoftheproblem Жыл бұрын
Peter, love the videos. Could you find some sort of buffered microphone for the windy spots? I bet they have a phone attachment or something...
@matyaksenton4301
@matyaksenton4301 Жыл бұрын
It's always nice to see Putin fans getting an egg on their face.
@mannyespinola9228
@mannyespinola9228 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this video
@neubianx
@neubianx Жыл бұрын
@ZeihanonGeopolitics noise/wind cancelling does a pretty good job, but when wind is intense, it starts cutting out like there's a bad connection. Physical mic sock may help if not already in use.
@Nick-bh5bk
@Nick-bh5bk Жыл бұрын
Either these videos are shot out of order or Peter has a secret twin. Peter's next book: "The geopolitical significance of the world's hiking trails."
@truckinconvoy7312
@truckinconvoy7312 Жыл бұрын
Global Politrecs and Hiking Prices, by Peter Zeihan typing from a mountaintop somewhere
@shanytopper2422
@shanytopper2422 Жыл бұрын
The big question is, now that Russia withdrawn from the grain deal, how would Turkey (which made a lot of money thanks to this deal) are going to react. Are we going to finally see the starts of Istanbul closed to Russian ships?
@devalapar7878
@devalapar7878 Жыл бұрын
How did Turkey make a lot of money? The grain ships were always going through the Turkish straits. But since the war, there are a lot less ships. Money didn't play a role here. I hate this passive-aggressive attitude towards Turkey.
@shanytopper2422
@shanytopper2422 Жыл бұрын
@devalapar7878 What do you mean? As long as the deal continued, the good kept on passing through Turkey, and Turkey made money of it. If the deal stops, the shipments stops, and this means less money for Turkey.
@sktt1488
@sktt1488 Жыл бұрын
@@shanytopper2422 unlike sues Canal boshporus doesn't really bring money because of montreux convention.
@shanytopper2422
@shanytopper2422 Жыл бұрын
@sktt1488 Turkey makes 4.48$ for every metric ton that passes through the staits. It makes a huge amount of money and is one of the major sources of income to Turkey. It is true that because of the convension, they can't close the staits (unless in an official war), nor can they make one-sided decisions without agreement from the other parties, but they are allowed to stop all ships from both sides of a war from moving through the staits. As Russia now basically just said that no Ukranian vehicle will be abke to leave, this means that Turkey can and should block both sides of the conflict.
@ClownCarCoup
@ClownCarCoup Жыл бұрын
In October, Turkey increased the cost of transit through the Black Sea Straits by 5 times. The increase in passage prices was explained by the increase in inflation globally and the decrease in the cost of gold. According to local media, Turkey’s annual income from the passage through the straits will increase from $40 million to $200 million.
@c128stuff
@c128stuff Жыл бұрын
Interesting points, thanks for sharing.
@user-vh5qc2ny9w
@user-vh5qc2ny9w Жыл бұрын
I love you Peter. Thank you for the information you are providing us. Clarity! You are the best of the best❤
@TheFbiFilesRepeat
@TheFbiFilesRepeat Жыл бұрын
Fix your mic dude. Unwatchable.
@smoothe14
@smoothe14 Жыл бұрын
Can someone buy this man a proper mic
@jameswheeler5260
@jameswheeler5260 Жыл бұрын
Mic's fine, he needs a windscreen.
@investigator9707
@investigator9707 Жыл бұрын
Last few episodes it started, before it was way better, even in windy places. It's the mic, hope he gets a new one soon
@Penta_Penguin_237
@Penta_Penguin_237 Жыл бұрын
Totally agree.
@JohnnyAmerique
@JohnnyAmerique Жыл бұрын
Waiting for the video where Peter nonchalantly announces that the US Space Force has operationalised teleportation and that’s why he’s on a different continent every few hours.
@CJusticeHappen21
@CJusticeHappen21 Жыл бұрын
I'm glad that we're getting somewhere
@mdturnerinoz
@mdturnerinoz Жыл бұрын
The audio was MISERABLE!
@hasanchoudhury5401
@hasanchoudhury5401 Жыл бұрын
Excellent topic! Turkey is a major power in the Eurasian landmass with strong ethnic connections with the “Turkish speaking Stan countries” and the Muslims in the Arab and non Arab countries both Sunni and Shia countries! With modern technology military industrial manufacturing production. USA and Turkey can be very useful partners in Western Asia just like Australia and Japan in the Pacific region.
@georgewashington1621
@georgewashington1621 Жыл бұрын
that feel when listening to Peter while hiking the Pirin mountains of Bulgarian town Bansko
@marcusdekens3291
@marcusdekens3291 Жыл бұрын
I much enjoy your insight on international relations! Also your ever-changing beautiful background. But please get a dead cat to cover your mic when its windy. Looking forward to the next video. Take care!
@AliceinWonderlandzz
@AliceinWonderlandzz Жыл бұрын
What's your take on the Truks or NaTO providing convoy escorts for the grain ships? Grain stocks are high right now but as shortages grow I could see it. Black Sea fleet can be wiped in one exchage.
@JinKee
@JinKee Жыл бұрын
hmm. nato ship escorts grain ship, and the russians intercept the convoy. the russians say “prepare to be boarded.” the nato ship says “russian warship, snake island yourself” they fire their weapons. we fire ours. the world ends 30 minutes later. and then six months later, the Posideon Status-6 robot torpedo surfaces in the ruins of san francisco harbour and blows up just so it can feel useful.
@slavakotelnikov2440
@slavakotelnikov2440 Жыл бұрын
That's has nuclear consequences that neither you nor I will survive
@devalapar7878
@devalapar7878 Жыл бұрын
@@slavakotelnikov2440 Turkey has no nukes.
Жыл бұрын
Better navies from the destination of the grain vessels (Egypt, Turkey, China, Bangladesh, Algeria, Saudi Arabia...) Too many for Russia to mess with.
@slavakotelnikov2440
@slavakotelnikov2440 Жыл бұрын
@ Russia has destroyed grain dockers and slios in Odessa last night crippling Ukraine grain export capabilities. There is nothing to mess about with navies you mentioned. A fine grain from lovely Oklahoma will be sold you at the new elevated price, making Uncle Sam farmers extremely happy. Isn't it what the US wanted - be the main supplier of natural gas and food for all its lapdog countries, sorry, allies. Rejoice, you have no choice.
@hccdgvvfccdgn993
@hccdgvvfccdgn993 Жыл бұрын
Nice of Peter to add subtitles since his microphone keep dying
@jasonives6995
@jasonives6995 11 ай бұрын
Thanks for the subtitles- audio was terrible. Always interesting to hear your voice
@zmdeadelius
@zmdeadelius Жыл бұрын
Nice catch on the subtitles, team Zeihan.
@smileygladhands
@smileygladhands Жыл бұрын
Please don't end up as a Missing 411 story. Stay safe on those hikes and please carry an emergency locator beacon (and bear spray and/or a pew pew). We can't lose you Peter. I don't always agree with you, but you are entertaining.
@george2113
@george2113 Жыл бұрын
It's the two legged predator that's the problem
@kevinkarsnia109
@kevinkarsnia109 Жыл бұрын
@@george2113Bigfoot?
@george2113
@george2113 Жыл бұрын
@@kevinkarsnia109 if you are concerned, why not
@glennmorrissey5309
@glennmorrissey5309 Жыл бұрын
Another great analysis Peter!
@wardsdotnet
@wardsdotnet Жыл бұрын
Are the audio problems because you're using a starlink? Or you need a better wind thingy for the mic?
@davocc2405
@davocc2405 Жыл бұрын
Smart man - getting up to the snowfields in THIS heat, wonder what the ambient temperature is up there with all the sunlight reflection? Sorry never been to those locales myself so I've no frame of reference personally.
@CESmith
@CESmith Жыл бұрын
Generally speaking the mountain areas are about 20 degrees °F cooler than say Denver is. This week Denver is around 95°F so Peter was around 75°F. Snowfields don't affect the temp too much, unless you decide to have a snowball fight.
@olddirtyb4st3rd
@olddirtyb4st3rd Жыл бұрын
Interesting. Thanks for sharing your assessment. I always knew that Turkey is quite blessed geographically, but I don't know much else concerning its geostrategics.
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
They're blessed and cursed at the same time with their geography. I doubt it's fun where every single one of your neighbors except one has been at war in the past 10 years. That is like walking through a minefield. Ukraine-war. now Russia-war. now Azerbaijan, Armenia-war 2020 Georgia-war 2008 Iraq-war 2003-god knows when Syria-war 2011-god knows when It's like they're in the middle of a ring of fire hoping it doesn't spill over into their territory. I also don't want to imagine what that would do to an economy if every single one of your neighboring nations is either at war or wrecked by war.
@constellation35
@constellation35 Жыл бұрын
Turkey is gonna gain a lot once Russia loses most of its power, Turkey will be in league with azabaijan to take the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh ,then they will have access to azabaijan energy. Which will fuel the Turkish economy, get rid of dependence on oil from the Middle East and then Turkey will be on other big superpower.
@knoll9812
@knoll9812 11 ай бұрын
Will gain but will not be superpower Superpower needs economic might and global influence. Turkey running economy into ground and little positive influence
@williamdavis9562
@williamdavis9562 11 ай бұрын
@Constellation35. Superpower is a very heavy term my friend. Turkey's geography is nowhere near suited for them to be a "super power" To be a super power you need the ability to project power into every corner of the planet. The Turks can't, nor do they have any intention of doing so. They are well on their way to becoming an extremely powerful regional power though.
@MonikaBardell
@MonikaBardell 11 ай бұрын
Besides all the good info, I love the background ❤. That must be the best youtube background ever 😂👍🏾, for posts about politics
@quietStorm247
@quietStorm247 Жыл бұрын
What an amazing view! Thank you.
@EdPin_
@EdPin_ Жыл бұрын
Peter "Prepper" scouting in search of a proper cave to hide in case of s#it hitting the fan 😉
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