Big Gains! Dealers Market Diary Entry Breakdown on SPY / ES / SPX

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Fatty Trades

Fatty Trades

Жыл бұрын

In this video I recap what I was referring to on Twitter when I was preparing to take the short entry with confirmation from Dealers Market Diary. Here is the original prep post.
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Пікірлер: 16
@KStala
@KStala Жыл бұрын
You are just too good for this game. Move on to quantum physics or something close. What a beast.
@jorgehduque2840
@jorgehduque2840 Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@chris26022
@chris26022 Жыл бұрын
I wish you would do a discord subscription service. you provide quality content day in and day out.
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades Жыл бұрын
Appreciate it! One day I will put something together, especially when I’m able to do it full time and the kids are a little older so I can dedicate the proper time to it 👍
@ChefMKollarik
@ChefMKollarik Жыл бұрын
@@FattyTrades 100% great detail, I'm a subscriber right off the bat
@RichardBaker1
@RichardBaker1 Жыл бұрын
Thanks, it was a good video. I have not used Dealer Market Diary (DMD) before but would like to explore it further. It seems these extra tools can provide some additional "heads up" as to what to expect. How long did it take you to learn the ICT methodology? When did the DMD give you the indication that we would be selling off to close out positions? What does this action suggest will happen on Monday ( If anything)?
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades Жыл бұрын
Thanks! Yes that’s exactly what it is, a heads up for a trade idea. I’ve been using ICT for about a year and I would say I’m still learning, but his teachings have improved my trading by an immense amount. The big one is the paradigm shift from be reactive to the market to predicting where the market will seek liquidity or correct inefficiencies. That concept alone has improved my profitability significantly. You can see the deltas building up throughout the week on DMD. It typically won’t be anything significant on Mondays because the only expirations that exist for Monday are SPY & QQQ 0 DTE’s. We really need a big expiration, typically the 3rd or last Friday of the month or Quarterly OPEX/Quad witching. The last day of the year also leads to big moves. The reality is that you could determine that a move is going to happen based on dates like these, but DMD is nice confirmation on exactly the direction. It can be difficult to gauge strength because it only shows the options market impact, it doesn’t show how many futures/shares will be exited alongside the option de-hedging but the direction is always the same. For instance, the last day of the year showed put dehedging (bull run) but the real move came from profit taking on futures and shares for tax reasons and what not, so it ended up being far larger than what DMD indicated.
@rolandgoodbye-9to597
@rolandgoodbye-9to597 Жыл бұрын
thanks for this great video ! I saw the market take a massive run up today at exactly 3pm... will now subscribe to tradytics with your link... one noob question: even after market close at 4pm, NQ ran up higher and higher..... is this likely due to dealer dehedging as well or is it more likely a different mechanism ?
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades 11 ай бұрын
Sorry for the late reply, hopefully you've found success with their platform since then! Often times when we see NQ continue in the after hours immediately after close it's due to some sort of event like a big earnings beat/miss or some sort of other macro economic event. Lately it's been due to earnings seasons or other "excuses" like the added volatility like the Fitch credit rating. I saw other excuses because based on dealer data and concepts brought to light by ICT, the market was primed to drop regardless, but it seems to piggy back big events like those.
@zain_kolsy
@zain_kolsy Жыл бұрын
For the sell-off end of day on 2/1, the 1m FVGs did not go back and fill, does that indicate profit taking as opposed to MM degedging?
@zain_kolsy
@zain_kolsy Жыл бұрын
Also.. 2/3 DMD looks like it may provide a fun close 👀
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades Жыл бұрын
The end of day sell off on 2/1 happened for two reasons from what I saw. We hit a bearish order block on the daily, created by the up close candles on 8/24 & 8/25 complimented by negative Vanna on SPX @ 4150 (& 4175 to a lesser extent). We did leave behind a lot of inefficiencies so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fill before moving higher. I detailed the notable vanna in this post the night prior of you’re interested: twitter.com/fatty_trades/status/1620783121452122113?s=46&t=ye6J62yFfxwoib-8u_48ZA
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades Жыл бұрын
Yes! Definitely keeping an eye on it 👍
@adaminvests101
@adaminvests101 Жыл бұрын
What forms of order flow analysis do you use ?
@FattyTrades
@FattyTrades Жыл бұрын
I’ve found flow alone to often times be misleading, but I do factor it in. I like starting with net flow as well as real time market net flow, especially when it shows big shifts occurring, converged with price or shows significant divergence. I also really like TradyFlow when it spots OTM 10+ orders on non ETF’s. Live flow is useful for next day plays, especially when you see an unusually large amount of orders hitting an asset with a specific directional bias end of day. It usually gives hints as to what the NY open will look like for that asset. Large amounts of sweeps and other complex orders can also create interest for me. However, if I had to rate flow’s usefulness compared to all the data we have available (excluding news/macro data/or any sort of fundamentals) I would say 1) price (open, high, low, close and time) 2) dealer data, which is technically just flows hedging impact, 3) dark pool data and volume 4) flow data. It’s still an important part of my process for analyzing an asset but I would never rely on flow data alone. I would say it mostly shines at drawing attention to something for further investigation.
@adaminvests101
@adaminvests101 Жыл бұрын
@@FattyTrades interesting, I’ve relied heavily on the tape in my trading as I’m particularly a scalper but I’ve been inclined to learn about dealer hedging in particular. Your videos are a true source of valuable information and I know I’m not alone in saying that. Thanks again for the timely and valuable response !
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